9 resultados para Decision Theory
em Corvinus Research Archive - The institutional repository for the Corvinus University of Budapest
Resumo:
A dolgozatban a dntselmletben fontos szerepet jtsz pros sszehasonlts mtrix prioritsvektornak meghatrozsra j megkzeltst alkalmazunk. Az A pros sszehasonlts mtrix s a prioritsvektor ltal definilt B konzisztens mtrix kztti eltrst a Kullback-Leibler relatv entrpia-fggvny segtsgvel mrjk. Ezen eltrs minimalizlsa teljesen kitlttt mtrix esetben konvex programozsi feladathoz vezet, nem teljesen kitlttt mtrix esetben pedig egy fixpont problmhoz. Az eltrsfggvnyt minimalizl prioritsvektor egyben azzal a tulajdonsggal is rendelkezik, hogy az A mtrix elemeinek sszege s a B mtrix elemeinek sszege kztti klnbsg ppen az eltrsfggvny minimumnak az n-szerese, ahol n a feladat mrete. gy az eltrsfggvny minimumnak rtke kt szempontbl is lehet alkalmas az A mtrix inkonzisztencijnak a mrsre. _____ In this paper we apply a new approach for determining a priority vector for the pairwise comparison matrix which plays an important role in Decision Theory. The divergence between the pairwise comparison matrix A and the consistent matrix B defined by the priority vector is measured with the help of the Kullback-Leibler relative entropy function. The minimization of this divergence leads to a convex program in case of a complete matrix, leads to a fixed-point problem in case of an incomplete matrix. The priority vector minimizing the divergence also has the property that the difference of the sums of elements of the matrix A and the matrix B is n times the minimum of the divergence function where n is the dimension of the problem. Thus we developed two reasons for considering the value of the minimum of the divergence as a measure of inconsistency of the matrix A.
Resumo:
We apply cooperative game theory concepts to analyze a Holt-Modigliani-Muth-Simon (HMMS) supply chain. The bullwhip effect in a two-stage supply chain (supplier-manufacturer) in the framework of the HMMS-model with quadratic cost functions is considered. It is assumed that both firms minimize their relevant costs, and two cases are examined: the supplier and the manufacturer minimize their relevant costs in a decentralized and in a centralized (cooperative) way. The question of how to share the savings of the decreased bullwhip effect in the centralized (cooperative) model is answered by the weighted Shapley value, by a transferable utility cooperative game theory tool, where the weights are for the exogenously given bargaining powers of the participants of the supply chain. = A cikkben a kooperatv jtkelmlet fogalmait alkalmazzuk egy Holt-Mogigliani-Muth-Simon-tpus elltsi lnc esetben. Az ostorcsaps-hats elemeit egy beszllt-termel elltsi lncban ragadjuk meg egy kvadratikus kszletezsi s termelsi kltsg mellett. Felttelezzk, hogy mindkt vllalat minimalizlja a relevns kltsgeit. Kt mkdsi rendszert hasonltunk ssze: egy hierarchikus dntshozatali rendszert, amikor elszr a termel, majd a beszllt optimalizlja helyzett, majd egy centralizlt (kooperatv) modellt, amikor a vllalatok az egyttes kltsgket minimalizljk. A krds gy merl fel, hogy a cskkentett ostorcsaps-hats esetn hogyan osszk meg a rszvevk ebben a transzferlhat hasznossg kooperatv jtkban a kltsg megtakartst, exogn mdon adott trgyalsi pozci mellett.
Resumo:
Mennyiben kpes jelenleg a kzssgi gazdasgtan az adpolitikk nemzetek fltti centralizcijra vonatkoz politikai dntsek megalapozsra? Vlaszunk rviden az lesz, hogy a kzssgi gazdasgtan frama - noha szmos relevns gazdasgi s politikai tnyez hatst sikeresen elemzi - jelenleg nem knl kielgtnek tekinthet dntsi kritriumokat a dntshozk szmra. Ennek oka, hogy kzponti szerepet jtszik benne egy, a modellek szempontjbl exogn s a kzgazdasgi elmlettl idegen tnyez: a kormnyzatok jindulatra, pontosabban annak mrtkre vonatkoz premissza. Tanulmnyunk az adverseny fisklis fderalista elmlett vizsglja, s megprbl ltalnosabb szinten is a kzszektor gazdasgelmletnek jelenlegi llapotra, valamint tovbbfejlesztsre vonatkoz tanulsgokat levonni. A kiutat az elmleti zskutcbl a kormnyzati mkds s dntshozatal, valamint a kvnatos gazdasgpolitikai dntsek elmletnek sszekapcsolsa jelentheti. Erre megtrtntek az els ksrletek, de a szisztematikus s tfog elemzs egyelre vrat magra. / === / How far can community economics provide a basis for political decision-making on supranational centralization of taxation policies? The short answer here will be that although the mainstream of community economics succeeds in analysing many relevant economic and political factors, it fails at present to provide satisfactory criteria for decisionmakers. This is because a central role is played in it by a factor exogenous to the models and alien to economic theory: the premise of the measure of goodwill from governments. The study examines the fiscal federalist theory of tax competition. It tries to draw conclusions, on a more general level, about the present state of the economic theory of the public sector and future development of it. The way out of the theoretical blind alley could be to link the theories of government operation and decision-making and of desirable economic-policy decision-making. The first attempts to do so have been made, but a systematic and comprehensive analysis is still awaited.
