Three essays on trade and investment

From H. G. Johnson's work (Review of Economic Studies, 1953–54) on tariff retaliation, the questions of whether a country can win a “tariff war” and how or even the broader question of what will affect a country's strategic position in setting bilateral tariff have been tackled in various situations. Although it is widely accepted that a country will have strategic advantages in winning the tariff war if its relative monopoly power is sufficiently large, it is unclear what are the forces behind such power formation. The goal of this research is to provide a unified framework and discuss various forces such as relative country size, absolute advantages and relative advantages simultaneously. In a two-country continuum-of-commodity neoclassical trade model, it is shown that sufficiently large relative country size is a sufficient condition for a country to choose a non-cooperative tariff Nash equilibrium over free trade. It is also shown that technology disparities such as absolute advantage, rate of technology disparity and the distribution of the technology disparity all contribute to a country's strategic position and interact with country size. ^ Leverage effect is usually used to explain the phenomenon of asymmetric volatility in equity returns. However, leverage itself can only account for parts of the asymmetry. In this research, it is shown that stock return volatility is related to firms’ financial status. Financially constrained firms tend to be more sensitive to the return changes. Financial constraint factor explains why some firms tend to be more volatile than others. I found that the financial constraint factor explains the stock return volatility independent of other factors such as firm size, industry affiliation and leverage. Firms’ industry affiliations are shown to be very weak in differentiating volatility. Firm size is proven to be a good factor in distinguishing the different levels of volatility and volatility-return sensitivity. Leverage hypothesis is also partly corroborated and the situation where leverage effect is not applicable is discussed. Finally, I examined the macroeconomic policy's effects on overall market volatility. ^

Efficient storage and domain-specific information discovery on semistructured documents

The increasing amount of available semistructured data demands efficient mechanisms to store, process, and search an enormous corpus of data to encourage its global adoption. Current techniques to store semistructured documents either map them to relational databases, or use a combination of flat files and indexes. These two approaches result in a mismatch between the tree-structure of semistructured data and the access characteristics of the underlying storage devices. Furthermore, the inefficiency of XML parsing methods has slowed down the large-scale adoption of XML into actual system implementations. The recent development of lazy parsing techniques is a major step towards improving this situation, but lazy parsers still have significant drawbacks that undermine the massive adoption of XML. ^ Once the processing (storage and parsing) issues for semistructured data have been addressed, another key challenge to leverage semistructured data is to perform effective information discovery on such data. Previous works have addressed this problem in a generic (i.e. domain independent) way, but this process can be improved if knowledge about the specific domain is taken into consideration. ^ This dissertation had two general goals: The first goal was to devise novel techniques to efficiently store and process semistructured documents. This goal had two specific aims: We proposed a method for storing semistructured documents that maps the physical characteristics of the documents to the geometrical layout of hard drives. We developed a Double-Lazy Parser for semistructured documents which introduces lazy behavior in both the pre-parsing and progressive parsing phases of the standard Document Object Model’s parsing mechanism. ^ The second goal was to construct a user-friendly and efficient engine for performing Information Discovery over domain-specific semistructured documents. This goal also had two aims: We presented a framework that exploits the domain-specific knowledge to improve the quality of the information discovery process by incorporating domain ontologies. We also proposed meaningful evaluation metrics to compare the results of search systems over semistructured documents. ^

Employee engagement: An examination of antecedent and outcome variables

This nonexperimental, correlational study (N = 283) examined the relation among job fit, affective commitment, psychological climate, discretionary effort, intention to turnover, and employee engagement. An internet-based self-report survey battery of six scales were administered to a heterogeneous sampling of organizations from the fields of service, technology, healthcare, retail, banking, nonprofit, and hospitality. Hypotheses were tested through correlational and hierarchical regression analytic procedures. Job fit, affective commitment, and psychological climate were all significantly related to employee engagement and employee engagement was significantly related to both discretionary effort and intention to turnover. For the discretionary effort model, the hierarchical regression analysis results suggested that the employees who reported experiencing a positive psychological climate were more likely to report higher levels of discretionary effort. As for the intention to turnover model, the hierarchical regression analysis results indicated that affective commitment and employee engagement predicted lower levels of an employee’s intention to turnover. The regression beta weights ranged from to .43 to .78, supporting the theoretical, empirical, and practical relevance of understanding the impact of employee engagement on organizational outcomes. Implications for HRD theory, research, and practice are highlighted as possible strategic leverage points for creating conditions that facilitate the development of employee engagement as a means for improving organizational performance.

