The LTTE Proposals for an Interim Self-Governing Authority and Future of the Peace Process in Sri Lanka

The political brinkmanship of the Liberation Tigers of the Tamil Eelam has been illustrated vividly by the way in which it brought forward its proposals for an Interim Self-Governing Authority by exploiting the vulnerabilities of the United National Front Government. In the proposals the LTTE articulated its political intentions in concrete constitutional terms for the first time. The Proposals rationalize the armed struggle and a contractual agreement outside the Constitution. The plenary powers of the ISGA exceed the federal formula; effectively exclude the institutions of the state of Sri Lanka from the North-East; and clear the route for a separate state. This situation demands a redirection of the peace process which requires a clear political vision and a proper strategy with alternative proposals on the part of the government. In the face of present impasse of the peace process the challenges before the new Freedom Alliance government are formidable.

ルワンダにおける二つの紛争－ジェノサイドはいかに可能となったのか

独立直前の「社会革命」と1990年代の内戦というルワンダにおける２つの紛争を比較し、後者が50万人以上の犠牲者を生んだジェノサイドへと至ったメカニズムを考察する。２つの紛争はいずれも国家権力闘争に発する内戦であり、それがエスニックな紛争へと転化した点で似ているが、犠牲者の数は圧倒的に異なる。ジェノサイドが可能になったのは、権力喪失の危機感を抱いた急進派が特定のエスニック集団の殺戮を正当化するイデオロギーを流布し、かつ地方行政機構をはじめとする国家機構を動員して民間人の殺戮を実践したからであった。こうした国家機構を通じた動員は、冷戦下に存立した国家のあり方に由来する。国際環境の変化がこうした国家を脆弱化させて紛争を引き起こす一方、従来の体制下で成立した動員システムを急進派が利用し、組織的な暴力が行使されたためにジェノサイドに至ったといえる。

「紛争ダイヤモンド」問題の力学－グローバル・イシュー化と議論の欠落－

ダイヤモンド原石の取引とアフリカの紛争をめぐる「紛争ダイヤモンド」問題は、近年国際社会が熱心に討議するグローバル・イシューとなった。この問題は2000年になって急速に顕在化し、年末には国連総会において全会一致で加盟国に取り組みを求める決議が採択された。国連の報告書やNGOの運動によって国際世論が盛り上がり、シエラレオネ問題の解決を進めたいイギリス政府、あるいは消費者運動を恐れる業界や生産国が取り組みに加わったことなどがその理由である。しかし、現在の「紛争ダイヤモンド」をめぐる議論では、ダイヤモンドとアフリカの紛争をめぐる問題が部分的にしか扱われていない。そこではアンゴラとシエラレオネにおける反政府勢力の活動を抑えることに主眼が置かれているが、コンゴのように状況が複雑な地域に対する取り組みは遅れている。さらに、ダイヤモンドを武器購入や民間軍事会社への支払いに充当するアフリカ各国政府の行動については、深刻な問題を内包するにもかかわらず、ほとんど議論されていない。「紛争ダイヤモンド」問題が、脆弱な国家における公的な資源の管理・開発という論点と繋がっていることを忘れるべきではない。

Conflict and land tenure in Rwanda

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the historical relation between conflict and land tenure in Rwanda, a country that experienced a harsh civil war and genocide in the mid-1990s. The victory of the Tutsi-led rebel, Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) at that time triggered a massive return of refugees and a drastic change in land tenure policy. These were refugees who had fled the country at around the time of independence, in 1962, due to the political turmoil and persecution (the "social revolution") and who shared the background of the core RPF members. The social revolution had dismantled the existent Tutsi-led political order, compelling many Tutsi families to seek refuge outside their homeland. Under the post-independence rule of a Hutu-led government, the Tutsi refugees were not allowed to return and the lands they left behind were often arbitrarily distributed by local authorities among Hutu peasants. After victory in the mid-1990s civil war, the newly established RPF-led government ordered the current inhabitants of the lands to divide the properties in order to allocate portions to the Tutsi returnees. Different patterns of land holding and land division will be explained in the paper from data gathered through the authors' fieldworks in the southern and eastern parts of Rwanda. Although overt resistance to land division has not been observed to date, the land rights of the Tutsi returnees must be considered unstable because their legitimacy depends primarily on the strength and political stability of the RPF-led government. If the authority of RPF were to weaken, the land rights will be jeopardized. Throughout Rwandan history, in which political exclusion has often led to serious conflict, macro-level politics have repeatedly influenced land holding. Promotion of an inclusive democracy, therefore, is indispensable to escape the vicious circle between political instability and land rights.