Resumo:
A szerz a megelgedsre trekv dntshozatalt s eszkzeinek, az egyszerst dntsi stratgiknak a hatkonysgi krdseit trgyalja. Az egyszerst stratgiknak s az alkalmazsukat tmogat attitdnek nemcsak az idt, hanem az informcikeress s - feldolgozs egyb kltsgvonzatait is tekintetbe vve szmos elnyk van. A szerz a szakirodalom rendszerezsvel rvilgt az egyni szint leegyszerstsek termszetre s pozitv hatsaikra. A bevezetst s a meghatrozsokat kveten az egyszerst stratgik hatkonysgi krdseit trgyalja a krnyezeti tnyezk fggvnyben, majd a dntshoz szemlyisgt s pszicholgiai jlltt rint sszefggsekrl r. A tanulmny vgn folyamatban lv empirikus kutatsnak krdseire tr r, mely kutats az zleti gyakorlat empirikus vizsglatval kvn hozzjrulni az eddig fknt laboratriumi ksrletek eredmnyeire pl tudshoz. ___________ Placing itself in the domain of bounded rationality theory, the article deals with the advantages of satisficing and of using decision heuristics. As to the approach to decision heuristics, the author stands on the positive side, not focusing on biases, but showing interest in the effectiveness potential in heuristics. As a review of recent literature, the article deals with different advantages of satisficing and of using simplifying strategies, be it cognitive advantages, the effectiveness, or advantages concerning the psychological well-being of the decision maker. Actual research questions of the adaptive toolbox approach, and the problem of determination by personality traits are presented based on the review of recent research results. Further research directions are indicated after the review. By presenting his research questions the author shows how he is willing to enrich the results of this research program by his own empirical work.
Resumo:
Herbert Simon, a korltozott racionalits elmletnek megalkotja szerint a dntshozatalunk hatkonysgt az hatrozza meg, hogy korltozott kognitv kapacitsaink birtokban milyen stratgikkal birkzunk meg a komplex krnyezet kihvsaival. Az erre az elmletre pt kutatsok egyik alapvetse, hogy az egyni problmamegoldsi folyamat helyzetspecifikus s ez az idomuls kulcsfontossg az eredmnyessgben s hatkonysgban. A dntshoz rendelkezik egy adaptv szerszmosldval, amelybl a megfelel helyzetekben a megfelel dntsi eljrsokat vlasztja. A tanulmnyban a szerz egy kvalitatv kutats eredmnyeire ptve, a beszlltvlaszts pldjn keresztl mutat be lehetsges vlaszokat a keveset kutatott krdsre: hogyan mkdik az adaptivits folyamata? A tanulmny a dntsi helyzethez val alkalmazkods kialakulst vizsglja a dntsi folyamatok kognitv szintjn. ______ Herbert Simon, the author of theory of bounded rationality claimed that the results of our decision-making is defined by the approprietness of strategies with which we handle the complexity of the environment with our bounded cognitive capacities. One of the main issues or research programs building on this theory is that problem solving is situation-specific, and the adjustment of strategies to actual situational factors is crucial for the effectiveness and efficiency of decision-making. The decision-maker possesses an adaptive toolbox, from which he chooses the right decision tools in the right situations. The author, based on the findnings of a qualitative study, presents possible answers to the not well-elaborated question: how does the process of adaptivity work? Forming of an adaptive mechanism is in the focus.
