The winds of change? Exploring political effects of Hurricane Andrew

Before dawn on August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew smashed into south Florida, particularly southern Dade County, and soon become the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. Andrew's impacts quickly overwhelmed local and state emergency response capabilities and eventually required major federal assistance, including regular military units. While the social and economic impacts of Hurricane Andrew are relatively well researched, much less attention has been given to its possible political effects. ^ Focusing on incumbent officeholders at three levels (municipal, state legislative, and statewide) who stood for reelection after Hurricane Andrew, this study seeks to determine whether they experienced any political effects from Andrew. That is, this study explores the possible interaction between the famous “incumbency advantage” and an “extreme event,” in this case a natural disaster. The specific foci were (1) campaigns and campaigning (a research process that included 43 personal interviews), and (2) election results before and after the event. ^ Given well-documented response problems, the working hypothesis was that incumbents experienced largely negative political fallout from the disaster. The null hypothesis was that incumbents saw no net political effects, but the reverse hypothesis was also considered: incumbents benefited politically from the event. ^ In the end, this study found that although the election process was physically disrupted, especially in south Dade County, the disaster largely reinforced the incumbency advantage. More specifically, the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew allowed most incumbent officeholders to (1) enhance constituency service, (2) associate themselves with the flow of external assistance, (3) achieve major personal visibility and media coverage, and yet (4) appear non-political or at least above normal politics. Overall, this combination allowed incumbents to very effectively “campaign without campaigning,” a point borne out by post-Andrew election results. ^

Systematic Analysis of Change in Restaurant Operations

The successful management of change is a key factor in ensuring growth in the restaurant industry. The author discusses how to evaluate and act on a management change plan beginning with a total understanding and knowledge of the environment within which it operates.

Managing small-scale commercial fisheries for adaptive capacity: Insights from dynamic social-ecological drivers of change in Monterey Bay

Globally, small-scale fisheries (SSFs) are driven by climate, governance, and market factors of social-ecological change, presenting both challenges and opportunities. The ability of small-scale fishermen and buyers to adapt to changing conditions allows participants to survive economic or environmental disturbances and to benefit from optimal conditions. This study presented here identifies key large-scale factors that drive SSFs in California to shift focus among targets and that dictate long-term trends in landings. We use Elinor Ostrom’s Social-Ecological System (SES) framework to apply an interdisciplinary approach when identifying potential factors and when understanding the complex dynamics of these fisheries. We analyzed the interactions among Monterey Bay SSFs over the past four decades since the passage of the Magnuson Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976. In this region, the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and market squid (Loligo opalescens) fisheries comprise a tightly linked system where shifting focus among fisheries is a key element to adaptive capacity and reduced social and ecological vulnerability. Using a cluster analysis of landings, we identified four modes from 1974 to 2012 that were dominated by squid, sardine, anchovy, or lacked any dominance, enabling us to identify external drivers attributed to a change in fishery dominance during seven distinct transition points. Overall, we show that market and climate factors drive the transitions among dominance modes. Governance phases most dictated long-term trends in landings and are best viewed as a response to changes in perceived biomass and thus a proxy for biomass. Our findings suggest that globally, small-scale fishery managers should consider enabling shifts in effort among fisheries and retaining existing flexibility, as adaptive capacity is a critical determinant for social and ecological resilience.

Acculturation and Hispanic identity/ethnicity as a predictor of change on the brief situational confidence questionnaire

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether level of acculturation among Hispanic adolescent males (n = 174) influenced treatment outcome in a substance abuse program, specifically on the Brief Situational Confidence Questionnaire (BSCQ) which measures relapse confidence. It was hypothesized that lower levels of acculturation were likely to be predictive of positive change, whereas higher levels of acculturation were likely to be predictive of no change or negative change. It was found that adolescents changed over time in BSCQ scores regardless of which acculturation variable was measured. Contrary to expectations, for those adolescents placed in family treatment, place of birth was not significantly associated with treatment response. However, both, U.S. and non-U.S. born adolescents demonstrated a change over time when receiving family treatment, suggesting that the family substance abuse treatment utilized in this intervention effected change over time.