An investigation of the strategies used by organizations participating in the welfare-to-work network program and correlation of the strategies with the retention data to determine best practices for job retention among former welfare recipients

This ex post facto study (N = 209) examined the relationships between employer job strategies and job retention among organizations participating in Florida welfare-to-work network programs and associated the strategies with job retention data to determine best practices. ^ An internet-based self-report survey battery was administered to a heterogeneous sampling of organizations participating in the Florida welfare-to-work network program. Hypotheses were tested through correlational and hierarchical regression analytic procedures. The partial correlation results linked each of the job retention strategies to job retention. Wages, benefits, training and supervision, communication, job growth, work/life balance, fairness and respect were all significantly related to job retention. Hierarchical regression results indicated that the training and supervision variable was the best predictor of job retention in the regression equation. ^ The size of the organization was also a significant predictor of job retention. Large organizations reported higher job retention rates than small organizations. There was no statistical difference between the types of organizations (profit-making and non-profit) and job retention. The standardized betas ranged from to .26 to .41 in the regression equation. Twenty percent of the variance in job retention was explained by the combination of demographic and job retention strategy predictors, supporting the theoretical, empirical, and practical relevance of understanding the association between employer job strategies and job retention outcomes. Implications for adult education and human resource development theory, research, and practice are highlighted as possible strategic leverage points for creating conditions that facilitate the development of job strategies as a means for improving former welfare workers’ job retention.^

European integration and democratic consolidation: Spain, Poland and Turkey in comparative perspective

The study explored when, under what conditions, and to what extent did European integration, particularly the European Union’s requirement for democratic conditionality, contribute to democratic consolidation in Spain, Poland, and Turkey? On the basis of a four-part definition, the dissertation examined the democratizing impact of European integration process on each of the following four components of consolidation: (i) holding of fair, free and competitive elections, (ii) protection of fundamental rights, including human and minority rights, (iii) high prospects of regime survival and civilian control of the military, and (iv) legitimacy, elite consensus, and stateness. To assess the relative significance of EU’s democratizing leverage, the thesis also examined domestic and non-EU international dynamics of democratic consolidation in the three countries. By employing two qualitative methods (case study and process-tracing), the study focused on three specific time frames: 1977–1986 for Spain, 1994–2004 for Poland, and 1999–present for Turkey. In addition to official documents, newspapers, and secondary sources, face-to-face interviews made with politicians, academics, experts, bureaucrats, and journalists in the three countries were utilized. The thesis generated several conclusions. First of all, the EU’s democratizing impact is not uniform across different components of democratic consolidation. Moreover, the EU’s democratizing leverage in Spain, Poland, and Turkey involved variations over time for three major reasons: (i) the changing nature of EU’s democratic conditionality over time (ii) varying levels of the EU’s credible commitment to the candidate country’s prospect for membership, and (iii) domestic dynamics in the candidate countries. Furthermore, the European integration process favors democratic consolidation but its magnitude is shaped by the candidate country’s prospect for EU membership and domestic factors in the candidate country. Finally, the study involves a major policy implication for the European Union: unless the EU provides a clear prospect for membership, its democratizing leverage will be limited in the candidate countries.

