Essays on international macroeconomics and conflict analysis

This dissertation addressed two broad problems in international macroeconomics and conflict analysis. The first problem in the first chapter looked at the behavior of exchange rate and its interaction with industry-level tradable goods prices for three countries, USA, UK and Japan. This question has important monetary policy implications. Here, I computed to what extent changes in exchange rate affected prices of consumer, producer, and export goods. I also studied the timing of these changes in these prices. My results, based on thirty-four industrial prices for USA, UK and Japan, supported the view that changes in exchange rates significantly affect prices of industrial and consumer goods. It also provided an insight to the underlying economic process that led to changes in relative prices. ^ In the second chapter, I explored the predictability of future inflation by incorporating shocks to exchange rates and clearly specified the transmission mechanisms that link exchange rates to industry-level consumer and producer prices. Employing a variety of linear and state-of-the-art nonlinear models, I also predicted growth rates of future prices. Comparing levels of inflation obtained from the above approaches showed superiority of the structural model incorporating the exchange rate pass-through effect. ^ The second broad issue addressed in the third chapter of the dissertation investigated the economic motives for conflict, manifested by rebellion and civil war for seventeen Latin American countries. Based on the analytical framework of Garfinkel, Skaperdas and Syropoulos (2004), I employed ordinal regressions and Markov switching for a panel of seventeen countries to identify trade and openness factors responsible for conflict occurrence and intensity. The results suggested that increased trade openness reduced high intensity domestic conflicts but overdependence on agricultural exports, along with a lack of income earning opportunities lead to more conflicts. Thereafter, using the Cox Proportional Hazard model I studied “conflict duration” and found that over-reliance on agricultural exports explained a major part of the length of conflicts in addition to various socio-political factors. ^

Food customs of rural and urban Inupiaq elders and their relationships to select nutrition parameters, food insecurity, health, and physical and mental functioning

The Inupiaq Tribe resides north of the Arctic Circle in northwestern Alaska. The people are characterized by their continued dependence on harvested fish, game and plants, known as a subsistence lifestyle (Lee 2000:35-45). Many are suggesting that they leave their historical home and move to urban communities, places believed to be more comfortable as they age. Tribal Elders disagree and have stated, "Elders need to be near the river where they were raised" (Branch 2005:1). The research questions focused on differences that location had on four groups of variables: nutrition parameters, community support, physical functioning and health. A total of 101 Inupiaq Elders ≥ 50 years were surveyed: 52 from two rural villages, and 49 in Anchorage. Location did not influence energy intake or intake of protein; levels of nutrition risk and food insecurity; all had similar rates between the two groups. Both rural and urban Elders reported few limitations of ADLs and IADLs. Self-reported general health scores (SF-12.v2 GH) were also similar by location. Differences were found with rural Elders reporting higher physical functioning summary scores (SF-12.v2 PCS), higher mental health scores (SF-12.v2 MH), higher vitality and less pain even though the rural mean ages were five years older than the urban Elders. Traditional food customs appear to support the overall health and well being of the rural Inupiaq Elders as demonstrated by higher intakes of Native foods, stronger food sharing networks and higher family activity scores than did urban Elders. The rural community appeared to foster continued physical activity. It has been said that when Elders are in the rural setting they are near "people they know" and it is a place "where they can get their Native food" (NRC 2005). These factors appear to be important as Inupiaq Elders age, as rural Inupiaq Elders fared as well or better than Inupiaq Elders in terms of diet, mental and physical health.

Memory conformity: Actors and bystanders

This dissertation explored memory conformity effects on people who interacted with a confederate and of bystanders to that interaction. Two studies were carried out. Study 1 was conducted in the field. A male confederate approached a group of people at the beach and had a brief interaction. About a minute later a research assistant approached the group and administered a target-absent lineup to each person in the group. Analyses revealed that memory conformity occurred during the lineup task. Bystanders were twice as likely to conform as those who interacted with the confederate. Study 2 was carried out in a laboratory under controlled conditions. Participants were exposed to two events during their time in the laboratory. In one event, participants were shown a brief video with no determinate roles assigned. In the other event participants were randomly assigned to interact with a confederate (actor condition) or to witness that interaction (bystander condition). Participants were given memory tests on both events to understand the effects of participant role (actor vs. bystander) on memory conformity. Participants answered second to all questions, following a confederate acting as a participant, who disseminated misinformation on critical questions. Analyses revealed no significant differences in memory conformity between actors and bystanders during the movie memory task. However, differences were found for the interaction memory task such that bystanders conformed more than actors on two of four critical questions. Bystanders also conformed more than actors during a lineup identification task. The results of these studies suggest that the role a person plays in an interaction affects how susceptible they are to information from a co-witness. Theoretical and applied implications are discussed. First, the results are explained through the use of two models of memory. Second, recommendations are made for forensic investigators.

