Timescales for Detecting a Significant Acceleration in Sea Level Rise

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

Socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change in South Florida

Awareness of extreme high tide flooding in coastal communities has been increasing in recent years, reflecting growing concern over accelerated sea level rise. As a low-lying, urban coastal community with high value real estate, Miami often tops the rankings of cities worldwide in terms of vulnerability to sea level rise. Understanding perceptions of these changes and how communities are dealing with the impacts reveals much about vulnerability to climate change and the challenges of adaptation. ^ This empirical study uses an innovative mixed-methods approach that combines ethnographic observations of high tide flooding, qualitative interviews and analysis of tidal data to reveal coping strategies used by residents and businesses as well as perceptions of sea level rise and climate change, and to assess the relationship between measurable sea levels and perceptions of flooding. I conduct a case study of Miami Beach's storm water master planning process which included sea level rise projections, one of the first in the nation to do so, that reveals the different and sometimes competing logics of planners, public officials, activists, residents and business interests with regards to climate change adaptation. By taking a deeply contextual account of hazards and adaptation efforts in a local area I demonstrate how this approach can be effective at shedding light on some of the challenges posed by anthropogenic climate change and accelerated rates of sea level rise. ^ The findings highlight challenges for infrastructure planning in low-lying, urban coastal areas, and for individual risk assessment in the context of rapidly evolving discourse about the threat of sea level rise. Recognition of the trade-offs and limits of incremental adaptation strategies point to transformative approaches, at the same time highlighting equity concerns in adaptation governance and planning. This new impact assessment method contributes to the integration of social and physical science approaches to climate change, resulting in improved understanding of socio-ecological vulnerability to environmental change.^

Drivers of Decadal-Scale Change in Southern Everglades Wetland Macrophyte Communities of the Coastal Ecotone

Understanding the relationships between hydrology and salinity and plant community structure and production is critical to allow predictions of wetland responses to altered water management, changing precipitation patterns and rising sea-level. We addressed how salinity, water depth, hydroperiod, canal inflows, and local precipitation control marsh macrophyte aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and structure in the coastal ecotone of the southern Everglades. We contrasted responses in two watersheds - Taylor Slough (TS) and C-111 - systems that have and will continue to experience changes in water management. Based on long-term trajectories in plant responses, we found continued evidence of increasing water levels and length of inundation in the C-111 watershed south of the C-111 canal. We also found strong differentiation among sites in upper TS that was dependent on hydrology. Finally, salinity, local precipitation and freshwater discharge from upstream explained over 80 % of the variance in Cladium ANPP at a brackish water site in TS. Moreover, our study showed that, while highly managed, the TS and C-111 watersheds maintain legacies in spatial pattern that would facilitate hydrologic restoration. Based on the trajectories in Cladium and Eleocharis, shifts in plant community structure could occur within 5–10 years of sustained water management change.

Tracking rates of ecotone migration due to salt-water encroachment using fossil mollusks in coastal South Florida

We determined the rate of migration of coastal vegetation zones in response to salt-water encroachment through paleoecological analysis of mollusks in 36 sediment cores taken along transects perpendicular to the coast in a 5.5 km2 band of coastal wetlands in southeast Florida. Five vegetation zones, separated by distinct ecotones, included freshwater swamp forest, freshwater marsh, and dwarf, transitional and fringing mangrove forest. Vegetation composition, soil depth and organic matter content, porewater salinity and the contemporary mollusk community were determined at 226 sites to establish the salinity preferences of the mollusk fauna. Calibration models allowed accurate inference of salinity and vegetation type from fossil mollusk assemblages in chronologically calibrated sediments. Most sediments were shallow (20–130 cm) permitting coarse-scale temporal inferences for three zones: an upper peat layer (zone 1) representing the last 30–70 years, a mixed peat-marl layer (zone 2) representing the previous ca. 150–250 years and a basal section (zone 3) of ranging from 310 to 2990 YBP. Modern peat accretion rates averaged 3.1 mm yr)1 while subsurface marl accreted more slowly at 0.8 mm yr)1. Salinity and vegetation type for zone 1 show a steep gradient with freshwater communities being confined west of a north–south drainage canal constructed in 1960. Inferences for zone 2 (pre-drainage) suggest that freshwater marshes and associated forest units covered 90% of the area, with mangrove forests only present along the peripheral coastline. During the entire pre-drainage history, salinity in the entire area was maintained below a mean of 2 ppt and only small pockets of mangroves were present; currently, salinity averages 13.2 ppt and mangroves occupy 95% of the wetland. Over 3 km2 of freshwater wetland vegetation type have been lost from this basin due to salt-water encroachment, estimated from the mollusk-inferred migration rate of freshwater vegetation of 3.1 m yr)1 for the last 70 years (compared to 0.14 m yr)1 for the pre-drainage period). This rapid rate of encroachment is driven by sea-level rise and freshwater diversion. Plans for rehydrating these basins with freshwater will require high-magnitude re-diversion to counteract locally high rates of sea-level rise.

