A probabilistic model for trust and reputation

This paper concerns the problem of agent trust in an electronic market place. We maintain that agent trust involves making decisions under uncertainty and therefore the phenomenon should be modelled probabilistically. We therefore propose a probabilistic framework that models agent interactions as a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The observations of the HMM are the interaction outcomes and the hidden state is the underlying probability of a good outcome. The task of deciding whether to interact with another agent reduces to probabilistic inference of the current state of that agent given all previous interaction outcomes. The model is extended to include a probabilistic reputation system which involves agents gathering opinions about other agents and fusing them with their own beliefs. Our system is fully probabilistic and hence delivers the following improvements with respect to previous work: (a) the model assumptions are faithfully translated into algorithms; our system is optimal under those assumptions, (b) It can account for agents whose behaviour is not static with time (c) it can estimate the rate with which an agent's behaviour changes. The system is shown to significantly outperform previous state-of-the-art methods in several numerical experiments. Copyright © 2010, International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (www.ifaamas.org). All rights reserved.

A common rule for integration and suppression of luminance contrast across eyes, space, time, and pattern

Visual perception begins by dissecting the retinal image into millions of small patches for local analyses by local receptive fields. However, image structures extend well beyond these receptive fields and so further processes must be involved in sewing the image fragments back together to derive representations of higher order (more global) structures. To investigate the integration process, we also need to understand the opposite process of suppression. To investigate both processes together, we measured triplets of dipper functions for targets and pedestals involving interdigitated stimulus pairs (A, B). Previous work has shown that summation and suppression operate over the full contrast range for the domains of ocularity and space. Here, we extend that work to include orientation and time domains. Temporal stimuli were 15-Hz counter-phase sine-wave gratings, where A and B were the positive and negative phases of the oscillation, respectively. For orientation, we used orthogonally oriented contrast patches (A, B) whose sum was an isotropic difference of Gaussians. Results from all four domains could be understood within a common framework in which summation operates separately within the numerator and denominator of a contrast gain control equation. This simple arrangement of summation and counter-suppression achieves integration of various stimulus attributes without distorting the underlying contrast code.

Surface- and deep-level dissimilarity effects on social integration and individual effectiveness related outcomes in work groups:a meta-analytic integration

Prior research linking demographic (e.g., age, ethnicity/race, gender, and tenure) and underlying psychological (e.g., personality, attitudes, and values) dissimilarity variables to individual group member's work-related outcomes produced mixed and contradictory results. To account for these findings, this study develops a contingency framework and tests it using meta-analytic and structural equation modelling techniques. In line with this framework, results showed different effects of surface-level (i.e., demographic) dissimilarity and deep-level (i.e., underlying psychological) dissimilarity on social integration, and ultimately on individual effectiveness related outcomes (i.e., turnover, task, and contextual performance). Specifically, surface-level dissimilarity had a negative effect on social integration under low but not under high team interdependence. In return, social integration fully mediated the negative relationship between surface-level dissimilarity and individual effectiveness related outcomes under low interdependence. In contrast, deep-level dissimilarity had a negative effect on social integration, which was stronger under high and weaker under low team interdependence. Contrary to our predictions, social integration did not mediate the negative relationship between deep-level dissimilarity and individual effectiveness related outcomes but suppressed positive direct effects of deep-level dissimilarity on individual effectiveness related outcomes. Possible explanations for these counterintuitive findings are discussed. © 2011 The British Psychological Society.

Material and efficient cause interpretations of the formative model:resolving misunderstandings and clarifying conceptual language

This paper presents a causal explanation of formative variables that unpacks and clarifies the generally accepted idea that formative indicators are ‘causes’ of the focal formative variable. In doing this, we explore the recent paper by Diamantopoulos and Temme (AMS Review, 3(3), 160-171, 2013) and show that the latter misunderstand the stance of Lee, Cadogan, and Chamberlain (AMS Review, 3(1), 3-17, 2013; see also Cadogan, Lee, and Chamberlain, AMS Review, 3(1), 38-49, 2013). By drawing on the multiple ways that one can interpret the idea of causality within the MIMIC model, we then demonstrate how the continued defense of the MIMIC model as a tool to validate formative indicators and to identify formative variables in structural models is misguided. We also present unambiguous recommendations on how formative variables can be modelled in lieu of the formative MIMIC model.

Latin Americans in London:language, integration and ethnic identity

This thesis studies the links between language, migration and integration in the context of the 'new migrant' group of Latin Americans in London. It reviews the many ways in which language impacts the integration processes of migrants by influencing people's access to jobs, services, social contacts and information. By focusing on migrants' experiences this research also investigates the ways in which language and identity articulate, as well as the affective variables that are at play in the acquisition of the local language. With a large sector trapped in a cycle of poor command of English and labour market disadvantage, many Latin Americans experience exclusion and poverty. In reaction to this, a sector of the community is campaigning for ethnic minority recognition. This work reviews the debates for recognition and the strategy of organising around ethnicity, paying special attention to the role language plays in the process. The study is based on over two and half years of qualitative research, which included interviews, surveys, and long-term participant observation within a community organisation and a recognition campaign. Its interdisciplinary perspective allows the recognition of both the intimate links between language and identity, as well as the social and structural forces that influence migrants' linguistic integration. It unveils the practical and symbolic value that the mother tongue has for Latin American migrants and provides a broader account of their experiences. This research calls attention to the need for a more comprehensive approach to the study of language and migration in order to acknowledge the affective and social factors involved in the linguistic practices of migrants. By studying the community's struggles for recognition, this work evidences both the importance of visibility for minority groups in London and the intrinsic methodological limitations of monitoring through ethnic categorisation.

