Scenario planning:teaching how to anticipate perceived environmental uncertainty within strategy development

Scenario Planning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices in the teaching of scenario planning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenario planning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmental uncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenario planning researchers, which suggests that Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) influences micro-external or industrial environmental as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper provides a review of the most dominant theories on scenario planning process, demonstrates the need to consider PEU theory within scenario planning and presents how this can be done. The scope of this paper is to enhance the scenario planning process as a tool taught for Strategy Development. A case vignette is developed based on published scenarios to demonstrate the potential utilisation of the proposed process.

Perceived environmental uncertainty in scenario planning

Scenarioplanning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices of scenarioplanning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenarioplanning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmentaluncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenarioplanning researchers, which suggests that PerceivedEnvironmentalUncertainty (PEU) influences the micro-external as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper reviews the most dominant theories on scenarioplanning process and PEU, developing three propositions for the practice of scenarioplanning process. Furthermore, it shows how these propositions can be integrated in the scenarioplanning process in order to improve the development of strategy.

The effects of perceived business uncertainty, external consultants and risk management on organisational outcomes

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relations between perceived business uncertainty (PBU), use of external risk management (RM) consultants, formalisation of RM, magnitude of RM methods and perceived organisational outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper is based on a questionnaire survey of members of the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants in the UK. Using AMOS 17.0, the paper tests the strength of the direct and indirect effects among the variables and explores the fit of the overall path model. Findings: The results indicate significant and positive associations exist between the extent of PBU and the level ofRMformalisation, as well as between the level ofRMformalisation and the magnitude of RMmethods adopted. The use of externalRMconsultants is also found to have a significant and positive impact on the magnitude of RM methods adopted. Finally, both the extent of RM formalisation and the magnitude of RM methods adopted are seen to be significantly associated with overall improvement in organisational outcomes. Research limitations/implications: The study uses perceptual measures of the level of business uncertainty, usage of RM and organisational outcomes. Further, the respondents are members of a management accounting professional body and the views of other managers, such as risk managers, who are also important to the governance process are not incorporated. Originality/value: This study provides empirical evidence on the impact ofRMdesign and usage on improvements in organisational outcomes. It contributes to the RM literature where empirical research is needed in order to be comparable with the traditional management control system literature.

A goal-based modeling approach to develop requirements of an adaptive system with environmental uncertainty

Dynamically adaptive systems (DASs) are intended to monitor the execution environment and then dynamically adapt their behavior in response to changing environmental conditions. The uncertainty of the execution environment is a major motivation for dynamic adaptation; it is impossible to know at development time all of the possible combinations of environmental conditions that will be encountered. To date, the work performed in requirements engineering for a DAS includes requirements monitoring and reasoning about the correctness of adaptations, where the DAS requirements are assumed to exist. This paper introduces a goal-based modeling approach to develop the requirements for a DAS, while explicitly factoring uncertainty into the process and resulting requirements. We introduce a variation of threat modeling to identify sources of uncertainty and demonstrate how the RELAX specification language can be used to specify more flexible requirements within a goal model to handle the uncertainty. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

Taking risks in the face of uncertainty:an exploratory analysis of green innovation

The relationship between uncertainty and firms’ risk-taking behaviour has been a focus of investigation since early discussion of the nature of enterprise activity. Here, we focus on how firms’ perceptions of environmental uncertainty and their perceptions of the risks involved impact on their willingness to undertake green innovation. Analysis is based on a cross-sectional survey of UK food companies undertaken in 2008. The results reinforce the relationship between perceived environmental uncertainty and perceived innovation risk and emphasise the importance of macro-uncertainty in shaping firms’ willingness to undertake green innovation. The perceived (market-related) riskiness of innovation also positively influences the probability of innovating, suggesting either a proactive approach to stimulating market disruption or an opportunistic approach to innovation leadership.

Organisational receptivity for change:combining context and capability to explain competitive advantage