Stable isotopes reveal complex changes in trophic relationships following nutrient addition in a coastal marine ecosystem

Complex links between the top-down and bottomup forces that structure communities can be disrupted by anthropogenic alterations of natural habitats.We used relative abundance and stable isotopes to examine changes in epifaunal food webs in seagrass (Thalassia testudinum) beds following 6 months of experimental nutrient addition at two sites in Florida Bay (USA) with different ambient fertility. At a eutrophic site, nutrient addition did not strongly affect food web structure, but at a nutrient-poor site, enrichment increased the abundances of crustacean epiphyte grazers, and the diets of these grazers became more varied. Benthic grazers did not change in abundance but shifted their diet away from green macroalgae + associated epiphytes and towards an opportunistic seagrass (Halodule wrightii) that occurred only in nutrient addition treatments. Benthic predators did not change in abundance, but their diets were more varied in enriched plots. Food chain length was short and unaffected by site or nutrient treatment, but increased food web complexity in enriched plots was suggested by increasingly mixed diets. Strong bottom-up modifications of food web structure in the nutrient-limited site and the limited top-down influences of grazers on seagrass epiphyte biomass suggest that, in this system, the bottom-up role of nutrient enrichment can have substantial impacts on community structure, trophic relationships, and, ultimately, the productivity values of the ecosystem.

The influence of body size on the ecology of coastal fish predators in the Bahamas

Body size is a fundamental structural characteristic of organisms, determining critical life history and physiological traits, and influencing population dynamics, community structure, and ecosystem function. For my dissertation, I focused on effects of body size on habitat use and diet of important coastal fish predators, as well as their influence on faunal communities in Bahamian wetlands. First, using acoustic telemetry and stable isotope analysis, I identified high variability in movement patterns and habitat use among individuals within a gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) and schoolmaster snapper (L. apodus) population. This intrapopulation variation was not explained by body size, but by individual behavior in habitat use. Isotope values differed between individuals that moved further distances and individuals that stayed close to their home sites, suggesting movement differences were related to specific patterns of foraging behavior. Subsequently, while investigating diet of schoolmaster snapper over a two-year period using stomach content and stable isotope analyses, I also found intrapopulation diet variation, mostly explained by differences in size class, individual behavior and temporal variability. I then developed a hypothesis-testing framework examining intrapopulation niche variation between size classes using stable isotopes. This framework can serve as baseline to categorize taxonomic or functional groupings into specific niche shift scenarios, as well as to help elucidate underlying mechanisms causing niche shifts in certain size classes. Finally, I examined the effect of different-sized fish predators on epifaunal community structure in shallow seagrass beds using exclusion experiments at two spatial scales. Overall, I found that predator effects were rather weak, with predator size and spatial scale having no impact on the community. Yet, I also found some evidence of strong interactions on particular common snapper prey. As Bahamian wetlands are increasingly threatened by human activities (e.g., overexploitation, habitat degradation), an enhanced knowledge of the ecology of organisms inhabiting these systems is crucial for developing appropriate conservation and management strategies. My dissertation research contributed to this effort by providing critical information about the resource use of important Bahamian fish predators, as well as their effect on faunal seagrass communities.

Chilling damage in a changing climate in coastal landscapes of the subtropical zone: a case study from south Florida

