Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

Population Dynamics Modeling of Arapaima gigas

Pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) has been of the most important natural fishing resources of the Amazon region. Due to its economic importance, and the necessity to preserve the species hand, field research concerning the habits and behavior of the pirarucu has been increasing for the last 20 years. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model for the pirarucu population dynamics considering the species peculiarities, particularly the male parental care over the offspring. The solution of the dynamical systems indicates three possible equilibrium points for the population. The first corresponds to extinction; the third corresponds to a stable population close to the environmental carrying capacity. The second corresponds to an unstable equilibrium located between extinction and full use of the carrying capacity. It is shown that lack of males’ parental care closes the gap between the point corresponding to the unstable equilibrium and the point of stable non-trivial equilibrium. If guarding failure reaches a critical point the two points coincide and the population tends irreversibly to extinction. If some event tends to destabilize the population equilibrium, as for instance inadequate parental care, the model responds in such a way as to restore the trajectory towards the stable equilibrium point avoiding the route to extinction. The parameters introduced to solve the system of equations are partially derived from limited but reliable field data collected at the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR) in the Brazilian Amazonian Region.

A New Use for the Amplatzer Duct Occluder Device

We report a case in which the Amplatzer device for percutaneous occlusion of ductus arteriosus was successfully used for occluding a large systemic-pulmonary collateral vessel in a patient who had previously undergone surgery for correction of pulmonary atresia and ventricular septal defect (Rastelli technique), and was awaiting the change of a cardiac tube. In the first attempt, the device embolized to the distal pulmonary bed and, after being rescued with a Bitome, it was appropriately repositioned with no complications and with total occlusion of the vessel.

Assessment of the DIXTAL DX-2710 Automated Oscillometric Device for Blood Pressure Measurement with the Validation Protocols of the British Hypertension Society (BHS) and the Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation (AAMI)

OBJECTIVE: To assess the Dixtal DX2710 automated oscillometric device used for blood pressure measurement according to the protocols of the BHS and the AAMI. METHODS: Three blood pressure measurements were taken in 94 patients (53 females 15 to 80 years). The measurements were taken randomly by 2 observers trained to measure blood pressure with a mercury column device connected with an automated device. The device was classified according to the protocols of the BHS and AAMI. RESULT: The mean of blood pressure levels obtained by the observers was 148±38/93±25 mmHg and that obtained with the device was 148±37/89±26 mmHg. Considering the differences between the measurements obtained by the observer and those obtained with the automated device according to the criteria of the BHS, the following classification was adopted: "A" for systolic pressure (69% of the differences < 5; 90% < 10; and 97% < 15 mmHg); and "B" for diastolic pressure (63% of the differences < 5; 83% < 10; and 93% < 15 mmHg). The mean and standard deviation of the differences were 0±6.27 mmHg for systolic pressure and 3.82±6.21 mmHg for diastolic pressure. CONCLUSION: The Dixtal DX2710 device was approved according to the international recommendations.

Focused Cardiac Ultrasound Using a Pocket-Size Device in the Emergency Room

Background:Cardiovascular urgencies are frequent reasons for seeking medical care. Prompt and accurate medical diagnosis is critical to reduce the morbidity and mortality of these conditions.Objective:To evaluate the use of a pocket-size echocardiography in addition to clinical history and physical exam in a tertiary medical emergency care.Methods:One hundred adult patients without known cardiac or lung diseases who sought emergency care with cardiac complaints were included. Patients with ischemic changes in the electrocardiography or fever were excluded. A focused echocardiography with GE Vscan equipment was performed after the initial evaluation in the emergency room. Cardiac chambers dimensions, left and right ventricular systolic function, intracardiac flows with color, pericardium, and aorta were evaluated.Results:The mean age was 61 ± 17 years old. The patient complaint was chest pain in 51 patients, dyspnea in 32 patients, arrhythmia to evaluate the left ventricular function in ten patients, hypotension/dizziness in five patients and edema in one patient. In 28 patients, the focused echocardiography allowed to confirm the initial diagnosis: 19 patients with heart failure, five with acute coronary syndrome, two with pulmonary embolism and two patients with cardiac tamponade. In 17 patients, the echocardiography changed the diagnosis: ten with suspicious of heart failure, two with pulmonary embolism suspicious, two with hypotension without cause, one suspicious of acute coronary syndrome, one of cardiac tamponade and one of aortic dissection.Conclusion:The focused echocardiography with pocket-size equipment in the emergency care may allow a prompt diagnosis and, consequently, an earlier initiation of the therapy.

