Two Bayesian treatments of the n-tuple recognition method

Two probabilistic interpretations of the n-tuple recognition method are put forward in order to allow this technique to be analysed with the same Bayesian methods used in connection with other neural network models. Elementary demonstrations are then given of the use of maximum likelihood and maximum entropy methods for tuning the model parameters and assisting their interpretation. One of the models can be used to illustrate the significance of overlapping n-tuple samples with respect to correlations in the patterns.

Mixtures of probabilistic principal component analysers

Principal component analysis (PCA) is one of the most popular techniques for processing, compressing and visualising data, although its effectiveness is limited by its global linearity. While nonlinear variants of PCA have been proposed, an alternative paradigm is to capture data complexity by a combination of local linear PCA projections. However, conventional PCA does not correspond to a probability density, and so there is no unique way to combine PCA models. Previous attempts to formulate mixture models for PCA have therefore to some extent been ad hoc. In this paper, PCA is formulated within a maximum-likelihood framework, based on a specific form of Gaussian latent variable model. This leads to a well-defined mixture model for probabilistic principal component analysers, whose parameters can be determined using an EM algorithm. We discuss the advantages of this model in the context of clustering, density modelling and local dimensionality reduction, and we demonstrate its application to image compression and handwritten digit recognition.

Probabilistic principal component analysis

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a ubiquitous technique for data analysis and processing, but one which is not based upon a probability model. In this paper we demonstrate how the principal axes of a set of observed data vectors may be determined through maximum-likelihood estimation of parameters in a latent variable model closely related to factor analysis. We consider the properties of the associated likelihood function, giving an EM algorithm for estimating the principal subspace iteratively, and discuss the advantages conveyed by the definition of a probability density function for PCA.

Probabilistic principal component analysis

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a ubiquitous technique for data analysis and processing, but one which is not based upon a probability model. In this paper we demonstrate how the principal axes of a set of observed data vectors may be determined through maximum-likelihood estimation of parameters in a latent variable model closely related to factor analysis. We consider the properties of the associated likelihood function, giving an EM algorithm for estimating the principal subspace iteratively, and discuss the advantages conveyed by the definition of a probability density function for PCA.

A generative probabilistic oriented wavelet model for texture segmentation

This Letter addresses image segmentation via a generative model approach. A Bayesian network (BNT) in the space of dyadic wavelet transform coefficients is introduced to model texture images. The model is similar to a Hidden Markov model (HMM), but with non-stationary transitive conditional probability distributions. It is composed of discrete hidden variables and observable Gaussian outputs for wavelet coefficients. In particular, the Gabor wavelet transform is considered. The introduced model is compared with the simplest joint Gaussian probabilistic model for Gabor wavelet coefficients for several textures from the Brodatz album [1]. The comparison is based on cross-validation and includes probabilistic model ensembles instead of single models. In addition, the robustness of the models to cope with additive Gaussian noise is investigated. We further study the feasibility of the introduced generative model for image segmentation in the novelty detection framework [2]. Two examples are considered: (i) sea surface pollution detection from intensity images and (ii) image segmentation of the still images with varying illumination across the scene.

The role of local luminance amplitude in the interpretation of shape-from-shading in textured surfaces

Luminance changes within a scene are ambiguous; they can indicate reflectance changes, shadows, or shading due to surface undulations. How does vision distinguish between these possibilities? When a surface painted with an albedo texture is shaded, the change in local mean luminance (LM) is accompanied by a similar modulation of the local luminance amplitude (AM) of the texture. This relationship does not necessarily hold for reflectance changes or for shading of a relief texture. Here we concentrate on the role of AM in shape-from-shading. Observers were presented with a noise texture onto which sinusoidal LM and AM signals were superimposed, and were asked to indicate which of two marked locations was closer to them. Shape-from-shading was enhanced when LM and AM co-varied (in-phase), and was disrupted when they were out-of-phase. The perceptual differences between cue types (in-phase vs out-of-phase) were enhanced when the two cues were present at different orientations within a single image. Similar results were found with a haptic matching task. We conclude that vision can use AM to disambiguate luminance changes. LM and AM have a positive relationship for rendered, undulating, albedo textures, and we assess the degree to which this relationship holds in natural images. [Supported by EPSRC grants to AJS and MAG].

Local luminance amplitude modulates the interpretation of shape-from-shading in textured surfaces

The pattern of illumination on an undulating surface can be used to infer its 3-D form (shape-from-shading). But the recovery of shape would be invalid if the luminance changes actually arose from changes in reflectance. So how does vision distinguish variation in illumination from variation in reflectance to avoid illusory depth? When a corrugated surface is painted with an albedo texture, the variation in local mean luminance (LM) due to shading is accompanied by a similar modulation in local luminance amplitude (AM). This is not so for reflectance variation, nor for roughly textured surfaces. We used depth mapping and paired comparison methods to show that modulations of local luminance amplitude play a role in the interpretation of shape-from-shading. The shape-from-shading percept was enhanced when LM and AM co-varied (in-phase) and was disrupted when they were out of phase or (to a lesser degree) when AM was absent. The perceptual differences between cue types (in-phase vs out-of-phase) were enhanced when the two cues were present at different orientations within a single image. Our results suggest that when LM and AM co-vary (in-phase) this indicates that the source of variation is illumination (caused by undulations of the surface), rather than surface reflectance. Hence, the congruence of LM and AM is a cue that supports a shape-from-shading interpretation. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic uncertainty in an interoperable framework

