Modelos quantitativos de apoio as decisões: II

O sucesso da aplicação de técnicas de Análise das Decisões como apoio em problemas com um único objetivo predominante abriu caminho para estudos de problemas mais ambiciosos como os de decisões com multicritérios e decisões e de grupo (estes dois tipos utilizam metodologias muito semelhantes). Como evolução natural da Análise das Decisões, resultou a metodologia MAUT (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory). Seu rigorismo teórico torna as aplicações difíceis para um analista menos preparado. Como conseqüência, surgiu a metodologia AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) de utilização extremamente simples. A crítica ao AHP veio da escola européia que criou uma série de métodos conhecidos pela abreviação comum: MCDA (Multicriteria Decision Aid).

Estimating the most important criteria for hatching eggs as function of broiler breeders age

This research aimed to compare two female broiler breeder ages during the incubation period regarding management using the Analytic Hierarchy Process method (AHP). This method is characterized by the possibility of analyzing a multicriteria problem and assists a decision making. This study was carried out on a commercial hatchery located in São Paulo, Brazil. Two ages of broiler breeder (42 and 56 weeks) were compared relative to production rate. Production index data were the same in both ages and were submitted to multicriteria decision analysis using the AHP method. The results indicate that broiler breeders of 42 weeks presented better performance than those of 56 week-old. The setter phase (incubation) is more critical than the hatcher. The AHP method was efficient for this analysis and can serve as a methodological basis for future studies to improve the hatchability of broilers eggs.

The efficiency of different estimation methods of hydro-physical limits

The soil water available to crops is defined by specific values of water potential limits. Underlying the estimation of hydro-physical limits, identified as permanent wilting point (PWP) and field capacity (FC), is the selection of a suitable method based on a multi-criteria analysis that is not always clear and defined. In this kind of analysis, the time required for measurements must be taken into consideration as well as other external measurement factors, e.g., the reliability and suitability of the study area, measurement uncertainty, cost, effort and labour invested. In this paper, the efficiency of different methods for determining hydro-physical limits is evaluated by using indices that allow for the calculation of efficiency in terms of effort and cost. The analysis evaluates both direct determination methods (pressure plate - PP and water activity meter - WAM) and indirect estimation methods (pedotransfer functions - PTFs). The PTFs must be validated for the area of interest before use, but the time and cost associated with this validation are not included in the cost of analysis. Compared to the other methods, the combined use of PP and WAM to determine hydro-physical limits differs significantly in time and cost required and quality of information. For direct methods, increasing sample size significantly reduces cost and time. This paper assesses the effectiveness of combining a general analysis based on efficiency indices and more specific analyses based on the different influencing factors, which were considered separately so as not to mask potential benefits or drawbacks that are not evidenced in efficiency estimation.

Decision criteria for optimizing postemergence johnsongrass control in soybean crops in Argentina

Field studies were established in Zavalla and Oliveros, Argentina, during four years in order to optimize Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers.) chemical control by means of the thermal calendar model in comparison with other criteria (weed height or days after sowing). The effect of three application dates of postemergence herbicides was determined by visual control, density of tillers originated from rhizome bud regrowth, and from crown and shoot bud regrowth, and soybean yield. Following the thermal calendar model criterion, applications during the second date afforded the best control. Weed height for the first date showed little variability between experiments but was highly variable in the second and third application dates, achieving in some cases values greater than 120 cm. For all years, no significant differences were detected for crop yield between the first and second application dates, and yields were always lower for the third date. The greatest rhizome bud regrowth was observed for the earliest application date and the highest crown and shoot bud regrowth was determined for the last application date. Parameters associated with control efficiency showed the best behaviour for the second date. However, plant height at this moment may interfere with herbicide application and the variability exhibited by this parameter highlights the risk of determining control timing using only one decision criterion.

UN Security Council decision-making: testing the bribery hypothesis

Liberal-Institutionalism and Structural Realism expectations about international organizations are confronted by looking at if and how US-controlled international aid is granted, and particularly if it is related or not to political affinity and to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) non-permanent membership. A preliminary assessment suggests that these relations only hold for the period of the Cold War, and, even then, only when UNSC non-permanent membership is in years in which the Security Council was deemed very important.

A multicriteria model to assess tractors used in family agriculture

In recent years, public policy has been offering subsidized credit for machine purchase to family farmers. However, there is no methodological procedure to select a suitable tractor for these farmers' situation. In this way, we aimed to develop a selection model for smallholder farmers from Pelotas city region in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Building a multicriteria model to aid decisions is divided into three main stages: structuring stage (identifying stakeholders, decisional context and model creation), evaluation stage (stakeholder preference quantification) and recommendation stage (choice selection). The Multicriteria method is able to identify and value the criteria used in tractor selection by regional family farmers. Six main evaluation areas were identified: operational cost (weight 0.20), purchase cost (weight 0.22), maintainability (weight 0.10), tractor capacity (weight 0.26), ergonomics (weight 0.14) and safety (weight 0.08). The best-rated tractor model (14.7 kW rated power) also was the one purchased by 53.3% of local families.

Criteria for prediction of metastatic axillary lymph nodes in early-stage breast cancer

PURPOSE: To estimate the likelihood of axillary lymph node involvement for patients with early-stage breast cancer, based on a variety of clinical and pathological factors. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was done in hospital databases from 1999 to 2007. Two hundred thirty-nine patients were diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer. Predictive factors, such as patient age, tumor size, lymphovascular invasion, histological grade and immunohistochemical subtype were analyzed to identify variables that may be associated with axillary lymph node metastasis. RESULTS: Patients with tumors that are negative for estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and HER2 had approximately a 90% lower chance of developing lymph node metastasis than those with luminal A tumors (e.g., ER+ and/or PR+ and HER2-) - Odds Ratio: 0.11; 95% confidence interval: 0.01-0.88; p=0.01. Furthermore, the risk for lymph node metastasis of luminal A tumors seemed to decrease as patient age increased, and it was directly correlated with tumor size. CONCLUSION: The molecular classification of early-stage breast cancer using immunohistochemistry may help predicting the probability of developing axillary lymph node metastasis. Further studies are needed to optimize predictions for nodal involvement, with the aim of aiding the decision-making process for breast cancer treatment.