Benthic Macrophyte Distribution and Abundance in Estuarine Mangrove Lakes and Estuaries: Relationships to Environmental Variables

Annual mean salinity, light availability, and sediment depth to bedrock structured the submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) communities in subtropical mangrove-lined estuaries. Three distinct SAV communities (i.e., Chara group, Halodule group, and Low SAV coverage group) were identified along the Everglades–Florida Bay ecotone and related to water quality using a discriminant function model that predicted the type of plant community at a given site from salinity, light availability, and sediment depth to bedrock. Mean salinity alone was able to correctly classify 78% of the sites and reliably separated the Chara group from the Halodule group. The addition of light availability and sediment depth to bedrock increased model accuracy to 90% and further distinguished the Chara group from the Halodule group. Light availability was uniquely valuable in separating the Chara group from the Low SAV coverage group. Regression analyses identified significant relationships between phosphorus concentration, phytoplankton abundance, and light availability and suggest that a decline in water transparency, associated with increasing salinity, may have also contributed to the historical decline of Chara communities in the region. This investigation applies relationships between environmental variables and SAV distribution and provides a case study into the application of these general principals to ecosystem management.

Ecosystem structure, nutrient dynamics, and hydrologic relationships in tree islands of the southern Everglades, Florida, USA

Tree islands are an important structural component of many graminoid-dominated wetlands because they increase ecological complexity in the landscape. Tree island area has been drastically reduced with hydrologic modifications within the Everglades ecosystem, yet still little is known about the ecosystem ecology of Everglades tree islands. As part of an ongoing study to investigate the effects of hydrologic restoration on short hydroperiod marshes of the southern Everglades, we report an ecosystem characterization of seasonally flooded tree islands relative to locations described by variation in freshwater flow (i.e. locally enhanced freshwater flow by levee removal). We quantified: (1) forest structure, litterfall production, nutrient utilization, soil dynamics, and hydrologic properties of six tree islands and (2) soil and surface water physico-chemical properties of adjacent marshes. Tree islands efficiently utilized both phosphorus and nitrogen, but indices of nutrient-use efficiency indicated stronger P than N limitation. Tree islands were distinct in structure and biogeochemical properties from the surrounding marsh, maintaining higher organically bound P and N, but lower inorganic N. Annual variation resulting in increased hydroperiod and lower wet season water levels not only increased nitrogen use by tree species and decreased N:P values of the dominant plant species (Chrysobalanus icaco), but also increased soil pH and decreased soil temperature. When compared with other forested wetlands, these Everglades tree islands were among the most nutrient efficient, likely a function of nutrient immobilization in soils and the calcium carbonate bedrock. Tree islands of our study area are defined by: (1) unique biogeochemical properties when compared with adjacent short hydroperiod marshes and other forested wetlands and (2) an intricate relationship with marsh hydrology. As such, they may play an important and disproportionate role in nutrient and carbon cycling in Everglades wetlands. With the loss of tree islands that has occurred with the degradation of the Everglades system, these landscape processes may have been altered. With this baseline dataset, we have established a long-term ecosystem-scale experiment to follow the ecosystem trajectory of seasonally flooded tree islands in response to hydrologic restoration of the southern Everglades.

