Agent-based simulation of lock-in dynamics in a duopoly

Lock-in is observed in real world markets of experience goods; experience goods are goods whose characteristics are difficult to determine in advance, but ascertained upon consumption. We create an agent-based simulation of consumers choosing between two experience goods available in a virtual market. We model consumers in a grid representing the spatial network of the consumers. Utilising simple assumptions, including identical distributions of product experience and consumers having a degree of follower tendency, we explore the dynamics of the model through simulations. We conduct simulations to create a lock-in before testing several hypotheses upon how to break an existing lock-in; these include the effect of advertising and free give-away. Our experiments show that the key to successfully breaking a lock-in required the creation of regions in a consumer population. Regions arise due to the degree of local conformity between agents within the regions, which spread throughout the population when a mildly superior competitor was available. These regions may be likened to a niche in a market, which gains in popularity to transition into the mainstream.

Modelling e-business processes:a component-based simulation approach

With new and emerging e-business technologies to transform business processes, it is important to understand how those technologies will affect the performance of a business. Will the overall business process be cheaper, faster and more accurate or will a sub-optimal change have been implemented? The use of simulation to model the behaviour of business processes is well established, and it has been applied to e-business processes to understand their performance in terms of measures such as lead-time, cost and responsiveness. This paper introduces the concept of simulation components that enable simulation models of e-business processes to be built quickly from generic e-business templates. The paper demonstrates how these components were devised, as well as the results from their application through case studies.

Phase shift keyed systems based on a gain switched laser transmitter

Return-to-Zero (RZ) and Non-Return-to-Zero (NRZ) Differential Phase Shift Keyed (DPSK) systems require cheap and optimal transmitters for widespread implementation. The authors report on a gain switched Discrete Mode (DM) laser that can be employed as a cost efficient transmitter in a 10.7 Gb/s RZ DPSK system and compare its performance to that of a gain switched Distributed Feed-Back (DFB) laser. Experimental results show that the gain switched DM laser readily provides error free performance and a receiver sensitivity of -33.1 dBm in the 10.7 Gbit/s RZ DPSK system. The standard DFB laser on the other hand displays an error floor at 10(-1) in the same RZ DPSK system. The difference in performance, between the two types of gain switched transmitters, is analysed by investigating their linewidths. We also demonstrate, for the first time, the generation of a highly coherent gain switched pulse train which displays a spectral comb of approximately 13 sidebands spaced by the 10.7 GHz modulation frequency. The filtered side-bands are then employed as narrow linewidth Continuous Wave (CW) sources in a 10.7 Gb/s NRZ DPSK system.

Catalytic systems based on carbon supports for the low-temperature oxidation of carbon monoxide

Catalytic systems containing palladium, copper, and iron compounds on carbon supports-kernel activated carbon and fibrous carbon materials (Karbopon and Busofit)-for the low-temperature oxidation of CO were synthesized. The effects of the nature of the support, the concentration and composition of the active component, and the conditions of preparation on the efficiency of the catalytic system were studied. The catalytic system based on Karbopon exhibited the highest activity: the conversion of carbon monoxide was 90% at room temperature and a reaction mixture (0.03% CO in air) space velocity of 10 000 h. It was found that the metals occurred in oxidized states in the course of operation: palladium mainly occurred as Pd, whereas copper and iron occurred as Cu and Fe, respectively. © 2008 MAIK Nauka.

Self-explanation in adaptive systems based on runtime goal-based models

The behaviour of self adaptive systems can be emergent, which means that the system’s behaviour may be seen as unexpected by its customers and its developers. Therefore, a self-adaptive system needs to garner confidence in its customers and it also needs to resolve any surprise on the part of the developer during testing and maintenance. We believe that these two functions can only be achieved if a self-adaptive system is also capable of self-explanation. We argue a self-adaptive system’s behaviour needs to be explained in terms of satisfaction of its requirements. Since self-adaptive system requirements may themselves be emergent, we propose the use of goal-based requirements models at runtime to offer self-explanation of how a system is meeting its requirements. We demonstrate the analysis of run-time requirements models to yield a self-explanation codified in a domain specific language, and discuss possible future work.

