84 resultados para Predictive modeling
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This work presents the use of potentiometric measurements for kinetic studies of biosorption of Cd2+ ions from aqueous solutions on Eichhornia crassipes roots. The open circuit potential of the Cd/Cd2+ electrode of the first kind was measured during the bioadsorption process. The amount of Cd2+ ions accumulated was determined in real time. The data were fit to different models, with the pseudo-second-order model proving to be the best in describing the data. The advantages and limitations of the methodology proposed relative to the traditional method are discussed.
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This study was carried to evaluate the efficiency of the Bitterlich method in growth and yield modeling of the even-aged Eucalyptus stands. 25 plots were setup in Eucalyptus grandis cropped under a high bole system in the Central Western Region of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The sampling points were setup in the center of each plot. The data of four annual mesurements were colleted and used to adjust the three model types using the age, the site index and the basal area as independent variables. The growths models were fitted for volume and mass of trees. The efficiency of the Bitterlich method was confirmed for generating the data for growth and yield modeling.
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This work evaluated eight hypsometric models to represent tree height-diameter relationship, using data obtained from the scaling of 118 trees and 25 inventory plots. Residue graphic analysis and percent deviation mean criteria, qui-square test precision, residual standard error between real and estimated heights and the graybill f test were adopted. The identity of the hypsometric models was also verified by applying the F(Ho) test on the plot data grouped to the scaling data. It was concluded that better accuracy can be obtained by using the model prodan, with h and d1,3 data measured in 10 trees by plots grouped into these scaling data measurements of even-aged forest stands.
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ABSTRACTThis study presents a contribution to the modeling of a computer application employing a method of serviceability performance for unpaved roads, aiming the management of maintenance/restoration activities of the primary surface layer. The proposed methodology consisted of field inspections during dry (April to September) and rainy (October to March) periods, during which objective evaluations were performed to survey of defects and their densities and degrees of severity. To aid the functional classification of analyzed road sections and the determination of the defect with major influence on the serviceability of these roads, the method of serviceability performance proposed by Silva (2009)was implemented in the Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) language in Microsoft Excel software. With the use of the computer application proposed it was possible to identify among the defects analyzed in field, through the index of serviceability of the sampling unit per defect type (ISUdef), which one had the greatest influence on determining the relative serviceability index per road section (IST). The results allow us to conclude that the computer application Road achieved satisfactory results, since the objective evaluation criteria applied to road sections denotes consistency regarding their serviceability.
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ABSTRACT This study aimed to verify the differences in radiation intensity as a function of distinct relief exposure surfaces and to quantify these effects on the leaf area index (LAI) and other variables expressing eucalyptus forest productivity for simulations in a process-based growth model. The study was carried out at two contrasting edaphoclimatic locations in the Rio Doce basin in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Two stands with 32-year-old plantations were used, allocating fixed plots in locations with northern and southern exposure surfaces. The meteorological data were obtained from two automated weather stations located near the study sites. Solar radiation was corrected for terrain inclination and exposure surfaces, as it is measured based on the plane, perpendicularly to the vertical location. The LAI values collected in the field were used. For the comparative simulations in productivity variation, the mechanistic 3PG model was used, considering the relief exposure surfaces. It was verified that during most of the year, the southern surfaces showed lower availability of incident solar radiation, resulting in up to 66% losses, compared to the same surface considered plane, probably related to its geographical location and higher declivity. Higher values were obtained for the plantings located on the northern surface for the variables LAI, volume and mean annual wood increase, with this tendency being repeated in the 3PG model simulations.
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Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.
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Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.
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In the forced-air cooling process of fruits occurs, besides the convective heat transfer, the mass transfer by evaporation. The energy need in the evaporation is taken from fruit that has its temperature lowered. In this study it has been proposed the use of empirical correlations for calculating the convective heat transfer coefficient as a function of surface temperature of the strawberry during the cooling process. The aim of this variation of the convective coefficient is to compensate the effect of evaporation in the heat transfer process. Linear and exponential correlations are tested, both with two adjustable parameters. The simulations are performed using experimental conditions reported in the literature for the cooling of strawberries. The results confirm the suitability of the proposed methodology.
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The interaction between the soil and tillage tool can be examined using different parameters for the soil and the tool. Among the soil parameters are the shear stress, cohesion, internal friction angle of the soil and the pre-compression stress. The tool parameters are mainly the tool geometry and depth of operation. Regarding to the soils of Rio Grande do Sul there are hardly any studies and evaluations of the parameters that have importance in the use of mathematical models to predict tensile loads. The objective was to obtain parameters related to the soils of Rio Grande do Sul, which are used in soil-tool analysis, more specifically on mathematical models that allow the calculation of tractive effort for symmetric and narrow tools. Two of the main soils of Rio Grande do Sul, an Albaqualf and a Paleudult were studied. Equations that relate the cohesion, internal friction angle of the soil, adhesion, soil-tool friction angle and pre-compression stress as a function of water content in the soil were obtained, leading to important information for use of mathematical models for tractive effort calculation.
