Improving the predictability of time series by chaotic parameter estimation

Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^

Two -way direction of influence in mother-infant interaction as denoted by concurrent reciprocal learning processes

This series of 5 single-subject studies used the operant conditioning paradigm to investigate, within the two-way influence process, how (a) contingent infant attention can reinforce maternal verbal behaviors during a period of mother-infant interaction and under subsequent experimental manipulation. Differential reinforcement was used to determine if it is possible that an infant attending to the mother (denoted by head-turns towards the image of the mother plus eye contact) increases (reinforces) the mother's verbal response (to a cue from the infant) upon which the infant behavior is contingent. There was also (b) an evaluation during the contrived parent-infant interaction for concurrent operant learning of infant vocal behavior via contingent verbal responding (reinforcement) implemented by the mother. Further, it was noted (c) whether or not the mother reported being aware that her responses were influenced by the infant's behavior. Findings showed: the operant conditioning of the maternal verbal behaviors were reinforced by contingent infant attention; and the operant conditioning of infant vocalizations was reinforced by contingent maternal verbal behaviors. No parent reported (1) being aware of the increase in their verbal response reinforced during operant conditioning of parental behavior nor a decrease in those responses during the DRA reversal phase, or (2) noticing a contingency between infant's and mother's response. By binomial 1-tail tests, the verbal-behavior patterns of the 5 mothers were conditioned by infant reinforcement (p < 0.02) and, concurrently, the vocal-response patterns of the 5 infants were conditioned by maternal reinforcement (p < 0.02). A program of systematic empirical research on the determinants of concurrent conditioning within mother-child interaction may provide a way to evaluate the differential effectiveness of interventions aimed at improving parent-child interactions. The work conducted in the present study is one step in this direction. ^

The Fullness of time

THE FULLNESS OF TIME is a novel about the quest for identity that transcends the limitations of moral duty, social status, and cultural conventions. Set in Tarpon Springs, Florida, in 1969, it is the story of Victor Lucas, a young Greek immigrant forced to go to war in Vietnam in another man's place in order to save the woman he loves. He must survive the war to return and reclaim his love and his rightful place in society. Based on the archetypal hero's quest as articulated by Joseph Campbell, the narrative is told from the limited third-person perspective of the main character. Though the journey is particular to Tarpon Springs in the 1960s, it echoes the human struggle and triumph in the wanderings of Ulysses. The novel's influences include Thomas Hardy's The Mayor of Casterbridge, but is also thematically related to contemporary works exploring cultural turbulence and upheaval.

The Validity of Broad and Narrow Personality Traits For Predicting Job Performance: The Differential Effects of Time

Research into the dynamicity of job performance criteria has found evidence suggesting the presence of rank-order changes to job performance scores across time as well as intraindividual trajectories in job performance scores across time. These findings have influenced a large body of research into (a) the dynamicity of validities of individual differences predictors of job performance and (b) the relationship between individual differences predictors of job performance and intraindividual trajectories of job performance. In the present dissertation, I addressed these issues within the context of the Five Factor Model of personality. The Five Factor Model is arranged hierarchically, with five broad higher-order factors subsuming a number of more narrowly tailored personality facets. Research has debated the relative merits of broad versus narrow traits for predicting job performance, but the entire body of research has addressed the issue from a static perspective -- by examining the relative magnitude of validities of global factors versus their facets. While research along these lines has been enlightening, theoretical perspectives suggest that the validities of global factors versus their facets may differ in their stability across time. Thus, research is needed to not only compare the relative magnitude of validities of global factors versus their facets at a single point in time, but also to compare the relative stability of validities of global factors versus their facets across time. Also necessary to advance cumulative knowledge concerning intraindividual performance trajectories is research into broad vs. narrow traits for predicting such trajectories. In the present dissertation, I addressed these issues using a four-year longitudinal design. The results indicated that the validities of global conscientiousness were stable across time, while the validities of conscientiousness facets were more likely to fluctuate. However, the validities of emotional stability and extraversion facets were no more likely to fluctuate across time than those of the factors. Finally, while some personality factors and facets predicted performance intercepts (i.e., performance at the first measurement occasion), my results failed to indicate a significant effect of any personality variable on performance growth. Implications for research and practice are discussed.