Catalytic systems based on carbon fiber materials for the low-temperature oxidation of carbon monoxide

New heterogenized catalytic systems for the low-temperature oxidation of CO were synthesized by supporting solutions of Pd, Cu, and Fe salts on carbon fibrous materials (carbopon and busofit). The carbon supports were studied by elemental analysis, SEM, TGA, and TPD. The effects of the nature of the support, the concentration and composition of the active component, and the conditions of preparation on the efficiency of the catalytic system were studied. It was ascertained that attenuation of hydrophilic properties of the support led to the decrease in system activity. The investigation of the catalysts by XPS showed that sample treatment in the reaction medium results in redistribution of the components of the active phase in the near-surface layer of the catalyst. The catalytic system based on carbon fibrous material carbopon prepared by supporting active components (Pd, Cu, and Fe salts) in three stages with intermediate activation in the reaction medium ensures 95% conversion of CO under respiratory conditions, and is promising for the design of the main element of breathing masks on its basis.

Organisational learning - a critical systems thinking discipline

Original Paper European Journal of Information Systems (2001) 10, 135–146; doi:10.1057/palgrave.ejis.3000394 Organisational learning—a critical systems thinking discipline P Panagiotidis1,3 and J S Edwards2,4 1Deloitte and Touche, Athens, Greece 2Aston Business School, Aston University, Aston Triangle, Birmingham, B4 7ET, UK Correspondence: Dr J S Edwards, Aston Business School, Aston University, Aston Triangle, Birmingham, B4 7ET, UK. E-mail: j.s.edwards@aston.ac.uk 3Petros Panagiotidis is Manager responsible for the Process and Systems Integrity Services of Deloitte and Touche in Athens, Greece. He has a BSc in Business Administration and an MSc in Management Information Systems from Western International University, Phoenix, Arizona, USA; an MSc in Business Systems Analysis and Design from City University, London, UK; and a PhD degree from Aston University, Birmingham, UK. His doctorate was in Business Systems Analysis and Design. His principal interests now are in the ERP/DSS field, where he serves as project leader and project risk managment leader in the implementation of SAP and JD Edwards/Cognos in various major clients in the telecommunications and manufacturing sectors. In addition, he is responsible for the development and application of knowledge management systems and activity-based costing systems. 4John S Edwards is Senior Lecturer in Operational Research and Systems at Aston Business School, Birmingham, UK. He holds MA and PhD degrees (in mathematics and operational research respectively) from Cambridge University. His principal research interests are in knowledge management and decision support, especially methods and processes for system development. He has written more than 30 research papers on these topics, and two books, Building Knowledge-based Systems and Decision Making with Computers, both published by Pitman. Current research work includes the effect of scale of operations on knowledge management, interfacing expert systems with simulation models, process modelling in law and legal services, and a study of the use of artifical intelligence techniques in management accounting. Top of pageAbstract This paper deals with the application of critical systems thinking in the domain of organisational learning and knowledge management. Its viewpoint is that deep organisational learning only takes place when the business systems' stakeholders reflect on their actions and thus inquire about their purpose(s) in relation to the business system and the other stakeholders they perceive to exist. This is done by reflecting both on the sources of motivation and/or deception that are contained in their purpose, and also on the sources of collective motivation and/or deception that are contained in the business system's purpose. The development of an organisational information system that captures, manages and institutionalises meaningful information—a knowledge management system—cannot be separated from organisational learning practices, since it should be the result of these very practices. Although Senge's five disciplines provide a useful starting-point in looking at organisational learning, we argue for a critical systems approach, instead of an uncritical Systems Dynamics one that concentrates only on the organisational learning practices. We proceed to outline a methodology called Business Systems Purpose Analysis (BSPA) that offers a participatory structure for team and organisational learning, upon which the stakeholders can take legitimate action that is based on the force of the better argument. In addition, the organisational learning process in BSPA leads to the development of an intrinsically motivated information organisational system that allows for the institutionalisation of the learning process itself in the form of an organisational knowledge management system. This could be a specific application, or something as wide-ranging as an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) implementation. Examples of the use of BSPA in two ERP implementations are presented.

