Análisis del credit scoring

El problema de la morosidad está cobrándose una gran importancia en los países desarrollados. En este trabajo realizamos un análisis de la capacidad predictiva de dos modelos paramétricos y uno no paramétrico abordando, en este último, el problema del sobreaprendizaje mediante la validación cruzada que, muy habitualmente, se obvia en este tipo de estudios. Además proponemos la distinción de tres tipos de solicitudes dependiendo de su probabilidad cumplimiento: conceder, no conceder (de forma automática), y dudoso y, por consiguiente, proceder a su estudio manual por parte del personal bancario.

Growth curves of Leishmania braziliensis braziliensis Promastigotes and surface antigen expression before and after adaptation to Schneider's drosophila medium as assessed by anti-Leishmania human sera

Leishmania braziliensis braziliensis(MHOM/BR/75/M2903) was grown in Schneider's Drosophila medium. In one set of experiments promastigotes were already adapted to the medium by means of serial passages whereas in the second cells were grown in a biphasic medium and transfered to the liquid. Growth was more abundant for culture medium adapted cells; degenerate cells in small numbers as well as dead ones were present from day 5 for promastigotes adapted to liquid medium and from day 3 for newly adapted cells. Synthesis of surface antigens differed according to length of cell culture as assessed by the titer of five mucocutaneous leishmaniasis sera on subsequent days. Five days of culture for cells already adapted to the culture medium and 3 days for newly adapted ones were judged to be the best for the preparation of immunofluorescence antigens.

Intrahospital spread of carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a University Hospital in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (CRPA) has been isolated with increasing frequency in Brazilian hospitals. Since June 2003, its detection in a teaching hospital in the city of Florianópolis, Brazil, has increased. This study aimed to investigate the minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC), presence of Metallo-β-lactamase (MβL) and a possible clonal relationship among the isolates. METHODS: The study included 29 CRPA and seven isolates with reduced susceptibility. The MIC was determined by agar-dilution. Detection of MβL was performed by Double Disk Sinergism (DDS) and Combined Disk (CD). The MβL gene was verified by PCR and nucleotide sequence analysis. Epidemiological typing was performed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. RESULTS: Among the 29 carbapenem-resistant isolates, polymyxin B presented 100% susceptibility and piperacillin/tazobactam 96.7%. Seventeen (62%) strains were verified as clonal (A clone) and among these, six isolates indicated phenotypically positive tests for MβL and harbored the blaSPM-1 gene. The first CRPA isolates were unrelated to clone A, harbored blaIMP-16 and were phenotypically positive only by CD. CONCLUSIONS: The spread of a high-level of resistance clone suggests cross transmission as an important dissemination mechanism and has contributed to the increased rate of resistance to carbapenems. This study emphasizes the need for continuous surveillance and improved strategies.

A Possible Role for Rusa Deer (Cervus timorensis russa) and Wild Pigs in Spread of Trypanosoma evansi from Indonesia to Papua New Guinea

Movement of transmigrants and livestock from western Indonesia to southeastern areas of Irian Jaya near the border with Papua New Guinea may pose a risk of introducing Trypanosoma evansi into Papua New Guinea via feral Rusa deer (Cervus timorensis russa) and wild pigs which inhabit these areas in large numbers. Pilot experimental studies were conducted to observe infection in pigs and Rusa deer with a strain of T. evansi isolated in Indonesia. Parasitaemia and signs of clinical disease were monitored each second day for 120 days. Trypanosomes were observed in haematocrit tubes at the plasma-buffy coat interface of jugular blood of deer and pigs on 86% and 37% of sampling occasions respectively. Parasitaemia was at a high level in deer for 35% of the time but for only 11.5% of the time in pigs. Results indicate that both Rusa deer and pigs have a high tolerance for infection with T. evansi. The deer suffered mild anaemia evidenced by a 25% reduction in packed cell volume (PCV) 14 days after infection which coincided with the initial peak in parasitaemia. However, PCV had returned to pre infection values by the end of the experiment. The pigs showed no change in PCV. There were no visual indications of disease in either species and appetite was not noticeably affected. It was concluded that both Rusa deer and pigs were capable reservoir hosts for T. evansi but that Rusa deer, with their more persistent higher levels of parasitaemia, have more potential to spread T. evansi into Papua New Guinea from West Irian than pigs.

