日中経済関係の今後－「対中ODA中止合意」を超えて

日中間では、外交関係が冷え切っていた時にも経済関係は好調を持続していた。実際、両国間貿易、日本の対中直接投資ともに急増し、かつその内容も高度化の様相を示している。当然さまざまな経済摩擦も発生しているが、問題は、摩擦が経済分野に留まらず2005年春の「反日騒動」に見られたように政治問題化したり、逆に政治問題が経済摩擦をもたらす土壌が両国関係に残っていることだろう。本稿ではまず、両国の経済が相互補完関係を深めている現状を確認し、次に経済摩擦の実態と背景を整理する。そして最後にこうした作業を踏まえて、今後の日中経済関係のあり方を探ってみたい。

Is South Sulawesi a Center of Growth in Eastern Indonesia? : Japanese ODA Strategy Revisited

Japanese ODA, especially that undertaken by JICA, has targeted South Sulawesi Province as a core area of development in eastern Indonesia, with hope that the economic growth of South Sulawesi will bring about spillover effects in other regions. This paper tests the validity of the strategy using a framework of Vector Autoregressive model. The results show that South Sulawesi’s economy Granger causes other regions in eastern Indonesia, but not vice versa, implying that South Sulawesi drives the development of other regions in eastern Indonesia. Further analysis shows that the development of the agricultural sector in South Sulawesi potentially has the highest spillover effects than other sectors and that the magnitude of spillover effect from South Sulawesi on eastern Indonesia is higher than other economically important regions, such as Eastern Java and Kalimantan.

違いを楽しむ：オリンピックと国際協力

オリンピックを見ていてふと我に返ることがあった。自分はなぜ日本人選手ばかり応援しているのだろうか、と。自分の中にはそれほど強い国粋主義が眠っているのだろうか。しかし、日本人を応援するのは私ばかりではないように思える。サッカーのワールドカップやオリンピックとなると日本の多くの人々が日本チームや日本人選手を応援する。それは日本人の関心や嗜好が内向きになっていることを示しているのだろうか。（以下略）

Myanmar and Japan: How Close Friends Become Estranged

Independent Myanmar and Japan had long held the strongest ties among Asian countries, and they were often known as having "special relations" or a "historically friendly relationship." Such relations were guaranteed by the sentiments and experiences of the leaders of both countries. Among others, Ne Win, former strongman throughout the socialist period (1962-1988), was educated and trained by the Japanese army officers of the Minami Kikan, leading to the birth of the Burma Independence Army (BIA). Huge official development assistance provided by the Japanese government also cemented this special relationship. However, the birth of the present military government (SLORC/SPDC) in 1988 drastically changed this favorable relationship between the two countries. When the military seized power in a coup, Japan was believed to be the only country that possessed sufficient meaningful influence on Myanmar to encourage a move toward national reconciliation between the junta and the opposition party led by Aung San Suu Kyi. In reality, Japan failed to exert such an influence due to its sour relations with the military government and reduced influence in the new international and regional political landscape. What is worse, Japan seems to be losing its say on Myanmar issues in the international political arena, as it has been wavering in limbo between the sanctionist forces, such as the United States and the European Union, and engagement forces, such as China and ASEAN.

Pakistani Migration to the United States:An Economic Perspective

The 9-11 attack on the US brought a set of changes in overseas migration from Pakistan. One such change is the sharp increase in remittances sent from the United States. The paper argues that the characteristics of remittances from the United States differ from those originating in the Middle East. Just as the overseas Pakistani communities are diversified, the nature and characteristics of remittances are heterogeneous, depending on where they come from and who sends them. While the importance of remittance flows from the United States is rising, not much academic attention has been paid to this issue because of a lack of data. To better understand the reasons behind the increase in US remittances, and in order to evaluate their sustainability, household surveys are necessary.

The determinants of rural electrification in Bihar, India

This paper explores intra-state disparity in access to electricity and examines the determinants of electrification at the village level in Bihar, one of the underdeveloped states in India. Our field survey of 80 villages in 5 districts conducted in 2008-09 found that 48 villages (60%) are electrified when using the definition of electrification that a village is electrified if any one household in the village is connected to electricity. The degrees of “electrification” in terms of the proportion of household connection and available hours of electricity remain by and large low, and at the same time differ across districts, villages and seasons. In the processes of electrification, approximately 40% of villages have been electrified in recent years. Based on the basic findings of the survey, this paper examines the electrification processes and how it has changed in recent years. The econometric analyses demonstrate that location is the most important determinant of a village’s electricity connection. Another important finding is that with the rapid progress of rural electrificationunder the recent government programme and the tendency to connect the villages which are easily accessible, the collective bargaining power of the village, which used to significantly affect the process of electrification, has lost influence. This adversely affects remote villages. In order to extend electricity supplies to remote and geographically disadvantaged villages, the government needs to consider seriously other options for sustainable electricity supply, such as decentralized distribution of electricity rather than the conventional connection through the national/local grids.

