102 resultados para Univariate Analysis box-jenkins methodology


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Findings on the effects of weather on health, especially the effects of ambient temperature on overall morbidity, remain inconsistent. We conducted a time series study to examine the acute effects of meteorological factors (mainly air temperature) on daily hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Zunyi City, China, from January 1, 2007 to November 30, 2009. We used the generalized additive model with penalized splines to analyze hospital outpatient admissions, climatic parameters, and covariate data. Results show that, in Zunyi, air temperature was associated with hospital outpatient admission for CVD. When air temperature was less than 10°C, hospital outpatient admissions for CVD increased 1.07-fold with each increase of 1°C, and when air temperature was more than 10°C, an increase in air temperature by 1°C was associated with a 0.99-fold decrease in hospital outpatient admissions for CVD over the previous year. Our analyses provided statistically significant evidence that in China meteorological factors have adverse effects on the health of the general population. Further research with consistent methodology is needed to clarify the magnitude of these effects and to show which populations and individuals are vulnerable.

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In this work the separation of multicomponent mixtures in counter-current columns with supercritical carbon dioxide has been investigated using a process design methodology. First the separation task must be defined, then phase equilibria experiments are carried out, and the data obtained are correlated with thermodynamic models or empirical functions. Mutual solubilities, Ki-values, and separation factors aij are determined. Based on this data possible operating conditions for further extraction experiments can be determined. Separation analysis using graphical methods are performed to optimize the process parameters. Hydrodynamic experiments are carried out to determine the flow capacity diagram. Extraction experiments in laboratory scale are planned and carried out in order to determine HETP values, to validate the simulation results, and to provide new materials for additional phase equilibria experiments, needed to determine the dependence of separation factors on concetration. Numerical simulation of the separation process and auxiliary systems is carried out to optimize the number of stages, solvent-to-feed ratio, product purity, yield, and energy consumption. Scale-up and cost analysis close the process design. The separation of palmitic acid and (oleic+linoleic) acids from PFAD-Palm Fatty Acids Distillates was used as a case study.

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The Graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GF AAS) was the technique chosen by the inorganic contamination laboratory (INCQ/ FIOCRUZ) to be validated and applied in routine analysis for arsenic detection and quantification. The selectivity, linearity, sensibility, detection, and quantification limits besides accuracy and precision parameters were studied and optimized under Stabilized Temperature Platform Furnace (STPF) conditions. The limit of detection obtained was 0.13 µg.L-1 and the limit of quantification was 1.04 µg.L-1, with an average precision, for total arsenic, less than 15% and an accuracy of 96%. To quantify the chemical species As(III) and As(V), an ion-exchange resin (Dowex 1X8, Cl- form) was used and the physical-chemical parameters were optimized resulting in a recuperation of 98% of As(III) and of 90% of As(V). The method was applied to groundwater, mineral water, and hemodialysis purified water samples. All results obtained were lower than the maximum limit values established by the legal Brazilian regulations, in effect, 50, 10, and 5 µg.L-1 para As total, As(III) e As(V), respectively. All results were statistically evaluated.

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The objectives of this study were to develop the method of isotope analysis to quantify the carbon of C3 photosynthetic cycle in pulpy whole apple juice and to measure the legal limits based on Brazilian legislation in order to identify the beverages that do not conform to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA). This beverage was produced in a laboratory according to the Brazilian law. Pulpy juices adulterated by the addition of sugarcane were also produced. The isotope analyses measured the relative isotope enrichment of the juices, their pulpy fractions (internal standard) and purified sugar. From those results, the quantity of C3 source was estimated by means of the isotope dilution equation. To determine the existence of adulteration in commercial juices, it was necessary to create a legal limit according to the Brazilian law. Three brands of commercial juices were analyzed. One was classified as adulterated. The legal limit enabled to clearly identify the juice that was not in conformity with the Brazilian law. The methodology developed proved efficient for quantifying the carbon of C3 origin in commercial pulpy apple juices.

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This study sought to evaluate the acceptance of "dulce de leche" with coffee and whey. The results were analyzed through response surface, ANOVA, test of averages, histograms, and preference map correlating the global impression data with results of physical, physiochemical and sensory analysis. The response surface methodology, by itself, was not enough to find the best formulation. For ANOVA, test of averages, and preference map it was observed that the consumers' favorite "dulce de leche" were those of formulation 1 (10% whey and 1% coffee) and 2 (30% whey and 1% coffee), followed by formulation 9 (20% whey and 1.25% coffee). The acceptance of samples 1 and 2 was influenced by the higher acceptability in relation to the flavor and for presenting higher pH, L*, and b* values. It was observed that samples 1 and 2 presented higher purchase approval score and higher percentages of responses for the 'ideal' category in terms of sweetness and coffee flavor. It was found that consumers preferred the samples with low concentrations of coffee independent of the concentration of whey thus enabling the use of whey and coffee in the manufacture of dulce de leche, obtaining a new product.

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This study aims to optimize an alternative method of extraction of carrageenan without previous alkaline treatment and ethanol precipitation using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). In order to introduce an innovation in the isolation step, atomization drying was used reducing the time for obtaining dry carrageenan powder. The effects of extraction time and temperature on yield, gel strength, and viscosity were evaluated. Furthermore, the extracted material was submitted to structural analysis, by infrared spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (¹H-NMR), and chemical composition analysis. Results showed that the generated regression models adequately explained the data variation. Carrageenan yield and gel viscosity were influenced only by the extraction temperature. However, gel strength was influenced by both, extraction time and extraction temperature. Optimal extraction conditions were 74 ºC and 4 hours. In these conditions, the carrageenan extract properties determined by the polynomial model were 31.17%, 158.27 g.cm-2, and 29.5 cP for yield, gel strength, and viscosity, respectively, while under the experimental conditions they were 35.8 ± 4.68%, 112.50 ± 4.96 g.cm-2, and 16.01 ± 1.03 cP, respectively. The chemical composition, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and infrared spectroscopy analyses showed that the crude carrageenan extracted is composed mainly of κ-carrageenan.

