119 resultados para Predictive values


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Background: End-stage kidney disease patients continue to have markedly increased cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. Analysis of genetic factors connected with the renin-angiotensin system that influences the survival of the patients with end-stage kidney disease supports the ongoing search for improved outcomes. Objective: To assess survival and its association with the polymorphism of renin-angiotensin system genes: angiotensin I-converting enzyme insertion/deletion and angiotensinogen M235T in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Methods: Our study was designed to examine the role of renin-angiotensin system genes. It was an observational study. We analyzed 473 chronic hemodialysis patients in four dialysis units in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Survival rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and the differences between the curves were evaluated by Tarone-Ware, Peto-Prentice, and log rank tests. We also used logistic regression analysis and the multinomial model. A p value ≤ 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. The local medical ethics committee gave their approval to this study. Results: The mean age of patients was 45.8 years old. The overall survival rate was 48% at 11 years. The major causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (34%) and infections (15%). Logistic regression analysis found statistical significance for the following variables: age (p = 0.000038), TT angiotensinogen (p = 0.08261), and family income greater than five times the minimum wage (p = 0.03089), the latter being a protective factor. Conclusions: The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced by the TT of the angiotensinogen M235T gene.

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Background: Physiological reflexes modulated primarily by the vagus nerve allow the heart to decelerate and accelerate rapidly after a deep inspiration followed by rapid movement of the limbs. This is the physiological and pharmacologically validated basis for the 4-s exercise test (4sET) used to assess the vagal modulation of cardiac chronotropism. Objective: To present reference data for 4sET in healthy adults. Methods: After applying strict clinical inclusion/exclusion criteria, 1,605 healthy adults (61% men) aged between 18 and 81 years subjected to 4sET were evaluated between 1994 and 2014. Using 4sET, the cardiac vagal index (CVI) was obtained by calculating the ratio between the duration of two RR intervals in the electrocardiogram: 1) after a 4-s rapid and deep breath and immediately before pedaling and 2) at the end of a rapid and resistance-free 4-s pedaling exercise. Results: CVI varied inversely with age (r = -0.33, p < 0.01), and the intercepts and slopes of the linear regressions between CVI and age were similar for men and women (p > 0.05). Considering the heteroscedasticity and the asymmetry of the distribution of the CVI values according to age, we chose to express the reference values in percentiles for eight age groups (years): 18–30, 31–40, 41–45, 46–50, 51–55, 56–60, 61–65, and 66+, obtaining progressively lower median CVI values ranging from 1.63 to 1.24. Conclusion: The availability of CVI percentiles for different age groups should promote the clinical use of 4sET, which is a simple and safe procedure for the evaluation of vagal modulation of cardiac chronotropism.

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AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

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In order to evaluate the predictive value of acid fast bacilii (AFB) smear for the diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in respiratory specimens in a setting with a high prevalence of Aids and an unknown prevalence of nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), we retrospectively examined specimens cultured for mycobacteria between 1 September 1993 and 30 September 1994 and medical records of patients with positive culture in a General Hospital, Aids reference in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Seventy three per cent (1517/2077) of samples were respiratory specimens and mycobacteria were recovered from 20.6% (313/1517) of these. M. tuberculosis was identified in 94.2% (295/313) and NTM in 5.8% (18/313). The yield of positive AFB smear and of positive culture was 6.1% (93/1517) and 20.6% (313/1517), respectively. The positive predictive value (PPV) of AFB for M. tuberculosis was 98.4% in expectorated sputum and 96.4% in bronchoalveolar lavage. Forty four percent (130/295) of specimens with positive culture for M. tuberculosis and 66.7% (12/18) for NTM were from patients HIV positive. The conclusion was that in our study population, the PPV of AFB for M. tuberculosis in respiratory specimens was high and the prevalence of NTM was low despite the high prevalence of HIV positive.

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Slime and proteinase activity of 54 strains consisting of 19 Candida parapsilosis and 35 C. albicans strains isolated from blood samples were investigated in this study. Ketoconazole, amphothericin B, and fluconazole susceptibility of Candida species were compared with slime production and proteinase activity of these species. For both Candida species, no correlation was detected between the slime activity and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of the three antifungal agents. For both Candida species no correlation was detected between the proteinase activity and the MIC values of amphothericin B, and fluconazole however, statistically significant difference, was determined between the proteinase activity and MIC values of ketoconazole (p = 0.007). Slime production was determined by using modified Christensen macrotube method and proteinase activity was measured by the method of Staib. Antifungal susceptibility was determined through the guidelines of National Committee for Laboratory Standards (NCCLS M27-A).

