Quantifying the effects of temperature and concentration on variable-density flow in numerical modeling of groundwater systems: Implications for predictive uncertainty and data collection

Groundwater systems of different densities are often mathematically modeled to understand and predict environmental behavior such as seawater intrusion or submarine groundwater discharge. Additional data collection may be justified if it will cost-effectively aid in reducing the uncertainty of a model's prediction. The collection of salinity, as well as, temperature data could aid in reducing predictive uncertainty in a variable-density model. However, before numerical models can be created, rigorous testing of the modeling code needs to be completed. This research documents the benchmark testing of a new modeling code, SEAWAT Version 4. The benchmark problems include various combinations of density-dependent flow resulting from variations in concentration and temperature. The verified code, SEAWAT, was then applied to two different hydrological analyses to explore the capacity of a variable-density model to guide data collection. ^ The first analysis tested a linear method to guide data collection by quantifying the contribution of different data types and locations toward reducing predictive uncertainty in a nonlinear variable-density flow and transport model. The relative contributions of temperature and concentration measurements, at different locations within a simulated carbonate platform, for predicting movement of the saltwater interface were assessed. Results from the method showed that concentration data had greater worth than temperature data in reducing predictive uncertainty in this case. Results also indicated that a linear method could be used to quantify data worth in a nonlinear model. ^ The second hydrological analysis utilized a model to identify the transient response of the salinity, temperature, age, and amount of submarine groundwater discharge to changes in tidal ocean stage, seasonal temperature variations, and different types of geology. The model was compared to multiple kinds of data to (1) calibrate and verify the model, and (2) explore the potential for the model to be used to guide the collection of data using techniques such as electromagnetic resistivity, thermal imagery, and seepage meters. Results indicated that the model can be used to give insight to submarine groundwater discharge and be used to guide data collection. ^

Hydrological dynamics between a coastal aquifer and the adjacent estuarine system, Biscayne Bay, South Florida

Geochemical and geophysical approaches have been used to investigate the freshwater and saltwater dynamics in the coastal Biscayne Aquifer and Biscayne Bay. Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, and concentrations of Sr2+ and Ca2+ were combined in two geochemical mixing models to provide estimates of the various freshwater inputs (precipitation, canal water, and groundwater) to Biscayne Bay and the coastal canal system in South Florida. Shallow geophysical electromagnetic and direct current resistivity surveys were used to image the geometry and stratification of the saltwater mixing zone in the near coastal (less than 1km inland) Biscayne Aquifer. The combined stable isotope and trace metal models suggest a ratio of canal input-precipitation-groundwater of 38%–52%–10% in the wet season and 37%–58%–5% in the dry season with an error of 25%, where most (20%) of the error was attributed to the isotope regression model, while the remaining 5% error was attributed to the Sr2+/Ca2+ mixing model. These models suggest rainfall is the dominate source of freshwater to Biscayne Bay. For a bay-wide water budget that includes saltwater and freshwater mixing, fresh groundwater accounts for less than 2% of the total input. A similar Sr 2+/Ca2+ tracer model indicates precipitation is the dominate source in 9 out of 10 canals that discharge into Biscayne Bay. The two-component mixing model converged for 100% of the freshwater canal samples in this study with 63% of the water contributed to the canals coming from precipitation and 37% from groundwater inputs ±4%. There was a seasonal shift from 63% precipitation input in the dry season to 55% precipitation input in the wet season. The three end-member mixing model converged for only 60% of the saline canal samples possibly due to non-conservative behavior of Sr2+ and Ca2+ in saline groundwater discharging into the canal system. Electromagnetic and Direct Current resistivity surveys were successful at locating and estimating the geometry and depth of the freshwater/saltwater interface in the Biscayne Aquifer at two near coastal sites. A saltwater interface that deepened as the survey moved inland was detected with a maximum interpreted depth to the interface of 15 meters, approximately 0.33 km inland from the shoreline. ^

Carbon isotopic composition of cypress trees from South Florida and changing hydrologic condition

δ13C values were determined from cypresstree rings from two different study areas in SouthFlorida. One site is located in the Southeastern Everglades Marsh, where pond cypress (Taxodium ascendens) was sampled from tree islands (annual tree rings from 1970 to 2000). Bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) trees were sampled at the other site, located along the Loxahatchee River in a coastal wetland (decadal tree rings from 1830 to 1990). The isotopic time series from both sites display different, location-specific information. The pond cypressisotopic time series has a positive correlation with the total amount of annual precipitation, while the bald cypress data from the Loxahatchee River study area had two different records dependent on the level of saltwater stress. In general, for terrestrial trees growing in a temperate environment, water stress causes an increase in water-use efficiency (WUE) resulting in a relative 13C enrichment. Yet, trees growing in wetland settings in some cases do not respond in the same manner. We propose a conceptual model based on changes in carbon assimilation and isotopic fractionation as controlled by differences in stomatal resistance (water stress) and mesophyll resistance (biochemical and nutrient related) to explain the isotopic records from both sites. With further work and a longer time series, our approach may be tested, and used to reconstruct change in hydroperiods further back in time, and potentially provide a baseline for wetland restoration.

