Pavement performance prediction using adaptive logic networks

Pavement performance is one of the most important components of the pavement management system. Prediction of the future performance of a pavement section is important in programming maintenance and rehabilitation needs. Models for predicting pavement performance have been developed on the basis of traffic and age. The purpose of this research is to extend the use of a relatively new approach to performance prediction in pavement performance modeling using adaptive logic networks (ALN). Adaptive logic networks have recently emerged as an effective alternative to artificial neural networks for machine learning tasks. ^ The ALN predictive methodology is applicable to a wide variety of contexts including prediction of roughness based indices, composite rating indices and/or individual pavement distresses. The ALN program requires key information about a pavement section, including the current distress indexes, pavement age, climate region, traffic and other variables to predict yearly performance values into the future. ^ This research investigates the effect of different learning rates of the ALN in pavement performance modeling. It can be used at both the network and project level for predicting the long term performance of a road network. Results indicate that the ALN approach is well suited for pavement performance prediction modeling and shows a significant improvement over the results obtained from other artificial intelligence approaches. ^

An automatic tuning strategy for local fuzzy logic ramp metering algorithm using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)

Freeway systems are becoming more congested each day. One contribution to freeway traffic congestion comprises platoons of on-ramp traffic merging into freeway mainlines. As a relatively low-cost countermeasure to the problem, ramp meters are being deployed in both directions of an 11-mile section of I-95 in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The local Fuzzy Logic (FL) ramp metering algorithm implemented in Seattle, Washington, has been selected for deployment. The FL ramp metering algorithm is powered by the Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC). The FLC depends on a series of parameters that can significantly alter the behavior of the controller, thus affecting the performance of ramp meters. However, the most suitable values for these parameters are often difficult to determine, as they vary with current traffic conditions. Thus, for optimum performance, the parameter values must be fine-tuned. This research presents a new method of fine tuning the FLC parameters using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). PSO attempts to optimize several important parameters of the FLC. The objective function of the optimization model incorporates the METANET macroscopic traffic flow model to minimize delay time, subject to the constraints of reasonable ranges of ramp metering rates and FLC parameters. To further improve the performance, a short-term traffic forecasting module using a discrete Kalman filter was incorporated to predict the downstream freeway mainline occupancy. This helps to detect the presence of downstream bottlenecks. The CORSIM microscopic simulation model was selected as the platform to evaluate the performance of the proposed PSO tuning strategy. The ramp-metering algorithm incorporating the tuning strategy was implemented using CORSIM's run-time extension (RTE) and was tested on the aforementioned I-95 corridor. The performance of the FLC with PSO tuning was compared with the performance of the existing FLC without PSO tuning. The results show that the FLC with PSO tuning outperforms the existing FL metering, fixed-time metering, and existing conditions without metering in terms of total travel time savings, average speed, and system-wide throughput.

Importance of storm events in controlling ecosystem structure and function in a Florida gulf coast estuary

From 8/95 to 2/01, we investigated the ecological effects of intra- and inter-annual variability in freshwater flow through Taylor Creek in southeastern Everglades National Park. Continuous monitoring and intensive sampling studies overlapped with an array of pulsed weather events that impacted physical, chemical, and biological attributes of this region. We quantified the effects of three events representing a range of characteristics (duration, amount of precipitation, storm intensity, wind direction) on the hydraulic connectivity, nutrient and sediment dynamics, and vegetation structure of the SE Everglades estuarine ecotone. These events included a strong winter storm in November 1996, Tropical Storm Harvey in September 1999, and Hurricane Irene in October 1999. Continuous hydrologic and daily water sample data were used to examine the effects of these events on the physical forcing and quality of water in Taylor Creek. A high resolution, flow-through sampling and mapping approach was used to characterize water quality in the adjacent bay. To understand the effects of these events on vegetation communities, we measured mangrove litter production and estimated seagrass cover in the bay at monthly intervals. We also quantified sediment deposition associated with Hurricane Irene's flood surge along the Buttonwood Ridge. These three events resulted in dramatic changes in surface water movement and chemistry in Taylor Creek and adjacent regions of Florida Bay as well as increased mangrove litterfall and flood surge scouring of seagrass beds. Up to 5 cm of bay-derived mud was deposited along the ridge adjacent to the creek in this single pulsed event. These short-term events can account for a substantial proportion of the annual flux of freshwater and materials between the mangrove zone and Florida Bay. Our findings shed light on the capacity of these storm events, especially when in succession, to have far reaching and long lasting effects on coastal ecosystems such as the estuarine ecotone of the SE Everglades.