This thesis explores efforts to conjoin organisational contexts and capabilities in explaining sustainable competitive advantage. Oliver (1997) argued organisations need to balance the need to conform to industry’s requirements to attain legitimization (e.g. DiMaggio & Powell, 1983), and the need for resource optimization (e.g. Barney, 1991). The author hypothesized that such balance can be viewed as movements along the homogeneity-heterogeneity continuum. An organisation in a homogenous industry possesses similar characteristics as its competitors, as opposed to a heterogeneous industry in which organisations within are differentiated and competitively positioned (Oliver, 1997). The movement is influenced by the dynamic environmental conditions that an organisation is experiencing. The author extended Oliver’s (1997) propositions of combining RBV’s focus on capabilities with institutional theory’s focus on organisational context, as well as redefining organisational receptivity towards change (ORC) factors from Butler and Allen’s (2008) findings. The authors contributed to the theoretical development of ORC theory to explain the attainment of sustainable competitive advantage. ORC adopts the assumptions from both institutional and RBV theories, where the receptivity factors include both organisational contexts and capabilities. The thesis employed a mixed method approach in which sequential qualitative quantitative studies were deployed to establish a robust, reliable, and valid ORC scale. The adoption of Hinkin’s (1995) three-phase scale development process was updated, thus items generated from interviews and literature reviews went through numerous exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to achieve convergent, discriminant, and nomological validities. Samples in the first phase (semi structured interviews) were hotel owners and managers. In the second phase, samples were MBA students, and employees of private and public sectors. In the third phase, samples were hotel managers. The final ORC scale is a parsimonious second higher-order latent construct. The first-order constructs comprises four latent receptivity factors which are ideological vision (4 items), leading change (4 items), implementation capacity (4 items), and change orientation (7 items). Hypotheses testing revealed that high levels of perceived environmental uncertainty leads to high levels of receptivity factor. Furthermore, the study found a strong positive correlation between receptivity factors and competitive advantage, and between receptivity factors and organisation performance. Mediation analyses revealed that receptivity factors partially mediate the relationship between perceived environmental uncertainty, competitive advantage and organisational performance.

Relaxing claims:coping with uncertainty while evaluating assumptions at run time

Self-adaptation enables software systems to respond to changing environmental contexts that may not be fully understood at design time. Designing a dynamically adaptive system (DAS) to cope with this uncertainty is challenging, as it is impractical during requirements analysis and design time to anticipate every environmental condition that the DAS may encounter. Previously, the RELAX language was proposed to make requirements more tolerant to environmental uncertainty, and Claims were applied as markers of uncertainty that document how design assumptions affect goals. This paper integrates these two techniques in order to assess the validity of Claims at run time while tolerating minor and unanticipated environmental conditions that can trigger adaptations. We apply the proposed approach to the dynamic reconfiguration of a remote data mirroring network that must diffuse data while minimizing costs and exposure to data loss. Results show RELAXing Claims enables a DAS to reduce adaptation costs. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

Learning in manufacturing organizations:what factors predict effectiveness?

This paper argues that it is possible to identify factors which pre-dispose organizations to adopt effective learning strategies and processes. It is hypothesized that effective OL is associated with: profitability, environmental uncertainty, structure, approach to HRM and quality orientation. The study focuses on forty-four manufacturing organizations, and draws on longitudinal data gathered through interviews. The findings suggest that two of these variables - approach to HRM and quality orientation - are particularly strongly correlated with measures of OL. It is concluded that effective learning mechanisms, with the potential to improve the quality of OL processes, are more likely to be established in businesses where HRM and quality initiatives are well established.

Response:Ideas are ten a penny - It's team implementation not idea generation that counts

Cet article présente une synthèse des recherches et théories qui éclairent notre compréhension de la créativité et de la mise en oeuvre de l’innovation dans les groupes de travail. Il semble que la créativité apparaisse essentiellement au cours des premières étapes du processus, avant la mise en oeuvre. On étudie l’influence des caractéristiques de la tâche, des capacités et de l’éventail des connaissances du groupe, des demandes externes, des mécanismes d’intégration et de cohérence de groupe. La perception d’une menace, l’incertitude ou de fortes exigences entravent la créativité, mais favorisent l’innovation. La diversité des connaissances et des capacités est un bon prédicteur de l’innovation, mais l’intégration du groupe et les compétences sont indispensables pour récolter les fruits de la diversité. On examine aussi les implications théoriques et pratiques de ces considérations. In this article I synthesise research and theory that advance our understanding of creativity and innovation implementation in groups at work. It is suggested that creativity occurs primarily at the early stages of innovation processes with innovation implementation later. The influences of task characteristics, group knowledge diversity and skill, external demands, integrating group processes and intragroup safety are explored. Creativity, it is proposed, is hindered whereas perceived threat, uncertainty or other high levels of demands aid the implementation of innovation. Diversity of knowledge and skills is a powerful predictor of innovation, but integrating group processes and competencies are needed to enable the fruits of this diversity to be harvested. The implications for theory and practice are also explored.

