Quantifying the Impacts of the Recent Economic Crisis on Regional Tourism Industry and Economy

The purpose of this study is to explore the accuracy issue of the Input-Output model in quantifying the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on a local tourism industry and economy. Though the model has been used in the tourism impact analysis, its estimation accuracy is rarely verified empirically. The Metro Orlando area in Florida is investigated as an empirical study, and the negative change in visitor expenditure between 2007 and 2008 is taken as the direct shock. The total impacts are assessed in terms of output and employment, and are compared with the actual data. This study finds that there are surprisingly large discrepancies among the estimated and actual results, and the Input-Output model appears to overestimate the negative impacts. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some exploratory efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.

Quantifying the Impacts of the Recent Economic Crisis on a Regional Tourism Industry and Economy

The purpose of this study is to explore the accuracy issue of the Input-Output model in quantifying the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on a local tourism industry and economy. Though the model has been used in the tourism impact analysis, its estimation accuracy is rarely verified empirically. The Metro Orlando area in Florida is investigated as an empirical study, and the negative change in visitor expenditure between 2007 and 2008 is taken as the direct shock. The total impacts are assessed in terms of output and employment, and are compared with the actual data. This study finds that there are surprisingly large discrepancies among the estimated and actual results, and the Input-Output model appears to overestimate the negative impacts. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some exploratory efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.

Impacts of hurricanes on surface water flow within a wetland

Between 2001 and 2005, seven category 3 or higher major hurricanes made landfall within the US. The hydrologic impacts of these distinct climatic phenomena frequently occurring in wetland watersheds, however, are not well understood. The focus of this study was to evaluate the impacts of hurricane wind and rainfall conditions on water velocity and water elevations within the study wetland, the Florida Everglades. Specifically water velocity data was measured near two tree islands (Gumbo Limbo (GL) and Satin Leaf (SL)) and wind speed, water elevation, and rainfall were obtained from nearby wind observation stations. During the direct impacts of the hurricanes (Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma), water speed, flow direction, and hydraulic gradients were altered, and the extent of variation was positively related to wind characteristics, with significant alterations in flow direction at depth during Hurricane Wilma due to higher wind speeds. After the direct impacts, the longer lasting effect of hurricanes (time scale of a few days) resulted in altered flow speeds that changed by 50% or less. These longer lasting changes in flow speeds may be due to the redistribution of emergent vegetation.

Application of intervention analysis to evaluate the impacts of special events on freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Application of Intervention Analysis to Evaluate the Impacts of Special Events on Freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

The impacts of trade policy reforms on the Sri Lankan economy

This dissertation presents an analysis of the impacts of trade policy reforms in Sri Lanka. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed with detailed description of the domestic production structure and foreign trade. The model is then used to investigate the effects of trade policy reforms on resource allocation and welfare.^ Prior to 1977, Sri Lanka maintained stringent control over its imports through rigid quantitative restrictions. A new economic policy reform package was introduced in 1977, and it shifted Sri Lanka's development strategy toward an export oriented policy regime. The shift of policy focus from a restrictive trade regime toward a more open trade regime is expected to have a significant impact on the volume of external trade, domestic production structure, allocation of resources, and social welfare.^ Simulations are carried out to assess the effects of three major policy reforms: (1) a devaluation of the Sri Lanka rupee, (2) a partial or a complete elimination of export duties, and (3) a devaluation-cum-removal of export duties.^ Simulation results indicate that the macroeconomic impact of a devaluation-cum-removal of export duties can be substantial. They also suggest that the resource-pull effects of a devaluation and a devaluation-cum-export duty removal policy are significant. However, the model shows that a devaluation combined with an export duty reduction is likely to be a superior strategy. ^

Development of a mathematical and computer model to assess water quality impacts of hazardous compounds from minor gasoline spills in the inter-tidal zone of the Miami River, Florida

The objective of this study was to develop a model to predict transport and fate of gasoline components of environmental concern in the Miami River by mathematically simulating the movement of dissolved benzene, toluene, xylene (BTX), and methyl-tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE) occurring from minor gasoline spills in the inter-tidal zone of the river. Computer codes were based on mathematical algorithms that acknowledge the role of advective and dispersive physical phenomena along the river and prevailing phase transformations of BTX and MTBE. Phase transformations included volatilization and settling. ^ The model used a finite-difference scheme of steady-state conditions, with a set of numerical equations that was solved by two numerical methods: Gauss-Seidel and Jacobi iterations. A numerical validation process was conducted by comparing the results from both methods with analytical and numerical reference solutions. Since similar trends were achieved after the numerical validation process, it was concluded that the computer codes algorithmically were correct. The Gauss-Seidel iteration yielded at a faster convergence rate than the Jacobi iteration. Hence, the mathematical code was selected to further develop the computer program and software. The model was then analyzed for its sensitivity. It was found that the model was very sensitive to wind speed but not to sediment settling velocity. ^ A computer software was developed with the model code embedded. The software was provided with two major user-friendly visualized forms, one to interface with the database files and the other to execute and present the graphical and tabulated results. For all predicted concentrations of BTX and MTBE, the maximum concentrations were over an order of magnitude lower than current drinking water standards. It should be pointed out, however, that smaller concentrations than the latter reported standards and values, although not harmful to humans, may be very harmful to organisms of the trophic levels of the Miami River ecosystem and associated waters. This computer model can be used for the rapid assessment and management of the effects of minor gasoline spills on inter-tidal riverine water quality. ^