Importance of water source in controlling leaf leaching losses in a dwarf red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle L.) wetland

The southern Everglades mangrove ecotone is characterized by extensive dwarf Rhizophora mangle L. shrub forests with a seasonally variable water source (Everglades – NE Florida Bay) and residence times ranging from short to long. We conducted a leaf leaching experiment to understand the influence that water source and its corresponding water quality have on (1) the early decay of R. mangle leaves and (2) the early exchange of total organic carbon (TOC) and total phosphorus (TP) between leaves and the water column. Newly senesced leaves collected from lower Taylor River (FL) were incubated in bottles containing water from one of three sources (Everglades, ambient mangrove, and Florida Bay) that spanned a range of salinity from 0 to 32‰, [TOC] from 710 to 1400 μM, and [TP] from 0.17 to 0.33 μM. We poisoned half the bottles in order to quantify abiotic processes (i.e., leaching) and assumed that non-poisoned bottles represented both biotic (i.e., microbial) and abiotic processes. We sacrificed bottles after 1,2, 5, 10, and 21 days of incubation and quantified changes in leaf mass and changes in water column [TOC] and [TP]. We saw 10–20% loss of leaf mass after 24 h—independent of water treatment—that leveled off by Day 21. After 3 weeks, non-poisoned leaves lost more mass than poisoned leaves, and there was only an effect of salinity on mass loss in poisoned incubations—with greatest leaching-associated losses in Everglades freshwater. Normalized concentrations of TOC in the water column increased by more than two orders of magnitude after 21 days with no effect of salinity and no difference between poisoned and non-poisoned treatments. However, normalized [TP] was lower in non-poisoned incubations as a result of immobilization by epiphytic microbes. This immobilization was greatest in Everglades freshwater and reflects the high P demand in this ecosystem. Immobilization of leached P in mangrove water and Florida Bay water was delayed by several days and may indicate an initial microbial limitation by labile C during the dry season.

Comparative study of periphyton community structure in long and short-hydroperiod Everglades marshes

The Florida Everglades is a mosaic of short and long-hydroperiod marshes that differ in the depth, duration, and timing of inundation. Algae are important primary producers in widespread Everglades’ periphyton mats, but relationships of algal production and community structure to hydrologic variability are poorly understood. We quantified differences in algal biomass and community structure between periphyton mats in 5 short and 6 long-hydroperiod marshes in Everglades National Park (ENP) in October 2000. We related differences to water depth and total phosphorus (TP) concentration in the water, periphyton and soils. Long and short-hydroperiod marshes differed in water depth (73 cm vs. 13 cm), periphyton TP concentrations (172μg g−1 vs. 107 μg g−1, respectively) and soil TP (284 μg g−1 vs. 145 μg g−1). Periphyton was abundant in both marshes, with short-hydroperiod sites having greater biomass than long-hydroperiod sites (2936 vs. 575 grams ash-free dry mass m−2). A total of 156 algal taxa were identified and separated into diatom (68 species from 21 genera) and “soft algae” (88 non-diatom species from 47 genera) categories for further analyses. Although diatom total abundance was greater in long-hydroperiod mats, diatom species richness was significantly greater in short- hydroperiod periphyton mats (62 vs. 47 diatom taxa). Soft algal species richness was greater in long-hydroperiod sites (81 vs. 67 soft algae taxa). Relative abundances of individual taxa were significantly different among the two site types, with soft algal distributions being driven by water depth, and diatom distributions by water depth and TP concentration in the water and periphyton. Periphyton communities differ between short and long-hydroperiod marshes, but because they share many taxa, alterations in hydroperiod could rapidly

Ecological indicators for assessing and communicating seagrass status and trends in Florida Bay