Modeling AIDS vaccines: the cellular level

This paper discuses current strategies for the development of AIDS vaccines wich allow immunzation to disturb the natural course of HIV at different detailed stages of its life cycle. Mathematical models describing the main biological phenomena (i.e. virus and vaccine induced T4 cell growth; virus and vaccine induced activation latently infected T4 cells; incremental changes immune response as infection progress; antibody dependent enhancement and neutralization of infection) and allowing for different vaccination strategies serve as a backgroud for computer simulations. The mathematical models reproduce updated information on the behavior of immune cells, antibody concentrations and free viruses. The results point to some controversial outcomes of an AIDS vaccine such as an early increase in virus concentration among vaccinated when compared to nonvaccinated individuals.

The stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity on the schistosomiasis transmission modeling - the sensitivity Analysis

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed.

Molecular Modeling Approaches for Determining Gene Function: application to a Putative Poly-A Binding Protein from Leishmania amazonensis (LaPABP)

The great expansion in the number of genome sequencing projects has revealed the importance of computational methods to speed up the characterization of unknown genes. These studies have been improved by the use of three dimensional information from the predicted proteins generated by molecular modeling techniques. In this work, we disclose the structure-function relationship of a gene product from Leishmania amazonensis by applying molecular modeling and bioinformatics techniques. The analyzed sequence encodes a 159 aminoacids polypeptide (estimated 18 kDa) and was denoted LaPABP for its high homology with poly-A binding proteins from trypanosomatids. The domain structure, clustering analysis and a three dimensional model of LaPABP, basically obtained by homology modeling on the structure of the human poly-A binding protein, are described. Based on the analysis of the electrostatic potential mapped on the model's surface and conservation of intramolecular contacts responsible for folding stabilization we hypothesize that this protein may have less avidity to RNA than it's L. major counterpart but still account for a significant functional activity in the parasite. The model obtained will help in the design of mutagenesis experiments aimed to elucidate the mechanism of gene expression in trypanosomatids and serve as a starting point for its exploration as a potential source of targets for a rational chemotherapy.

Field trials of an improved cost-effective device for detecting peridomestic populations of Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) in rural Argentina

An improved device for detecting peridomestic Triatoma infestans consisting of one-liter recycled Tetra Brik milk boxes with a central structure was tested using a matched-pair study design in two rural areas in Argentina. In Olta (La Rioja), the boxes were installed beneath the thatched roofs and on the vertical wooden posts of each peridomestic structure. After a 5-month exposure, at least one of the recovered boxes detected 88% of the 24 T. infestans-positive sites, and 86% of the 7 negative sites by timed manual collections at baseline. In Amamá (Santiago del Estero), the boxes were paired with the best performing prototype tested before (shelter unit). After 3 months, some evidence of infestation was detected in 89% (boxes) and 79% (shelters) of 18-19 sites positive by timed collections, whereas 19% and 16% of 32 negative sites were positive, respectively. Neither device differed significantly in the qualitative or quantitative collection of every sign of infestation. The installation site did not modify significantly the boxes' sampling efficiency in both study areas. As the total cost of each box was half as expensive as each shelter unit, the boxes are thus the most cost-effective and easy-to-use tool for detecting peridomestic T. infestans currently available.

Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

Schistosoma mansoni major egg antigen Smp40: molecular modeling and potential immunoreactivity for anti-pathology vaccine development

