Improving the predictability of time series by chaotic parameter estimation

Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^

The Fullness of time

THE FULLNESS OF TIME is a novel about the quest for identity that transcends the limitations of moral duty, social status, and cultural conventions. Set in Tarpon Springs, Florida, in 1969, it is the story of Victor Lucas, a young Greek immigrant forced to go to war in Vietnam in another man's place in order to save the woman he loves. He must survive the war to return and reclaim his love and his rightful place in society. Based on the archetypal hero's quest as articulated by Joseph Campbell, the narrative is told from the limited third-person perspective of the main character. Though the journey is particular to Tarpon Springs in the 1960s, it echoes the human struggle and triumph in the wanderings of Ulysses. The novel's influences include Thomas Hardy's The Mayor of Casterbridge, but is also thematically related to contemporary works exploring cultural turbulence and upheaval.

The Validity of Broad and Narrow Personality Traits For Predicting Job Performance: The Differential Effects of Time

Research into the dynamicity of job performance criteria has found evidence suggesting the presence of rank-order changes to job performance scores across time as well as intraindividual trajectories in job performance scores across time. These findings have influenced a large body of research into (a) the dynamicity of validities of individual differences predictors of job performance and (b) the relationship between individual differences predictors of job performance and intraindividual trajectories of job performance. In the present dissertation, I addressed these issues within the context of the Five Factor Model of personality. The Five Factor Model is arranged hierarchically, with five broad higher-order factors subsuming a number of more narrowly tailored personality facets. Research has debated the relative merits of broad versus narrow traits for predicting job performance, but the entire body of research has addressed the issue from a static perspective -- by examining the relative magnitude of validities of global factors versus their facets. While research along these lines has been enlightening, theoretical perspectives suggest that the validities of global factors versus their facets may differ in their stability across time. Thus, research is needed to not only compare the relative magnitude of validities of global factors versus their facets at a single point in time, but also to compare the relative stability of validities of global factors versus their facets across time. Also necessary to advance cumulative knowledge concerning intraindividual performance trajectories is research into broad vs. narrow traits for predicting such trajectories. In the present dissertation, I addressed these issues using a four-year longitudinal design. The results indicated that the validities of global conscientiousness were stable across time, while the validities of conscientiousness facets were more likely to fluctuate. However, the validities of emotional stability and extraversion facets were no more likely to fluctuate across time than those of the factors. Finally, while some personality factors and facets predicted performance intercepts (i.e., performance at the first measurement occasion), my results failed to indicate a significant effect of any personality variable on performance growth. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

The impact of increased writing time allotment on the developmental writing skills of intermediate elementary school students

The purpose of this study is to determine which of several treatment groups and/or grades have shown growth when increased writing time allotment has occurred. Third, fourth and fifth grade students identified as Gifted, Learning Disabled, and Limited English Proficient enrolled in ESOL classes were the 69 subjects.^ All students were allotted at least one hour of writing time, four days a week for the school year of 1994-1995. Writing activities conducted during the school year involved the full writing process, including prewriting, drafting, revising, and editing. Pretests and posttests were administered across the grade levels at a designated period of time using the same administration procedures as the Florida Writing Assessment Program. Three teachers rated each sample on a scale of zero to three.^ The results of the oneway ANOVA indicated that the three raters did not score the pretests and posttests significantly different from each other. A single group pretest-posttest experimental design was used on the three groups. The results of the Gifted group revealed that the Gifted C subgroup (Gifted Behavioral) appeared to have averaged a higher gain score than both the Gifted A and Gifted B subgroups. For the four subgroups of the LD group, no distinct pattern was evident. The Group C subgroup (ADD) appeared to have scored lower than the other three subgroup although their mean IQ score was higher than the others LD subgroups. Comparisons were difficult to make among the four ESOL subgroups due to low subjects and/or scores. Qualitative analyses were also conducted using semi-structured interviews with the Gifted, Learning Disabled, and ESOL teachers. All believed the additional instructional time spent on writing made the difference in the increased writing scores.^ The study indicated that time alone is not a significant factor in developing accomplished writers. Direct instruction perhaps in a specific strategy or skill may lead to significant results. ^

Stabilization of troponin I for applications in clinical chemistry and forensic medicine. Cardiac troponin I: A time of death marker