A suite of seagrass indicator metrics is developed to evaluate four essential measures of seagrass community status for Florida Bay. The measures are based on several years of monitoring data using the Braun-Blanquet Cover Abundance (BBCA) scale to derive information about seagrass spatial extent, abundance, species diversity and presence of target species. As ecosystem restoration proceeds in south Florida, additional freshwater will be discharged to Florida Bay as a means to restore the bay's hydrology and salinity regime. Primary hypotheses about restoring ecological function of the keystone seagrass community are based on the premise that hydrologic restoration will increase environmental variability and reduce hypersalinity. This will create greater niche space and permit multiple seagrass species to co-exist while maintaining good environmental conditions for Thalassia testudinum, the dominant climax seagrass species. Greater species diversity is considered beneficial to habitat for desired higher trophic level species such as forage fish and shrimp. It is also important to maintenance of a viable seagrass community that will avoid die-off events observed in the past. Indicator metrics are assigned values at the basin spatial scale and are aggregated to five larger zones. Three index metrics are derived by combining the four indicators through logic gates at the zone spatial scale and aggregated to derive a single bay-wide system status score standardized on the System-wide Indicator protocol. The indicators will provide a way to assess progress toward restoration goals or reveal areas of concern. Reporting for each indicator, index and overall system status score is presented in a red–yellow–green format that summarizes information in a readily accessible form for mangers, policy-makers and stakeholders in planning and implementing an adaptive management strategy.

Using soil profiles of seeds and molecular markers as proxies for sawgrass and wet prairie slough vegetation in Shark Slough, Everglades National Park

We measured the abundance of Cladium jamaicense (Crantz) seeds and three biomarkers in freshwater marsh soils in Shark River Slough (SRS), Everglades National Park (ENP) to determine the degree to which these paleoecological proxies reflect spatial and temporal variation in vegetation. We found that C. jamaicense seeds and the biomarkers Paq, total lignin phenols (TLP) and kaurenes analyzed from surface soils were all significantly correlated with extant aboveground C. jamaicense biomass quantified along a vegetation gradient from a C. jamaicense to a wet prairie/slough (WPS) community. Our results also suggest that these individual proxies may reflect vegetation over different spatial scales: Paq and kaurenes correlated most strongly (R 2 = 0.88 and 0.99, respectively) with vegetation within 1 m of a soil sample, while seeds and TLP reflected vegetation 0–20 m upstream of soil samples. These differences in the spatial scale depicted by the different proxies may be complementary in understanding aspects of historic landscape patterning. Soil profiles of short (25 cm) cores showed that downcore variation in C. jamaicense seeds was highly correlated with two of the three biomarkers (Paq, R 2 = 0.84, p<0.005; TLP, R 2 = 0.97, p<0.0001), and all four of the proxies indicated a recent increase in C. jamaicense biomass at the site. Using a preliminary depth-to-age relationship based on matching charcoal peaks with available ENP fire records (1980-present) specific to our coring site, we found that peak-depths in C. jamaicense seed concentration appeared to correspond to recent minimum water levels (e.g., 1989 and 2001), and low seed abundance corresponded to high water levels (e.g., 1995), consistent with the known autecology of C. jamaicense. In summary, the combination of C. jamaicense seeds and biomarkers may be useful for paleoecological reconstruction of vegetation change and ultimately in guaging the success of ongoing efforts to restore historic hydrologic conditions in the South Florida Everglades.

Ecosystem structure, nutrient dynamics, and hydrologic relationships in tree islands of the southern Everglades, Florida, USA

Tree islands are an important structural component of many graminoid-dominated wetlands because they increase ecological complexity in the landscape. Tree island area has been drastically reduced with hydrologic modifications within the Everglades ecosystem, yet still little is known about the ecosystem ecology of Everglades tree islands. As part of an ongoing study to investigate the effects of hydrologic restoration on short hydroperiod marshes of the southern Everglades, we report an ecosystem characterization of seasonally flooded tree islands relative to locations described by variation in freshwater flow (i.e. locally enhanced freshwater flow by levee removal). We quantified: (1) forest structure, litterfall production, nutrient utilization, soil dynamics, and hydrologic properties of six tree islands and (2) soil and surface water physico-chemical properties of adjacent marshes. Tree islands efficiently utilized both phosphorus and nitrogen, but indices of nutrient-use efficiency indicated stronger P than N limitation. Tree islands were distinct in structure and biogeochemical properties from the surrounding marsh, maintaining higher organically bound P and N, but lower inorganic N. Annual variation resulting in increased hydroperiod and lower wet season water levels not only increased nitrogen use by tree species and decreased N:P values of the dominant plant species (Chrysobalanus icaco), but also increased soil pH and decreased soil temperature. When compared with other forested wetlands, these Everglades tree islands were among the most nutrient efficient, likely a function of nutrient immobilization in soils and the calcium carbonate bedrock. Tree islands of our study area are defined by: (1) unique biogeochemical properties when compared with adjacent short hydroperiod marshes and other forested wetlands and (2) an intricate relationship with marsh hydrology. As such, they may play an important and disproportionate role in nutrient and carbon cycling in Everglades wetlands. With the loss of tree islands that has occurred with the degradation of the Everglades system, these landscape processes may have been altered. With this baseline dataset, we have established a long-term ecosystem-scale experiment to follow the ecosystem trajectory of seasonally flooded tree islands in response to hydrologic restoration of the southern Everglades.