Three empirical essays on startups' survival using the Kauffman Firm Survey

This dissertation studies newly founded U.S. firms' survival using three different releases of the Kauffman Firm Survey. I study firms' survival from a different perspective in each chapter. ^ The first essay studies firms' survival through an analysis of their initial state at startup and the current state of the firms as they gain maturity. The probability of survival is determined using three probit models, using both firm-specific variables and an industry scale variable to control for the environment of operation. The firm's specific variables include size, experience and leverage as a debt-to-value ratio. The results indicate that size and relevant experience are both positive predictors for the initial and current states. Debt appears to be a predictor of exit if not justified wisely by acquiring assets. As suggested previously in the literature, entering a smaller-scale industry is a positive predictor of survival from birth. Finally, a smaller-scale industry diminishes the negative effects of debt. ^ The second essay makes use of a hazard model to confirm that new service-providing (SP) firms are more likely to survive than new product providers (PPs). I investigate the possible explanations for the higher survival rate of SPs using a Cox proportional hazard model. I examine six hypotheses (variations in capital per worker, expenses per worker, owners' experience, industry wages, assets and size), none of which appear to explain why SPs are more likely than PPs to survive. Two other possibilities are discussed: tax evasion and human/social relations, but these could not be tested due to lack of data. ^ The third essay investigates women-owned firms' higher failure rates using a Cox proportional hazard on two models. I make use of a never-before used variable that proxies for owners' confidence. This variable represents the owners' self-evaluated competitive advantage. ^ The first empirical model allows me to compare women's and men's hazard rates for each variable. In the second model I successively add the variables that could potentially explain why women have a higher failure rate. Unfortunately, I am not able to fully explain the gender effect on the firms' survival. Nonetheless, the second empirical approach allows me to confirm that social and psychological differences among genders are important in explaining the higher likelihood to fail in women-owned firms.^

Improving Storage with Stackable Extensions

Storage is a central part of computing. Driven by exponentially increasing content generation rate and a widening performance gap between memory and secondary storage, researchers are in the perennial quest to push for further innovation. This has resulted in novel ways to "squeeze" more capacity and performance out of current and emerging storage technology. Adding intelligence and leveraging new types of storage devices has opened the door to a whole new class of optimizations to save cost, improve performance, and reduce energy consumption. In this dissertation, we first develop, analyze, and evaluate three storage extensions. Our first extension tracks application access patterns and writes data in the way individual applications most commonly access it to benefit from the sequential throughput of disks. Our second extension uses a lower power flash device as a cache to save energy and turn off the disk during idle periods. Our third extension is designed to leverage the characteristics of both disks and solid state devices by placing data in the most appropriate device to improve performance and save power. In developing these systems, we learned that extending the storage stack is a complex process. Implementing new ideas incurs a prolonged and cumbersome development process and requires developers to have advanced knowledge of the entire system to ensure that extensions accomplish their goal without compromising data recoverability. Futhermore, storage administrators are often reluctant to deploy specific storage extensions without understanding how they interact with other extensions and if the extension ultimately achieves the intended goal. We address these challenges by using a combination of approaches. First, we simplify the storage extension development process with system-level infrastructure that implements core functionality commonly needed for storage extension development. Second, we develop a formal theory to assist administrators deploy storage extensions while guaranteeing that the given high level goals are satisfied. There are, however, some cases for which our theory is inconclusive. For such scenarios we present an experimental methodology that allows administrators to pick an extension that performs best for a given workload. Our evaluation demostrates the benefits of both the infrastructure and the formal theory.

Three essays on a longitudinal analysis of business start-ups using the Kauffman Firm Survey

This dissertation focused on the longitudinal analysis of business start-ups using three waves of data from the Kauffman Firm Survey. ^ The first essay used the data from years 2004-2008, and examined the simultaneous relationship between a firm's capital structure, human resource policies, and its impact on the level of innovation. The firm leverage was calculated as, debt divided by total financial resources. Index of employee well-being was determined by a set of nine dichotomous questions asked in the survey. A negative binomial fixed effects model was used to analyze the effect of employee well-being and leverage on the count data of patents and copyrights, which were used as a proxy for innovation. The paper demonstrated that employee well-being positively affects the firm's innovation, while a higher leverage ratio had a negative impact on the innovation. No significant relation was found between leverage and employee well-being.^ The second essay used the data from years 2004-2009, and inquired whether a higher entrepreneurial speed of learning is desirable, and whether there is a linkage between the speed of learning and growth rate of the firm. The change in the speed of learning was measured using a pooled OLS estimator in repeated cross-sections. There was evidence of a declining speed of learning over time, and it was concluded that a higher speed of learning is not necessarily a good thing, because speed of learning is contingent on the entrepreneur's initial knowledge, and the precision of the signals he receives from the market. Also, there was no reason to expect speed of learning to be related to the growth of the firm in one direction over another.^ The third essay used the data from years 2004-2010, and determined the timing of diversification activities by the business start-ups. It captured when a start-up diversified for the first time, and explored the association between an early diversification strategy adopted by a firm, and its survival rate. A semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine the survival pattern. The results demonstrated that firms diversifying at an early stage in their lives show a higher survival rate; however, this effect fades over time.^

