Public Support for Enlargement: Economic, Cultural, or Normative?

The current research questioned whether public opinion on enlargement can be adequately explained only by economic calculation and cultural/community identity. When the analytical viewpoint was expanded from the conventional individual level to state level, it was revealed that constructivist considerations-such as the democratization and reunification of Europe-play a critical role in pushing forward enlargement. Drawing on the perspective of international relations, this study introduced a synthetic model to analyze public opinion on enlargement in the EU's 15 old member states. The analysis using a Eurobarometer dataset showed that on public support for enlargement, constructivist attitudes held as much sway as cultural/community attitudes. In fact, expectations of democratization were the most important determinant of support for enlargement in the case of Turkey.

A Critical Review of Opinion Polls relating to Iranian Voting Intentions: Problems of Research Methodology as applied to Complex Societies

After the 10th Iranian Presidential election on June 12, 2009, several public opinion polls taken in Iran attracted the attention of policy-makers and journalists around the world because of the political crisis that followed. In this paper I first review critically the polls conducted by the WPO (WorldPublicOpinion.org), PIPA (Program on International Policy Attitudes) at the University of Maryland. I also review an essay by Steven Kull, which is based on the aforementioned poll results and which in my opinion leads to false conclusions concerning Iran’s political prospects. I also discuss “An Analysis of Multiple Polls of the Iranian Public,” published by WPO-PIPA on February 3 2010. The present paper arrives at the overall conclusion that it is impossible to obtain an accurate image of political opinions in societies as complicated as that of Iran by concentrating on only one technique of research and analysis, especially when the political and social situation in the society concerned is in a state of constant flux.

国際公共財としての感染症対策

HIV/AIDS、SARS、鳥インフルエンザといった新興感染症、薬剤耐性を持った病原体の出現によって問題が深刻化している結核、マラリア等再興感染症への関心が世界で高まっている。感染症の予防や治療はそれを個人に施すことのプラスの効果が国境を超えてスピル・オーバーすることが多く、国際公共財としての性質を持っている。また、新薬・ワクチンの成分・製法に関する情報および、感染症の流行に関する情報は典型的な公共財であり、誰しもがフリー・ライドするインセンティブを持っている。したがって、これら公共財の過少供給の問題を解決するためには国際的な協調行動が必要である。 　世界の感染症対策は、感染がより大規模に広まっている発展途上国を中心としたものにならざるを得ない。現在これをリードしているのはアメリカであり、日本はWHOへの出資については存在感を示しているものの、それ以外の機関への出資や二国間協力の面において、少なくとも今現在においては貢献度が大きいと見られていない。また、新薬・ワクチン開発については日本の財政的な面での貢献は全く目立たない。 　国際的な感染症対策に関する日本の印象を高めるためには、沖縄感染症イニシアティブの際になされたような形で金銭的貢献度を再び高める、あるいは、国際的に必要と考えられているものの他国が協力を決めていない分野への貢献をいち早く宣言する、等の対応が考えられる。

Impacts of an HIV counseling and testing initiative -- results from an experimental intervention in a large firm in South Africa

We have run experimental interventions to promote HIV tests in a large firm in South Africa. We combined HIV tests with existing medical check programs to increase the uptake. In the foregoing survey we undertook previously, it was suggested that fears and stigma of HIV/AIDS were the primary reasons given by the employees for not taking the test. To counter these, we implemented randomized interventions. We find substantial heterogeneity in responses by ethnicity. Africans and Colored rejected the tests most often. Supportive information increased the uptake by 6 to 16% points. A tradeoff in targeting resulting in stigmatizing the targeted and a reduction of exclusion error is discussed.