Timeshare Owner Preferences - An Analysis of Program and Service Relationships during Recessionary Times

Since the 1970s various industry studies have indicated that the vacation ownership industry has enjoyed unprecedented growth in unit sales, resort growth, and the number of owners (American Resort Devleopment Association [ARDA], 2007; ARDA, 2009a; ARDA, 2009b). However, due to the recent economic downturn these growth metrics are no longer obtainable. This external impact has caused developers to retrench and therefore reflect upon their existing product and service offerings, financial metrics, and consumer markets (ARDA, 2010a; ARDA 2010b). The crux of these findings indicates that the industry has shifted to maintaining and enhancing product and service offerings as a reaction to changing economic conditions. The findings reported in the body of this manuscript represent product and service preferences as collected from a random data pull of their existing ownership base. The study also revealed current preferences of timeshare owners with relation to services provided and products/amenities offered. Management implications and limitations of the current study are discussed.

Identity and Conflict: PKK vs. Turkey (1984-Present)

This paper offers a causal analysis of the conflict between the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Turkey that has been ongoing since 1984. The history of Kurdish politics in Turkey is investigated in order to uncover the conflict’s causes. The conflict’s origins in the Turkish state’s refusal to recognize Kurdish identity and its forced attempts to assimilate Kurds into Turkish society are examined. Other causal factors such as the political turmoil of the decades prior to the conflict’s initiation, the involvement of the student youth in politics, the rise of the PKK, and the interrelationships between the causal factors are also analyzed. Further discussion on the conflict’s influence on sociopolitical and interstate motivations and how the causes of this conflict compare with other conflicts is provided.

Bioinformatic analysis for exploring relationships between genes and gene products

To carry out their specific roles in the cell, genes and gene products often work together in groups, forming many relationships among themselves and with other molecules. Such relationships include physical protein-protein interaction relationships, regulatory relationships, metabolic relationships, genetic relationships, and much more. With advances in science and technology, some high throughput technologies have been developed to simultaneously detect tens of thousands of pairwise protein-protein interactions and protein-DNA interactions. However, the data generated by high throughput methods are prone to noise. Furthermore, the technology itself has its limitations, and cannot detect all kinds of relationships between genes and their products. Thus there is a pressing need to investigate all kinds of relationships and their roles in a living system using bioinformatic approaches, and is a central challenge in Computational Biology and Systems Biology. This dissertation focuses on exploring relationships between genes and gene products using bioinformatic approaches. Specifically, we consider problems related to regulatory relationships, protein-protein interactions, and semantic relationships between genes. A regulatory element is an important pattern or "signal", often located in the promoter of a gene, which is used in the process of turning a gene "on" or "off". Predicting regulatory elements is a key step in exploring the regulatory relationships between genes and gene products. In this dissertation, we consider the problem of improving the prediction of regulatory elements by using comparative genomics data. With regard to protein-protein interactions, we have developed bioinformatics techniques to estimate support for the data on these interactions. While protein-protein interactions and regulatory relationships can be detected by high throughput biological techniques, there is another type of relationship called semantic relationship that cannot be detected by a single technique, but can be inferred using multiple sources of biological data. The contributions of this thesis involved the development and application of a set of bioinformatic approaches that address the challenges mentioned above. These included (i) an EM-based algorithm that improves the prediction of regulatory elements using comparative genomics data, (ii) an approach for estimating the support of protein-protein interaction data, with application to functional annotation of genes, (iii) a novel method for inferring functional network of genes, and (iv) techniques for clustering genes using multi-source data.

Conflict and Consonance: Implementing an Evidence-Based Middle School Science Curriculum

This study is to investigate the middle school teachers’ concerns and perspectives during the implementation of an evidence-based curriculum that supports the development of both content knowledge and scientific practices. Two themes emerge from data analysis: consonance and conflict.

