Analytic hierarchy process helps evaluate projects in Indian oil pipeline industry

Conventionally, oil pipeline projects are evaluated thoroughly by the owner before investment decision is made using market, technical and financial analysis sequentially. The market analysis determines pipelines throughput and supply and demand points. Subsequent, technical analysis identifies technological options and economic and financial analysis then derives the least cost option among all technically feasible options. The subsequent impact assessment tries to justify the selected option by addressing environmental and social issues. The impact assessment often suggests alternative sites, technologies, and/or implementation methodology, necessitating revision of technical and financial analysis. This study addresses these issues via an integrated project evaluation and selection model. The model uses analytic hierarchy process, a multiple-attribute decision-making technique. The effectiveness of the model has been demonstrated through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.

Project risk management in analytic framework

Risks and uncertainties are part and parcel of any project as projects are planned with many assumptions. Therefore, managing those risks is the key to project success. Although risk is present in all most all projects, large-scale construction projects are most vulnerable. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively posses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. This study introduces an analytical framework for managing risk in projects. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are analyzed, and alternative responses are derived with cost implication for mitigating the identified risks. A decision-making framework is then formulated using decision tree. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative. The responses, which require least cost is selected. The entire methodology has been explained through a case study of an oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in managing projects has been demonstrated. © INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING.

Integrated approach to project feasibility analysis:a case study

Feasibility studies of industrial projects consist of multiple analyses carried out sequentially. This is time consuming and each analysis screens out alternatives based solely on the merits of that analysis. In cross-country petroleum pipeline project selection, market analysis determines throughput requirement and supply and demand points. Technical analysis identifies technological options and alternatives for pipe-line routes. Economic and financial analysis derive the least-cost option. The impact assessment addresses environmental issues. The impact assessment often suggests alternative sites, routes, technologies, and/or implementation methodology, necessitating revision of technical and financial analysis. This report suggests an integrated approach to feasibility analysis presented as a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.

Regulatory price performance, excess cost indexes and profitability:how effective is price cap regulation in the water industry?

In this study we apply an index number approach to allow for cross sectional comparisons of relative profitability, productivity and price performance of the regulated Water and Sewerage companies (WaSCs) in England and Wales during the years 1991-2008. In order to better analyse the impact of regulation on WaSC performance, we decompose actual economic profits into spatial multilateral Fisher productivity (TFP) index, the inverse of which is demonstrated to be a regulatory excess cost index that measures the deviation of a firm’s actual costs from benchmark costs, and a newly developed regulatory total price performance (TPP) index, which measures the excess of regulated revenues relative to benchmark costs. Increases (decreases) in regulatory price performance are indicative of the loosening (tightening) of price cap regulation. Moreover, we also show that the relationship between actual economic profitability, regulatory excess costs and regulatory price performance indices can be used to categorize regulatory price caps as “weak”, “powerful” or “catch-up promoting”. The results indicated that throughout the entire 1991-2008 period, price caps were never “powerful”, in the sense that they required less productive firms to immediately and fully catch-up to the most productive firm to regain economic profitability. More specifically, during the years 1991-2000 price caps were “weak” as prices were high enough for the firms to achieve economic profits despite their low productivity levels. However, after 2001 prices became “catch up promoting” as they required less productive companies to eliminate at least some excess costs in order to eliminate economic losses. Finally, we emphasize that as our results also clearly demonstrated a much closer alignment between allowed revenues and benchmark costs after 2001, Ofwat’s approach during this period was not only appropriate, but should also be continued in the 2009 price review.

Measurement of productivity and cost of the direct labour organisation within highways maintenance departments

The objective of this thesis is to investigate, through an empirical study, the different functions of the highways maintenance departments and to suggest methods by means of which road maintenance work could be carried out in a more efficient way by utilising its resources of men, material and plant to the utmost advantage. This is particularly important under the present circumstances of national financial difficulties which have resulted in continuous cuts in public expenditure. In order to achieve this objective, the researcher carried out a survey among several Highways Authorities by means of questionnaire and interview. The information so collected was analysed in order to understand the actual, practical situation within highways manintenance departments, and highlight any existing problems, and try to answer the question of how they could become more efficient. According to the results obtained by the questionnaire and the interview, and the analysis of these results, the researcher concludes that it is the management system where least has been done, and where problems exist and are most complex. The management of highways maintenance departments argue that the reasons for their problems include both financial and organisational difficulties, apart from the political aspect and nature of the activities undertaken. The researcher believes that this ought to necessitate improving the management's analytical tools and techniques in order to achieve the most effective way of performing each activity. To this end the researcher recommends several related procedures to be adopted by the management of the highways maintenance departments. These recommendations, arising from the study, involve the technical, practical and human aspects. These are essential factors of which management should be aware - and certainly should not neglect - in order to achieve its objectives of improved productivity in the highways maintenance departments.