Evaluating the impacts of Bolsa Escola programs on student performance in Brazil

Since the 1980s, governments and organizations have promoted cash transfers in education as a tool for motivating elementary aged children to attend school. Oftentimes, the monthly payments supplemented the income a child would be making in the labor market. In Brazil, where these Bolsa or grant programs were pioneered, there has been much success in removing children from harsh labor conditions and increasing enrollment rates among the poorest families. However, the capacity of Bolsa Escola programs to meet other objectives, such as impacting educational outcomes and reducing incidences of poverty, continues to be examined. As these programs continue to be adopted globally, funding millions of children and families, evidence that demonstrates such success becomes ever more imperative. This study, therefore, examined evidence to determine whether Bolsa Escola programs have a significant impact on the academic performance of beneficiaries in Brazil. ^ Through the course of three data collection phases, multiple data sources were used to demonstrate the academic performance of fourth and eighth grade Brazilian students who were eligible to participate in either an NGO or the federal cash transfer program. MANOVAs were conducted separately for fourth and eighth grade data to determine if significant differences existed between measures of academic performance of Bolsa and non-Bolsa students. In every case and for both grade levels, significant effects were found for participation. ^ The limited qualitative data collected did not support drawing conclusions. Thematic analysis of the limited interview data pointed to possible dependency on Bolsa monthly stipends, and reallocation of responsibilities in the home in cases where children shifted from being breadwinners to students. ^

Possible climate change impacts on the hydrological and vegetative character of Everglades National Park, Florida

The increasing threat of global climate change is predicted to have immense influences on ecosystems worldwide, but could be particularly severe to vulnerable wetland environments such as the Everglades. This work investigates the impact global climate change could have on the hydrologic and vegetative makeup of Everglades National Park (ENP) under forecasted emissions scenarios. Using a simple stochastic model of aboveground water levels driven by a fluctuating rainfall input, we link across ENP a location's mean depth and percent time of inundation to the predicted changes in precipitation from climate change. Changes in the hydrologic makeup of ENP are then related to changes in vegetation community composition through the use of relationships developed between two publically available datasets. Results show that under increasing emissions scenarios mean annual precipitation was forecasted to decrease across ENP leading to a marked hydrologic change across the region. Namely, areas were predicted to be shallower in average depth of standing water and inundated less of the time. These hydrologic changes in turn lead to a shift in ENP's vegetative makeup, with xeric vegetative communities becoming more numerous and hydric vegetative communities becoming scarcer. Noticeably, the most widespread of vegetative communities, sawgrass, decreases in abundance under increasing emissions scenarios. These results are an important indicator of the effects climate change may have on the Everglades region and raise important management implications for those seeking to restore this area to its historical hydrologic and vegetative condition.

A Case Study of Health Tourism in the Jeju Province, South Korea

The United States Census Bureau (2006) reported that in 2005 more than 46 million Americans lacked health insurance, and that by 2019 national spending for health care would exceed $4.5 trillion (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, 2010). Because those numbers are expected to increase, health tourists are seeking better opportunities for low-cost, high-quality treatment in other countries, plus the added benefit of experiencing foreign cultures. Health tourism is a rapidly growing market in both advanced and developing countries. The purpose of this study was to develop an applicable model of health tourism, the Jeju-Style Health Tourism Model, for Jeju Special Self-Governing Province, in the Republic of Korea (South Korea) and to provide other cities and countries with its implications. This study employed a focus group, indepth interviews, and content analysis to discover important factors in developing the model. The results suggested that four major sources must be executed together to maximize the benefits of health tourism development. On a foundation of natural resources, knowledge-based resources were most important (54.5%), followed by artificial resources (25.7%), and expenses-based resources (19.8%).