Relationships Between Hydrology and Soils Describe Vegetation Patterns in Seasonally Flooded Tree Islands of the Southern Everglades, Florida

Tree island ecosystems are important and distinct features of Florida Everglades wetlands. We described the inter-relationships among abiotic factors describing seasonally flooded tree islands and characterized plant–soil relationships in tree islands occurring in a relatively unimpacted area of the Everglades. We used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to reduce our multi-factor dataset, quantified forest structure and vegetation nutrient dynamics, and related these vegetation parameters to PCA summary variables using linear regression analyses. We found that, of the 21 abiotic parameters used to characterize the ecosystem structure of seasonally flooded tree islands, 13 parameters were significantly correlated with four principal components, and they described 78% of the variance among the study islands. Most variation was described by factors related to soil oxidation and hydrology, exemplifying the sensitivity of tree island structure to hydrologic conditions. PCA summary variables describing tree island structure were related to variability in Chrysobalanus icaco (L.) canopy cover, Ilex cassine (L.) and Salix caroliniana (Michx.) canopy cover, Myrica cerifera (L.) plot frequency, litter turnover, % phosphorus resorption of co-dominant species, and nitrogen nutrient-use efficiency. This study supported findings that vegetation characteristics can be sensitive indicators of variability in tree island ecosystem structure. This study produced valuable, information which was used to recommend ecological targets (i.e. restoration performance measures) for seasonally flooded tree islands in more impacted regions of the Everglades landscape.

Indirect and direct controls of macroinvertebrates and small fish by abiotic factors and trophic interactions in the Florida Everglades

1. The roles of nutrients, disturbance and predation in regulating consumer densities have long been of interest, but their indirect effects have rarely been quantified in wetland ecosystems. The Florida Everglades contains gradients of hydrological disturbance (marsh drying) and nutrient enrichment (phosphorus), often correlated with densities of macroinvertebrate infauna (macroinvertebrates inhabiting periphyton), small fish and larger invertebrates, such as snails, grass shrimp, insects and crayfish. However, most causal relationships have yet to be quantified. 2.  We sampled periphyton (content and community structure) and consumer (small omnivores, carnivores and herbivores, and infaunal macroinvertebrates inhabiting periphyton) density at 28 sites spanning a range of hydrological and nutrient conditions and compared our data to seven a priori structural equation models. 3.  The best model included bottom-up and top-down effects among trophic groups and supported top-down control of infauna by omnivores and predators that cascaded to periphyton biomass. The next best model included bottom-up paths only and allowed direct effects of periphyton on omnivore density. Both models suggested a positive relationship between small herbivores and small omnivores, indicating that predation was unable to limit herbivore numbers. Total effects of time following flooding were negative for all three consumer groups even when both preferred models suggested positive direct effects for some groups. Total effects of nutrient levels (phosphorus) were positive for consumers and generally larger than those of hydrological disturbance and were mediated by changes in periphyton content. 4.  Our findings provide quantitative support for indirect effects of nutrient enrichment on consumers, and the importance of both algal community structure and periphyton biomass to Everglades food webs. Evidence for top-down control of infauna by omnivores was noted, though without substantially greater support than a competing bottom-up-only model.