Schools and the formation of Black identity during the Civil Rights Movement: Change and resistance in Holly Springs, Mississippi, 1964--1974

Desegregation of social and public spaces was the most visible result of the Civil Rights Movement. After 1960, the integration of schools in Mississippi became a source of conflict. The social change of Civil Rights attacked the social order of White Resistance that supported the state superstructure. The public schools were a place for the discovery of identity for Blacks. The integrated on of the schools caused many Whites to leave rather than be integrated with Blacks. Desegregation of schools was also a slow process because the local and state government could not enforce the decisions of the US Courts, leading Blacks to realize their place in American society could only be secured through individual action. ^ This work explains the role of schooling during the integration of the Holly Springs Separate School System. The process of forging a new identity by local Blacks is examined against the forces of social change and resistance. I addition, this work examines the perils for the Blacks as they faced the uncertainty of change in the crucial Civil Rights years between 1964 and 1974. ^ This work analyzes how the Black community dealt with the problems triggered by the desegregation of the school system in Holly Springs, of a constructed social condition, a psychological state of being, the realities of racism and segregation, and the change and resistance between the individual and the collective. It is based on six months of field work investigation. Although the schools were a crucial aspect of community life for Blacks and Whites, Blacks did form their identity in them. Other institutions, such churches were more crucial. Second, the aspect of politeness and belief in law made the experience in Holly Springs unique to that place, and thus, warrants further study to determine its place within the Civil Rights Movement. Finally, while the political and economic control of Holly Springs remained with Whites, desegregation led to the resegregation of the public schools: as Whites left to private schools. ^

A multi-scale assessment of physiological processes in arctic tundra plants under natural and simulated climate change scenarios

Climate warming is predicted to cause an increase in the growing season by as much as 30% for regions of the arctic tundra. This will have a significant effect on the physiological activity of the vascular plant species and the ecosystem as a whole. The need to understand the possible physiological change within this ecosystem is confounded by the fact that research in this extreme environment has been limited to periods when conditions are most favorable, mid June–mid August. This study attempted to develop the most comprehensive understanding to date of the physiological activity of seven tundra plant species in the Alaskan Arctic under natural and lengthened growing season conditions. Four interrelated lines of research, scaling from cellular signals to ecosystem processes, set the foundation for this study. ^ I established an experiment looking at the physiological response of arctic sedges to soil temperature stress with emphasis on the role of the hormone abscisic acid (ABA). A manipulation was also developed where the growing season was lengthened and soils were warmed in an attempt to determine the maximum physiological capacity of these seven vascular species. Additionally, the physiological capacities of four evergreens were tested in the subnivean environment along with the potential role anthocyanins play in their activity. The measurements were scaled up to determine the physiological role of these evergreens in maintaining ecosystem carbon fluxes. ^ These studies determined that soil temperature differentials significantly affect vascular plant physiology. ABA appears to be a physiological modifier that limits stomatal processes when root temperatures are low. Photosynthetic capacity was limited by internal plant physiological mechanisms in the face of a lengthened growing season. Therefore shifts in ecosystem carbon dynamics are driven by changes in species composition and biomass production on a per/unit area basis. These studies also found that changes in soil temperatures will have a greater effect of physiological processes than would the same magnitude of change in air temperature. The subnivean environment exhibits conditions that are favorable for photosynthetic activity in evergreen species. These measurements when scaled to the ecosystem have a significant role in limiting the system's carbon source capacity. ^

Airborne laser quantification of Florida shoreline and beach volume change caused by hurricanes