Measuring Brand Equity of Restaurant Chains

Little research has been done to measure brand equity of hospitality companies. It is important for food service organizations to measure accurately their brand equity in order to manage and leverage it properly. This study attempts to measure the brand equity of casual dining restaurant chains in monetary terms using conjoint analysis.

XML storage and retrieval using the semantic binary object -oriented database system (SEM-ODB)

Over the past five years, XML has been embraced by both the research and industrial community due to its promising prospects as a new data representation and exchange format on the Internet. The widespread popularity of XML creates an increasing need to store XML data in persistent storage systems and to enable sophisticated XML queries over the data. The currently available approaches to addressing the XML storage and retrieval issue have the limitations of either being not mature enough (e.g. native approaches) or causing inflexibility, a lot of fragmentation and excessive join operations (e.g. non-native approaches such as the relational database approach). ^ In this dissertation, I studied the issue of storing and retrieving XML data using the Semantic Binary Object-Oriented Database System (Sem-ODB) to leverage the advanced Sem-ODB technology with the emerging XML data model. First, a meta-schema based approach was implemented to address the data model mismatch issue that is inherent in the non-native approaches. The meta-schema based approach captures the meta-data of both Document Type Definitions (DTDs) and Sem-ODB Semantic Schemas, thus enables a dynamic and flexible mapping scheme. Second, a formal framework was presented to ensure precise and concise mappings. In this framework, both schemas and the conversions between them are formally defined and described. Third, after major features of an XML query language, XQuery, were analyzed, a high-level XQuery to Semantic SQL (Sem-SQL) query translation scheme was described. This translation scheme takes advantage of the navigation-oriented query paradigm of the Sem-SQL, thus avoids the excessive join problem of relational approaches. Finally, the modeling capability of the Semantic Binary Object-Oriented Data Model (Sem-ODM) was explored from the perspective of conceptually modeling an XML Schema using a Semantic Schema. ^ It was revealed that the advanced features of the Sem-ODB, such as multi-valued attributes, surrogates, the navigation-oriented query paradigm, among others, are indeed beneficial in coping with the XML storage and retrieval issue using a non-XML approach. Furthermore, extensions to the Sem-ODB to make it work more effectively with XML data were also proposed. ^

Development, validation and uncertainty analysis of quantitative structure and activity relationship models for Log P of disinfection by -products

Hydrophobicity as measured by Log P is an important molecular property related to toxicity and carcinogenicity. With increasing public health concerns for the effects of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs), there are considerable benefits in developing Quantitative Structure and Activity Relationship (QSAR) models capable of accurately predicting Log P. In this research, Log P values of 173 DBP compounds in 6 functional classes were used to develop QSAR models, by applying 3 molecular descriptors, namely, Energy of the Lowest Unoccupied Molecular Orbital (ELUMO), Number of Chlorine (NCl) and Number of Carbon (NC) by Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) analysis. The QSAR models developed were validated based on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) principles. The model Applicability Domain (AD) and mechanistic interpretation were explored. Considering the very complex nature of DBPs, the established QSAR models performed very well with respect to goodness-of-fit, robustness and predictability. The predicted values of Log P of DBPs by the QSAR models were found to be significant with a correlation coefficient R2 from 81% to 98%. The Leverage Approach by Williams Plot was applied to detect and remove outliers, consequently increasing R 2 by approximately 2% to 13% for different DBP classes. The developed QSAR models were statistically validated for their predictive power by the Leave-One-Out (LOO) and Leave-Many-Out (LMO) cross validation methods. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the variations and inherent uncertainties in the QSAR models of Log P and determine the most influential parameters in connection with Log P prediction. The developed QSAR models in this dissertation will have a broad applicability domain because the research data set covered six out of eight common DBP classes, including halogenated alkane, halogenated alkene, halogenated aromatic, halogenated aldehyde, halogenated ketone, and halogenated carboxylic acid, which have been brought to the attention of regulatory agencies in recent years. Furthermore, the QSAR models are suitable to be used for prediction of similar DBP compounds within the same applicability domain. The selection and integration of various methodologies developed in this research may also benefit future research in similar fields.