Early infection and asymptomatic spread of hepatitis A virus in a public child care center in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: should attending children under two years of age be vaccinated?

A cross-sectional study was conducted in order to identify hepatitis A virus (HAV) serological markers in 418 individuals (mean age, 16.4 years; range, 1 month-80 years) at a public child care center in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, as well as to analyze risk factors and determine circulating genotypes. Serum samples were tested using an enzyme immunoassay. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used to detect and characterize HAV RNA, and sequencing was performed. Anti-HAV antibodies and IgM anti-HAV antibodies were detected, respectively, in 89.5% (374/418) and 10.5% (44/418) of the individuals tested. Acute HAV infection in children was independently correlated with crawling (p < 0.05). In 56.8% (25/44) of the IgM anti-HAV-positive individuals and in 33.3% (5/15) of the IgM anti-HAV-negative individuals presenting clinical symptoms, HAV RNA was detected. Phylogenetic analysis revealed co-circulation of subgenotypes IA and IB in 93.3% (28/30) of the amplified samples. In present study, we verify that 79% (30/38) of children IgM anti-HAV-positive were asymptomatic. In child care centers, this asymptomatic spread is a more serious problem, promoting the infection of young children, who rarely show signs of infection. Therefore, vaccinating children below the age of two might prevent the asymptomatic spread of hepatitis A.

Metallo-β-lactamase-production in meropenem-susceptible Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates: risk for silent spread

The aim of this study was to characterize two metallo-β-lactamases (MBLs)-producing Pseudomonas aeruginosa clinical isolates showing meropenem susceptibility. Antimicrobial susceptibility was assessed by automated testing and Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute agar dilution method. MBL production was investigated by phenotypic tests. Molecular typing was determined by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). MBL-encoding genes, as well as their genetic context, were identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing. The location of blaIMP-16 was determined by plasmid electrophoresis, Southern blot and hybridization. Transcriptional levels of blaIMP-16, mexB, mexD, mexF, mexY, ampC and oprD were determined by semi-quantitative real time PCR. The P. aeruginosa isolates studied, Pa30 and Pa43, showed imipenem and meropenem susceptibility by automated testing. Agar dilution assays confirmed meropenem susceptibility whereas both isolates showed low level of imipenem resistance. Pa30 and Pa43 were phenotypically detected as MBL producers. PFGE revealed their clonal relatedness. blaIMP-16 was identified in both isolates, carried as a single cassette in a class 1 integron that was embedded in a plasmid of about 60-Kb. Pa30 and Pa43 overexpressed MexAB-OprM, MexCD-OprJ and MexXY-OprM efflux systems and showed basal transcriptional levels of ampC and oprD. MBL-producing P. aeruginosa that are not resistant to meropenem may represent a risk for therapeutic failure and act as silent reservoirs of MBL-encoding genes.

History of domestication and spread of Aedes aegypti - A Review

The adaptation of insect vectors of human diseases to breed in human habitats (domestication) is one of the most important phenomena in medical entomology. Considerable data are available on the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti in this regard and here we integrate the available information including genetics, behaviour, morphology, ecology and biogeography of the mosquito, with human history. We emphasise the tremendous amount of variation possessed by Ae. aegypti for virtually all traits considered. Typological thinking needs to be abandoned to reach a realistic and comprehensive understanding of this important vector of yellow fever, dengue and Chikungunya.