Modelling human performance within manufacturing systems design:from a theoretical towards a practical framework

Computer-based simulation is frequently used to evaluate the capabilities of proposed manufacturing system designs. Unfortunately, the real systems are often found to perform quite differently from simulation predictions and one possible reason for this is an over-simplistic representation of workers' behaviour within current simulation techniques. The accuracy of design predictions could be improved through a modelling tool that integrates with computer-based simulation and incorporates the factors and relationships that determine workers' performance. This paper explores the viability of developing a similar tool based on our previously published theoretical modelling framework. It focuses on evolving this purely theoretical framework towards a practical modelling tool that can actually be used to expand the capabilities of current simulation techniques. Based on an industrial study, the paper investigates how the theoretical framework works in practice, analyses strengths and weaknesses in its formulation, and proposes developments that can contribute towards enabling human performance modelling in a practical way.

Implementing an agent-based model with a spatial visual display in discrete-event simulation software

There has been an increasing interest in the use of agent-based simulation and some discussion of the relative merits of this approach as compared to discrete-event simulation. There are differing views on whether an agent-based simulation offers capabilities that discrete-event cannot provide or whether all agent-based applications can at least in theory be undertaken using a discrete-event approach. This paper presents a simple agent-based NetLogo model and corresponding discrete-event versions implemented in the widely used ARENA software. The two versions of the discrete-event model presented use a traditional process flow approach normally adopted in discrete-event simulation software and also an agent-based approach to the model build. In addition a real-time spatial visual display facility is provided using a spreadsheet platform controlled by VBA code embedded within the ARENA model. Initial findings from this investigation are that discrete-event simulation can indeed be used to implement agent-based models and with suitable integration elements such as VBA provide the spatial displays associated with agent-based software.

Three-port DC-DC converter for stand-alone photovoltaic systems

System efficiency and cost effectiveness are of critical importance for photovoltaic (PV) systems. This paper addresses the two issues by developing a novel three-port dc-dc converter for stand-alone PV systems, based on an improved Flyback-Forward topology. It provides a compact single-unit solution with a combined feature of optimized maximum power point tracking (MPPT), high step-up ratio, galvanic isolation, and multiple operating modes for domestic and aerospace applications. A theoretical analysis is conducted to analyze the operating modes followed by simulation and experimental work. This paper is focused on a comprehensive modulation strategy utilizing both PWM and phase-shifted control that satisfies the requirement of PV power systems to achieve MPPT and output voltage regulation. A 250-W converter was designed and prototyped to provide experimental verification in term of system integration and high conversion efficiency.