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The aims of this study were to use the isotope analysis method to quantify the carbon of C3 photosynthetic cycle in commercial apple nectars and to determine the legal limit to identify the beverages that do not conform to the safety standards established by the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply. These beverages (apple nectars) were produced in the laboratory according to the Brazilian legislation. Adulterated nectars were also produced with an amount of pulp juice below the permitted threshold limit value. The δ13C values of the apple nectars and their fractions (pulp and purified sugar) were measured to quantify the C3 source percentage. In order to demonstrate the existence of adulteration, the values found were compared to the limit values established by the Brazilian Law. All commercial apple nectars analyzed were within the legal limits, which enabled to identify the nectars that were in conformity with the Brazilian Law. The isotopic methodology developed proved efficient to quantify the carbon of C3 origin in commercial apple nectars.

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The objective of this study was to analyze retinol equivalent and iron content in different food composition tables and nutritional evaluation software programs. A literature search was conduct to identify tables and software available in Brazil containing information about retinol equivalent and iron content that are currently used by nutritionists. Ten tables and five software programs were selected for this study. The methodology used to present the retinol equivalent and iron content was evaluated and no pattern to obtain such content was found in the tables and software programs analyzed. Only one of the tables had enough information for the calculation of retinol equivalents; this table is recommended to all Latin America As for the iron content, three of the tables analyzed stand out and therefore should be used; two of them are based on national foods and the other is recommended for use in all Latin America countries. None of the software programs evaluated use the conversion factors suggested by IVACG to assess the vitamin A content in foods. Special attention should be given to the content of iron provided in the software programs since they use tables as international sources and fortified foods.

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Assessing fish consumption is complex and involves several factors; however, the use of questionnaires in surveys and the use of the Internet as tool to collect data have been considered promising approaches. Therefore, the objective of this research was to design a data collection technique using a questionnaire to assess fish consumption by making it available on a specific home page on the Internet. A bibliographical survey or review was carried out to identify the features of the instrument, and therefore pre-tests were conducted with previous instruments, followed by the Focus Group technique. Specialists then performed an analysis and conducted an online pre-test. Multivariate data analysis was applied using the SmartPLS software. The results indicate that 1.966 participants belonging to the University of São Paulo (USP) community participated in the test, and after the exclusion of some variables, a statistically significant results were obtained. The final constructs comprised consumption, quality, and general characteristics. The instrument consisted of behavioral statements in a 5-point Likert scale and multiple-choice questions. The Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient was 0.66 for general characteristics, 0.98 for quality, and 0.91 for consumption, which indicate good reliability of the instrument. In conclusion, the results proved that the Internet assessment is efficient. The instrument of analysis allowed us to better understand the process of buying and consuming fish in the country, and it can be used as base for further research.

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The cellular structure of healthy food products, with added dietary fiber and low in calories, is an important factor that contributes to the assessment of quality, which can be quantified by image analysis of visual texture. This study seeks to compare image analysis techniques (binarization using Otsu’s method and the default ImageJ algorithm, a variation of the iterative intermeans method) for quantification of differences in the crumb structure of breads made with different percentages of whole-wheat flour and fat replacer, and discuss the behavior of the parameters number of cells, mean cell area, cell density, and circularity using response surface methodology. Comparative analysis of the results achieved with the Otsu and default ImageJ algorithms showed a significant difference between the studied parameters. The Otsu method demonstrated the crumb structure of the analyzed breads more reliably than the default ImageJ algorithm, and is thus the most suitable in terms of structural representation of the crumb texture.

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AbstractOptimization of microwave drying conditions of Luvhele and Mabonde banana varieties were studied using response surface methodology. The drying was performed using a central composite rotatable design for two variables: microwave power level (100, 200 and 300 W) and drying time (40, 26, and 12 min.) for Luvhele; (100, 200 and 300 W) and (42, 27, and 12 min) for Mabonde. The colour and texture (hardness) data were analyzed using ANOVA and regression analysis. The fitness of the models obtained was good as the lack of fit for each of the models was not significant. The coefficient of determination R2 of the models was relatively high, hence the models obtained for the responses were adequate and acceptable. Drying conditions of 178.76 W, 12 min. drying time were found optimum for product quality at a desirability of 0.91 for Luvhele; while 127.67 W, 12 min. with a desirability of 0.86 was predicted for Mabonde. The result of this study could be used as a standard for microwave processing of Luvhele and Mabondebanana varieties.

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The credibility of the rules and the elements of power constitute fundamental keys in the analysis of the political institutions. This paper opens the "black box" of the European Union institutions and analyses the problem of credibility in the commitment of the Stability and Growth pact (SGP). This Pact (SGP) constituted a formal rule that tried to enforce budgetary discipline on the European States. Compliance with this contract could be ensured by the existence of "third party enforcement" or by the coincidence of the ex-ante and ex-post interests of the States (reputational capital). The fact is that states such as France or Germany failed to comply with the ruling and managed to avoid the application of sanctions. This article studies the transactions and the hierarchy of power that exists in the European institutions, and analyses the institutional framework included in the new European Constitution.