Acoustic source characteristics, across-formant integration, and speech intelligibility under competitive conditions

An important aspect of speech perception is the ability to group or select formants using cues in the acoustic source characteristics-for example, fundamental frequency (F0) differences between formants promote their segregation. This study explored the role of more radical differences in source characteristics. Three-formant (F1+F2+F3) synthetic speech analogues were derived from natural sentences. In Experiment 1, F1+F3 were generated by passing a harmonic glottal source (F0 = 140 Hz) through second-order resonators (H1+H3); in Experiment 2, F1+F3 were tonal (sine-wave) analogues (T1+T3). F2 could take either form (H2 or T2). In some conditions, the target formants were presented alone, either monaurally or dichotically (left ear = F1+F3; right ear = F2). In others, they were accompanied by a competitor for F2 (F1+F2C+F3; F2), which listeners must reject to optimize recognition. Competitors (H2C or T2C) were created using the time-reversed frequency and amplitude contours of F2. Dichotic presentation of F2 and F2C ensured that the impact of the competitor arose primarily through informational masking. In the absence of F2C, the effect of a source mismatch between F1+F3 and F2 was relatively modest. When F2C was present, intelligibility was lowest when F2 was tonal and F2C was harmonic, irrespective of which type matched F1+F3. This finding suggests that source type and context, rather than similarity, govern the phonetic contribution of a formant. It is proposed that wideband harmonic analogues are more effective informational maskers than narrowband tonal analogues, and so become dominant in across-frequency integration of phonetic information when placed in competition.

A low mortality, high morbidity Reduced Intensity Status Epilepticus (RISE) model of epilepsy and epileptogenesis in the rat

Animal models of acquired epilepsies aim to provide researchers with tools for use in understanding the processes underlying the acquisition, development and establishment of the disorder. Typically, following a systemic or local insult, vulnerable brain regions undergo a process leading to the development, over time, of spontaneous recurrent seizures. Many such models make use of a period of intense seizure activity or status epilepticus, and this may be associated with high mortality and/or global damage to large areas of the brain. These undesirable elements have driven improvements in the design of chronic epilepsy models, for example the lithium-pilocarpine epileptogenesis model. Here, we present an optimised model of chronic epilepsy that reduces mortality to 1% whilst retaining features of high epileptogenicity and development of spontaneous seizures. Using local field potential recordings from hippocampus in vitro as a probe, we show that the model does not result in significant loss of neuronal network function in area CA3 and, instead, subtle alterations in network dynamics appear during a process of epileptogenesis, which eventually leads to a chronic seizure state. The model’s features of very low mortality and high morbidity in the absence of global neuronal damage offer the chance to explore the processes underlying epileptogenesis in detail, in a population of animals not defined by their resistance to seizures, whilst acknowledging and being driven by the 3Rs (Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of animal use in scientific procedures) principles.

Across-formant integration and speech intelligibility:effects of acoustic source properties in the presence and absence of a contralateral interferer

The role of source properties in across-formant integration was explored using three-formant (F1+F2+F3) analogues of natural sentences (targets). In experiment 1, F1+F3 were harmonic analogues (H1+H3) generated using a monotonous buzz source and second-order resonators; in experiment 2, F1+F3 were tonal analogues (T1+T3). F2 could take either form (H2 or T2). Target formants were always presented monaurally; the receiving ear was assigned randomly on each trial. In some conditions, only the target was present; in others, a competitor for F2 (F2C) was presented contralaterally. Buzz-excited or tonal competitors were created using the time-reversed frequency and amplitude contours of F2. Listeners must reject F2C to optimize keyword recognition. Whether or not a competitor was present, there was no effect of source mismatch between F1+F3 and F2. The impact of adding F2C was modest when it was tonal but large when it was harmonic, irrespective of whether F2C matched F1+F3. This pattern was maintained when harmonic and tonal counterparts were loudness-matched (experiment 3). Source type and competition, rather than acoustic similarity, governed the phonetic contribution of a formant. Contrary to earlier research using dichotic targets, requiring across-ear integration to optimize intelligibility, H2C was an equally effective informational masker for H2 as for T2.