Gacaca and DDR : the disputable record of state-building in Rwanda

State-building is currently considered to be an indispensable process in overcoming state fragility: a condition characterized by frequent armed conflicts as well as chronic poverty. In this process, both the capacity and the legitimacy of the state are supposed to be enhanced; such balanced development of capacity and legitimacy has also been demanded in security sector reform (SSR), which is regarded as being a crucial part of post-conflict state-building. To enhance legitimacy, the importance of democratic governance is stressed in both state-building and SSR in post-conflict countries. In reality, however, the balanced enhancement of capacity and legitimacy has rarely been realized. In particular, legitimacy enhancement tends to stagnate in countries in which one of multiple warring parties takes a strong grip on state power. This paper tries to understand why such unbalanced development of state-building and SSR has been observed in post-conflict countries, through a case study of Rwanda. Analyses of two policy initiatives in the security sector - Gacaca transitional justice and disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) - indicate that although these programs achieved goals set by the government, their contribution to the normative objectives promoted by the international community was quite debatable. It can be understood that this is because the country has subordinated SSR to its state-building process. After the military victory of the former rebels, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), the ruling elite prioritized the establishment of political stability over the introduction of international norms such as democratic governance and the rule of law. SSR was implemented only to the extent that it contributed to, and did not threaten, Rwanda's RPF-led state-building.

From authoritarianism to upheaval : the political economy of the Syrian uprising and regime persistence

The ensuing bloodshed and deteriorating humanitarian crisis in Syria, the failure of the United Nations Security Council to reach a consensus on what action to take, and the involvement of contending external actors partially reflect the complexity of the current impasse. Despite the importance of regional and international factors, however, this papers attempts to argue that the domestic dynamics of the Syrian crisis have been vitally important in determining the course of the popular uprising and the regime’s response. In this, Syria’s crisis belongs with the Arab Spring the trajectories and prospects of which have been shaped by dynamics within regimes. It will be seen that the formal and informal institutional structure of the Ba‘thist regime in Syria has been critical to its resilience and ability to stay united so far while attempting to crush a peaceful popular uprising that turned into insurgency in the face of the regime’s violent crackdown.

Kenya after the 2007 "post-election violence" : constitutional reform and the National Accord and Reconciliation Act

Immediately after the announcement of the re-election of President Kibaki on the evening of 30 December 2007, Kenya was thrust into the worst civil unrest experienced by the country since independence – a development that became known as the "Post-Election Violence" (PEV). However, after a subsequent process of reconciliation, the PEV came to an end within a relatively short period. The present-day politics of Kenya are being conducted within the framework of a provisional Constitution that took shape through peaceful mediation. How did Kenya manage to put a lid on a period of turmoil that placed the country in unprecedented danger? This paper traces the sequence of events that led to mediation, explains the emergency measures that were needed to maintain law and order, and indicates the remaining problems that still need to be solved.

Food crop diversification as a risk mitigating strategy during conflict : evidence from Cote d'Ivoire

This study examines the significance of food crop diversification as a household risk mitigating strategy to achieve "self-sufficiency" to ensure food security during the civil conflict in Cote d’Ivoire. The main motivation for seeking self-sufficiency stems from the fact that during the period of heightened tension due to conflict, the north–south divide set by the UN peacekeeping line disrupted the agricultural supply chain from the food surplus zone, Savane in the north. While we theoretically predict a positive effect on crop diversification because of interrupted food supply chain, we also consider a negative effect due to the covariate shocks. We find robust and statistically significant empirical outcomes supporting such claims. The baseline outcomes withstand a series of robustness checks. The net effect of conflict on crop diversification is positive but not statistically significant. In addition, we find that increasing vulnerability to poverty and food insecurity during conflict seems to be the underlying factors that motivate farm households to adopt such coping strategies.

Malaria infection and fetal growth during the war : evidence from Liberia

This study investigates whether the Liberian civil war increased infant mortality by exposing pregnant women to a high risk of malaria infection, thus retarding fetal development. I find that the war-induced, one-percent increase in maternal infection risk resulted in a 0.44 percent increase in one-year mortality. This mortality effect gradually increased following childbirth as maternal passive immunity waned. The consequences were pronounced for infants conceived in rainy seasons by young mothers residing in rural, battle-intensive areas, with no gender difference detected. I also provide evidence suggesting the wartime culling of the weakest infants associated with maternal malaria infection.