Perceptions of the Beach Users: A Case Study of the Coastal Areas of North Cyprus Towards Establishment of a "Carrying Capacity"

Within the main elements of economic sustainability, socio-cultural sustainability, and environmental sustainability, the criteria of 'carrying capacity’ have ben emphasized through residents’ perception analysis to explore practical methods towards the application and implementation of such criteria. As data analysis revealed, the main tourist resources in the case of North Cyprus –the coast and the beach- have a certain capacity to sustain the impact and pressure of tourism. Despite the significance of the indigenous environment and with respect to the residents’ perception of optimum carrying capacity levels, this issue has not been given a due consideration. This has resulted in a process of coastal development which bypasses any measure ore application of a standard to harmonize the degree of physical development and the capacity of the beach. The main objective of this paper is to establish the concept of ‘carrying capacity’ as the means to achieve the reconciliation of environmental impacts with tourism development. The study concludes that, if carrying capacity measurement and its implementation are not incorporated into the planning decision as a clear policy, there will be grave negative consequences for those resources attracting visitors.

Differential Impacts of Information Technology Services in the Korean Hotel Industry: A Study of Management Perceptions

Successful introduction of information technology applications in various operations of hotel management is vital to most service firms. In recent decades, technologies of information, automation, and communication are increasingly recognized as essential components of a hotel company’s strategic plan. In this study, 62 super-deluxe hotels (5 star), deluxe hotels (4 star), and tourist hotels (3 star) in Korea are examined for differences in the impact of information technology services on guest’ satisfaction, guest convenience, and operational efficiency. The findings generally suggest that the impacts of information technology-enhanced services vary according to the category of hotels in Korea. The results of the study are expected to assist managers in the selections and implementation of information technology systems in their hotel.

Prospects of the Hong Kong Tourism Industry

Suggestions for future planning are offered to Hong Kong tourism practitioners and policy makers on the basis of estimated tourism demand, 1998 to 2007. The authors give an overview of the historical background of the Hong Kong tourism industry and use formal tourism forecasting techniques to estimate this demand.

Exploratory Study of the Download Speed of Leading University Hospitality and Tourism Department Websites Worldwide

Increased broadband penetration (BP) rates around the world have encouraged web designers to include more web content and additional functions on their web sites, thereby enhancing the richness and playfulness of the information. However, it is often very difficult for web surfers who are still using narrowband connections to access such web sites. Many university web sites target international audiences; therefore their download performance should be considered, as it may directly influence the user experience. This exploratory study examined 331 university hospitality and tourism department web sites in 37 countries. The empirical results showed that entry web pages of universities in Asia, with a medium BP rate (mid-BP), have the slowest download speeds, and those in Australia and New Zealand perform the best. The adoption rate of the Cascade Style Sheet (CSS) in Asia is relatively lower than that of other regions.

Variable Speed Limit Strategies to Reduce the Impacts of Traffic Flow Breakdown at Recurrent Freeway Bottlenecks

Variable Speed Limit (VSL) strategies identify and disseminate dynamic speed limits that are determined to be appropriate based on prevailing traffic conditions, road surface conditions, and weather conditions. This dissertation develops and evaluates a shockwave-based VSL system that uses a heuristic switching logic-based controller with specified thresholds of prevailing traffic flow conditions. The system aims to improve operations and mobility at critical bottlenecks. Before traffic breakdown occurrence, the proposed VSL’s goal is to prevent or postpone breakdown by decreasing the inflow and achieving uniform distribution in speed and flow. After breakdown occurrence, the VSL system aims to dampen traffic congestion by reducing the inflow traffic to the congested area and increasing the bottleneck capacity by deactivating the VSL at the head of the congested area. The shockwave-based VSL system pushes the VSL location upstream as the congested area propagates upstream. In addition to testing the system using infrastructure detector-based data, this dissertation investigates the use of Connected Vehicle trajectory data as input to the shockwave-based VSL system performance. Since the field Connected Vehicle data are not available, as part of this research, Vehicle-to-Infrastructure communication is modeled in the microscopic simulation to obtain individual vehicle trajectories. In this system, wavelet transform is used to analyze aggregated individual vehicles’ speed data to determine the locations of congestion. The currently recommended calibration procedures of simulation models are generally based on the capacity, volume and system-performance values and do not specifically examine traffic breakdown characteristics. However, since the proposed VSL strategies are countermeasures to the impacts of breakdown conditions, considering breakdown characteristics in the calibration procedure is important to have a reliable assessment. Several enhancements were proposed in this study to account for the breakdown characteristics at bottleneck locations in the calibration process. In this dissertation, performance of shockwave-based VSL is compared to VSL systems with different fixed VSL message sign locations utilizing the calibrated microscopic model. The results show that shockwave-based VSL outperforms fixed-location VSL systems, and it can considerably decrease the maximum back of queue and duration of breakdown while increasing the average speed during breakdown.