Adaptation and gain pool summation:Alternative models and masking data

Foley [J. Opt. Soc. Am. A 11 (1994) 1710] has proposed an influential psychophysical model of masking in which mask components in a contrast gain pool are raised to an exponent before summation and divisive inhibition. We tested this summation rule in experiments in which contrast detection thresholds were measured for a vertical 1 c/deg (or 2 c/deg) sine-wave component in the presence of a 3 c/deg (or 6 c/deg) mask that had either a single component oriented at -45° or a pair of components oriented at ±45°. Contrary to the predictions of Foley's model 3, we found that for masks of moderate contrast and above, threshold elevation was predicted by linear summation of the mask components in the inhibitory stage of the contrast gain pool. We built this feature into two new models, referred to as the early adaptation model and the hybrid model. In the early adaptation model, contrast adaptation controls a threshold-like nonlinearity on the output of otherwise linear pathways that provide the excitatory and inhibitory inputs to a gain control stage. The hybrid model involves nonlinear and nonadaptable routes to excitatory and inhibitory stages as well as an adaptable linear route. With only six free parameters, both models provide excellent fits to the masking and adaptation data of Foley and Chen [Vision Res. 37 (1997) 2779] but unlike Foley and Chen's model, are able to do so with only one adaptation parameter. However, only the hybrid model is able to capture the features of Foley's (1994) pedestal plus orthogonal fixed mask data. We conclude that (1) linear summation of inhibitory components is a feature of contrast masking, and (2) that the main aftereffect of spatial adaptation on contrast increment thresholds can be assigned to a single site. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rules for mapping a conceptual model onto various data base management systems. Available in 2 volumes.

The design and implementation of data bases involve, firstly, the formulation of a conceptual data model by systematic analysis of the structure and information requirements of the organisation for which the system is being designed; secondly, the logical mapping of this conceptual model onto the data structure of the target data base management system (DBMS); and thirdly, the physical mapping of this structured model into storage structures of the target DBMS. The accuracy of both the logical and physical mapping determine the performance of the resulting systems. This thesis describes research which develops software tools to facilitate the implementation of data bases. A conceptual model describing the information structure of a hospital is derived using the Entity-Relationship (E-R) approach and this model forms the basis for mapping onto the logical model. Rules are derived for automatically mapping the conceptual model onto relational and CODASYL types of data structures. Further algorithms are developed for partly automating the implementation of these models onto INGRES, MIMER and VAX-11 DBMS.

Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.

Representing supply chain events on the Web of data

The Electronic Product Code Information Service (EPCIS) is an EPCglobal standard, that aims to bridge the gap between the physical world of RFID1 tagged artifacts, and information systems that enable their tracking and tracing via the Electronic Product Code (EPC). Central to the EPCIS data model are "events" that describe specific occurrences in the supply chain. EPCIS events, recorded and registered against EPC tagged artifacts, encapsulate the "what", "when", "where" and "why" of these artifacts as they flow through the supply chain. In this paper we propose an ontological model for representing EPCIS events on the Web of data. Our model provides a scalable approach for the representation, integration and sharing of EPCIS events as linked data via RESTful interfaces, thereby facilitating interoperability, collaboration and exchange of EPC related data across enterprises on a Web scale.

An illustration of variable precision rough sets model:an analysis of the findings of the UK Monopolies and Mergers Commission

This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of limited-dependent variable models. This paper illustrates that variable precision rough set theory (VPRS), allied with the use of a modern method of classification, or discretisation of data, can out-perform the more standard approaches that are employed in economics, such as a probit model. These approaches and certain inductive decision tree methods are compared (through a Monte Carlo simulation approach) in the analysis of the decisions reached by the UK Monopolies and Mergers Committee. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve on more traditional models, both in-sample, and particularly in out-of-sample prediction. A similar improvement in out-of-sample prediction over the decision tree methods is also shown.

Modelling and measurements on a condensing counter-flow heat exchanger

Experimental investigations and computer modelling studies have been made on the refrigerant-water counterflow condenser section of a small air to water heat pump. The main object of the investigation was a comparative study between the computer modelling predictions and the experimental observations for a range of operating conditions but other characteristics of a counterflow heat exchanger are also discussed. The counterflow condenser consisted of 15 metres of a thermally coupled pair of copper pipes, one containing the R12 working fluid and the other water flowing in the opposite direction. This condenser was mounted horizontally and folded into 0.5 metre straight sections. Thermocouples were inserted in both pipes at one metre intervals and transducers for pressure and flow measurement were also included. Data acquisition, storage and analysis was carried out by a micro-computer suitably interfaced with the transducers and thermocouples. Many sets of readings were taken under a variety of conditions, with air temperature ranging from 18 to 26 degrees Celsius, water inlet from 13.5 to 21.7 degrees, R12 inlet temperature from 61.2 to 81.7 degrees and water mass flow rate from 6.7 to 32.9 grammes per second. A Fortran computer model of the condenser (originally prepared by Carrington[1]) has been modified to match the information available from experimental work. This program uses iterative segmental integration over the desuperheating, mixed phase and subcooled regions for the R12 working fluid, the water always being in the liquid phase. Methods of estimating the inlet and exit fluid conditions from the available experimental data have been developed for application to the model. Temperature profiles and other parameters have been predicted and compared with experimental values for the condenser for a range of evaporator conditions and have shown that the model gives a satisfactory prediction of the physical behaviour of a simple counterflow heat exchanger in both single phase and two phase regions.