Guidelines on how to assess the validity of results presented in subgroup analysis of clinical trials

In observational studies, identification of associations within particular subgroups is the usual method of investigation. As an exploratory method, it is the bread and butter of epidemiological research. Nearly everything that has been learned in epidemiology has been derived from the analysis of subgroups. In a randomized clinical trial, the entire purpose is the comparison of the test subjects and the controls, and when there is particular interest in the results of treatment in a certain section of trial participants, a subgroup analysis is performed. These subgroups are examined to see if they are liable to a greater benefit or risk from treatment. Thus, analyzing patient subsets is a natural part of the process of improving therapeutic knowledge through clinical trials. Nevertheless, the reliability of subgroup analysis can often be poor because of problems of multiplicity and limitations in the numbers of patients studied. The naive interpretation of the results of such examinations is a cause of great confusion in the therapeutic literature. We emphasize the need for readers to be aware that inferences based on comparisons between subgroups in randomized clinical trials should be approached more cautiously than those based on the main comparison. That is, subgroup analysis results derived from a sound clinical trial are not necessarily valid; one must not jump to conclusions and accept the validity of subgroup analysis results without an appropriate judgment.

Acute myocardial infarction in progressively elderly patients. A comparative analysis of immediate results in patients who underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention

OBJECTIVE: Analysis of the in-hospital results, in progressively elderly patients who undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the first 24 hours of AMI. METHODS: The patients were divided into three different age groups (60/69, 70/79, and > or = 80 years) and were treated from 7/95 until 12/99. The primary success rate and the occurrence of major clinical events were analyzed at the end of the in-hospital phase. Coronary stent implantation and abciximab use were employed at the intervencionist discretion. RESULTS: We analyzed 201 patients with age ranging from 60 to 93 years, who underwent primary PCI. Patients with ages above 70 were more often female (p=.015). Those with ages above 80 were treated later with PCI (p=.054), and all of them presented with total occlusion of the infarct-related artery. Coronary stents were implanted in 30% of the patients. Procedural success was lower in > or = 80 year old patients (p=.022), and the death rate was higher in > or = 70 years olds (p=.019). Reinfarction and coronary bypass surgery were uncommon events. A trend occurred toward a higher combined incidence of major in-hospital events according to increased age (p=.064). CONCLUSION: Elderly patients ( > or = 70 years) presented with adverse clinical and angiographic profiles and patients > or = 80 years of age obtained reduced TIMI 3 flow success rates after primary PTCA, and those > or = 70 years had a higher death rate.

Determination of flavonoids in stamen, gynoecium, and petals of Magnolia grandiflora L. and their associated antioxidant and hepatoprotection activities

Chromatographic analysis of flavonoids in ethyl acetate fractions of the stamen, gynoecium, and petal of Magnolia grandiflora L. by HPLC-PDA-MS/MS-ESI in the negative ionization mode was performed in this study. The results revealed the presence of eight flavonoids: apigenin 8-C-glucoside, luteolin 8-C-glucoside, quercetin 3-O-rutinoside, quercetin 3-O-galactoside, quercetin, 3-O-glucoside, kaempferol 3-O-rutinoside, isorhamnetin 3-O-glucoside, and isorhamnetin. Their quantification revealed that luteolin 8-C-glucoside is the major flavonoid and that the total phenolic content is concentrated primarily in the stamen. The antioxidant and hepatoprotective effects of ethanolic extract of the flower organs were evaluated against hepatotoxicity induced by CCl4, compared with the effects of silymarin.

Spot-test identification and rapid quantitative sequential analysis of dipyrone

A qualitative spot-test and tandem quantitative analysis of dipyrone in the bulk drug and in pharmaceutical preparations is proposed. The formation of a reddish-violet color indicates a positive result. In sequence a quantitative procedure can be performed in the same flask. The quantitative results obtained were statistically compared with those obtained with the method indicated by the Brazilian Pharmacopoeia, using the Student's t and the F tests. Considering the concentration in a 100 µL aliquot, the qualitative visual limit of detection is about 5×10-6 g; instrumental LOD ≅ 1.4×10-4 mol L-1 ; LOQ ≅ 4.5×10-4 mol L-1.