Sea level rise and South Florida coastal forests

Coastal ecosystems lie at the forefront of sea level rise. We posit that before the onset of actual inundation, sea level rise will influence the species composition of coastal hardwood hammocks and buttonwood (Conocarpus erectus L.) forests of the Everglades National Park based on tolerance to drought and salinity. Precipitation is the major water source in coastal hammocks and is stored in the soil vadose zone, but vadose water will diminish with the rising water table as a consequence of sea level rise, thereby subjecting plants to salt water stress. A model is used to demonstrate that the constraining effect of salinity on transpiration limits the distribution of freshwater-dependent communities. Field data collected in hardwood hammocks and coastal buttonwood forests over 11 years show that halophytes have replaced glycophytes. We establish that sea level rise threatens 21 rare coastal species in Everglades National Park and estimate the relative risk to each species using basic life history and population traits. We review salinity conditions in the estuarine region over 1999–2009 and associate wide variability in the extent of the annual seawater intrusion to variation in freshwater inflows and precipitation. We also examine species composition in coastal and inland hammocks in connection with distance from the coast, depth to water table, and groundwater salinity. Though this study focuses on coastal forests and rare species of South Florida, it has implications for coastal forests threatened by saltwater intrusion across the globe.

Flux of organic carbon in a riverine mangrove wetland in the Florida Coastal Everglades

Short-term (daily) and seasonal variations in concentration and flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were examined over 15 tidal cycles in a riverine mangrove wetland along Shark River, Florida in 2003. Due to the influence of seasonal rainfall and wind patterns on Shark River’s hydrology, samplings were made to include wet, dry and transitional (Norte) seasons. We used a flume extending from a tidal creek to a basin forest to measure vertical (vegetated soil/water column) and horizontal (mangrove forest/tidal creek) flux of DOC. We found significant (p < 0.05) variations in surface water temperature, salinity, conductivity, pH and mean concentration of DOC with season. Water temperature and salinity followed seasonal patterns of air temperature and rainfall, while mean DOC concentration was highest during the dry season (May), followed by the wet (October) and ‘Norte’ (December) seasons. This pattern of DOC concentration may be due to a combination of litter production and inundation pattern of the wetland. In contrast to daily (between tides) variation in DOC flux between the mangrove forest and tidal creek, daily variations of mean water quality were not significant. However, within-tide variation of DOC flux, dissolved oxygen content and salinity was observed. This indicated that the length of inundation and water source (freshwater vs. saltwater) variation across tidal cycles influenced water quality and DOC flux in the water column. Net DOC export was measured in October and December, suggesting the mangrove forest was a source of DOC to the adjacent tidal creek during these periods. Net annual export of DOC from the fringe mangrove to both the tidal creek and basin mangrove forest was 56 g C m−2 year−1. The seasonal pattern in our flux results indicates that DOC flux from this mangrove forest may be governed by both freshwater discharge and tidal range.

Determining Spatial and Temporal Inputs of Freshwater, Including Submarine Groundwater Discharge, to a Subtropical Estuary Using Geochemical Tracers, Biscayne Bay, South Florida

Geochemical mixing models were used to decipher the dominant source of freshwater (rainfall, canal discharge, or groundwater discharge) to Biscayne Bay, an estuary in south Florida. Discrete samples of precipitation, canal water, groundwater, and bay surface water were collected monthly for 2 years and analyzed for salinity, stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, and Sr2+/Ca2+ concentrations. These geochemical tracers were used in three separate mixing models and then combined to trace the magnitude and timing of the freshwater inputs to the estuary. Fresh groundwater had an isotopic signature (δ 18O = −2.66‰, δD −7.60‰) similar to rainfall (δ 18O = −2.86‰, δD = −4.78‰). Canal water had a heavy isotopic signature (δ 18O = −0.46‰, δD  = −2.48‰) due to evaporation. This made it possible to use stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen to separate canal water from precipitation and groundwater as a source of freshwater into the bay. A second model using Sr2+/Ca2+ ratios was developed to discern fresh groundwater inputs from precipitation inputs. Groundwater had a Sr2+/Ca2+ ratio of 0.07, while precipitation had a dissimilar ratio of 0.89. When combined, these models showed a freshwater input ratio of canal/precipitation/groundwater of 37%:53%:10% in the wet season and 40%:55%:5% in the dry season with an error of ±25%. For a bay-wide water budget that includes saltwater and freshwater mixing, fresh groundwater accounts for 1–2% of the total fresh and saline water input.

