Improving the predictability of time series by chaotic parameter estimation

Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^

Representation of people of color in the nineteenth century slavery novel in Cuba and Brazil

This dissertation explores the similarities and differences which characterize the depiction of people of color in certain representative nineteenth century Cuban and Brazilian slavery novels as a function of the authorial approach of each territory's literary tradition toward the issues of slavery, racial prejudice, and people of color. The selected texts, derived from the peak periods in slavery literature of each territory, include Francisco , by Anselmo Snárez y Romero; Sab, by Gertrudis Gómez de Avellaneda; Cecilia Valdés , by Cirilo Villaverde; A escrava Isaura, by Bernardo Guimarães; O mulato, by Aluísio Azevedo; and Bom-Crioulo, by Adolfo Caminha. While the present study explores the enslavement, abuse, and discrimination of people of color as a consequence of a deep-seated discourse of power, privilege and racial superiority, it focuses more extensively on the representation of people of color, particularly in their capacity to constructively appropriate the cultural values of the white dominant group and recognize their identity as ambiguous. ^ Said's theories of Orientalist discourse and geography and formation as well as Dube's perspective on subaltern-oriented studies provide a theoretical framework for exploring the response of slavery writers whose common exposure to slavery but dissimilar socio-political contexts generate some startling findings. Crafted within a period of political repression, fear of black revolt, factional in-fighting as well as strong socioeconomic ties to the slaveholding class, the Cuban texts generally fashioned an approach to slavery as one marked by moderation, reform, and cultural counter discourse and consequently depict people of color with a more passive but culturally authentic outlook. On the other hand, the Brazilian response to the issue of slavery, steeped in an ideological amalgam of liberalism, positivism, republicanism, and abolitionism, is characterized by overt opposition to slavery and a representation of people of color that is less concerned with cross-cultural input but reclaims their humanity as highly educable and socially mobile persons in search of greater freedoms. Ultimately, there is a shared message of higher significance couched in the worthwhile mission of raising slaves to the level of men. ^

The representation of motherhood in contemporary Catalan fiction

This dissertation analyzes four twenty-first-century Catalan novels which present the complex positions occupied by mothers in the last seven decades. Its conceptual framework posits motherhood as both a changing social construction and a political institution in a constant state of flux. In Inma Monsó´s Todo un carácter (2001), Eva Piquer´s Una victoria diferente (2002), Carme Riera´s La mitad del alma (2004), and Najat El Hachmi´s El último patriarca (2008) motherhood is explored as a metaphorical act, a gender-constructing experience, as well as the locus of expression with regard to gender and power relations. During the dictatorship of Francisco Franco (1939–1975), the majority of women were excluded from public spaces, and forced to stay home to care for their husbands and children. Furthermore, the state criminalized abortion, made contraception and divorce illegal, and promoted an ideal of femininity based on silence, sacrifice, and self-denial. The political changes of the late 1970s allowed women greater personal autonomy, and many women writers began to challenge stereotypical views of women’s social roles. Yet in the 70s and 80s, the narratives of Esther Tusquets, Ana María Moix, and Montserrat Roig represent the mother as a repressive figure whom the daughter must reject in order to liberate herself and regain her voice. It is not until the 90s when the novelists Mercedes Abad, Maruja Torres, Carme Riera, Imma Monsó, Eva Piquer, and María Barbal rehumanize the mother figure, recovering their matrilineal heritage. However, far from suggesting a unified trend in representations of motherhood in Catalan fiction, the diverse points of view of the novels under discussion here reveal that differences in attitudes among women authors about mother-daughter conflict are far from resolved. The theoretical background for this dissertation draws mainly on the work of Adrienne Rich, Nancy Chodorow, and Julia Kristeva. It includes psychoanalytic studies as well as sociologically based essays by Anna López Puig, Amparo Acereda, Jacqueline Cruz, Barbara Zecchi, Ángeles de la Concha, and Raquel Osborne, among others.

A Panel Discussion on Representation of Violence in the Cinema

Lecture on the topic of the representation of violence in motion pictures, presented at Books & Books Coral Gables on January 29, 2013.

The Fullness of time

THE FULLNESS OF TIME is a novel about the quest for identity that transcends the limitations of moral duty, social status, and cultural conventions. Set in Tarpon Springs, Florida, in 1969, it is the story of Victor Lucas, a young Greek immigrant forced to go to war in Vietnam in another man's place in order to save the woman he loves. He must survive the war to return and reclaim his love and his rightful place in society. Based on the archetypal hero's quest as articulated by Joseph Campbell, the narrative is told from the limited third-person perspective of the main character. Though the journey is particular to Tarpon Springs in the 1960s, it echoes the human struggle and triumph in the wanderings of Ulysses. The novel's influences include Thomas Hardy's The Mayor of Casterbridge, but is also thematically related to contemporary works exploring cultural turbulence and upheaval.

The Validity of Broad and Narrow Personality Traits For Predicting Job Performance: The Differential Effects of Time

Research into the dynamicity of job performance criteria has found evidence suggesting the presence of rank-order changes to job performance scores across time as well as intraindividual trajectories in job performance scores across time. These findings have influenced a large body of research into (a) the dynamicity of validities of individual differences predictors of job performance and (b) the relationship between individual differences predictors of job performance and intraindividual trajectories of job performance. In the present dissertation, I addressed these issues within the context of the Five Factor Model of personality. The Five Factor Model is arranged hierarchically, with five broad higher-order factors subsuming a number of more narrowly tailored personality facets. Research has debated the relative merits of broad versus narrow traits for predicting job performance, but the entire body of research has addressed the issue from a static perspective -- by examining the relative magnitude of validities of global factors versus their facets. While research along these lines has been enlightening, theoretical perspectives suggest that the validities of global factors versus their facets may differ in their stability across time. Thus, research is needed to not only compare the relative magnitude of validities of global factors versus their facets at a single point in time, but also to compare the relative stability of validities of global factors versus their facets across time. Also necessary to advance cumulative knowledge concerning intraindividual performance trajectories is research into broad vs. narrow traits for predicting such trajectories. In the present dissertation, I addressed these issues using a four-year longitudinal design. The results indicated that the validities of global conscientiousness were stable across time, while the validities of conscientiousness facets were more likely to fluctuate. However, the validities of emotional stability and extraversion facets were no more likely to fluctuate across time than those of the factors. Finally, while some personality factors and facets predicted performance intercepts (i.e., performance at the first measurement occasion), my results failed to indicate a significant effect of any personality variable on performance growth. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

A Critique of the Representation of Violence in American Literature:

The purpose of this thesis was to draw new insights on Thomas Berger’s classic American novel, Little Big Man, and his representation of fictional violence that is a substantial aspect of any text on the Indian Wars and “Custer’s Last Stand”. History’s major world wars led to shifts in the political climate and a noted change in the way that violence was represented in the arts. Historical, fictional, and cinematic treatments of “Custer’s Last Stand” and violence were each considered in relation to the text. Berger's version of the famed story is a revision of history that shows the protagonist as a dual-member of two violent societies. The thesis concluded that Berger’s updated American legends and unique “white renegade” character led to a representation of violence that spoke to the current state of affairs in 1964 when the world was becoming much more hostile and chaotic place.