Extensive portions of the southern Everglades are characterized by series of elongated, raised peat ridges and tree islands oriented parallel to the predominant flow direction, separated by intervening sloughs. Tall herbs or woody species are associated with higher elevations and shorter emergent or floating species are associated with lower elevations. The organic soils in this “Ridge-and-Slough” landscape have been stable over millennia in many locations, but degrade over decades under altered hydrologic conditions. We examined soil, pore water, and leaf phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) distributions in six Ridge and Slough communities in Shark Slough, Everglades National Park. We found P enrichment to increase and N to decrease monotonically along a gradient from the most persistently flooded sloughs to rarely flooded ridge environments, with the most dramatic change associated with the transition from marsh to forest. Leaf N:P ratios indicated that the marsh communities were strongly P-limited, while data from several forest types suggested either N-limitation or co-limitation by N and P. Ground water stage in forests exhibited a daytime decrease and partial nighttime recovery during periods of surface exposure. The recovery phase suggested re-supply from adjacent flooded marshes or the underlying aquifer, and a strong hydrologic connection between ridge and slough. We therefore developed a simple steady-state model to explore a mechanism by which a phosphorus conveyor belt driven by both evapotranspiration and the regional flow gradient can contribute to the characteristic Ridge and Slough pattern. The model demonstrated that evapotranspiration sinks at higher elevations can draw in low concentration marsh waters, raising local soil and water P concentrations. Focusing of flow and nutrients at the evapotranspiration zone is not strong enough to overcome the regional gradient entirely, allowing the nutrient to spread downstream and creating an elongated concentration plume in the direction of flow. Our analyses suggest that autogenic processes involving the effects of initially small differences in topography, via their interactions with hydrology and nutrient availability, can produce persistent physiographic patterns in the organic sediments of the Everglades.

Changes in Community Structure of Sediment Bacteria Along the Florida Coastal Everglades Marsh–Mangrove–Seagrass Salinity Gradient

Community structure of sediment bacteria in the Everglades freshwater marsh, fringing mangrove forest, and Florida Bay seagrass meadows were described based on polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) patterns of 16S rRNA gene fragments and by sequencing analysis of DGGE bands. The DGGE patterns were correlated with the environmental variables by means of canonical correspondence analysis. There was no significant trend in the Shannon–Weiner index among the sediment samples along the salinity gradient. However, cluster analysis based on DGGE patterns revealed that the bacterial community structure differed according to sites. Not only were these salinity/vegetation regions distinct but the sediment bacteria communities were consistently different along the gradient from freshwater marsh, mangrove forest, eastern-central Florida Bay, and western Florida Bay. Actinobacteria- and Bacteroidetes/Chlorobi-like DNA sequences were amplified throughout all sampling sites. More Chloroflexi and members of candidate division WS3 were found in freshwater marsh and mangrove forest sites than in seagrass sites. The appearance of candidate division OP8-like DNA sequences in mangrove sites distinguished these communities from those of freshwater marsh. The seagrass sites were characterized by reduced presence of bands belonging to Chloroflexi with increased presence of those bands related to Cyanobacteria, γ-Proteobacteria, Spirochetes, and Planctomycetes. This included the sulfate-reducing bacteria, which are prevalent in marine environments. Clearly, bacterial communities in the sediment were different along the gradient, which can be explained mainly by the differences in salinity and total phosphorus.

Sea level rise and South Florida coastal forests

Coastal ecosystems lie at the forefront of sea level rise. We posit that before the onset of actual inundation, sea level rise will influence the species composition of coastal hardwood hammocks and buttonwood (Conocarpus erectus L.) forests of the Everglades National Park based on tolerance to drought and salinity. Precipitation is the major water source in coastal hammocks and is stored in the soil vadose zone, but vadose water will diminish with the rising water table as a consequence of sea level rise, thereby subjecting plants to salt water stress. A model is used to demonstrate that the constraining effect of salinity on transpiration limits the distribution of freshwater-dependent communities. Field data collected in hardwood hammocks and coastal buttonwood forests over 11 years show that halophytes have replaced glycophytes. We establish that sea level rise threatens 21 rare coastal species in Everglades National Park and estimate the relative risk to each species using basic life history and population traits. We review salinity conditions in the estuarine region over 1999–2009 and associate wide variability in the extent of the annual seawater intrusion to variation in freshwater inflows and precipitation. We also examine species composition in coastal and inland hammocks in connection with distance from the coast, depth to water table, and groundwater salinity. Though this study focuses on coastal forests and rare species of South Florida, it has implications for coastal forests threatened by saltwater intrusion across the globe.