Digital communication networks incorporating mobile data terminals

The use of digital communication systems is increasing very rapidly. This is due to lower system implementation cost compared to analogue transmission and at the same time, the ease with which several types of data sources (data, digitised speech and video, etc.) can be mixed. The emergence of packet broadcast techniques as an efficient type of multiplexing, especially with the use of contention random multiple access protocols, has led to a wide-spread application of these distributed access protocols in local area networks (LANs) and a further extension of them to radio and mobile radio communication applications. In this research, a proposal for a modified version of the distributed access contention protocol which uses the packet broadcast switching technique has been achieved. The carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance (CSMA/CA) is found to be the most appropriate protocol which has the ability to satisfy equally the operational requirements for local area networks as well as for radio and mobile radio applications. The suggested version of the protocol is designed in a way in which all desirable features of its precedents is maintained. However, all the shortcomings are eliminated and additional features have been added to strengthen its ability to work with radio and mobile radio channels. Operational performance evaluation of the protocol has been carried out for the two types of non-persistent and slotted non-persistent, through mathematical and simulation modelling of the protocol. The results obtained from the two modelling procedures validate the accuracy of both methods, which compares favourably with its precedent protocol CSMA/CD (with collision detection). A further extension of the protocol operation has been suggested to operate with multichannel systems. Two multichannel systems based on the CSMA/CA protocol for medium access are therefore proposed. These are; the dynamic multichannel system, which is based on two types of channel selection, the random choice (RC) and the idle choice (IC), and the sequential multichannel system. The latter has been proposed in order to supress the effect of the hidden terminal, which always represents a major problem with the usage of the contention random multiple access protocols with radio and mobile radio channels. Verification of their operation performance evaluation has been carried out using mathematical modelling for the dynamic system. However, simulation modelling has been chosen for the sequential system. Both systems are found to improve system operation and fault tolerance when compared to single channel operation.

Outlook and application status of the Rolls-Royce Fuel Cell Systems SOFC

Rolls-Royce fuel cell systems is developing megawatt scale power systems based on solid oxide fuel cell technology. The hybrid design promises to meet challenging energy efficiency, cost and performance targets in a grid friendly fashion. Analysis and testing to date indicate that those targets can be met and enable a wealth of fuel cell applications to meet customer and existing grid and modern grid requirements. Working with a global development team, a series of laboratory tests and evaluations are completed and future field test and evaluation and demonstration planned.

Chemical modification of polymers

Based on the knowledge of PVC degradation and stabilisation, chemical modifications were imposed on degraded PVC and raw PVC with the aim of obtaining non-migrating additives. The modifications were carried out mainly in the presence of dibutyl maleate (DBM), and the resulting polymer contained dibutyl maleic residues. Such modifications result in a polymer which contain substantive additives which resist migration under aggressive environments. Previous studies have shown that stable nitroxyl radicals function as stabilisers in polymer during processing (e.g. PP, PVC) by deactivating a large number of kinetic chains via a redox process whereby the concentrations of the nitroxyl and its reduced form, the hydroxylamine, fluctuate reciprocally and rhythmically. In order to understand the major reactions involved in such systems, a simulation method was used which resulted in a mathematical model and some rate constants, explaining the kinetic behaviour exhibited by such system. In the process of forming a suitable model, two nonlinear oscillators were proposed, which could be of interest in the study of nonlinear phenomenon because of their chaotic behaviour.

Isotropic compression of mixtures of hard and soft spheres

The compaction behaviour of powders with soft and hard components is of particular interest to the paint processing industry. Unfortunately, at the present time, very little is known about the internal mechanisms within such systems and therefore suitable tests are required to help in the interpretative process. The TRUBAL, Distinct Element Method (D.E.M.) program was the method of investigation used in this study. Steel (hard) and rubber (soft) particles were used in the randomly-generated, binary assemblies because they provided a sharp contrast in physical properties. For reasons of simplicity, isotropic compression of two-dimensional assemblies was also initially considered. The assemblies were first subject to quasi-static compaction, in order to define their behaviour under equilibrium conditions. The stress-strain behaviour of the assemblies under such conditions was found to be adequately described by a second-order polynomial expansion. The structural evolution of the simulation assemblies was also similar to that observed for real powder systems. Further simulation tests were carried out to investigate the effects of particle size on the compaction behaviour of the two-dimensional, binary assemblies. Later work focused on the quasi-static compaction behaviour of three-dimensional assemblies, because they represented more realistic particle systems. The compaction behaviour of the assemblies during the simulation experiments was considered in terms of percolation theory concepts, as well as more familiar macroscopic and microstructural parameters. Percolation theory, which is based on ideas from statistical physics, has been found to be useful in the interpretation of the mechanical behaviour of simple, elastic lattices. However, from the evidence of this study, percolation theory is also able to offer a useful insight into the compaction behaviour of more realistic particle assemblies.