Rapid testing for group B streptococcus during labour: a test accuracy study with evaluation of acceptability and cost-effectiveness

OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and optical immunoassay (OIA) rapid tests for maternal group B streptococcal (GBS) colonisation at labour. DESIGN: A test accuracy study was used to determine the accuracy of rapid tests for GBS colonisation of women in labour. Acceptability of testing to participants was evaluated through a questionnaire administered after delivery, and acceptability to staff through focus groups. A decision-analytic model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of various screening strategies. SETTING: Two large obstetric units in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Women booked for delivery at the participating units other than those electing for a Caesarean delivery. INTERVENTIONS: Vaginal and rectal swabs were obtained at the onset of labour and the results of vaginal and rectal PCR and OIA (index) tests were compared with the reference standard of enriched culture of combined vaginal and rectal swabs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The accuracy of the index tests, the relative accuracies of tests on vaginal and rectal swabs and whether test accuracy varied according to the presence or absence of maternal risk factors. RESULTS: PCR was significantly more accurate than OIA for the detection of maternal GBS colonisation. Combined vaginal or rectal swab index tests were more sensitive than either test considered individually [combined swab sensitivity for PCR 84% (95% CI 79-88%); vaginal swab 58% (52-64%); rectal swab 71% (66-76%)]. The highest sensitivity for PCR came at the cost of lower specificity [combined specificity 87% (95% CI 85-89%); vaginal swab 92% (90-94%); rectal swab 92% (90-93%)]. The sensitivity and specificity of rapid tests varied according to the presence or absence of maternal risk factors, but not consistently. PCR results were determinants of neonatal GBS colonisation, but maternal risk factors were not. Overall levels of acceptability for rapid testing amongst participants were high. Vaginal swabs were more acceptable than rectal swabs. South Asian women were least likely to have participated in the study and were less happy with the sampling procedure and with the prospect of rapid testing as part of routine care. Midwives were generally positive towards rapid testing but had concerns that it might lead to overtreatment and unnecessary interference in births. Modelling analysis revealed that the most cost-effective strategy was to provide routine intravenous antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) to all women without screening. Removing this strategy, which is unlikely to be acceptable to most women and midwives, resulted in screening, based on a culture test at 35-37 weeks' gestation, with the provision of antibiotics to all women who screened positive being most cost-effective, assuming that all women in premature labour would receive IAP. The results were sensitive to very small increases in costs and changes in other assumptions. Screening using a rapid test was not cost-effective based on its current sensitivity, specificity and cost. CONCLUSIONS: Neither rapid test was sufficiently accurate to recommend it for routine use in clinical practice. IAP directed by screening with enriched culture at 35-37 weeks' gestation is likely to be the most acceptable cost-effective strategy, although it is premature to suggest the implementation of this strategy at present.

Improving the cost-effectiveness of photographic screening for diabetic macular oedema:a prospective, multi-centre, UK study

Background/aims: Retinal screening programmes in England and Scotland have similar photographic grading schemes for background (non-proliferative) and proliferative diabetic retinopathy, but diverge over maculopathy. We looked for the most cost-effective method of identifying diabetic macular oedema from retinal photographs including the role of automated grading and optical coherence tomography, a technology that directly visualises oedema. Methods: Patients from seven UK centres were recruited. The following features in at least one eye were required for enrolment: microaneurysms/dot haemorrhages or blot haemorrhages within one disc diameter, or exudates within one or two disc diameters of the centre of the macula. Subjects had optical coherence tomography and digital photography. Manual and automated grading schemes were evaluated. Costs and QALYs were modelled using microsimulation techniques. Results: 3540 patients were recruited, 3170 were analysed. For diabetic macular oedema, England's scheme had a sensitivity of 72.6% and specificity of 66.8%; Scotland 's had a sensitivity of 59.5% and specificity of 79.0%. When applying a ceiling ratio of £30 000 per quality adjusted life years (QALY) gained, Scotland's scheme was preferred. Assuming automated grading could be implemented without increasing grading costs, automation produced a greater number of QALYS for a lower cost than England's scheme, but was not cost effective, at the study's operating point, compared with Scotland's. The addition of optical coherence tomography, to each scheme, resulted in cost savings without reducing health benefits. Conclusions: Retinal screening programmes in the UK should reconsider the screening pathway to make best use of existing and new technologies.