A Markov switching unobserved component analysis of the CDX index term premium

Using a Markov switching unobserved component model we decompose the term premium of the North American CDX index into a permanent and a stationary component. We establish that the inversion of the CDX term premium is induced by sudden changes in the unobserved stationary component, which represents the evolution of the fundamentals underpinning the probability of default in the economy. We find evidence that the monetary policy response from the Fed during the crisis period was effective in reducing the volatility of the term premium. We also show that equity returns make a substantial contribution to the term premium over the entire sample period.

A semantic web environment for component model

Component-based development (CBD) has become an important emerging topic in the software engineering field. It promises long-sought-after benefits such as increased software reuse, reduced development time to market and, hence, reduced software production cost. Despite the huge potential, the lack of reasoning support and development environment of component modeling and verification may hinder its development. Methods and tools that can support component model analysis are highly appreciated by industry. Such a tool support should be fully automated as well as efficient. At the same time, the reasoning tool should scale up well as it may need to handle hundreds or even thousands of components that a modern software system may have. Furthermore, a distributed environment that can effectively manage and compose components is also desirable. In this paper, we present an approach to the modeling and verification of a newly proposed component model using Semantic Web languages and their reasoning tools. We use the Web Ontology Language and the Semantic Web Rule Language to precisely capture the inter-relationships and constraints among the entities in a component model. Semantic Web reasoning tools are deployed to perform automated analysis support of the component models. Moreover, we also proposed a service-oriented architecture (SOA)-based semantic web environment for CBD. The adoption of Semantic Web services and SOA make our component environment more reusable, scalable, dynamic and adaptive.

Regulatory foci and organisational commitment

We use regulatory focus theory to derive specific predictions regarding the differential relationships between regulatory focus and commitment. We estimated a structural equation model using a sample of 520 private and public sector employees and found in line with our hypotheses that (a) promotion focus related more strongly to affective commitment than prevention focus, (b) prevention focus related more strongly to continuance commitment than promotion focus, (c) promotion and prevention focus had equally strong effects on normative commitment. Implications of these findings for the three-component model of commitment, especially the ‘dual nature’ of normative commitment, as well as implications for human resources management and leadership are discussed.

Pryolytic and kinetic study of Chlorella Vulgaris under isothermal and non-isothermal conditions

Algae are a new potential biomass for energy production but there is limited information on their pyrolysis and kinetics. The main aim of this thesis is to investigate the pyrolytic behaviour and kinetics of Chlorella vulgaris, a green microalga. Under pyrolysis conditions, these microalgae show their comparable capabilities to terrestrial biomass for energy and chemicals production. Also, the evidence from a preliminary pyrolysis by the intermediate pilot-scale reactor supports the applicability of these microalgae in the existing pyrolysis reactor. Thermal decomposition of Chlorella vulgaris occurs in a wide range of temperature (200-550°C) with multi-step reactions. To evaluate the kinetic parameters of their pyrolysis process, two approaches which are isothermal and non-isothermal experiments are applied in this work. New developed Pyrolysis-Mass Spectrometry (Py-MS) technique has the potential for isothermal measurements with a short run time and small sample size requirement. The equipment and procedure are assessed by the kinetic evaluation of thermal decomposition of polyethylene and lignocellulosic derived materials (cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin). In the case of non-isothermal experiment, Thermogravimetry- Mass Spectrometry (TG-MS) technique is used in this work. Evolved gas analysis provides the information on the evolution of volatiles and these data lead to a multi-component model. Triplet kinetic values (apparent activation energy, pre-exponential factor, and apparent reaction order) from isothermal experiment are 57 (kJ/mol), 5.32 (logA, min-1), 1.21-1.45; 9 (kJ/mol), 1.75 (logA, min-1), 1.45 and 40 (kJ/mol), 3.88 (logA, min-1), 1.45- 1.15 for low, middle and high temperature region, respectively. The kinetic parameters from non-isothermal experiment are varied depending on the different fractions in algal biomass when the range of apparent activation energies are 73-207 (kJ/mol); pre-exponential factor are 5-16 (logA, min-1); and apparent reaction orders are 1.32–2.00. The kinetic procedures reported in this thesis are able to be applied to other kinds of biomass and algae for future works.