Prevalence of infection in kidney transplantation from living versus deceased donor: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE To verify if the type of donor is a risk factor for infection in kidney transplant recipients. METHODS Systematic Review of Literature with Meta-analysis with searches conducted in the databases MEDLINE, LILACS, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science, SciELO and CINAHL. RESULTS We selected 198 studies and included four observational studies describing infections among patients distinguishing the type of donor. Through meta-analysis, it was shown that in patients undergoing deceased donor transplant, the outcome infection was 2.65 higher, than those who received an organ from a living donor. CONCLUSION The study showed that deceased kidney donor recipients are at an increased risk for developing infections and so the need for establishing and enforcing protocols from proper management of ischemic time to the prevention and control of infection in this population emerges.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Spectral and symbolic analysis of the effect of gender and postural change on cardiac autonomic modulation in healthy elderly subjects

The objective of this study was to use linear and non-linear methods to investigate cardiac autonomic modulation in healthy elderly men and women in response to a postural change from the supine to the standing position. Fourteen men (66.1 ± 3.5 years) and 10 women (65.3 ± 3.3 years) were evaluated. Beat-to-beat heart rate was recorded in the supine and standing positions. Heart rate variability was studied by spectral analysis, including both low (LFnu-cardiac sympathetic modulation (CSM) indicator) and high (HFnu-cardiac vagal modulation (CVM) indicator) frequencies in normalized units as well as the low frequency/high frequency (LF/HF) ratio. Symbolic analysis was performed using the following indexes: 0V% (CSM indicator), 1V% (CSM and CVM indicators), 2LV% (predominantly CVM indicator) and 2ULV% (CVM indicator). Shannon entropy was also calculated. Men presented higher LFnu and LF/HF ratio and lower HFnu and 1V% symbolic index (57.56, 4.14, 40.53, 45.96, respectively) than women (24.60, 0.45, 72.47, 52.69, respectively) in the supine position. Shannon entropy was higher among men (3.53) than among women (3.33) in the standing position, and also increased according to postural change in men (3.25; 3.53). During postural change, the LFnu (24.60; 49.85) and LF/HF ratio (0.45; 1.72) increased, with a concomitant decrease in HFnu (72.47; 47.56) and 2LV% (14.10; 6.95) in women. Women presented increased CSM in response to postural change and had higher CVM and lower CSM than men in the supine position. In conclusion, women in the age range studied presented a more appropriate response to a postural change than men, suggesting that cardiac autonomic modulation may be better preserved in women than in men.

The efficacy of moxifloxacin-based triple therapy in treatment of Helicobacter pylori infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

Recent evidence shows that moxifloxacin could exert an antimicrobial effect against Helicobacter pylori in both in vitroand in vivo models. To systematically evaluate whether moxifloxacin-containing triple therapy could improve eradication rates and reduce side effects in first-line or second-line anti-H. pyloritreatment, eligible articles were identified by searches of electronic databases. We included all randomized trials comparing moxifloxacin-based triple therapy with standard triple or quadruple therapy during H. pylori eradication treatment. Statistical analysis was performed with Review Manager 5.0.10. Subanalysis/sensitivity analysis was also performed. We identified seven randomized trials (n=1263). Pooled H. pylori eradication rates were 79.03% (95%CI: 75.73-82.07) and 68.33% (95%CI: 64.44-72.04) for patients with moxifloxacin-based triple therapy or with standard triple or quadruple therapy, respectively (intention-to-treat analysis). The odds ratio (OR) was 1.82 (95%CI: 1.17-2.81), the occurrence of total side effects was 15.23% (95%CI: 12.58-18.20) and 27.17% (95%CI: 23.64-30.92) for groups with or without moxifloxacin, and the summary OR was 0.45 (95%CI: 0.26-0.77). In subgroup analyses, we noted that the second-line eradication rate in the moxifloxacin group was significantly higher than that in the quadruple therapy group (73.33 vs 60.17%, OR: 1.78, 95%CI: 1.16-2.73, P<0.001). However, there was no difference in first-line eradication treatment. Findings from this meta-analysis suggest that moxifloxacin-based triple therapy is more effective and better tolerated than standard triple or quadruple therapy. Therefore, a moxifloxacin-based triple regimen should be used in the second-line treatment of H. pylori infection.