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This study aimed to apply mathematical models to the growth of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) reared in net cages in the lower São Francisco basin and choose the model(s) that best represents the conditions of rearing for the region. Nonlinear models of Brody, Bertalanffy, Logistic, Gompertz, and Richards were tested. The models were adjusted to the series of weight for age according to the methods of Gauss, Newton, Gradiente and Marquardt. It was used the procedure "NLIN" of the System SAS® (2003) to obtain estimates of the parameters from the available data. The best adjustment of the data were performed by the Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Logistic models which are equivalent to explain the growth of the animals up to 270 days of rearing. From the commercial point of view, it is recommended that commercialization of tilapia from at least 600 g, which is estimated in the Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Logistic models for creating over 183, 181 and 184 days, and up to 1 Kg of mass , it is suggested the suspension of the rearing up to 244, 244 and 243 days, respectively.
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ABSTRACT Given the need to obtain systems to better control broiler production environment, we performed an experiment with broilers from 1 to 21 days, which were submitted to different intensities and air temperature durations in conditioned wind tunnels and the results were used for validation of afuzzy model. The model was developed using as input variables: duration of heat stress (days), dry bulb air temperature (°C) and as output variable: feed intake (g) weight gain (g) and feed conversion (g.g-1). The inference method used was Mamdani, 20 rules have been prepared and the defuzzification technique used was the Center of Gravity. A satisfactory efficiency in determining productive responses is evidenced in the results obtained in the model simulation, when compared with the experimental data, where R2 values calculated for feed intake, weight gain and feed conversion were 0.998, 0.981 and 0.980, respectively.
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PURPOSE: To identify the predictive factors for voiding dysfunction after transobturator slings. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the records of all patients who underwent a transobturator sling between March 2003 and December 2008. A total of 514 women had available data with at least a six-week follow-up. Patients' demographics, preoperative symptoms, urodynamic testing including multichannel voiding studies and surgical variables were tabulated. Voiding dysfunction was defined by a catheterized or ultrasonographic postvoid residual greater than 100 cc (≥six weeks after the procedure) associated with any complaints of abnormal voiding. Univariate logistic regression analysis was performed with respect to postoperative voiding dysfunction. RESULTS: The patient population had a mean age of 58.5±12.9 years. Thirty-three out of 514 patients (6.4%) had postoperative voiding dysfunction according to our definition, and 4 (0.78%) required sling transection. No differences were observed between normal and dysfunctional voiders in age, associated prolapse surgery, preoperative postvoid residual, preoperative urinary flow rate, prior pelvic surgery, and menopausal status. Valsalva efforts during the preoperative pressure flow study was the only predictive factor for postoperative voiding dysfunction, 72.4% dysfunctional versus 27.6% normal (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Preoperative Valsalva maneuver during the micturition could identify those at risk for voiding dysfunction after transobturator sling, and it should be noted during preoperative counseling.
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Purpose To compare the predictive capability of HPV and Pap smear tests for screening pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix over a three-year follow-up, in a population of users of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of 2,032 women with satisfactory results for Pap smear and HPV tests using second-generation hybrid capture,made in a previous study. We followed them for 36 months with data obtained from medical records, the Cervix Cancer Information System (SISCOLO), and the Mortality Information System (SIM). The outcome was a histological diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more advanced lesions (CIN2ş). We constructed progression curves of the baseline test results for the period, using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for each test. Results A total of 1,440 women had at least one test during follow-up. Progression curves of the baseline test results indicated differences in capability to detect CIN2ş (p < 0.001) with significantly greater capability when both tests were abnormal, followed by only a positive HPV test. The HPV test was more sensitive than the Pap smear (88.7% and 73.6%, respectively; p < 0.05) and had a better negative likelihood ratio (0.13 and 0.30, respectively). Specificity and positive likelihood ratio of the tests were similar. Conclusions These findings corroborate the importance of HPV test as a primary cervical cancer screening.
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This work describes techniques for modeling, optimizing and simulating calibration processes of robots using off-line programming. The identification of geometric parameters of the nominal kinematic model is optimized using techniques of numerical optimization of the mathematical model. The simulation of the actual robot and the measurement system is achieved by introducing random errors representing their physical behavior and its statistical repeatability. An evaluation of the corrected nominal kinematic model brings about a clear perception of the influence of distinct variables involved in the process for a suitable planning, and indicates a considerable accuracy improvement when the optimized model is compared to the non-optimized one.