Genie:supporting the model driven development of reflective, component-based adaptive systems

Engineering adaptive software is an increasingly complex task. Here, we demonstrate Genie, a tool that supports the modelling, generation, and operation of highly reconfigurable, component-based systems. We showcase how Genie is used in two case-studies: i) the development and operation of an adaptive flood warning system, and ii) a service discovery application. In this context, adaptation is enabled by the Gridkit reflective middleware platform.

Validation of a multi-component digital dissolution model for irregular particles

A new mesoscale simulation model for solids dissolution based on an computationally efficient and versatile digital modelling approach (DigiDiss) is considered and validated against analytical solutions and published experimental data for simple geometries. As the digital model is specifically designed to handle irregular shapes and complex multi-component structures, use of the model is explored for single crystals (sugars) and clusters. Single crystals and the cluster were first scanned using X-ray microtomography to obtain a digital version of their structures. The digitised particles and clusters were used as a structural input to digital simulation. The same particles were then dissolved in water and the dissolution process was recorded by a video camera and analysed yielding: the overall dissolution times and images of particle size and shape during the dissolution. The results demonstrate the coherence of simulation method to reproduce experimental behaviour, based on known chemical and diffusion properties of constituent phase. The paper discusses how further sophistications to the modelling approach will need to include other important effects such as complex disintegration effects (particle ejection, uncertainties in chemical properties). The nature of the digital modelling approach is well suited to for future implementation with high speed computation using hybrid conventional (CPU) and graphical processor (GPU) systems.

Mixtures of probabilistic principal component analysers

Principal component analysis (PCA) is one of the most popular techniques for processing, compressing and visualising data, although its effectiveness is limited by its global linearity. While nonlinear variants of PCA have been proposed, an alternative paradigm is to capture data complexity by a combination of local linear PCA projections. However, conventional PCA does not correspond to a probability density, and so there is no unique way to combine PCA models. Previous attempts to formulate mixture models for PCA have therefore to some extent been ad hoc. In this paper, PCA is formulated within a maximum-likelihood framework, based on a specific form of Gaussian latent variable model. This leads to a well-defined mixture model for probabilistic principal component analysers, whose parameters can be determined using an EM algorithm. We discuss the advantages of this model in the context of clustering, density modelling and local dimensionality reduction, and we demonstrate its application to image compression and handwritten digit recognition.

Probabilistic principal component analysis

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a ubiquitous technique for data analysis and processing, but one which is not based upon a probability model. In this paper we demonstrate how the principal axes of a set of observed data vectors may be determined through maximum-likelihood estimation of parameters in a latent variable model closely related to factor analysis. We consider the properties of the associated likelihood function, giving an EM algorithm for estimating the principal subspace iteratively, and discuss the advantages conveyed by the definition of a probability density function for PCA.

Probabilistic principal component analysis

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a ubiquitous technique for data analysis and processing, but one which is not based upon a probability model. In this paper we demonstrate how the principal axes of a set of observed data vectors may be determined through maximum-likelihood estimation of parameters in a latent variable model closely related to factor analysis. We consider the properties of the associated likelihood function, giving an EM algorithm for estimating the principal subspace iteratively, and discuss the advantages conveyed by the definition of a probability density function for PCA.

Integrated component scheduling models for chip shooter machines

This paper focuses on minimizing printed circuit board (PCB) assembly time for a chipshootermachine, which has a movable feeder carrier holding components, a movable X–Y table carrying a PCB, and a rotary turret with multiple assembly heads. The assembly time of the machine depends on two inter-related optimization problems: the component sequencing problem and the feeder arrangement problem. Nevertheless, they were often regarded as two individual problems and solved separately. This paper proposes two complete mathematical models for the integrated problem of the machine. The models are verified by two commercial packages. Finally, a hybrid genetic algorithm previously developed by the authors is presented to solve the model. The algorithm not only generates the optimal solutions quickly for small-sized problems, but also outperforms the genetic algorithms developed by other researchers in terms of total assembly time.