Sparkling fountains or stagnant ponds:An integrative model of creativity and innovation implementation in work groups

In this article I synthesise research and theory that advance our understanding of creativity and innovation implementation in groups at work. It is suggested that creativity occurs primarily at the early stages of innovation processes with innovation implementation later. The influences of task characteristics, group knowledge diversity and skill, external demands, integrating group processes and intragroup safety are explored. Creativity, it is proposed, is hindered whereas perceived threat, uncertainty or other high levels of demands aid the implementation of innovation. Diversity of knowledge and skills is a powerful predictor of innovation, but integrating group processes and competencies are needed to enable the fruits of this diversity to be harvested. The implications for theory and practice are also explored.

An investigation of managerial skills:Implications for personnel policy

This research explores the conceptual basis in adopting a skills approach to management development. The literature reveals a number of development approaches but only a limited appreciation of how the manager does his job i.e. of the skills that he needs. An investigation of managerial skills was conducted with 10 manager s mainly occupying middle and senior positions. The principal source of evidence was the manager's thoughts on what he did and how he did it, although the interviews were supplemented by formal and informal observation. There was also a dialectic value from discussions with other analysts/managers and empathy between analyst and practitioner also played a part. Each manager was invited to comment upon his own skills analysis as a check upon validity. The study supports the view that the manager similar to other skilled practitioners, is conceptually a model builder and operationally a navigator (Singleton 1978b) . The manager variously holds enactive, pictorial, symbolic and hybrid models that enable him to understand his world and act in it. The universal managerial function is decision making and the study presents a preliminary nomenclature in classifying decision processes or perceptual skills. Managerial skills are also reflected in interpersonal interaction where the hallmark is mutual construction and attribution and in 'self-management’ where the requirement is to cope with the inner rather than the outer world. Differences between the managers are most evident in perceptual skills, the more senior manager requiring increasing ability to process abstract information and take account of environmental uncertainty. He will also make greater use of 'off- line’ information. The practical purpose in studying managerial skills is to facilitate the improvement of managerial performance and the implications of the research for training, selection and appraisal are explored.

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.

Handling and communicating uncertainty in chained geospatial web services

Recent developments in service-oriented and distributed computing have created exciting opportunities for the integration of models in service chains to create the Model Web. This offers the potential for orchestrating web data and processing services, in complex chains; a flexible approach which exploits the increased access to products and tools, and the scalability offered by the Web. However, the uncertainty inherent in data and models must be quantified and communicated in an interoperable way, in order for its effects to be effectively assessed as errors propagate through complex automated model chains. We describe a proposed set of tools for handling, characterizing and communicating uncertainty in this context, and show how they can be used to 'uncertainty- enable' Web Services in a model chain. An example implementation is presented, which combines environmental and publicly-contributed data to produce estimates of sea-level air pressure, with estimates of uncertainty which incorporate the effects of model approximation as well as the uncertainty inherent in the observational and derived data.

Exchanging uncertainty: interoperable geostatistics?

Traditionally, geostatistical algorithms are contained within specialist GIS and spatial statistics software. Such packages are often expensive, with relatively complex user interfaces and steep learning curves, and cannot be easily integrated into more complex process chains. In contrast, Service Oriented Architectures (SOAs) promote interoperability and loose coupling within distributed systems, typically using XML (eXtensible Markup Language) and Web services. Web services provide a mechanism for a user to discover and consume a particular process, often as part of a larger process chain, with minimal knowledge of how it works. Wrapping current geostatistical algorithms with a Web service layer would thus increase their accessibility, but raises several complex issues. This paper discusses a solution to providing interoperable, automatic geostatistical processing through the use of Web services, developed in the INTAMAP project (INTeroperability and Automated MAPping). The project builds upon Open Geospatial Consortium standards for describing observations, typically used within sensor webs, and employs Geography Markup Language (GML) to describe the spatial aspect of the problem domain. Thus the interpolation service is extremely flexible, being able to support a range of observation types, and can cope with issues such as change of support and differing error characteristics of sensors (by utilising descriptions of the observation process provided by SensorML). XML is accepted as the de facto standard for describing Web services, due to its expressive capabilities which allow automatic discovery and consumption by ‘naive’ users. Any XML schema employed must therefore be capable of describing every aspect of a service and its processes. However, no schema currently exists that can define the complex uncertainties and modelling choices that are often present within geostatistical analysis. We show a solution to this problem, developing a family of XML schemata to enable the description of a full range of uncertainty types. These types will range from simple statistics, such as the kriging mean and variances, through to a range of probability distributions and non-parametric models, such as realisations from a conditional simulation. By employing these schemata within a Web Processing Service (WPS) we show a prototype moving towards a truly interoperable geostatistical software architecture.