Comparison of Belowground Biomass in C3- and C4-Dominated Mixed Communities in a Chesapeake Bay Brackish Marsh

Belowground biomass is a critical factor regulating ecosystem functions of coastal marshes, including soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation and the ability of these systems to keep pace with sea-level rise. Nevertheless, belowground biomass responses to environmental and vegetation changes have been given little emphasis marsh studies. Here we present a method using stable carbon isotopes and color to identify root and rhizomes of Schoenoplectus americanus (Pers.) Volk. ex Schinz and R. Keller (C3) and Spartina patens (Ait.) Muhl. (C4) occurring in C3− and C4-dominated communities in a Chesapeake Bay brackish marsh. The functional significance of the biomass classes we identified is underscored by differences in their chemistry, depth profiles, and variation in biomass and profiles relative to abiotic and biotic factors. C3 rhizomes had the lowest concentrations of cellulose (29.19%) and lignin (14.43%) and the lowest C:N (46.97) and lignin:N (0.16) ratios. We distinguished two types of C3 roots, and of these, the dark red C3 roots had anomalously high C:N (195.35) and lignin:N (1.14) ratios, compared with other root and rhizome classes examined here and with previously published values. The C4-dominated community had significantly greater belowground biomass (4119.1 g m−2) than the C3-dominated community (3256.9 g m−2), due to greater total root biomass and a 3.6-fold higher C3-root:rhizome ratio in the C4-dominated community. C3 rhizomes were distributed significantly shallower in the C4-dominated community, while C3 roots were significantly deeper. Variability in C3 rhizome depth distributions was explained primarily by C4 biomass, and C3 roots were explained primarily by water table height. Our results suggest that belowground biomass in this system is sensitive to slight variations in water table height (across an 8 cm range), and that the reduced overlap between C3 and C4 root profiles in the C4-dominated community may account for the greater total root biomass observed in that community. Given that future elevated atmospheric CO2 and accelerated sea-level rise are likely to increase C3 abundance in Atlantic and Gulf coast marshes, investigations that quantify how patterns of C3 and C4 belowground biomass respond to environmental and biological factors stand to improve our understanding of ecosystem-wide impacts of global changes on coastal wetlands.

Patterns of phosphorus, nitrogen and δ15N along a peat development gradient in a coastal mire, Panama

Differentiation of limiting nutrients within small spatial scales has been observed in coastal mangrove forests, but research on other tropical peatlands suggests it is a more widespread phenomenon. In the Changuinola mire of coastal Panama, oligotrophy was hypothesized to increase along a gradient of peat development (peat doming). Nutrient and carbon concentration of leaf tissue, soil, and soil porewater were characterised over a successive sequence of plant communities along the gradient. Soil phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) concentrations decreased from 1200 μg P g−1 and 27 mg N g−1 to 377 μg P g−1 and 22 mg N g−1 within 2.7 km into the mire interior. These changes coincided with an increase in soil and average leaf N:P molar ratios from 52–128 and 24–41, respectively. Soil P was strongly related to leaf P and soil N:P to foliar N:P. There was a wide range in δ15N values for canopy (4.0 to −9.4‰), Campnosperma panamense (4.0 to −7.8‰) and understorey (4.8 to −3.1‰) species. Foliar δ15N values of canopy species were strongly related to soil N:P, soil P and leaf P. The depleted foliar δ15N values appeared to be an effect of both the N atmospheric source and P limitation. Here, P limitation is likely associated with ombrotrophic conditions that developed as hydrologic inputs became dominated by precipitation.

Tracking the Effects of Salt Water Encroachment on South Florida Coastal Ecotones Using Mollusks

Many coastal wetland communities of south Florida have been cut off from freshwater sheet flow for decades and are migrating landward due to salt-water encroachment. A paleoecological study using mollusks was conducted to assess the rates and effects of salt-water encroachment due to freshwater diversion and sea level rise on coastal wetland basins in Biscayne National Park. Modem mollusk distributions taken from 226 surface sites were used to determine local habitat affinities which were applied to infer past environments from mollusk distributions found in soil cores. Mollusks species compositions were found to be strongly correlated to habitat and salinity, providing reliable predictions. Wetland soils were cored to bedrock at 36locations. Mollusks were abundant throughout the cores and 15 of the 20 most abundant taxa served as bioindicators of salinity and habitat. Historic accounts coupled with mollusk based inference models indicate (1) increasing salinity levels along the coast and encroaching into the interior with mangroves communities currently migrating westward, (2) replacement of a mixed graminoid-mangrove zone by a dense monoculture of dwarf mangroves, and (3) a confinement of freshwater and freshwater graminoid marsh to landward areas between urban developments and drainage canals.