Grouping and the pitch of a mistuned fundamental component:effects of applying simultaneous multiple mistunings to the other harmonics

Mistuning a harmonic produces an exaggerated change in its pitch. This occurs because the component becomes inconsistent with the regular pattern that causes the other harmonics (constituting the spectral frame) to integrate perceptually. These pitch shifts were measured when the fundamental (F0) component of a complex tone (nominal F0 frequency = 200 Hz) was mistuned by +8% and -8%. The pitch-shift gradient was defined as the difference between these values and its magnitude was used as a measure of frame integration. An independent and random perturbation (spectral jitter) was applied simultaneously to most or all of the frame components. The gradient magnitude declined gradually as the degree of jitter increased from 0% to ±40% of F0. The component adjacent to the mistuned target made the largest contribution to the gradient, but more distant components also contributed. The stimuli were passed through an auditory model, and the exponential height of the F0-period peak in the averaged summary autocorrelation function correlated well with the gradient magnitude. The fit improved when the weighting on more distant channels was attenuated by a factor of three per octave. The results are consistent with a grouping mechanism that computes a weighted average of periodicity strength across several components. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of catalytic pyrolysis of cassava rhizome by principal component analysis

Rhizome of cassava plants (Manihot esculenta Crantz) was catalytically pyrolysed at 500 °C using analytical pyrolysis–gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (Py–GC/MS) method in order to investigate the relative effect of various catalysts on pyrolysis products. Selected catalysts expected to affect bio-oil properties were used in this study. These include zeolites and related materials (ZSM-5, Al-MCM-41 and Al-MSU-F type), metal oxides (zinc oxide, zirconium (IV) oxide, cerium (IV) oxide and copper chromite) catalysts, proprietary commercial catalysts (Criterion-534 and alumina-stabilised ceria-MI-575) and natural catalysts (slate, char and ashes derived from char and biomass). The pyrolysis product distributions were monitored using models in principal components analysis (PCA) technique. The results showed that the zeolites, proprietary commercial catalysts, copper chromite and biomass-derived ash were selective to the reduction of most oxygenated lignin derivatives. The use of ZSM-5, Criterion-534 and Al-MSU-F catalysts enhanced the formation of aromatic hydrocarbons and phenols. No single catalyst was found to selectively reduce all carbonyl products. Instead, most of the carbonyl compounds containing hydroxyl group were reduced by zeolite and related materials, proprietary catalysts and copper chromite. The PCA model for carboxylic acids showed that zeolite ZSM-5 and Al-MSU-F tend to produce significant amounts of acetic and formic acids.

Combining data driven programming with component based software development:with applications in geovisualisation and dynamic data driven application systems

Software development methodologies are becoming increasingly abstract, progressing from low level assembly and implementation languages such as C and Ada, to component based approaches that can be used to assemble applications using technologies such as JavaBeans and the .NET framework. Meanwhile, model driven approaches emphasise the role of higher level models and notations, and embody a process of automatically deriving lower level representations and concrete software implementations. The relationship between data and software is also evolving. Modern data formats are becoming increasingly standardised, open and empowered in order to support a growing need to share data in both academia and industry. Many contemporary data formats, most notably those based on XML, are self-describing, able to specify valid data structure and content, and can also describe data manipulations and transformations. Furthermore, while applications of the past have made extensive use of data, the runtime behaviour of future applications may be driven by data, as demonstrated by the field of dynamic data driven application systems. The combination of empowered data formats and high level software development methodologies forms the basis of modern game development technologies, which drive software capabilities and runtime behaviour using empowered data formats describing game content. While low level libraries provide optimised runtime execution, content data is used to drive a wide variety of interactive and immersive experiences. This thesis describes the Fluid project, which combines component based software development and game development technologies in order to define novel component technologies for the description of data driven component based applications. The thesis makes explicit contributions to the fields of component based software development and visualisation of spatiotemporal scenes, and also describes potential implications for game development technologies. The thesis also proposes a number of developments in dynamic data driven application systems in order to further empower the role of data in this field.