Economic analysis of surgical treatment of hip fracture in older adults

OBJECTIVE To analyze the incremental cost-utility ratio for the surgical treatment of hip fracture in older patients.METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study of a systematic sample of patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture at a central hospital of a macro-region in the state of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011. A decision tree creation was analyzed considering the direct medical costs. The study followed the healthcare provider’s perspective and had a one-year time horizon. Effectiveness was measured by the time elapsed between trauma and surgery after dividing the patients into early and late surgery groups. The utility was obtained in a cross-sectional and indirect manner using the EuroQOL 5 Dimensions generic questionnaire transformed into cardinal numbers using the national regulations established by the Center for the Development and Regional Planning of the State of Minas Gerais. The sample included 110 patients, 27 of whom were allocated in the early surgery group and 83 in the late surgery group. The groups were stratified by age, gender, type of fracture, type of surgery, and anesthetic risk.RESULTS The direct medical cost presented a statistically significant increase among patients in the late surgery group (p < 0.005), mainly because of ward costs (p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was higher in the late surgery group (7.4% versus 16.9%). The decision tree demonstrated the dominance of the early surgery strategy over the late surgery strategy: R$9,854.34 (USD4,387.17) versus R$26,754.56 (USD11,911.03) per quality-adjusted life year. The sensitivity test with extreme values proved the robustness of the results.CONCLUSIONS After controlling for confounding variables, the strategy of early surgery for hip fracture in the older adults was proven to be dominant, because it presented a lower cost and better results than late surgery.

Gender in the allocation of organs in kidney transplants: meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE To analyze whether gender influence survival results of kidney transplant grafts and patients.METHODS Systematic review with meta-analysis of cohort studies available on Medline (PubMed), LILACS, CENTRAL, and Embase databases, including manual searching and in the grey literature. The selection of studies and the collection of data were conducted twice by independent reviewers, and disagreements were settled by a third reviewer. Graft and patient survival rates were evaluated as effectiveness measurements. Meta-analysis was conducted with the Review Manager® 5.2 software, through the application of a random effects model. Recipient, donor, and donor-recipient gender comparisons were evaluated.RESULTS : Twenty-nine studies involving 765,753 patients were included. Regarding graft survival, those from male donors were observed to have longer survival rates as compared to the ones from female donors, only regarding a 10-year follow-up period. Comparison between recipient genders was not found to have significant differences on any evaluated follow-up periods. In the evaluation between donor-recipient genders, male donor-male recipient transplants were favored in a statistically significant way. No statistically significant differences were observed in regards to patient survival for gender comparisons in all follow-up periods evaluated.CONCLUSIONS The quantitative analysis of the studies suggests that donor or recipient genders, when evaluated isolatedly, do not influence patient or graft survival rates. However, the combination between donor-recipient genders may be a determining factor for graft survival.

Meta-Analysis of Ultrafiltration versus Diuretics Treatment Option for Overload Volume Reduction in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Introduction: Although diuretics are mainly used for the treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF), inadequate responses and complications have led to the use of extracorporeal ultrafiltration (UF) as an alternative strategy for reducing volume overloads in patients with ADHF. Objective: The aim of our study is to perform meta-analysis of the results obtained from studies on extracorporeal venous ultrafiltration and compare them with those of standard diuretic treatment for overload volume reduction in acute decompensated heart failure. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were systematically searched using a pre‑specified criterion. Pooled estimates of outcomes after 48 h (weight change, serum creatinine level, and all-cause mortality) were computed using random effect models. Pooled weighted mean differences were calculated for weight loss and change in creatinine level, whereas a pooled risk ratio was used for the analysis of binary all-cause mortality outcome. Results: A total of nine studies, involving 613 patients, met the eligibility criteria. The mean weight loss in patients who underwent UF therapy was 1.78 kg [95% Confidence Interval (CI): −2.65 to −0.91 kg; p < 0.001) more than those who received standard diuretic therapy. The post-intervention creatinine level, however, was not significantly different (mean change = −0.25 mg/dL; 95% CI: −0.56 to 0.06 mg/dL; p = 0.112). The risk of all-cause mortality persisted in patients treated with UF compared with patients treated with standard diuretics (Pooled RR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.64–1.56; p = 0.993). Conclusion: Compared with standard diuretic therapy, UF treatment for overload volume reduction in individuals suffering from ADHF, resulted in significant reduction of body weight within 48 h. However, no significant decrease of serum creatinine level or reduction of all-cause mortality was observed.