Mixed spatial and nonspatial problems in location based services

With hundreds of millions of users reporting locations and embracing mobile technologies, Location Based Services (LBSs) are raising new challenges. In this dissertation, we address three emerging problems in location services, where geolocation data plays a central role. First, to handle the unprecedented growth of generated geolocation data, existing location services rely on geospatial database systems. However, their inability to leverage combined geographical and textual information in analytical queries (e.g. spatial similarity joins) remains an open problem. To address this, we introduce SpsJoin, a framework for computing spatial set-similarity joins. SpsJoin handles combined similarity queries that involve textual and spatial constraints simultaneously. LBSs use this system to tackle different types of problems, such as deduplication, geolocation enhancement and record linkage. We define the spatial set-similarity join problem in a general case and propose an algorithm for its efficient computation. Our solution utilizes parallel computing with MapReduce to handle scalability issues in large geospatial databases. Second, applications that use geolocation data are seldom concerned with ensuring the privacy of participating users. To motivate participation and address privacy concerns, we propose iSafe, a privacy preserving algorithm for computing safety snapshots of co-located mobile devices as well as geosocial network users. iSafe combines geolocation data extracted from crime datasets and geosocial networks such as Yelp. In order to enhance iSafe's ability to compute safety recommendations, even when crime information is incomplete or sparse, we need to identify relationships between Yelp venues and crime indices at their locations. To achieve this, we use SpsJoin on two datasets (Yelp venues and geolocated businesses) to find venues that have not been reviewed and to further compute the crime indices of their locations. Our results show a statistically significant dependence between location crime indices and Yelp features. Third, review centered LBSs (e.g., Yelp) are increasingly becoming targets of malicious campaigns that aim to bias the public image of represented businesses. Although Yelp actively attempts to detect and filter fraudulent reviews, our experiments showed that Yelp is still vulnerable. Fraudulent LBS information also impacts the ability of iSafe to provide correct safety values. We take steps toward addressing this problem by proposing SpiDeR, an algorithm that takes advantage of the richness of information available in Yelp to detect abnormal review patterns. We propose a fake venue detection solution that applies SpsJoin on Yelp and U.S. housing datasets. We validate the proposed solutions using ground truth data extracted by our experiments and reviews filtered by Yelp.

Temporal Mining for Distributed Systems

Many systems and applications are continuously producing events. These events are used to record the status of the system and trace the behaviors of the systems. By examining these events, system administrators can check the potential problems of these systems. If the temporal dynamics of the systems are further investigated, the underlying patterns can be discovered. The uncovered knowledge can be leveraged to predict the future system behaviors or to mitigate the potential risks of the systems. Moreover, the system administrators can utilize the temporal patterns to set up event management rules to make the system more intelligent. With the popularity of data mining techniques in recent years, these events grad- ually become more and more useful. Despite the recent advances of the data mining techniques, the application to system event mining is still in a rudimentary stage. Most of works are still focusing on episodes mining or frequent pattern discovering. These methods are unable to provide a brief yet comprehensible summary to reveal the valuable information from the high level perspective. Moreover, these methods provide little actionable knowledge to help the system administrators to better man- age the systems. To better make use of the recorded events, more practical techniques are required. From the perspective of data mining, three correlated directions are considered to be helpful for system management: (1) Provide concise yet comprehensive summaries about the running status of the systems; (2) Make the systems more intelligence and autonomous; (3) Effectively detect the abnormal behaviors of the systems. Due to the richness of the event logs, all these directions can be solved in the data-driven manner. And in this way, the robustness of the systems can be enhanced and the goal of autonomous management can be approached. This dissertation mainly focuses on the foregoing directions that leverage tem- poral mining techniques to facilitate system management. More specifically, three concrete topics will be discussed, including event, resource demand prediction, and streaming anomaly detection. Besides the theoretic contributions, the experimental evaluation will also be presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficacy of the corresponding solutions.