A Generic model for the design and analysis of production systems

This dissertation studies the process of operations systems design within the context of the manufacturing organization. Using the DRAMA (Design Routine for Adopting Modular Assembly) model as developed by a team from the IDOM Research Unit at Aston University as a starting point, the research employed empirically based fieldwork and a survey to investigate the process of production systems design and implementation within four UK manufacturing industries: electronics assembly, electrical engineering, mechanical engineering and carpet manufacturing. The intention was to validate the basic DRAMA model as a framework for research enquiry within the electronics industry, where the initial IDOM work was conducted, and then to test its generic applicability, further developing the model where appropriate, within the other industries selected. The thesis contains a review of production systems design theory and practice prior to presenting thirteen industrial case studies of production systems design from the four industry sectors. The results and analysis of the postal survey into production systems design are then presented. The strategic decisions of manufacturing and their relationship to production systems design, and the detailed process of production systems design and operation are then discussed. These analyses are used to develop the generic model of production systems design entitled DRAMA II (Decision Rules for Analysing Manufacturing Activities). The model contains three main constituent parts: the basic DRAMA model, the extended DRAMA II model showing the imperatives and relationships within the design process, and a benchmark generic approach for the design and analysis of each component in the design process. DRAMA II is primarily intended for use by researchers as an analytical framework of enquiry, but is also seen as having application for manufacturing practitioners.

Interaction of quinolone antibiotics with the human intestinal CACO-2 cell model

The transport of a group of quinolone antibiotics across the human intestinal model, Caco-2 cells, was investigated. It was found that the transport of the quinolones generally correlated with the lipophilicity of the compounds, indicating the passive diffusional transcellular processes were involved. However, it was observed that the transport in both directions apical-to-basolateral and basolateral-to-apical was not equivalent, and polarised transport occurred. For all the quinolones studied except, BMS-284756-01, it was found that the basolateral-to-apical transport was significantly greater than the apical-to-basolateral transport. This finding suggested that the quinolones underwent a process of active secretion. The pKas and logPs for the quinolones were determined using potentiometric titrations. The measured logP values were compared with those determined using theoretical methods. The theoretical methods for calculating logP including the Moriguchi method correlated poorly with the measured logP values. Further investigations revealed that there may be an active transporter involved in the apical-to-basolateral transport of quinolones as well. This mechanism was sensitive to competing quinolones, but, it was unaffected by the metabolic inhibitor combination of sodium azide (15mM) with 2-deoxy-D-glucose (50mM). The basolateral-to-apical transport of quinolones was found to be sensitive to inhibition by a number of different inhibitors. The metabolic inhibitors, sodium azide (15mM) with 2-deoxy-D-glucose (50mM) and 2,4-dinitrophenol (1mM), were able to reduce the basolateral-to-apical transport of quinolones. A reduction in temperature from 37°C to 2°C caused an 80-fold decrease in the transport of gatifloxacin in both directions, however, this effect was not sufficient to abolish the greater basolateral-to-apical secretion. As with apical-to-basolateral transport, it was found that quinolones competed with gatifloxacin for basolateral-to-apical transport, both ofloxacin (100μM) and norfloxacin (100μM) significantly (P<0.003) decreased the basolateral-to-apical transport of gatifloxacin; however, ciprofloxacin (100μM and 300μM) had no effect. A number of inhibitors of various transport systems were also investigated. It was found that the anion transport inhibitor, probenecid (100 μM) had a significant inhibitory effect on the basolateral-to-apical transport of ciprofloxacin (P=0.039), while the cation transport inhibitor cimetidine (100μM and 500μM) had no effect. The organic anion exchange inhibitor 4,4'diisothiocyanostilbene-2-2' -disulphonic acid DIDS (400μM) also had a significant inhibitory effect (P=O.O 13). The PgP inhibitor and anion exchange inhibitor verapamil (400Mμ) was able to completely abolish the basolateral-to-apical secretion of gatifloxacin and bring it into line with the apical-to-basolateral flux. In conclusion, the apical-to-basolateral and basolateral-toapical transport of quinolones involved an active component. The basolateral-to-apical secretion was abolished by a verapamil (400μM), a bisubstrate for PgP and the anion transporter.