This thesis provides an interoperable language for quantifying uncertainty using probability theory. A general introduction to interoperability and uncertainty is given, with particular emphasis on the geospatial domain. Existing interoperable standards used within the geospatial sciences are reviewed, including Geography Markup Language (GML), Observations and Measurements (O&M) and the Web Processing Service (WPS) specifications. The importance of uncertainty in geospatial data is identified and probability theory is examined as a mechanism for quantifying these uncertainties. The Uncertainty Markup Language (UncertML) is presented as a solution to the lack of an interoperable standard for quantifying uncertainty. UncertML is capable of describing uncertainty using statistics, probability distributions or a series of realisations. The capabilities of UncertML are demonstrated through a series of XML examples. This thesis then provides a series of example use cases where UncertML is integrated with existing standards in a variety of applications. The Sensor Observation Service - a service for querying and retrieving sensor-observed data - is extended to provide a standardised method for quantifying the inherent uncertainties in sensor observations. The INTAMAP project demonstrates how UncertML can be used to aid uncertainty propagation using a WPS by allowing UncertML as input and output data. The flexibility of UncertML is demonstrated with an extension to the GML geometry schemas to allow positional uncertainty to be quantified. Further applications and developments of UncertML are discussed.

A Bayesian state space modelling approach to probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting

The generation of very short range forecasts of precipitation in the 0-6 h time window is traditionally referred to as nowcasting. Most existing nowcasting systems essentially extrapolate radar observations in some manner, however, very few systems account for the uncertainties involved. Thus deterministic forecast are produced, which have a limited use when decisions must be made, since they have no measure of confidence or spread of the forecast. This paper develops a Bayesian state space modelling framework for quantitative precipitation nowcasting which is probabilistic from conception. The model treats the observations (radar) as noisy realisations of the underlying true precipitation process, recognising that this process can never be completely known, and thus must be represented probabilistically. In the model presented here the dynamics of the precipitation are dominated by advection, so this is a probabilistic extrapolation forecast. The model is designed in such a way as to minimise the computational burden, while maintaining a full, joint representation of the probability density function of the precipitation process. The update and evolution equations avoid the need to sample, thus only one model needs be run as opposed to the more traditional ensemble route. It is shown that the model works well on both simulated and real data, but that further work is required before the model can be used operationally. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic methods for drug discovery

This thesis introduces a flexible visual data exploration framework which combines advanced projection algorithms from the machine learning domain with visual representation techniques developed in the information visualisation domain to help a user to explore and understand effectively large multi-dimensional datasets. The advantage of such a framework to other techniques currently available to the domain experts is that the user is directly involved in the data mining process and advanced machine learning algorithms are employed for better projection. A hierarchical visualisation model guided by a domain expert allows them to obtain an informed segmentation of the input space. Two other components of this thesis exploit properties of these principled probabilistic projection algorithms to develop a guided mixture of local experts algorithm which provides robust prediction and a model to estimate feature saliency simultaneously with the training of a projection algorithm.Local models are useful since a single global model cannot capture the full variability of a heterogeneous data space such as the chemical space. Probabilistic hierarchical visualisation techniques provide an effective soft segmentation of an input space by a visualisation hierarchy whose leaf nodes represent different regions of the input space. We use this soft segmentation to develop a guided mixture of local experts (GME) algorithm which is appropriate for the heterogeneous datasets found in chemoinformatics problems. Moreover, in this approach the domain experts are more involved in the model development process which is suitable for an intuition and domain knowledge driven task such as drug discovery. We also derive a generative topographic mapping (GTM) based data visualisation approach which estimates feature saliency simultaneously with the training of a visualisation model.

The contract management responsibility system in China : an institutional interpretation

Thesis is about the enterprise reform in China in general, and the Contract Management Responsibility System (the CMRS) in particular. The latter is a new institutional arrangement to deal with the relation between the government and the state-owned enterprise which has always been at the centre of the enterprise reform. The focus of the research is on the process of institutionalization in order to study the problems of the emergence of a free enterprise system in China. The research is conducted by four in-depth case studies to reveal how the CMRS is running and what interaction is taking place between the government and the state-owned enterprise under the system. Drawing on the empirical work, the thesis analyzes the features of the CMRS and the characteristics of its implementation process with respect to the structural-institutional paradigm, and the property rights approach. The research shows that to establish a market-type relation between the government and the enterprise is a complicated and dynamic process. It involves the understanding of the two different economic mechanisms, market and planning, and the interations taken by two parties. It concludes that the CMRS is an unstable system, either going back to the previous system or moving towards a market system, because its dynamic and control dimension are dysfunctional.