Biogeochemical Effects of Simulated Sea Level Rise on Carbon Loss in an Everglades Mangrove Peat Soil

Saltwater intrusion and inundation can affect soil microbial activity, which regulates the carbon (C) balance in mangroves and helps to determine if these coastal forests can keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). This study evaluated the effects of increased salinity (+15 ppt), increased inundation (−8 cm), and their combination, on soil organic C loss from a mangrove peat soil (Everglades, Florida, USA) under simulated tides. Soil respiration (CO2 flux), methane (CH4) flux, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production, and porewater nutrient concentrations were quantified. Soil respiration was the major pathway of soil organic C loss (94–98%) and was approximately 90% higher in the control water level than the inundated treatment under elevated salinity. Respiration rate increased with water temperature, but depended upon salinity and tidal range. CH4 flux was minimal, while porewater DOC increased with a concomitant, significant decline in soil bulk density under increased inundation. Porewater ammonium increased (73%) with inundation and soluble reactive phosphorus increased (32%) with salinity. Overall, the decline in soil organic C mineralization from combined saltwater intrusion and prolonged inundation was not significant, but results suggest SLR could increase this soil’s susceptibility to peat collapse and accelerate nutrient and DOC export to adjacent Florida Bay.

The Relationship Between Water Level, Prey Availability and Reproductive Success in Roseate Spoonbills Foraging in a Seasonally-Flooded Wetland While Nesting in Florida Bay

The coastal wetlands of northeastern Florida Bay are seasonally-inundated dwarf mangrove habitat and serve as a primary foraging ground for wading birds nesting in Florida Bay. A common paradigm in pulse-inundated wetlands is that prey base fishes increase in abundance while the wetland is flooded and then become highly concentrated in deeper water refuges as water levels recede, becoming highly available to wading birds whose nesting success depends on these concentrations. Although widely accepted, the relationship between water levels, prey availability and nesting success has rarely been quantified. I examine this paradigm using Roseate Spoonbills that nest on the islands in northeastern Florida Bay and forage on the mainland. Spoonbill nesting success and water levels on their foraging grounds have been monitored since 1987 and prey base fishes have been systematically sampled at as many as 10 known spoonbill foraging sites since 1990. Results demonstrated that the relationship between water level and prey abundance was not linear but rather there is likely a threshold, or series of thresholds, in water level that result in concentrated prey. Furthermore, the study indicates that spoonbills require water level-induced prey concentrations in order to have enough food available to successfully raise young.

Size-based variation in intertissue comparisons of stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic signatures of bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) and tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier)

Stable isotopes are important tools for understanding the trophic roles of elasmobranchs. However, whether different tissues provide consistent stable isotope values within an individual are largely unknown. To address this, the relationships among carbon and nitrogen isotope values were quantified for blood, muscle, and fin from juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) and blood and fin from large tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) collected in two different ecosystems. We also investigated the relationship between shark size and the magnitude of differences in isotopic values between tissues. Isotope values were significantly positively correlated for all paired tissue comparisons, but R2 values were much higher for δ13C than for δ15N. Paired differences between isotopic values of tissues were relatively small but varied significantly with shark total length, suggesting that shark size can be an important factor influencing the magnitude of differences in isotope values of different tissues. For studies of juvenile sharks, care should be taken in using slow turnover tissues like muscle and fin, because they may retain a maternal signature for an extended time. Although correlations were relatively strong, results suggest that correction factors should be generated for the desired study species and may only allow coarse-scale comparisons between studies using different tissue types.

Slow Isotope Turnover Rates and Low Discrimination Values in the American Alligator: Implications for Interpretation of Ectotherm Stable Isotope Data

Stable isotope analysis has become a standard ecological tool for elucidating feeding relationships of organisms and determining food web structure and connectivity. There remain important questions concerning rates at which stable isotope values are incorporated into tissues (turnover rates) and the change in isotope value between a tissue and a food source (discrimination values). These gaps in our understanding necessitate experimental studies to adequately interpret field data. Tissue turnover rates and discrimination values vary among species and have been investigated in a broad array of taxa. However, little attention has been paid to ectothermic top predators in this regard. We quantified the turnover rates and discrimination values for three tissues (scutes, red blood cells, and plasma) in American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis). Plasma turned over faster than scutes or red blood cells, but turnover rates of all three tissues were very slow in comparison to those in endothermic species. Alligator δ15N discrimination values were surprisingly low in comparison to those of other top predators and varied between experimental and control alligators. The variability of δ15N discrimination values highlights the difficulties in using δ15N to assign absolute and possibly even relative trophic levels in field studies. Our results suggest that interpreting stable isotope data based on parameter estimates from other species can be problematic and that large ectothermic tetrapod tissues may be characterized by unique stable isotope dynamics relative to species occupying lower trophic levels and endothermic tetrapods.