Information and education in schistosomiasis control: an analysis of the situation in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

This paper presents the main ideas discussed in the round-table "Social and Educacional Aspects of Schistosomiasis Control", during the VII International Symposium of Schistosomiais. Considering the perspectives of schistosomiasis control in Brazil, it is described the example of the State of Minas Gerais , where the disease has been registered for more than seven decades. The importance of an extensive evaluation is now more important, considering the recent change in the Brazilian health system, since the Federal responsibility for the tropical diseases control programs have been replaced by the municipalities coordination. In this way, it is urgent to develop effective alternatives to assist the municipal staffs in the control task. In the specific case of health education, one observes a wide gap between the planned objectives and what is in fact carried out. Instant objectives and the utilization of traditional techniques prevail, which do not take into account the active participation of the population involved. Based on the authors' experience in the scientific and health education, the paper analyzes: (1) some data from a case study in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte, which presents the social representation and perception of schistosomiasis by the population; (2) an analysis of 35 different informative and educative materials used in Brazil since the sixties, and (3) some recommendations resulted from the studies that were carried out.

The sample processing time interval as an influential factor in flow cytometry analysis of lymphocyte subsets

The objective of this paper is to propose a protocol to analyze blood samples in yellow fever 17DD vaccinated which developed serious adverse events. We investigated whether or not the time between sample collection and sample processing could interfere in lymphocyte subset percentage, for it is often impossible to analyze blood samples immediately after collection due to transport delay from collection places to the flow cytometry facility. CD4+CD38+ T, CD8+CD38+ T, CD3+ T, CD19+ B lymphocyte subsets were analyzed by flow cytometry in nine healthy volunteers immediately after blood collection and after intervals of 24 and 48 h. The whole blood lysis method and gradient sedimentation by Histopaque were applied to isolate peripheral blood mononuclear cells for flow cytometry analyses. With the lysis method, there was no significant change in lymphocyte subset percentage between the two time intervals (24 and 48 h). In contrast, when blood samples were processed by Histopaque gradient sedimentation, time intervals for sample processing influenced the percentage in T lymphocyte subsets but not in B cells. From the results obtained, we could conclude that the whole blood lysis method is more appropriate than gradient sedimentation by Histopaque for immunophenotyping of blood samples collected after serious adverse events, due to less variation in the lymphocyte subset levels with respect to the time factor.

Analysis of multi-scale systemic risk in Brazil's financial market

This work analyzes whether the relationship between risk and returns predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is valid in the Brazilian stock market. The analysis is based on discrete wavelet decomposition on different time scales. This technique allows to analyze the relationship between different time horizons, since the short-term ones (2 to 4 days) up to the long-term ones (64 to 128 days). The results indicate that there is a negative or null relationship between systemic risk and returns for Brazil from 2004 to 2007. As the average excess return of a market portfolio in relation to a risk-free asset during that period was positive, it would be expected this relationship to be positive. That is, higher systematic risk should result in higher excess returns, which did not occur. Therefore, during that period, appropriate compensation for systemic risk was not observed in the Brazilian market. The scales that proved to be most significant to the risk-return relation were the first three, which corresponded to short-term time horizons. When treating differently, year-by-year, and consequently separating positive and negative premiums, some relevance is found, during some years, in the risk/return relation predicted by the CAPM. However, this pattern did not persist throughout the years. Therefore, there is not any evidence strong enough confirming that the asset pricing follows the model.