Energy forward price prediction with a hybrid adaptive model

This paper presents a forecasting technique for forward electricity/gas prices, one day ahead. This technique combines a Kalman filter (KF) and a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroschedasticity (GARCH) model (often used in financial forecasting). The GARCH model is used to compute next value of a time series. The KF updates parameters of the GARCH model when the new observation is available. This technique is applied to real data from the UK energy markets to evaluate its performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using this hybrid model. The methodology can be also applied to forecasting market clearing prices and electricity/gas loads.

Estimating the value of victory:English football

Professional English football combines publicly traded ownership shares with an active and observable wagering market. This article utilizes the information from these markets, presenting a model that may be used to estimate the impact of matches on club values. Such information is potentially useful as clubs assess the values of players and coaches based on their anticipated contributions to team performance. The article also illustrates the modelling of ‘binomial events,’ such as win/lose, hire/do not hire or approval/disapproval, and how market-determined price responses illuminate expectations.

Consumer price knowledge in the market for apparel

Purpose – The aim of this study is to analyze consumers' price knowledge in the market for apparels. Design/methodology/approach – After reviewing earlier attempts at assessing the construct, the price estimation error “PEE” was used, a measure based on explicit price knowledge stored in long-term memory, as a valid indicator of price knowledge. Findings – The results, including data from about 1,527 consumers on 66 products from the German apparel market, indicate that price knowledge is relatively low. Originality/value – Although, in the literature, there are several studies on price knowledge in the food industry, little is known about price knowledge in other industry sectors. This is quite surprising since pricing strategy is a concept which is vitally important to all retailers. Therefore, this study is a first contribution to extending the concept of behavioral pricing to the apparel market.

Accommodating energy price volatility in life cycle cost analysis of asphalt pavements

Energy price is related to more than half of the total life cycle cost of asphalt pavements. Furthermore, the fluctuation related to price of energy has been much higher than the general inflation and interest rate. This makes the energy price inflation an important variable that should be addressed when performing life cycle cost (LCC) studies re- garding asphalt pavements. The present value of future costs is highly sensitive to the selected discount rate. Therefore, the choice of the discount rate is the most critical element in LCC analysis during the life time of a project. The objective of the paper is to present a discount rate for asphalt pavement projects as a function of interest rate, general inflation and energy price inflation. The discount rate is defined based on the portion of the energy related costs during the life time of the pavement. Consequently, it can reflect the financial risks related to the energy price in asphalt pavement projects. It is suggested that a discount rate sensitivity analysis for asphalt pavements in Sweden should range between –20 and 30%.

The effect of universal futures on opening and closing stock market price discovery

Purpose – On 29 January 2001, Euronext LIFFE introduced single security futures contracts on a range of global companies. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact that the introduction of these futures contracts had on the behaviour of opening and closing UK equity returns. Design/methodology/approach – The paper models the price discovery process using the Amihud and Mendelson partial adjustment model which can be estimated using a Kalman filter. Findings – Empirical results show that during the pre-futures period both opening and closing returns under-react to new information. After the introduction of futures contracts opening returns over-react. A rise in the partial adjustment coefficient also takes place for closing returns but this is not large enough to cause over-reaction. Originality/value – This is the first study to examine the impact of a single security futures contract on the speed of spot market price discovery.

Understanding high-value manufacturing in Scottish SMEs

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the use of high-value manufacturing (HVM) concepts in Scottish SMEs and define how they are being used to gain competitive advantage. Design/methodology/approach: Cross-sectional research carried out using a large-scale survey of 435 SMEs and semi-structured interviews of a subset of 50 SMEs. Findings: Findings indicate that HVM is not a homogeneous state but an umbrella term for a number of operational models adopted by manufacturers that are progressively moving from simple price-based production; companies must, as a foundation, be operationally excellent in all lifecycle phases before extending their capability by offering a more comprehensive service; HVM is not a static state but a journey that differs in nature for each manufacturer depending on the nature of its market and customer. Research limitations/implications: The approach to theory must be more integrated combining aspects of marketing, strategic and operational theory. Research must be carried out using the supply chain, rather than the firm, as the unit of analysis. Practical implications: Manufacturing efficiency has now become an order qualifier and competitive advantage should now be sought through the integration of design, production and service activities from strategic levels down to operational levels across all the functions of a business which link seamlessly to customer and supplier activities. Originality/value: This paper contains insights into Scottish SMEs and their practice of HVM; defines the activity that makes up HVM at an operational as opposed to an economic or strategic level; proposes a model that characterises the stages of HVM that SMEs transition through. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

The role of pre-existing liquidity in determining price efficiency and liquidity gains following the introduction of SETSmm

In this paper we examine the impact that the new trading system SETSmm had on market quality measures such as firm value, liquidity and pricing efficiency. This system was introduced for mid-cap securities on the London Stock Exchange in 2003. We show that there is a small SETSmm return premium associated with the announcement that securities are to migrate to the new trading system. We find that migration to SETSmm also improves liquidity and pricing efficiency and these changes are related to the return premium. We also find that these gains are stronger for firms with high pre SETSmm liquidity and weaker for firms with low SETSmm liquidity. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing the value relevance of accounting data after the introduction of IFRS in Europe

Since 2005, European-listed companies have been required to prepare their consolidated financial statements in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). We examine whether value relevance increased following the introduction of IFRS, using a sample of 3,721 companies listed on five European stock exchanges: Frankfurt, Madrid, Paris, London, and Milan. We find mixed evidence of an increase in value relevance. However, the influence of earnings on share price increased following the introduction of IFRS in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, while the influence of book value of equity decreased (except for the United Kingdom). © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.