This dissertation combines three separate studies that measure coastal change using airborne laser data. The initial study develops a method for measuring subaerial and subaqueous volume change incrementally alongshore, and compares those measurements to shoreline change in order to quantify their relationship in Palm Beach County, Florida. A poor correlation (R2 = 0.39) was found between shoreline and volume change before the hurricane season in the northern section of Palm Beach County because of beach nourishment and inlet dynamics. However, a relatively high R2 value of 0.78 in the southern section of Palm Beach County was found due to little disturbance from tidal inlets and coastal engineering projects. The shoreline and volume change caused by the 2004 hurricane season was poorly correlated with R 2 values of 0.02 and 0.42 for the north and south sections, respectively. The second study uses airborne laser data to investigate if there is a significant relationship between shoreline migration before and after Hurricane Ivan near Panama City, Florida. In addition, the relationship between shoreline change and subaerial volume was quantified and a new method for quantifying subaqueous sediment change was developed. No significant spatial relationship was found between shoreline migration before and after the hurricane. Utilization of a single coefficient to represent all relationships between shoreline and subaerial volume change was found to be problematic due to the spatial variability in the linear relationship. Differences in bathymetric data show only a small portion of sediment was transported beyond the active zone and most sediment remained within the active zone despite the occurrence of a hurricane. The third study uses airborne laser bathymetry to measure the offshore limit of change, and compares that location with calculated depth of closures and subaqueous geomorphology. There appears to be strong geologic control of the depth of closure in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. North of Hillsboro Inlet, hydrodynamics control the geomorphology which in turn indicates the location of the depth of closure.

Diatom-based paleolimnological reconstruction of regional climate and local land-use change from a protected sinkhole lake in southern Florida, USA

Despite their sensitivity to climate variability, few of the abundant sinkhole lakes of Florida have been the subject of paleolimnological studies to discern patterns of change in aquatic communities and link them to climate drivers. However, deep sinkhole lakes can contain highly resolved paleolimnological records that can be used to track long-term climate variability and its interaction with effects of land-use change. In order to understand how limnological changes were regulated by regional climate variability and further modified by local land-use change in south Florida, we explored diatom assemblage variability over centennial and semi-decadal time scales in an ~11,000-yr and a ~150-yr sediment core extracted from a 21-m deep sinkhole lake, Lake Annie, on the protected property of Archbold Biological Station. We linked variance in diatom assemblage structure to changes in water total phosphorus, color, and pH using diatom-based transfer functions. Reconstructions suggest the sinkhole depression contained a small, acidic, oligotrophic pond ~11000–7000 cal yr BP that gradually deepened to form a humic lake by ~4000 cal yr BP, coinciding with the onset of modern precipitation regimes and the stabilization of sea-level indicated by corresponding palynological records. The lake then contained stable, acidophilous planktonic and benthic algal communities for several thousand years. In the early AD 1900s, that community shifted to one diagnostic of an even lower pH (~5.6), likely resulting from acid precipitation. Further transitions over the past 25 yr reflect recovery from acidification and intensified sensitivity to climate variability caused by enhanced watershed runoff from small drainage ditches dug during the mid-twentieth Century on the surrounding property.

The utility of an Integrated Qualitative /Quantitative Data Analytic Strategy (IQ -DAS) to evaluate the impact of youth development interventions to positive qualitative change in the life course

This study reports one of the first controlled studies to examine the impact of a school based positive youth development program (Lerner, Fisher, & Weinberg, 2000) on promoting qualitative change in life course experiences as a positive intervention outcome. The study built on a recently proposed relational developmental methodological metanarrative (Overton, 1998) and advances in use of qualitative research methods (Denzin & Lincoln, 2000). The study investigated the use the Life Course Interview (Clausen, 1998) and an integrated qualitative and quantitative data analytic strategy (IQ-DAS) to provide empirical documentation of the impact the Changing Lives Program on qualitative change in positive identity in a multicultural population of troubled youth in an alternative public high school. The psychosocial life course intervention approach used in this study draws its developmental framework from both psychosocial developmental theory (Erikson, 1968) and life course theory (Elder, 1998) and its intervention strategies from the transformative pedagogy of Freire's (1983/1970). ^ Using the 22 participants in the Intervention Condition and the 10 participants in the Control Condition, RMANOVAs found significantly more positive qualitative change in personal identity for program participants relative to the non-intervention control condition. In addition, the 2X2X2X3 mixed design RMANOVA in which Time (pre, post) was the repeated factor and Condition (Intervention versus Control), Gender, and Ethnicity the between group factors, also found significant interactions for the Time by Gender and Time by Ethnicity. ^ Moreover, the directionality of the basic pattern of change was positive for participants of both genders and all three ethnic groups. The pattern of the moderation effects also indicated a marked tendency for participants in the intervention group to characterize their sense of self as more secure and less negative at the end of the their first semester in the intervention, that was stable across both genders and all three ethnicities. The basic differential pattern of an increase in the intervention condition of a positive characterization of sense of self relative to both pre test and relative to the directionality of the movement of the non-intervention controls, was stable across both genders and all three ethnic groups. ^