Spread of Phlebotominae in temperate climates: province of Córdoba, Argentina

We report the presence of the competent vector for Leishmaniaspp, Migonemyia migonei, and theEvandromyia cortelezzii-sallesi complex south of its known distribution in the central temperate region of Argentina, in the province of Córdoba. The persistence of this phlebotomine in the northern border of the province, its association with a case of cutaneous leishmaniasis, and the new record in the outskirts of the city of Córdoba, the second most populated in the country, strengthens the need for regular vector surveillance and a case detection-sensitive health system in vulnerable regions, even in temperate climates.

Hemoglobin curves during pregnancy before and after fortification of flours with iron

Objective: To assess the level of hemoglobin-Hb during pregnancy before and after fortification of flours with iron. Method: A cross-sectional study with data from 12,119 pregnant women attended at a public prenatal from five macro regions of Brazil. The sample was divided into two groups: Before-fortification (birth before June/2004) and After-fortification (last menstruation after June/2005). Hb curves were compared with national and international references. Polynomial regression models were built, with a significance level of 5%. Results: Although the higher levels of Hb in all gestational months after-fortification, the polynomial regression did not show the fortification effect (p=0.3). Curves in the two groups were above the references in the first trimester, with following decrease and stabilization at the end of pregnancy. Conclusion: Although the fortification effect was not confirmed, the study presents variation of Hb levels during pregnancy, which is important for assistencial practice and evaluation of public policies.


Assessment of pedotransfer functions for estimating soil water retention curves for the amazon region

Knowledge of the soil water retention curve (SWRC) is essential for understanding and modeling hydraulic processes in the soil. However, direct determination of the SWRC is time consuming and costly. In addition, it requires a large number of samples, due to the high spatial and temporal variability of soil hydraulic properties. An alternative is the use of models, called pedotransfer functions (PTFs), which estimate the SWRC from easy-to-measure properties. The aim of this paper was to test the accuracy of 16 point or parametric PTFs reported in the literature on different soils from the south and southeast of the State of Pará, Brazil. The PTFs tested were proposed by Pidgeon (1972), Lal (1979), Aina & Periaswamy (1985), Arruda et al. (1987), Dijkerman (1988), Vereecken et al. (1989), Batjes (1996), van den Berg et al. (1997), Tomasella et al. (2000), Hodnett & Tomasella (2002), Oliveira et al. (2002), and Barros (2010). We used a database that includes soil texture (sand, silt, and clay), bulk density, soil organic carbon, soil pH, cation exchange capacity, and the SWRC. Most of the PTFs tested did not show good performance in estimating the SWRC. The parametric PTFs, however, performed better than the point PTFs in assessing the SWRC in the tested region. Among the parametric PTFs, those proposed by Tomasella et al. (2000) achieved the best accuracy in estimating the empirical parameters of the van Genuchten (1980) model, especially when tested in the top soil layer.

Progress of Asian soybean rust and airborne urediniospores of Phakopsora pachyrhizi in southern Brazil

Asian soybean rust, caused by the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi, was reported at epidemic levels in 2003/2004 and is the main soybean disease in Brazil. The aim of this study was to investigate the spread of Asian soybean rust and to quantify airborne urediniospores in the region of Campo Mourão, Paraná State, Brazil. Three experiments were conducted under field conditions during the 2007/08 and 2008/09 crop seasons. Using the disease gradient method, provided by the application of increasing levels of the fungicide tebuconazole, four Asian soybean rust epidemics at different intensities were obtained in each experiment. To quantify the urediniospores, weathercock-type spore collectors were installed during and between the two crop seasons. Disease progress curves were plotted for each epidemic, and maximum severity was estimated. The curves were fit to the logistic model, which provided higher coefficients of determination and more randomly distributed residuals plotted over time. Analyses of the area under the disease progress curve showed that the largest epidemics occurred in the 2007/2008 crop season and that the progress rates were higher for severity, even among plants protected with the fungicide. The number of urediniospores collected in the air was related to the presence of soybean plants in the cultivated crops. The quantity of urediniospores was also positively correlated to the disease severity and incidence, as well as to cumulative rainfall and favorable days for P. Pachyrhizi infection.