Designing a safety management support system using open architecture databases: the requirements of information representation in the support of managers' risk-related decision-making

This research was conducted at the Space Research and Technology Centre o the European Space Agency at Noordvijk in the Netherlands. ESA is an international organisation that brings together a range of scientists, engineers and managers from 14 European member states. The motivation for the work was to enable decision-makers, in a culturally and technologically diverse organisation, to share information for the purpose of making decisions that are well informed about the risk-related aspects of the situations they seek to address. The research examined the use of decision support system DSS) technology to facilitate decision-making of this type. This involved identifying the technology available and its application to risk management. Decision-making is a complex activity that does not lend itself to exact measurement or precise understanding at a detailed level. In view of this, a prototype DSS was developed through which to understand the practical issues to be accommodated and to evaluate alternative approaches to supporting decision-making of this type. The problem of measuring the effect upon the quality of decisions has been approached through expert evaluation of the software developed. The practical orientation of this work was informed by a review of the relevant literature in decision-making, risk management, decision support and information technology. Communication and information technology unite the major the,es of this work. This allows correlation of the interests of the research with European public policy. The principles of communication were also considered in the topic of information visualisation - this emerging technology exploits flexible modes of human computer interaction (HCI) to improve the cognition of complex data. Risk management is itself an area characterised by complexity and risk visualisation is advocated for application in this field of endeavour. The thesis provides recommendations for future work in the fields of decision=making, DSS technology and risk management.

The use of expert manpower in health and safety in France

The thesis examines the system of occupational health and safety in France. It analyses the use of expert manpower in the field with a view to establishing the possibility of a profession in health and safety. An input-output model is developed to bring together the necessary elements of prevention of accidents and occupational diseases. The role of institutions concerned with health and safety is analysed with reference to this model. The research establishes the need for a health and safety specialist role. The recognition and status of this role are found to be subject to other criteria including the acceptance by institutions of such a specialist role. The model is also used to define the role of this specialist as expected by the various institutions intervening in the field.

Full-field feed-forward equalizer with adaptive system optimization

We numerically investigate the combination of full-field detection and feed-forward equalizer (FFE) for adaptive chromatic dispersion compensation up to 2160 km in a 10 Gbit/s on-off keyed optical transmission system. The technique, with respect to earlier reports, incorporates several important implementation modules, including the algorithm for adaptive equalization of the gain imbalance between the two receiver chains, compensation of phase misalignment of the asymmetric Mach-Zehnder interferometer, and simplified implementation of field calculation. We also show that in addition to enabling fast adaptation and simplification of field calculation, full-field FFE exhibits enhanced tolerance to the sampling phase misalignment and reduced sampling rate when compared to the full-field implementation using a dispersive transmission line.

Psychological cue use and implications for a clinical decision support system

Effective clinical decision making depends upon identifying possible outcomes for a patient, selecting relevant cues, and processing the cues to arrive at accurate judgements of each outcome's probability of occurrence. These activities can be considered as classification tasks. This paper describes a new model of psychological classification that explains how people use cues to determine class or outcome likelihoods. It proposes that clinicians respond to conditional probabilities of outcomes given cues and that these probabilities compete with each other for influence on classification. The model explains why people appear to respond to base rates inappropriately, thereby overestimating the occurrence of rare categories, and a clinical example is provided for predicting suicide risk. The model makes an effective representation for expert clinical judgements and its psychological validity enables it to generate explanations in a form that is comprehensible to clinicians. It is a strong candidate for incorporation within a decision support system for mental-health risk assessment, where it can link with statistical and pattern recognition tools applied to a database of patients. The symbiotic combination of empirical evidence and clinical expertise can provide an important web-based resource for risk assessment, including multi-disciplinary education and training. © 2002 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved.

Full-field feed-forward equalizer with adaptive system optimization

We numerically investigate the combination of full-field detection and feed-forward equalizer (FFE) for adaptive chromatic dispersion compensation up to 2160 km in a 10 Gbit/s on-off keyed optical transmission system. The technique, with respect to earlier reports, incorporates several important implementation modules, including the algorithm for adaptive equalization of the gain imbalance between the two receiver chains, compensation of phase misalignment of the asymmetric Mach-Zehnder interferometer, and simplified implementation of field calculation. We also show that in addition to enabling fast adaptation and simplification of field calculation, full-field FFE exhibits enhanced tolerance to the sampling phase misalignment and reduced sampling rate when compared to the full-field implementation using a dispersive transmission line.

Modulating membership grades to gain consensus for fuzzy set uncertainty values in a clinical decision support system

This paper deals with a very important issue in any knowledge engineering discipline: the accurate representation and modelling of real life data and its processing by human experts. The work is applied to the GRiST Mental Health Risk Screening Tool for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems. The complexity of risk data and the wide variations in clinicians' expert opinions make it difficult to elicit representations of uncertainty that are an accurate and meaningful consensus. It requires integrating each expert's estimation of a continuous distribution of uncertainty across a range of values. This paper describes an algorithm that generates a consensual distribution at the same time as measuring the consistency of inputs. Hence it provides a measure of the confidence in the particular data item's risk contribution at the input stage and can help give an indication of the quality of subsequent risk predictions. © 2010 IEEE.

Collaborative filtering and deep learning based recommendation system for cold start items

Recommender system is a specific type of intelligent systems, which exploits historical user ratings on items and/or auxiliary information to make recommendations on items to the users. It plays a critical role in a wide range of online shopping, e-commercial services and social networking applications. Collaborative filtering (CF) is the most popular approaches used for recommender systems, but it suffers from complete cold start (CCS) problem where no rating record are available and incomplete cold start (ICS) problem where only a small number of rating records are available for some new items or users in the system. In this paper, we propose two recommendation models to solve the CCS and ICS problems for new items, which are based on a framework of tightly coupled CF approach and deep learning neural network. A specific deep neural network SADE is used to extract the content features of the items. The state of the art CF model, timeSVD++, which models and utilizes temporal dynamics of user preferences and item features, is modified to take the content features into prediction of ratings for cold start items. Extensive experiments on a large Netflix rating dataset of movies are performed, which show that our proposed recommendation models largely outperform the baseline models for rating prediction of cold start items. The two proposed recommendation models are also evaluated and compared on ICS items, and a flexible scheme of model retraining and switching is proposed to deal with the transition of items from cold start to non-cold start status. The experiment results on Netflix movie recommendation show the tight coupling of CF approach and deep learning neural network is feasible and very effective for cold start item recommendation. The design is general and can be applied to many other recommender systems for online shopping and social networking applications. The solution of cold start item problem can largely improve user experience and trust of recommender systems, and effectively promote cold start items.