Modelling the behaviour of engine assembly workers

Presents a prototype modelling methodology that provides a generic approach to the creation of quantitative models of the relationships between a working environment, the direct workers and their subsequent performance. Once created for an organisation, such models can provide a prediction of how the behaviour of their workers will alter in response to changes in their working environment. The goal of this work is to improve the decision processes used in the design of the working environment. Through improving such processes, companies will gain better performance from their direct workers, and so improve business competitiveness. This paper first presents the need to model the behaviour of direct workers in manufacturing environments. To begin to address this need, a simplistic modelling framework is developed, and then this is expanded to provide a detailed modelling methodology. There then follows a description of an industrial evaluation of this methodology at Ford Motor Company. This modelling methodology has been assessed in this case study and has been found to be valid in this case. There are many challenges that this theme of research needs to address. The work described in this paper has made an important first step in this area, having gone some way to establishing a generic methodology and illustrating its potential value. Our future work will build on this foundation.

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.

Modelling the human accommodation system using finite element analysis

The human accommodation system has been extensively examined for over a century, with a particular focus on trying to understand the mechanisms that lead to the loss of accommodative ability with age (Presbyopia). The accommodative process, along with the potential causes of presbyopia, are disputed; hindering efforts to develop methods of restoring accommodation in the presbyopic eye. One method that can be used to provide insight into this complex area is Finite Element Analysis (FEA). The effectiveness of FEA in modelling the accommodative process has been illustrated by a number of accommodative FEA models developed to date. However, there have been limitations to these previous models; principally due to the variation in data on the geometry of the accommodative components, combined with sparse measurements of their material properties. Despite advances in available data, continued oversimplification has occurred in the modelling of the crystalline lens structure and the zonular fibres that surround the lens. A new accommodation model was proposed by the author that aims to eliminate these limitations. A novel representation of the zonular structure was developed, combined with updated lens and capsule modelling methods. The model has been designed to be adaptable so that a range of different age accommodation systems can be modelled, allowing the age related changes that occur to be simulated. The new modelling methods were validated by comparing the changes induced within the model to available in vivo data, leading to the definition of three different age models. These were used in an extended sensitivity study on age related changes, where individual parameters were altered to investigate their effect on the accommodative process. The material properties were found to have the largest impact on the decline in accommodative ability, in particular compared to changes in ciliary body movement or zonular structure. Novel data on the importance of the capsule stiffness and thickness was also established. The new model detailed within this thesis provides further insight into the accommodation mechanism, as well as a foundation for future, more detailed investigations into accommodation, presbyopia and accommodative restoration techniques.

Modelling the E-business requirements of manufacturing organisations

This paper describes a model designed to recommend solutions to an organisation's e-business needs. It is designed to produce objective results based on perceived characteristics, unbiased by prejudice on the part of the person using the model. The model also includes a way of encapsulating the potential management concerns that may change for good or ill the likely relevance and probability of success of such solutions. The model has been tested on 13 case studies in small, medium and large organizations. © IFAC.

A finite element approach to modelling the hydrological regime in horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetlands for wastewater treatment

A Finite Element Analysis (FEA) model is used to explore the relationship between clogging and hydraulics that occurs in Horizontal Subsurface Flow Treatment Wetlands (HSSF TWs) in the United Kingdom (UK). Clogging is assumed to be caused by particle transport and an existing single collector efficiency model is implemented to describe this behaviour. The flow model was validated against HSSF TW survey results obtained from the literature. The model successfully simulated the influence of overland flow on hydrodynamics, and the interaction between vertical flow through the low permeability surface layer and the horizontal flow of the saturated water table. The clogging model described the development of clogging within the system but under-predicted the extent of clogging which occurred over 15 years. This is because important clogging mechanisms were not considered by the model, such as biomass growth and vegetation establishment. The model showed the usefulness of FEA for linking hydraulic and clogging phenomenon in HSSF TWs and could be extended to include treatment processes. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Modelling and benchmarking business processes: The supply-line example

Benchmarking techniques have evolved over the years since Xerox’s pioneering visits to Japan in the late 1970s. The focus of benchmarking has also shifted during this period. By tracing in detail the evolution of benchmarking in one specific area of business activity, supply and distribution management, as seen by the participants in that evolution, creates a picture of a movement from single function, cost-focused, competitive benchmarking, through cross-functional, cross-sectoral, value-oriented benchmarking to process benchmarking. As process efficiency and effectiveness become the primary foci of benchmarking activities, the measurement parameters used to benchmark performance converge with the factors used in business process modelling. The possibility is therefore emerging of modelling business processes and then feeding the models with actual data from benchmarking exercises. This would overcome the most common criticism of benchmarking, namely that it intrinsically lacks the ability to move beyond current best practice. In fact the combined power of modelling and benchmarking may prove to be the basic building block of informed business process re-engineering.

GTM: A principled alternative to the self-organizing map

The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm has been extensively studied and has been applied with considerable success to a wide variety of problems. However, the algorithm is derived from heuristic ideas and this leads to a number of significant limitations. In this paper, we consider the problem of modelling the probability density of data in a space of several dimensions in terms of a smaller number of latent, or hidden, variables. We introduce a novel form of latent variable model, which we call the GTM algorithm (for Generative Topographic Mapping), which allows general non-linear transformations from latent space to data space, and which is trained using the EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm. Our approach overcomes the limitations of the SOM, while introducing no significant disadvantages. We demonstrate the performance of the GTM algorithm on simulated data from flow diagnostics for a multi-phase oil pipeline.

The innovation value chain

Innovation events - the introduction of new products or processes - represent the end of a process of knowledge sourcing and transformation. They also represent the beginning of a process of exploitation which may result in an improvement in the performance of the innovating business. This recursive process of knowledge sourcing, transformation and exploitation we call the innovation value chain. Modelling the innovation value chain for a large group of manufacturing firms in Ireland and Northern Ireland highlights the drivers of innovation, productivity and firm growth. In terms of knowledge sourcing, we find strong complementarity between horizontal, forwards, backwards, public and internal knowledge sourcing activities. Each of these forms of knowledge sourcing also makes a positive contribution to innovation in both products and processes although public knowledge sources have only an indirect effect on innovation outputs. In the exploitation phase, innovation in both products and processes contribute positively to company growth, with product innovation having a short-term ‘disruption’ effect on labour productivity. Modelling the complete innovation value chain highlights the structure and complexity of the process of translating knowledge into business value and emphasises the role of skills, capital investment and firms’ other resources in the value creation process.