Integrity-based kernel malware detection

Kernel-level malware is one of the most dangerous threats to the security of users on the Internet, so there is an urgent need for its detection. The most popular detection approach is misuse-based detection. However, it cannot catch up with today's advanced malware that increasingly apply polymorphism and obfuscation. In this thesis, we present our integrity-based detection for kernel-level malware, which does not rely on the specific features of malware. ^ We have developed an integrity analysis system that can derive and monitor integrity properties for commodity operating systems kernels. In our system, we focus on two classes of integrity properties: data invariants and integrity of Kernel Queue (KQ) requests. ^ We adopt static analysis for data invariant detection and overcome several technical challenges: field-sensitivity, array-sensitivity, and pointer analysis. We identify data invariants that are critical to system runtime integrity from Linux kernel 2.4.32 and Windows Research Kernel (WRK) with very low false positive rate and very low false negative rate. We then develop an Invariant Monitor to guard these data invariants against real-world malware. In our experiment, we are able to use Invariant Monitor to detect ten real-world Linux rootkits and nine real-world Windows malware and one synthetic Windows malware. ^ We leverage static and dynamic analysis of kernel and device drivers to learn the legitimate KQ requests. Based on the learned KQ requests, we build KQguard to protect KQs. At runtime, KQguard rejects all the unknown KQ requests that cannot be validated. We apply KQguard on WRK and Linux kernel, and extensive experimental evaluation shows that KQguard is efficient (up to 5.6% overhead) and effective (capable of achieving zero false positives against representative benign workloads after appropriate training and very low false negatives against 125 real-world malware and nine synthetic attacks). ^ In our system, Invariant Monitor and KQguard cooperate together to protect data invariants and KQs in the target kernel. By monitoring these integrity properties, we can detect malware by its violation of these integrity properties during execution.^

Efficient Storage and Domain-Specific Information Discovery on Semistructured Documents

The increasing amount of available semistructured data demands efficient mechanisms to store, process, and search an enormous corpus of data to encourage its global adoption. Current techniques to store semistructured documents either map them to relational databases, or use a combination of flat files and indexes. These two approaches result in a mismatch between the tree-structure of semistructured data and the access characteristics of the underlying storage devices. Furthermore, the inefficiency of XML parsing methods has slowed down the large-scale adoption of XML into actual system implementations. The recent development of lazy parsing techniques is a major step towards improving this situation, but lazy parsers still have significant drawbacks that undermine the massive adoption of XML. Once the processing (storage and parsing) issues for semistructured data have been addressed, another key challenge to leverage semistructured data is to perform effective information discovery on such data. Previous works have addressed this problem in a generic (i.e. domain independent) way, but this process can be improved if knowledge about the specific domain is taken into consideration. This dissertation had two general goals: The first goal was to devise novel techniques to efficiently store and process semistructured documents. This goal had two specific aims: We proposed a method for storing semistructured documents that maps the physical characteristics of the documents to the geometrical layout of hard drives. We developed a Double-Lazy Parser for semistructured documents which introduces lazy behavior in both the pre-parsing and progressive parsing phases of the standard Document Object Model's parsing mechanism. The second goal was to construct a user-friendly and efficient engine for performing Information Discovery over domain-specific semistructured documents. This goal also had two aims: We presented a framework that exploits the domain-specific knowledge to improve the quality of the information discovery process by incorporating domain ontologies. We also proposed meaningful evaluation metrics to compare the results of search systems over semistructured documents.