The Experience of Development and Application Perspectives of Learning Integrated Expert Systems in the Educational Process

The main principles and experience of development of learning integrated expert systems based on the third generation instrumental complex AT-TECHNOLOGY are considered.

Static and Dynamic Integrated Expert Systems: State of the Art, Problems and Trends

Systemized analysis of trends towards integration and hybridization in contemporary expert systems is conducted, and a particular class of applied expert systems, integrated expert systems, is considered. For this purpose, terminology, classification, and models, proposed by the author, are employed. As examples of integrated expert systems, Russian systems designed in this field and available to the majority of specialists are analyzed.

The On-board Operative Advisory Expert Systems for Anthropocentric Object

A class of intelligent systems located on anthropocentric objects that provide a crew with recommendations on the anthropocentric object's rational behavior in typical situations of operation is considered. We refer to this class of intelligent systems as onboard real-time advisory expert systems. Here, we present a formal model of the object domain, procedures for obtaining knowledge about the object domain, and a semantic structure of basic functional units of the onboard real-time advisory expert systems of typical situations. The stages of the development and improvement of knowledge bases for onboard real-time advisory expert systems of typical situations that are important in practice are considered.

Using the Simulation Modeling Methods for the Designing Real-Time Integrated Expert Systems

Certain theoretical and methodological problems of designing real-time dynamical expert systems, which belong to the class of the most complex integrated expert systems, are discussed. Primary attention is given to the problems of designing subsystems for modeling the external environment in the case where the environment is represented by complex engineering systems. A specific approach to designing simulation models for complex engineering systems is proposed and examples of the application of this approach based on the G2 (Gensym Corp.) tool system are described.

Experience of Development and Application of Expert Systems for Economic Macroparameters Forecasting and Operation

In this article there are considered problems of forecasting economical macroparameters, and in the first place, index of inflation. Concept of development of synthetical forecasting methods which use directly specified expert information as well as calculation result on the basis of objective economical and mathematical models for forecasting separate “slowly changeable parameters” are offered. This article discusses problems of macroparameters operation on the basis of analysis of received prognostic magnitude.

Self-organization of Functioning Process of Expert System with the Use of Subject Domain Ontology

Optimization of design, creation, functioning and accompaniment processes of expert system is the important problem of artificial intelligence theory and decisions making methods techniques. In this paper the approach to its solving with the use of technology, being based on methodology of systems analysis, ontology of subject domain, principles and methods of self-organisation, is offered. The aspects of such approach realization, being based on construction of accordance between the ontology hierarchical structure and sequence of questions in automated systems for examination, are expounded.

Expert System for Decision-Making Problem in Economics

An expert system (ES) is a class of computer programs developed by researchers in artificial intelligence. In essence, they are programs made up of a set of rules that analyze information about a specific class of problems, as well as provide analysis of the problems, and, depending upon their design, recommend a course of user action in order to implement corrections. ES are computerized tools designed to enhance the quality and availability of knowledge required by decision makers in a wide range of industries. Decision-making is important for the financial institutions involved due to the high level of risk associated with wrong decisions. The process of making decision is complex and unstructured. The existing models for decision-making do not capture the learned knowledge well enough. In this study, we analyze the beneficial aspects of using ES for decision- making process.

Decision–making Support Systems as Personal Intellectual Device of a Decision–maker

The problems of the cognitive development of subject “perception” are discussed in the thesis: from the object being studied and means of action till the single system “subject – modus operandi of subject – object”. Problems of increasing adequacy of models of “live” nature are analyzed. The concept of developing decisionmaking support systems as expert systems to decision-making support systems as personal device of a decisionmaker is discussed. The experience of the development of qualitative prediction on the basis of polyvalent dependences, represented by a decision tree, which realizes the concept of “plural subjective determinism”, is analyzed. The examples of applied systems prediction of ecological-economic and social processes are given. The ways of their development are discussed.

Distances between Predicates in By-Analogy Reasoning Systems

The purpose is to develop expert systems where by-analogy reasoning is used. Knowledge “closeness” problems are known to frequently emerge in such systems if knowledge is represented by different production rules. To determine a degree of closeness for production rules a distance between predicates is introduced. Different types of distances between two predicate value distribution functions are considered when predicates are “true”. Asymptotic features and interrelations of distances are studied. Predicate value distribution functions are found by empirical distribution functions, and a procedure is proposed for this purpose. An adequacy of obtained distribution functions is tested on the basis of the statistical 2 χ –criterion and a testing mechanism is discussed. A theorem, by which a simple procedure of measurement of Euclidean distances between distribution function parameters is substituted for a predicate closeness determination one, is proved for parametric distribution function families. The proposed distance measurement apparatus may be applied in expert systems when reasoning is created by analogy.

Dynamic Distribution Simulation Model Objects Based on Knowledge

This paper presents the process of load balancing in simulation system Triad.Net, the architecture of load balancing subsystem. The main features of static and dynamic load balancing are discussed and new approach, controlled dynamic load balancing, needed for regular mapping of simulation model on the network of computers is proposed. The paper considers linguistic constructions of Triad language for different load balancing algorithms description.

An Intelligent System for Investigations and Provision of Safety for Complex Constructions

Methodology of computer-aided investigation and provision of safety for complex constructions and a prototype of the intelligent applied system, which implements it, are considered. The methodology is determined by the model of the object under scrutiny, by the structure and functions of investigation of safety as well as by a set of research methods. The methods are based on the technologies of object-oriented databases, expert systems and on the mathematical modeling. The intelligent system’s prototype represents component software, which provides for support of decision making in the process of safety investigations and investigation of the cause of failure. Support of decision making is executed by analogy, by determined search for the precedents (cases) with respect to predicted (on the stage of design) and observed (on the stage of exploitation) parameters of the damage, destruction and malfunction of a complex hazardous construction.

Mixed Theories

In the present paper we investigate the life cycles of formalized theories that appear in decision making instruments and science. In few words mixed theories are build in the following steps: Initially a small collection of facts is the kernel of the theory. To express these facts we make a special formalized language. When the collection grows we add some inference rules and thus some axioms to compress the knowledge. The next step is to generalize these rules to all expressions in the formalized language. For these rules we introduce some conclusion procedure. In such a way we make small theories for restricted fields of the knowledge. The most important procedure is the mixing of these partial knowledge systems. In that step we glue the theories together and eliminate the contradictions. The last operation is the most complicated one and some simplifying procedures are proposed.

Measure Refutations and Metrics on Statements of Experts (Logical Formulas) in the Models for Some Theory

* This work was financially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 04-01-00858a.

Methods of Adaptive Extraction and Analysis of Knowledge for Knowledge-base Construction and Fast Decision Making

An approach for knowledge extraction from the information arriving to the knowledge base input and also new knowledge distribution over knowledge subsets already present in the knowledge base is developed. It is also necessary to realize the knowledge transform into parameters (data) of the model for the following decision-making on the given subset. It is assumed to realize the decision-making with the fuzzy sets’ apparatus.

Teaching Strategies and Ontologies for E-Learning

* The work is partially suported by Russian Foundation for Basic Studies (grant 02-01-00466).