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It has been reported that patients with progressive tuberculosis (TB) express abundant amounts of the antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) cathelicidin (LL-37) and human neutrophil peptide-1 (HNP-1) in circulating cells, whereas latent TB infected donors showed no differences when compared with purified protein derivative (PPD) and QuantiFERON®-TB Gold (QFT)-healthy individuals. The aim of this study was to determine whether LL-37 and HNP-1 production correlates with higher tuberculin skin test (TST) and QFT values in TB household contacts. Twenty-six TB household contact individuals between 26-58 years old TST and QFT positive with at last two years of latent TB infection were recruited. AMPs production by polymorphonuclear cells was determined by flow cytometry and correlation between TST and QFT values was analysed. Our results showed that there is a positive correlation between levels of HNP-1 and LL-37 production with reactivity to TST and/or QFT levels. This preliminary study suggests the potential use of the expression levels of these peptides as biomarkers for progression in latent infected individuals.

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This study investigated the rate of human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence, associated risk factors, and predictors of cytological alteration outcomes in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-infected pregnant women over an 18-month period. HPV was typed through L1 gene sequencing in cervical smears collected during gestation and at 12 months after delivery. Outcomes were defined as nonpersistence (clearance of the HPV in the 2nd sample), re-infection (detection of different types of HPV in the 2 samples), and type-specific HPV persistence (the same HPV type found in both samples). An unfavourable cytological outcome was considered when the second exam showed progression to squamous intraepithelial lesion or high squamous intraepithelial lesion. Ninety patients were studied. HPV DNA persistence occurred in 50% of the cases composed of type-specific persistence (30%) or re-infection (20%). A low CD4+T-cell count at entry was a risk factor for type-specific, re-infection, or HPV DNA persistence. The odds ratio (OR) was almost three times higher in the type-specific group when compared with the re-infection group (OR = 2.8; 95% confidence interval: 0.43-22.79). Our findings show that bonafide (type-specific) HPV persistence is a stronger predictor for the development of cytological abnormalities, highlighting the need for HPV typing as opposed to HPV DNA testing in the clinical setting.

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Although the criteria for defining erosion tolerance are well established, the limits generally used are not consistent with natural, economical and technological conditions. Rates greater than soil formation can be accepted only until a minimum of soil depth is reached, provided that they are not associated with environmental hazard or productivity losses. A sequence of equations is presented to calculate erosion tolerance rates through time. The selection of equation parameters permits the definition of erosion tolerance rates in agreement with environmental, social and technical needs. The soil depth change that is related to irreversible soil degradation can be calculated. The definition of soil erosion tolerance according to these equations can be used as a guideline for sustainable land use planning and is compatible with expert systems.

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Is it possible to build predictive models (PMs) of soil particle-size distribution (psd) in a region with complex geology and a young and unstable land-surface? The main objective of this study was to answer this question. A set of 339 soil samples from a small slope catchment in Southern Brazil was used to build PMs of psd in the surface soil layer. Multiple linear regression models were constructed using terrain attributes (elevation, slope, catchment area, convergence index, and topographic wetness index). The PMs explained more than half of the data variance. This performance is similar to (or even better than) that of the conventional soil mapping approach. For some size fractions, the PM performance can reach 70 %. Largest uncertainties were observed in geologically more complex areas. Therefore, significant improvements in the predictions can only be achieved if accurate geological data is made available. Meanwhile, PMs built on terrain attributes are efficient in predicting the particle-size distribution (psd) of soils in regions of complex geology.

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ABSTRACT Soil contamination by heavy metals threatens ecosystems and human health. Environmental monitoring bodies need reference values for these contaminants to assess the impacts of anthropogenic activities on soil contamination. Quality reference values (QRVs) reflect the natural concentrations of heavy metals in soils without anthropic interference and must be regionally established. The aim of this study was to determine the natural concentrations and quality reference values for the metals Ag, Ba, Cd, Co, Cu, Cr, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb and Zn in soils of Paraíba state, Brazil. Soil samples were collected from 94 locations across the state in areas of native vegetation or with minimal anthropic interference. The quality reference values (QRVs) were (mg kg-1): Ag (<0.53), Ba (117.41), Cd (0.08), Co (13.14), Cu (20.82), Cr (48.35), Mo (0.43), Ni (14.44), Sb (0.61), Pb (14.62) and Zn (33.65). Principal component analysis grouped the metals Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Sb (PC1); Ag (PC2); and Ba, Co, Fe, Mn and Zn (PC3). These values were made official by Paraíba state through Normativa Resolution 3602/2014.