Ocean Acidification Outweighs Nutrient Effects in Structuring Seagrass Epiphyte Communities

Developing a framework for assessing interactions between multiple anthropogenic stressors remains an important goal in environmental research. In coastal ecosystems, the relative effects of aspects of global climate change (e.g. CO2 concentrations) and localized stressors (e.g. eutrophication), in combination, have received limited attention. Using a long-term (11 month) field experiment, we examine how epiphyte assemblages in a tropical seagrass meadow respond to factorial manipulations of dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2(aq)) and nutrient enrichment. In situ CO2(aq) manipulations were conducted using clear, open-top chambers, which replicated carbonate parameter forecasts for the year 2100. Nutrient enrichment consisted of monthly additions of slow-release fertilizer, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), to the sediments at rates equivalent to theoretical maximum rates of anthropogenic loading within the region (1.54 g N m−2 d−1 and 0.24 g P m−2 d−1). Epiphyte community structure was assessed on a seasonal basis and revealed declines in the abundance of coralline algae, along with increases in filamentous algae under elevated CO2(aq). Surprisingly, nutrient enrichment had no effect on epiphyte community structure or overall epiphyte loading. Interactions between CO2(aq) and nutrient enrichment were not detected. Furthermore, CO2(aq)-mediated responses in the epiphyte community displayed strong seasonality, suggesting that climate change studies in variable environments should be conducted over extended time-scales. Synthesis. The observed responses indicate that for certain locations, global stressors such as ocean acidification may take precedence over local eutrophication in altering the community structure of seagrass epiphyte assemblages. Given that nutrient-driven algal overgrowth is commonly cited as a widespread cause of seagrass decline, our findings highlight that alternate climate change forces may exert proximate control over epiphyte community structure.

Evaluating the Distribution of Terrestrial Dissolved Organic Matter in a Complex Coastal Ecosystem Using Fluorescence Spectroscopy

The coastal zone of the Florida Keys features the only living coral reef in the continental United States and as such represents a unique regional environmental resource. Anthropogenic pressures combined with climate disturbances such as hurricanes can affect the biogeochemistry of the region and threaten the health of this unique ecosystem. As such, water quality monitoring has historically been implemented in the Florida Keys, and six spatially distinct zones have been identified. In these studies however, dissolved organic matter (DOM) has only been studied as a quantitative parameter, and DOM composition can be a valuable biogeochemical parameter in assessing environmental change in coastal regions. Here we report the first data of its kind on the application of optical properties of DOM, in particular excitation emission matrix fluorescence with parallel factor analysis (EEM-PARAFAC), throughout these six Florida Keys regions in an attempt to assess spatial differences in DOM sources. Our data suggests that while DOM in the Florida Keys can be influenced by distant terrestrial environments such as the Everglades, spatial differences in DOM distribution were also controlled in part by local surface runoff/fringe mangroves, contributions from seasgrass communities, as well as the reefs and waters from the Florida Current. Application of principal component analysis (PCA) of the relative abundance of EEM-PARAFAC components allowed for a clear distinction between the sources of DOM (allochthonous vs. autochthonous), between different autochthonous sources and/or the diagenetic status of DOM, and further clarified contribution of terrestrial DOM in zones where levels of DOM were low in abundance. The combination between EEM-PARAFAC and PCA proved to be ideally suited to discern DOM composition and source differences in coastal zones with complex hydrology and multiple DOM sources.

Using stable isotopes to investigate trophic interactions of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Florida Coastal Everglades

Top predators are known for their ability to 1) affect their communities through predation and 2) induce behavioral modifications. Recent research suggests that they may also play “bottom-up” roles in ecosystems, including transporting materials within and across habitat boundaries. The Florida Coastal Everglades (FCE) is an “upside-down” oligotrophic estuary where productivity decreases from the mouth of the estuary to freshwater marshes. Therefore, movements of predators may be important in ecosystem dynamics. While other estuarine predators in the FCE have been shown to potentially move nutrients among ecosystems, the potential for bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) to play a similar role in the systems has not been investigated. Stable isotope analysis of biopsy samples were used to investigate spatial variation in trophic interactions of dolphins to see if they might transport nutrients. Values of δ15 N suggest dolphins feed at a trophic level similar to other top predators in the ecosystem while δ13 C suggest that dolphins forage largely within food webs where they were sampled rather than transporting nutrients across ecosystem boundaries. The exception may be dolphins foraging in rivers, which may transport nutrients downstream; a pattern opposite to that of bull sharks and alligators in these habitats. Further research is necessary to predict how future changes occurring due to restoration and climate will affect the ecological roles of dolphins.