The pathogenesis of Schistosoma mansoni infection is largely determined by host T-cell mediated immune responses such as the granulomatous response to tissue deposited eggs and subsequent fibrosis. The major egg antigens have a valuable role in desensitizing the CD4+ Th cells that mediate granuloma formation, which may prevent or ameliorate clinical signs of schistosomiasis.S. mansoni major egg antigen Smp40 was expressed and completely purified. It was found that the expressed Smp40 reacts specifically with anti-Smp40 monoclonal antibody in Western blotting. Three-dimensional structure was elucidated based on the similarity of Smp40 with the small heat shock protein coded in the protein database as 1SHS as a template in the molecular modeling. It was figured out that the C-terminal of the Smp40 protein (residues 130 onward) contains two alpha crystallin domains. The fold consists of eight beta strands sandwiched in two sheets forming Greek key. The purified Smp40 was used for in vitro stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells from patients infected with S. mansoni using phytohemagglutinin mitogen as a positive control. The obtained results showed that there is no statistical difference in interferon-g, interleukin (IL)-4 and IL-13 levels obtained with Smp40 stimulation compared with the control group (P > 0.05 for each). On the other hand, there were significant differences after Smp40 stimulation in IL-5 (P = 0.006) and IL-10 levels (P < 0.001) compared with the control group. Gaining the knowledge by reviewing the literature, it was found that the overall pattern of cytokine profile obtained with Smp40 stimulation is reported to be associated with reduced collagen deposition, decreased fibrosis, and granuloma formation inhibition. This may reflect its future prospect as a leading anti-pathology schistosomal vaccine candidate.

A new miracidia hatching device for diagnosing schistosomiasis

It is still imperative to develop a parasitological technique highly sensitive for diagnosing schistosomiasis in epidemiological and individual surveys. A simple and cheap hatching device with a collecting container was manufactured and tested under experimental conditions. Twelve Kato-Katz slides were performed as golden standard for comparison. Quantitative results can be carried out by counting miracidia in a plate and parasite load can be calculated (miracidia/gram of feces). Statistically significant values were higher in the hatching test. More sensitive results, with statistical significance, were achieved using 1.5 g of feces (which corresponds to 36 Kato-Katz slides) than by using the Kato-Katz method. Advantages of this technique and its limitations are presented.

Modeling water movement in horizontal columns using fractal theory

Fractal mathematics has been used to characterize water and solute transport in porous media and also to characterize and simulate porous media properties. The objective of this study was to evaluate the correlation between the soil infiltration parameters sorptivity (S) and time exponent (n) and the parameters dimension (D) and the Hurst exponent (H). For this purpose, ten horizontal columns with pure (either clay or loam) and heterogeneous porous media (clay and loam distributed in layers in the column) were simulated following the distribution of a deterministic Cantor Bar with fractal dimension H" 0.63. Horizontal water infiltration experiments were then simulated using Hydrus 2D software. The sorptivity (S) and time exponent (n) parameters of the Philip equation were estimated for each simulation, using the nonlinear regression procedure of the statistical software package SAS®. Sorptivity increased in the columns with the loam content, which was attributed to the relation of S with the capillary radius. The time exponent estimated by nonlinear regression was found to be less than the traditional value of 0.5. The fractal dimension estimated from the Hurst exponent was 17.5 % lower than the fractal dimension of the Cantor Bar used to generate the columns.

Numerical modeling of the effect of variation of boundary conditions on vadose zone hydraulic properties

An accurate estimation of hydraulic fluxes in the vadose zone is essential for the prediction of water, nutrient and contaminant transport in natural systems. The objective of this study was to simulate the effect of variation of boundary conditions on the estimation of hydraulic properties (i.e. water content, effective unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and hydraulic flux) in a one-dimensional unsaturated flow model domain. Unsaturated one-dimensional vertical water flow was simulated in a pure phase clay loam profile and in clay loam interlayered with silt loam distributed according to the third iteration of the Cantor Bar fractal object Simulations were performed using the numerical model Hydrus 1D. The upper and lower pressure heads were varied around average values of -55 cm for the near-saturation range. This resulted in combinations for the upper and lower constant head boundary conditions, respectively, of -50 and -60 cm, -40 and -70 cm, -30 and -80 cm, -20 and -90 cm, and -10 and -100 cm. For the drier range the average head between the upper and lower boundary conditions was set to -550 cm, resulting in the combinations -500 and -600 cm, -400 and -700 cm, -300 and -800 cm, -200 and -900 cm, and -100 and -1,000 cm, for upper and lower boundary conditions, respectively. There was an increase in water contents, fluxes and hydraulic conductivities with the increase in head difference between boundary conditions. Variation in boundary conditions in the pure phase and interlayered one-dimensional profiles caused significant deviations in fluxes, water contents and hydraulic conductivities compared to the simplest case (a head difference between the upper and lower constant head boundaries of 10 cm in the wetter range and 100 cm in the drier range).