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The objective of this study was to establish critical values of the N indices, namely soil-plant analysis development (SPAD), petiole sap N-NO3 and organic N in the tomato leaf adjacent to the first cluster (LAC), under soil and nutrient solution conditions, determined by different statistical approaches. Two experiments were conducted in randomized complete block design with four repli-cations. Tomato plants were grown in soil, in 3 L pot, with five N rates (0, 100, 200, 400 and 800 mg kg-1) and in solution at N rates of 0, 4, 8, 12 and 16 mmol L-1. Experiments in nutrient solution and soil were finished at thirty seven and forty two days after transplanting, respectively. At those times, SPAD index and petiole sap N-NO3 were evaluated in the LAC. Then, plants were harvested, separated in leaves and stem, dried at 70ºC, ground and weighted. The organic N was determined in LAC dry matter. Three statistical procedures were used to calculate critical N values. There were accentuated discrepancies for critical values of N indices obtained with plants grown in soil and nutrient solution as well as for different statistical procedures. Critical values of nitrogen indices at all situations are presented.

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Objective: The present study was aimed at evaluating the contribution of transrectal prostate ultrasound in the screening for prostate neoplasias and in the guidance of prostate biopsies. Materials and Methods: Prospective study developed over a one-year period. All the patients with indication for prostate biopsy were evaluated. Regardless of PSA values, the patients underwent ultrasound in order to identify suspicious nodules (confirmed by two observers). Sextant biopsy was subsequently performed. In cases of finding suspicious nodules, an additional puncture directed to such nodules was done. Results: In a total of 155 cases the prevalence of malignancy was of 53%. Suspicious nodules were detected in 34 patients, and 25 where malignant (positive predictive value of 74%). The specificity and sensitivity for suspicious nodules were 88% and 31% respectively. Comparatively with the randomly obtained sextant specimens, the rate of findings of neoplasia was higher in the specimens obtained with puncture directed to the nodule (p = 0.032). No statistically significant difference was observed in the Gleason score for both types of specimens (p = 0.172). Conclusion: The high positive predictive value and the high rate of findings of neoplasia in specimens of suspicious nodules should be taken into consideration in the future. The authors suggest a biopsy technique similar to the one described in the present study (sextant biopsy plus puncture directed to the suspicious nodule).

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Objective: To analyze standardized uptake values (SUVs) using three different tube current intensities for attenuation correction on 18FNaF PET/CT scans. Materials and Methods: A total of 254 18F-NaF PET/CT studies were analyzed using 10, 20 and 30 mAs. The SUVs were calculated in volumes of interest (VOIs) drawn on three skeletal regions, namely, right proximal humeral diaphysis (RH), right proximal femoral diaphysis (RF), and first lumbar vertebra (LV1) in a total of 712 VOIs. The analyses covered 675 regions classified as normal (236 RH, 232 RF, and 207 LV1). Results: Mean SUV for each skeletal region was 3.8, 5.4 and 14.4 for RH, RF, and LV1, respectively. As the studies were grouped according to mAs value, the mean SUV values were 3.8, 3.9 and 3.7 for 10, 20 and 30 mAs, respectively, in the RH region; 5.4, 5.5 and 5.4 for 10, 20 and 30 mAs, respectively, in the RF region; 13.8, 14.9 and 14.5 for 10, 20 and 30 mAs, respectively, in the LV1 region. Conclusion: The three tube current values yielded similar results for SUV calculation.

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Extended Hildebrand Solubility Approach (EHSA) developed by Martin et al. was applied to evaluate the solubility of ketoprofen (KTP) in ethanol + water cosolvent mixtures at 298.15 K. Calculated values of molar volume and solubility parameter for KTP were used. A good predictive capacity of EHSA was found by using a regular polynomial model in order five to correlate the W interaction parameter and the solubility parameters of cosolvent mixtures (δmix). Nevertheless, the deviations obtained in the estimated solubilities with respect to the experimental solubilities were on the same order like those obtained directly by means of an empiric regression of the logarithmic experimental solubilities as a function of δmix values.

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Descriptors in multivariate image analysis applied to quantitative structure-activity relationship (MIA-QSAR) are pixels of bidimensional images of chemical structures (drawings), which were used to model the trichomonicidal activities of a series of benzimidazole derivatives. The MIA-QSAR model showed good predictive ability, with r², q² and r val. ext.² of 0.853, 0.519 and 0.778, respectively, which are comparable to the best values obtained by CoMFA e CoMSIA for the same series. A MIA-based analysis was also performed by using images of alphabetic letters with the corresponding numeric ordering as dependent variables, but no correlation was found, supporting that MIA-QSAR is not arbitrary.