Mapping Transnational Crime in El Salvador: New Trends and Lessons from Colombia

Since El Salvador’s civil war formally ended in 1992 the small Central American nation has undergone profound social changes and significant reforms. However, few changes have been as important or as devastating as the nation’s emergence as a central hub in the transnational criminal “pipeline” or series of recombinant, overlapping chains of routes and actors that illicit organizations use to traffic in drugs, money weapons, human being, endangered animals and other products. The erasing of the once-clear ideological lines that drove the civil war and the ability of erstwhile enemies to join forces in criminal enterprises in the post-war period is an enduring and dangerous characteristic of El Salvador’s transnational criminal evolution. Trained, elite cadres from both sides, with few legitimate job opportunities, found their skills were marketable in the growing criminal structures. The groups moved from kidnapping and extortion to providing protection services to transnational criminal organizations to becoming integral parts of the organizations themselves. The demand for specialized military and transportation services in El Salvador have exploded as the Mexican DTOs consolidate their hold on the cocaine market and their relationships with the transportista networks, which is still in flux. The value of their services has risen dramatically also because of the fact that multiple Mexican DTOs, at war with each other in Mexico and seeking to physically control the geographic space of the lucrative pipeline routes in from Guatemala to Panama, are eager to increase their military capabilities and intelligence gathering capacities. The emergence of multiple non-state armed groups, often with significant ties to the formal political structure (state) through webs of judicial, legislative and administrative corruption, has some striking parallels to Colombia in the 1980s, where multiple types of violence ultimately challenged the sovereignty of state and left a lasting legacy of embedded corruption within the nation’s political structure. Organized crime in El Salvador is now transnational in nature and more integrated into stronger, more versatile global networks such as the Mexican DTOs. It is a hybrid of both local crime – with gangs vying for control off specific geographic space so they can extract payment for the safe passage of illicit products – and transnational groups that need to use that space to successfully move their products. These symbiotic relationships are both complex and generally transient in nature but growing more consolidated and dangerous.

Travel Marketing: Industry Relationships and Benefits

In the discussion - Travel Marketing: Industry Relationships and Benefits - by Andrew Vladimir, Visiting Assistant Professor, School of Hospitality Management at Florida International University, the author initially states: “A symbiotic relationship exists among the various segments of the travel and tourism industry. The author has solicited the thinking of 37experts and leaders in the field in a book dealing with these relationships and how they can be developed to benefit the industry. This article provides some salient points from those contributors.” This article could be considered a primer on networking for the hospitality industry. It has everything to do with marketing and the relationships between varied systems in the field of travel and tourism. Vladimir points to instances of success and failure in marketing for the industry at large. And there are points of view from thirty-seven contributing sources here. “Miami Beach remains a fitting example of a leisure product that has been unable to get its act together,” Vladimir shares a view. “There are some first class hotels, a few good restaurants, alluring beaches, and a splendid convention center, but there is no synergism between them, no real affinity, and so while visitors admire the Fontainebleau Hilton and enjoy the food at Joe's Stone Crabs, the reputation of Miami Beach as a resort remains sullied,” the author makes a point. In describing cohesiveness between exclusive systems, Vladimir says, “If each system can get a better understanding of the inner workings of neighboring related systems, each will ultimately be more successful in achieving its goals.” The article is suggesting that exclusive systems aren’t really exclusive at all; or at least they shouldn’t be. In a word – competition – drives the market, and in order for a property to stay afloat, aggressive marketing integrated with all attendant resources is crucial. “Tisch [Preston Robert Tisch, currently – at the time of this writing - the Postmaster General of the United States and formerly president of Lowe’s Hotels and the New York Visitors and Convention Bureau], in talking about the need for aggressive marketing says: “Never...ever...take anything for granted. Never...not for a moment...think that any product or any place will survive strictly on its own merits.” Vladimir not only sources several knowledgeable representatives in the field of hospitality and tourism, but he also links elements as disparate as real estate, car rental, cruise and airlines, travel agencies and traveler profiles to illustrate his points on marketing integration. In closing, Vladimir quotes the Honorable Donna Tuttle, Undersecretary of Commerce for Travel and Tourism, “Uniting the components of this industry in an effective marketing coalition that can compete on an equal footing with often publicly-owned foreign tourism conglomerates and multi-national consortia must be a high priority as the United States struggles to maintain and expand its share of a rapidly changing global market.”

Relationships: Food Safety and Organizational Behavior

A growing body of literature explores the relationship between organizational behavior and food safety in restaurants, but most findings are based on two participant observation studies which, while rick with insights, limit the generalizability of the results. This study attempts to overcome this limitation by surveying a sample of student-cooks enrolled in three South Florida culinary schools. Results indicate that restaurant managers must realize that the practice of food safety involves more than microbiology and HACCF!