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Groundwater Salinity in South Florida

A combination of statistical and interpolation methods and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis was used to evaluate the spatial and temporal changes in groundwater Cl− concentrations in Collier and Lee Counties (southwestern Florida), and Miami-Dade and Broward Counties (southeastern Florida), since 1985. In southwestern Florida, the average Cl− concentrations in the shallow wells (0–43 m) in Collier and Lee Counties increased from 132 mg L−1 in 1985 to 230 mg L−1 in 2000. The average Cl− concentrations in the deep wells (>43 m) of southwestern Florida increased from 392 mg L−1 in 1985 to 447 mg L−1 in 2000. Results also indicated a positive correlation between the mean sea level and Cl− concentrations and between the mean sea level and groundwater levels for the shallow wells. Concentrations in the Biscayne Aquifer (southeastern Florida) were significantly higher than those of southwestern Florida. The average Cl− concentrations increased from 159 mg L−1 in 1985 to 470 mg L−1 in 2010 for the shallow wells (<33 m) and from 1360 mg L−1 in 1985 to 2050 mg L−1 in 2010 for the deep wells (>33 m). In the Biscayne Aquifer, wells showed a positive or negative correlation between mean sea level and Cl− concentrations according to their location with respect to the saltwater intrusion line. Wells located inland behind canal control structures and west of the saltwater intrusion line showed negative correlation values, whereas wells located east of the saltwater intrusion line showed positive values. Overall, the results indicated that since 1985, there was a potential decline in the available freshwater resources estimated at about 12–17% of the available drinking-quality groundwater of the southeastern study area located in the Biscayne Aquifer.

Biogeochemical Effects of Simulated Sea Level Rise on Carbon Loss in an Everglades Mangrove Peat Soil

Saltwater intrusion and inundation can affect soil microbial activity, which regulates the carbon (C) balance in mangroves and helps to determine if these coastal forests can keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). This study evaluated the effects of increased salinity (+15 ppt), increased inundation (−8 cm), and their combination, on soil organic C loss from a mangrove peat soil (Everglades, Florida, USA) under simulated tides. Soil respiration (CO2 flux), methane (CH4) flux, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production, and porewater nutrient concentrations were quantified. Soil respiration was the major pathway of soil organic C loss (94–98%) and was approximately 90% higher in the control water level than the inundated treatment under elevated salinity. Respiration rate increased with water temperature, but depended upon salinity and tidal range. CH4 flux was minimal, while porewater DOC increased with a concomitant, significant decline in soil bulk density under increased inundation. Porewater ammonium increased (73%) with inundation and soluble reactive phosphorus increased (32%) with salinity. Overall, the decline in soil organic C mineralization from combined saltwater intrusion and prolonged inundation was not significant, but results suggest SLR could increase this soil’s susceptibility to peat collapse and accelerate nutrient and DOC export to adjacent Florida Bay.

Assessment of silicone polymer composites for the trace extraction of herbicides : a tool for environmental forensics

Passive samplers are not only a versatile tool to integrate environmental concentrations of pollutants, but also to avoid the use of live sentinel organisms for environmental monitoring. This study introduced the use of magnetic silicone polymer composites (Fe-PDMS) as passive sampling media to pre-concentrate a wide range of analytes from environmental settings. The composite samplers were assessed for their accumulation properties by performing lab experiments with two model herbicides (Atrazine and Irgarol 1051) and evaluated for their uptake properties from environmental settings (waters and sediments). The Fe-PDMS composites showed good accumulation of herbicides and pesticides from both freshwater and saltwater settings and the accumulation mechanism was positively correlated with the log Kow value of individual analytes. Results from the studies show that these composites could be easily used for a wide number of applications such as monitoring, cleanup, and/or bioaccumulation modeling, and as a non-intrusive and nondestructive monitoring tool for environmental forensic purposes.

SRS-6 mangroves, Shark River Slough

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Seagrass at TS/Ph-10

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

SRS-6 autosampler, Shark River Slough

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Seagrass at TS/Ph-9

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Field trip to SRS-5 during Caribbean Workshop- Litter traps at SRS-5 (Robert Twilley foreground)

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Seagrass at TS/Ph-10

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.