開発戦略としてのPro-Poor Growth －貧困層への雇用創出－

本稿は、後発開発途上国においてpro-poor growthを達成する開発戦略を、産業政策との関連から研究したものである。アジアとアフリカの経済発展プロセスにおいて、貧困層にどの産業が雇用機会を提供するか、を研究した。その結果明らかになったのは、1970-90年代の典型的な東アジア高成長経済であるタイと台湾において、貧困層に最も大きな雇用機会を与えたのが農業部門であったのに対して、貧困層の雇用機会増に最も貢献したのが製造業部門であったということである。同様の傾向は、アフリカの輸出指向成長国であるモーリシャスについても観察された。一方、グローバリゼーションの活力が十分に生かされなかったマラウィ、南アフリカ、インドにおいては、製造業が同様の雇用機会を貧困層に提供できなかった。結論として導かれるのは、典型的な後発発展途上国においては、雇用に関して農業のシェアが製造業のシェアを上回るのが一般的であるものの、もし比較優位がグローバリゼーションの中で顕在化できるのであれば、貧困層の雇用機会増に関して、農業よりも製造業の貢献度が大きくなりうる、ということである。一国全体の経済発展という観点のみならず、貧困層に利益をもたらすpro-poor growthという文脈においても、製造業の果たす役割が無視し得ないことが明らかになった。

Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis

Easing of economic sanctions by Western countries in 2012 augmented the prospect that Myanmar will expand its exports. On the other hand, a sharp rise in natural resource exports during the sanctions brings in a concern about the "Dutch disease". This study projects Myanmar's export potential by calculating counterfactual export values with an augmented gravity model that takes into account the effects of natural resource exports on non-resource exports. Without taking into account the effects of natural resource exports, the counterfactual predicted values of non-resource exports during 2004–2011 are more than five times larger than the actual exports. If we take into account the effects, however, the predicted values are smaller than the actual exports. The empirical results imply that the "Dutch disease" is at stake in Myanmar than any other Southeast Asian countries.

湾岸およびインド洋地域の安全保障と日本

In this paper, first we look back at the activities of the JMSDF in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf for the past 10-20 years from the view-point of contributions to security in the regions, and Japan's defence and diplomatic policies. In addition we would like to consider the situation that Japan has currently been placed in, or the primary factors of the change of power balance caused by China's foreign expansion and US gradual troop reductions, and economic conditions and energy supply problems after the earthquake disaster, as well as the returning of the LDP Administration. Each of these affects Japan's defence and diplomatic policies, and Japanese approach to Gulf countries is to be precisely understood in this context. For Japan, the importance of relationships with Gulf countries will surely increase in the foreseeable future. However the immediate addition of the JMSDF's force in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf Region is difficult. So Japan's role in regional security will probably be depending on the licensing of technology to India and Gulf countries, plus the construction of collaborative systems devoted to the training and support of highly proficient personnel. China will have a competitive relationship with Japan over access to the energy supply sources and the markets in Gulf countries, and it will be necessary to employ such systems for the purpose of international trust building and preventing of any free-ride.

The Nature of the State in Afghanistan and Its Relations with Neighboring Countries

Since the formation of Afghanistan, its nature as a Pashtun state has affected all its international relations. On the other hand, the fact that it was originally established as a buffer state between Britain and Russia still governs its national integration. In this article I examine Afghanistan's relations with its neighbors through an investigation of its history and the present conditions of its borders with its southern, western and northern neighbors. My aim is to obtain an overall perspective of Afghanistan's relations with its neighbors, historically decisive elements, and the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks.

Foreign Direct Investment Relations between Myanmar and ASEAN

Myanmar highly appreciates foreign direct investment (FDI) as a key solution reducing the development gap with leading ASEAN countries. Accordingly, it is welcomed by the government. Myanmar's Foreign Investment Law was enacted in 1988 soon after the adoption of a market-oriented economic system to boost the flow of FDI into the country. Foreign investors positively responded to these measures in the early years and FDI inflow into Myanmar gradually increased during the period from 1989 to 1996. However, after 1997, FDI inflow was dramatically reduced and markedly declined until 2004. In 2005, FDI inflow increased at an unprecedented rate and reached the highest level in the country's history. However, this growth was not sustainable in the subsequent years, as it declined again and turned stagnant at the previous level. In terms of source regions, ASEAN is a major investor in Myanmar, which investment is significantly exceeds the combined investment of other regions of the world. Among top ten countries, Thailand's investment alone is significantly more than combined total investments of the other nine countries. Next to Thailand in terms of investments in Myanmar are Singapore and Malaysia among ASEAN, at second and third places, respectively. The combined total FDI inflows into the power and oil and gas sector represent about 65 percent of the total investment. There are many opportunities for foreign investment in other sectors, which are not, yet exploited. ASEAN countries will certainly be source countries of Myanmar FDI in the future, and Myanmar should expand to other Asian countries like Japan, India, China, Korea, and Hong Kong where its FDI portfolio is concerned. To effectively attract FDI into the country, Myanmar needs to minimize the effect of policy while opening and encouraging other potential sectors of FDI to foreign investors in ASEAN and Asian countries.

Revisiting labour and gender issues in Export Processing Zones : the cases of South Korea, Bangladesh and India

The establishment of Export Processing Zones (EPZs) is a strategy for economic development that was introduced almost fifty years ago and is nowadays employed in a large number of countries. While the number of EPZs including several variants such as Special Economic Zone (SEZs) has increased continuously, general interest in EPZs has declined over the years in contrast to earlier heated debates regarding the efficacy of the strategy and its welfare effects especially on women workers. This article re-evaluates the historical trajectories and outstanding labour and gender issues of EPZs on the basis of the experiences of South Korea, Bangladesh and India. The findings suggest the necessity of enlarging our analytical scope with regard to EPZs, which are inextricably connected with external employment structures, whether outside the EPZ but within the same country, or outside the EPZ and its host country altogether.