Resumo:
A knyvvizsglati kockzat a tves auditjelents kiadsnak kockzata olyan esetekben, amikor a beszmol lnyeges hibs lltst tartalmaz. Ez a kockzat indirekt mdon a hitelintzetek s pnzgyi vllalkozsok mkdsben is megjelenik azokban az esetekben, amikor a lnyeges hibs lltst a finanszrozott vllalkozs auditlt beszmolja tartalmazza, amelynek az alapjn finanszrozsi dntst hoznak, vagy a finanszrozs folytatsrl a beszmolban szerepl, hibs informcikbl szmtott hitelkovennsok alapjn dntenek. A knyvvizsglat kockzatban a vizsglt gazdlkod zleti kockzatai tkrzdnek vissza, ezrt a kockzat felmrse s az ellenrzs ennek alapjn val megtervezse, majd vgrehajtsa kulcsfontossg. Jelen tanulmny kapcsoldva a Hitelintzeti Szemle 2011. vi 4. szmhoz szintn a kockzat s bizonytalansg tmakrt trgyalja, pontosabban ennek egy gyakorlati vetlett: a bizonyossgfggvnyek (belief functions) alkalmazst a knyvvizsglatban; mindezt a teljessg s a tanknyvszer rendszerfelpts ignye nlkl. A mdszer ugyanis haznkban szinte ismeretlen, nemzetkzi viszonylatban viszont empirikus kutatsban is rmutattak mr az alkalmazs lehetsges elnyeire a hagyomnyos valsznsgelmleten alapul szmszer kockzatbecslsekkel szemben. Eszerint a bizonyossgfggvnyek jobban reprezentljk a knyvvizsglknak a kockzatrl alkotott kpt, mint a valsznsgek, mert szemben a hagyomnyos modellel nem kt, hanem hrom llapotot kezelnek: a pozitv bizonytk ltezst, a negatv bizonytk ltezst s a bizonytk hinynak esett. _______ Audit risk is the risk that the auditor expresses an inappropriate audit opinion when the fi nancial statements are materially misstated. This kind of risk indirectly appears in the fi nancial statements of fi nancial institutions, when the material misstatement is in the fi nanced entitys statements that serve as a basis for lending decisions or when the decision is made based upon credit covenants calculated from misstated information. The risks of the audit process refl ect the business risks of the auditee, so the assessment of risks, and further the planning and performance of the audit based on it is of key importance. The current study connecting to No 4 2011 of Hitelintzeti Szemle also discusses the topic of risk and uncertainty, or to be more precise a practical implementation of the aforementioned: the application of belief functions in the fi eld of external audit. All this without the aim of achieving completeness or textbook-like scrutiny in building up the theory. While the formalism is virtually unknown in Hungary, on the international scene empirical studies pointed out the possible advantages of the application of the method in contrast to risk assessments based on the traditional theory of probability. Accordingly, belief functions provide a better representation of auditors perception of risk, as in contrast to the traditional model, belief functions deal with three rather than two states: the existence of supportive evidence, that of negative evidence and the lack of evidence.
Resumo:
Ez a tanulmny a projektvezetsi szakirodalomban kialakult ismeretanyagot szem eltt tartva (noha ttelesen nem hivatkozva arra) trja fel azt a sajtos s tipikusnak nevezhet kontextust, amelyben a projektalap szervezetek projektmarketing tevkenysge megnyilvnul. A tanulmny clja teht nem magnak a projektmarketingnek a krdskrre irnyul, hanem elssorban annak projektspecifikus kontextusra. Jellegt illeten a tanulmny spekulatv jelleg, vagyis lnyegt tekintve nem empirikus kutatsi eredmnyekbl levont kvetkeztetsekre pl. _____ The author analyses the cognitive level of individual decisions by placing the adaptive decision-maker in the centre of interest. The main question is how do adaptive processes evolve and what factors determine the adaptive mechanism. The author builds on his own qualitative study conducted with the Grounded Theory Methodology in the SME sector. The supplier selection decision is chosen from the wide range of business decisions. From the research results the two elements of the adaptive mechanism the metastructure and the attitude set , the process of their evolution and the factors determining this process are presented. The findings here are a middle-range theory, which can be elaborated further, but they provide some interesting insights already.
Resumo:
Strategy is highly important for organisational success and the achievement of competitive advantage. Strategy is dynamic and it depends on accurate individual decision-making from medium and high-level managers and executives. Since managers always formulate strategy, its formulation depends mostly on their assertive decisions. Making good decisions is a complex task, even more in todays business world where a large quantity of information and a dynamic environment forces people to decide without having complete information. As Shafir, Simonson, & Tversky (1993) point out, "the making of decisions, both big and small, is often difficult because of uncertainty and conflict". In this paper the author will explain a basic theoretical framework about top manager's individual decision-making, showing how complex the process of making high-impact decisions is; then, he will compare this theory with one of the most important streams in strategic management, the Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm. Finally, within the context of individual decision-making and the RBV stream, the author will show how individual decision makers in top management positions constitute a valuable, rare, non-imitable and non-substitutable resource that provides sustained competitive advantage.