Romantic Relationships and Adjustment in Early Adulthood: The Role of Cross-sex Experience in the Context of Social Norms and Support

Attachment and interpersonal theory suggest a sequential pattern of relationships beginning in the earliest stage of development and progressing to social and eventually romantic relationships. Theoretically, cross-sex experiences have an important role in the progression of interpersonal relationships. Despite the prevalence of these theories about the nature of romantic relationship development, the linkage of cross-sex experience (CSE) to romantic relationships has not been established. Indeed, it is an intuitive assumption, especially within Western society and these theories do not consider socio-cultural factors that may influence CSE and relationship satisfaction. This study addresses the varying contextual factors that may contribute to relationship satisfaction and adjustment, aside from CSE, and is divided into two parts. Study 1, addresses CSE, relationship satisfaction, and adjustment in a unique population, ultra-Orthodox Jews. Among this population, social or romantic CSE is limited and sexes are effectively segregated. Study 2, expanded the study to a larger sample of U.S. college students, to assess the linkage of CSE to romantic relationship satisfaction in a more typical Western population. It included social norm and support variables to address the contextual nature of relationship development and satisfaction. Results demonstrated clear differences in the relation between CSE and relationship satisfaction in the two samples. In the first sample CSE was unrelated to relationship satisfaction; nevertheless, relationship satisfaction was associated with adjustment as it is for more typical populations with greater CSE. These results suggested the importance of specifying how social norms and social support relate to CSE, relationship satisfaction and adjustment. The results from the second sample were consistent with the theoretical framework upon which the social/romantic literature is based. CSE was directly connected to relationship satisfaction. As anticipated, CSE, relationship satisfaction, and adjustment also varied as a function of social norms and support. These findings further validate the influence of socio-cultural factors on relationship satisfaction and adjustment. This study contributes to the romantic relationship literature and broadens our understanding of the complex nature of interpersonal and romantic relationships.

Rwanda's Miracle: From Genocide and Poverty to Peace and Economic Prosperity

The purpose of this thesis was to examine how liberalization and the introduction of pro-poor policies can be successful in post-conflict countries using the Rwanda coffee market as a case study. My research supports the notion that economic development, political stability and peace can be a result of liberalization when policies that are pro-poor and focus on the largest sector of the population are created. The study examines why and how Rwanda chose to liberalize their economy in the way they did by focusing on the intentions of the actors and the effects their actions have had on the coffee market and country as a whole. The findings suggest that Rwanda’s coffee market liberalization has been successful and has contributed to stability and economic development in Rwanda. The conclusion indicates that pro-poor liberalization policies with the assistance from a variety of actors and institutions can lead developing countries on the path to development in ways the international community has not seen before.

Romantic relationships and adjustment in early adulthood: The role of cross-sex experience in the context of social norms and support

Attachment and interpersonal theory suggest a sequential pattern of relationships beginning in the earliest stage of development and progressing to social and eventually romantic relationships. Theoretically, cross-sex experiences have an important role in the progression of interpersonal relationships. Despite the prevalence of these theories about the nature of romantic relationship development, the linkage of cross-sex experience (CSE) to romantic relationships has not been established. Indeed, it is an intuitive assumption, especially within Western society and these theories do not consider socio-cultural factors that may influence CSE and relationship satisfaction. This study addresses the varying contextual factors that may contribute to relationship satisfaction and adjustment, aside from CSE, and is divided into two parts. Study 1, addresses CSE, relationship satisfaction, and adjustment in a unique population, ultra-Orthodox Jews. Among this population, social or romantic CSE is limited and sexes are effectively segregated. Study 2, expanded the study to a larger sample of U.S. college students, to assess the linkage of CSE to romantic relationship satisfaction in a more typical Western population. It included social norm and support variables to address the contextual nature of relationship development and satisfaction. Results demonstrated clear differences in the relation between CSE and relationship satisfaction in the two samples. In the first sample CSE was unrelated to relationship satisfaction; nevertheless, relationship satisfaction was associated with adjustment as it is for more typical populations with greater CSE. These results suggested the importance of specifying how social norms and social support relate to CSE, relationship satisfaction and adjustment. The results from the second sample were consistent with the theoretical framework upon which the social/romantic literature is based. CSE was directly connected to relationship satisfaction. As anticipated, CSE, relationship satisfaction, and adjustment also varied as a function of social norms and support. These findings further validate the influence of socio-cultural factors on relationship satisfaction and adjustment. This study contributes to the romantic relationship literature and broadens our understanding of the complex nature of interpersonal and romantic relationships.^