Airborne Laser Quantification of Florida Shoreline and Beach Volume Change Caused by Hurricanes

This dissertation combines three separate studies that measure coastal change using airborne laser data. The initial study develops a method for measuring subaerial and subaqueous volume change incrementally alongshore, and compares those measurements to shoreline change in order to quantify their relationship in Palm Beach County, Florida. A poor correlation (R2 = 0.39) was found between shoreline and volume change before the hurricane season in the northern section of Palm Beach County because of beach nourishment and inlet dynamics. However, a relatively high R2 value of 0.78 in the southern section of Palm Beach County was found due to little disturbance from tidal inlets and coastal engineering projects. The shoreline and volume change caused by the 2004 hurricane season was poorly correlated with R2 values of 0.02 and 0.42 for the north and south sections, respectively. The second study uses airborne laser data to investigate if there is a significant relationship between shoreline migration before and after Hurricane Ivan near Panama City, Florida. In addition, the relationship between shoreline change and subaerial volume was quantified and a new method for quantifying subaqueous sediment change was developed. No significant spatial relationship was found between shoreline migration before and after the hurricane. Utilization of a single coefficient to represent all relationships between shoreline and subaerial volume change was found to be problematic due to the spatial variability in the linear relationship. Differences in bathymetric data show only a small portion of sediment was transported beyond the active zone and most sediment remained within the active zone despite the occurrence of a hurricane. The third study uses airborne laser bathymetry to measure the offshore limit of change, and compares that location with calculated depth of closures and subaqueous geomorphology. There appears to be strong geologic control of the depth of closure in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. North of Hillsboro Inlet, hydrodynamics control the geomorphology which in turn indicates the location of the depth of closure.

The utility of an integrated qualitative/quantitative data analytic strategy (IQ-DAS) to evaluate the impact of youth development interventions on positive qualitative change in the life course

This study reports one of the first controlled studies to examine the impact of a school based positive youth development program (Lerner, Fisher, & Weinberg, 2000) on promoting qualitative change in life course experiences as a positive intervention outcome. The study built on a recently proposed relational developmental methodological metanarrative (Overton, 1998) and advances in use of qualitative research methods (Denzin & Lincoln, 2000). The study investigated the use the Life Course Interview (Clausen, 1998) and an integrated qualitative and quantitative data analytic strategy (IQDAS) to provide empirical documentation of the impact the Changing Lives Program on qualitative change in positive identity in a multicultural population of troubled youth in an alternative public high school. The psychosocial life course intervention approach used in this study draws its developmental framework from both psychosocial developmental theory (Erikson, 1968) and life course theory (Elder, 1998) and its intervention strategies from the transformative pedagogy of Freire's (1983/1970). Using the 22 participants in the Intervention Condition and the 10 participants in the Control Condition, RMANOVAs found significantly more positive qualitative change in personal identity for program participants relative to the non-intervention control condition. In addition, the 2X2X2X3 mixed design RMANOVA in which Time (pre, post) was the repeated factor and Condition (Intervention versus Control), Gender, and Ethnicity the between group factors, also found significant interactions for the Time by Gender and Time by Ethnicity. Moreover, the directionality of the basic pattern of change was positive for participants of both genders and all three ethnic groups. The pattern of the moderation effects also indicated a marked tendency for participants in the intervention group to characterize their sense of self as more secure and less negative at the end of the their first semester in the intervention, that was stable across both genders and all three ethnicities. The basic differential pattern of an increase in the intervention condition of a positive characterization of sense of self relative to both pre test and relative to the directionality of the movement of the non-intervention controls, was stable across both genders and all three ethnic groups.