Progress and issues in rural electrification in Bihar, India : a preliminary analysis

Rural electrification has been an important part of government policy since India gained independence. However, despite the number of electrified villages expanding rapidly in recent years, there are many that still remain un-electrified. This paper addresses the issue of intra-state disparity in access to electricity and examines the determinants of electrification at the village level using data from a survey conducted in rural Bihar, one of the underdeveloped states in India. An econometric analysis demonstrates that small villages in remote locations tend to be considered a low priority in the process of electrification. Electrification at the village level in the more advanced states is no longer an issue, though the challenge of access to electrification at the household level remains. This paper also discusses issues that emerged from interviewing villagers and visiting rural areas, and shows that the actual progress of rural electrification may not be as advanced as government statistics indicate.

Caste, land, and migration : a preliminary analysis of a village survey in an underdeveloped state in India

This paper explores migration from Bihar, one of the most underdeveloped states in India, by paying particular attention to social class (caste) and landholdings. After describing details of individual migrants, we present our preliminary findings on the determinants of migration, based on our field survey of 200 households in four villages in 2011. In terms of social class, Muslims are more likely to migrate, but Scheduled Castes do not show a high propensity to migrate as is stated in some of the existing literature where the underclass is said to be more mobile. In terms of landholdings, the probability that someone will migrate is high among the landless and smaller landholders but it decreases as the size of the landholding increases. However, as the size of the landholding increases still further, a reverse effect of landholding on decisions regarding migration moves in, with the decline in probability becoming less and less. This result confirms a non-linear relationship between landholdings and the decision to migrate. Some further research questions are raised in the paper.

Toward an inclusive and a little bit ethical world trading system : listening to the voices of the people in LDCs

Many specialists in international trade have started saying that the era of a mega FTA is approaching. If the three poles of the global economy, namely East Asia, EU and the United States, form mega FTAs, most of the volume of global trade will be covered. That may be fine, but there will be many countries left out of the mega FTA, most of which will be the least developed countries (LDCs). Since the inception of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations in 2001, the WTO and its member countries have tried to include LDCs in the world trading system through various means, including DFQF and AfT. Although these means have some positive impact on the economic development of LDCs, most of the LDCs will never feel comfortable with the current world trading system. To overcome the stalemate in the DDA and to create an inclusive world trading system, we need more commitment from both LDCs and non-LDCs. To surmount the prolonged stalemate in the DDA, we should understand how ordinary people in LDCs feel and think about the current world trading system. Those voices have seldom been listened to, even by the decision makers of their own countries. So as to understand the situation of the people in LDCs, IDE-JETRO carried out several research projects using macro, meso and micro approaches. For the micro level, we collected and analyzed statements from ordinary people concerning their opinions about the world trading system. The interviewees are ordinary people such as street vendors, farmers and factory workers. We asked about where they buy and sell daily necessities, their perception of imported goods, export promotion and free trade at large, etc. These ‘voices of the people’ surveys were conducted in Madagascar and Cambodia during 2013. Based on this research, and especially the findings from the ‘voices of the people’ surveys, we propose a ‘DDA-MDGs hybrid’ strategy to conclude DDA negotiations and develop a more inclusive and a little bit more ethical world trading system. Our proposal may be summarized in the following three points. (1) Aid for Trade (AfT) ver. 2 Currently AfT is mainly focused on coordinating several aid projects related to LDCs’ capacity building. However, this is inadequate; for the proposed ‘DDA-MDGs hybrid’, a super AfT is needed. The WTO, other development agencies and LDC governments will not only coordinate but also plan together aid projects for trade capacity building. AfT ver. 2 includes infrastructure projects either gran aid, ODA loans and private investment. This is in accordance with the post-MDGs argument which emphasizes the role of the private sector. (2) Ethical Attitude Reciprocity is a principle of multilateral agreement, and it has been a core promise since GATT. However, for designing an inclusive system, special and differential treatment (S&D) is still needed for disadvantaged members. To compromise full reciprocity and less than full reciprocity, an ethical attitude on the part of every member is needed in which every member refrains from insisting on the full rights and demands of its own country. As used herein, the term ‘ethical’ implies more consideration for LDCs, and it is almost identical to S&D but with a more positive attitude from developed countries (super S&D). (3) Collect Voices of the People In order to grasp the real situation of the people, the voices of the people on free trade will continue to be collected in other LDCs, and the findings and leanings will be fed back to the WTO negotiation space.

Rural electrification revisited : the case of Bihar, India

This study describes the dynamic processes of electrification. Some electrified villages have experienced de-electrification, mainly due to technical issues. Some villages were re-electrified through various efforts. Our econometric exercise indicates that small villages in remote locations tend to not be prioritized in the electrification process. It also finds that the cumulative number of ever-electrified villages is higher among villages having a higher ratio of socially advanced classes. However, some of these experienced de-electrification, rendering ambiguous the impact of village social characteristics on electrification.

Sustainable development goals and Japan -- sustainability overshadows poverty reduction

The Development Cooperation Charter of Japan, which took over the ODA (Official Development Assistance) Charter in February 2015, drives Japan's cooperation towards non-poor countries and non-poverty issues. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) put Japan forward in these directions. As a result, in Japan the focus on global poverty reduction is overshadowed by its national interests and sustainability under the concept of universality, which was a core principle of the SDGs as differentiated from the Millennium Development Goals.