Cardiac troponin I (cTnI) is one of the most useful serum marker test for the determination of myocardial infarction (MI). The first commercial assay of cTnI was released for medical use in the United States and Europe in 1995. It is useful in determining if the source of chest pains, whose etiology may be unknown, is cardiac related. Cardiac TnI is released into the bloodstream following myocardial necrosis (cardiac cell death) as a result of an infarct (heart attack). In this research project the utility of cardiac troponin I as a potential marker for the determination of time of death is investigated. The approach of this research is not to investigate cTnI degradation in serum/plasma, but to investigate the proteolytic breakdown of this protein in heart tissue postmortem. If our hypothesis is correct, cTnI might show a distinctive temporal degradation profile after death. This temporal profile may have potential as a time of death marker in forensic medicine. The field of time of death markers has lagged behind the great advances in technology since the late 1850's. Today medical examiners are using rudimentary time of death markers that offer limited reliability in the medico-legal arena. Cardiac TnI must be stabilized in order to avoid further degradation by proteases in the extraction process. Chemically derivatized magnetic microparticles were covalently linked to anti-cTnI monoclonal antibodies. A charge capture approach was also used to eliminate the antibody from the magnetic microparticles given the negative charge on the microparticles. The magnetic microparticles were used to extract cTnI from heart tissue homogenate for further bio-analysis. Cardiac TnI was eluted from the beads with a buffer and analyzed. This technique exploits banding pattern on sodium dodecyl sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) followed by a western blot transfer to polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) paper for probing with anti-cTnI monoclonal antibodies. Bovine hearts were used as a model to establish the relationship of time of death and concentration/band-pattern given its homology to human cardiac TnI. The final concept feasibility was tested with human heart samples from cadavers with known time of death. ^

Elementary music and classroom teachers' time -use: A comparison by grade level, time of day, and day of the week

This study investigated time-use of elementary music teachers and elementary classroom teachers to determine: (1) whether there was a relationship between grade level, time of day, and day of the week and teachers' time-use in teaching, monitoring, and non-curricular, and (2) whether ethnicity, training, and years of experience affect teacher time-use. Sixty-nine music teachers and 55 classroom teachers participated. ^ A MANOVA was used to examine the hypothesized relationship. ANOVA results were significant for time spent teaching, monitoring, and non-curricular. An independent t test revealed a significance difference (t (302) = 5.20, p < .001) between the two groups of teachers. A significant difference was found for teaching, t (302) = 5.20, p < .001: music teachers spent more time actively teaching than did classroom teachers. There was a significant difference for monitoring (t (302) = 13.62, p < .001): classroom teachers allocated more time to monitoring than did music teachers. A significant difference was also found for non-curricular (t (302) = 7.03, p < .001): music teachers spent more time in this category of activities than did classroom teachers. ^ Analyses of the activities subsumed under the major categories indicated significant differences between elementary music teachers and elementary classroom teachers, overall, in subject matter (p < .001), discussion (p < .05), school-wide activities (p < .001), seatwork (p < .001), giving directions (p < .001), changing activities (p < .001), lunch (p < .05), planning (p < .001) and interruption (p < .001). Analyses of the relationship and ethnicity, training, degree, experience indicated significant difference for main effect, ethnicity (F(2, 116) = 4.22, p < .017). Time-use for black non-Hispanic teachers was higher than time-use for those who were Hispanic and white non-Hispanic. ^ Analyses of time-use by grade showed no increase for either group as grade level increased. A statistically significant Wilks Lambda ( F (1,294) = .917 p < .013) was found for the independent variable day of the week. ANOVA indicated that elementary classroom teachers monitored more on Thursdays and Fridays: music teachers allocated more time to non-curricular activities on Fridays. ^

Elementary music and classroom teachers' time-use: a comparison by grade level, time of day, and day of the week

This study investigated time-use of elementary music teachers and elementary classroom teachers to determine: (1) whether there was a relationship between grade level, time of day, and day of the week and teachers' time-use in teaching, monitoring, and non-curricular, and (2) whether ethnicity, training, and years of experience affect teacher time-use. Sixty-nine music teachers and 55 classroom teachers participated. A MANOVA was used to examine the hypothesized relationship. ANOVA results were significant for time spent teaching, monitoring, and non-curricular. An independent t test revealed a significance difference (t (302) = 5.20, p Analyses of the activities subsumed under the major categories indicated significant differences between elementary music teachers and elementary classroom teachers, overall, in subject matter ( p teachers was higher than time-use for those who were Hispanic and white non-Hispanic. Analyses of time-use by grade showed no increase for either group as grade level increased. A statistically significant Wilks Lambda ( F (1,294) = .917 p < .013 ) was found for the independent variable day of the week. ANOVA indicated that elementary classroom teachers monitored more on Thursdays and Fridays: music teachers allocated more time to non-curricular activities on Fridays.