Political crisis and suspension of duty-free access in Madagascar : assessment of impacts on the garment industry

The export-oriented garment industry in Madagascar has displayed robust growth, thus both contributing to the economy and creating formal employment opportunities. However, it experienced a critical situation after the political turmoil that occurred in 2009. Our investigation using the trade data demonstrates that suspension of duty-free access to the US market (AGOA) resulting from the turmoil had a greater impact on exports, 64%–78% reduction, than the turmoil itself. Our original factory-level data demonstrates that AGOA suspension increased the probability of closure by 57.8% for the factories supplying exclusively to US market, and reduced 6405 jobs for low-skilled positions during the post turmoil period. The factory-level adverse impacts are much less than those on export value at the industry level because of the maintained duty-free access to EU, which has provided an alternative market. It suggests that if EU also had cancelled duty-free access, adverse impacts would have been enormous. Given the general pattern of comparative advantage in low-income countries, unplanned cancellation of duty-free access for them hurts labor-intensive industries and low-skilled workers.

Did the least developed countries benefit from duty-free quota-free access to the Japanese market?

Countries classified as least developed countries (LDCs) were granted duty-free quota-free (DFQF) access to the Japanese market. This study examines the impact of that access and finds that, in general, it did not benefit the LDCs. The construction of concordance tables for Japan's 9 digit tariff line codes enables analysis at the tariff line level, which overcomes a possible aggregation bias. The exogenous nature of DFQF access mitigates the endogeneity problem. Various estimation models, including the triple difference estimator, show that in general the LDCs did not benefit from DFQF access to the Japanese market. The total value of imports from LDCs has been increasing, but the imports granted both zero tariffs and substantial preference margins over non-LDC countries were not successful. These findings suggest that for LDCs the tariff barrier is a relatively small obstacle: Trade is affected more strongly by other factors, such as infrastructure, nontariff barriers, geographic distance, and cultural differences.

開発政策としての優遇アクセスの成果と課題 -- マダガスカルに対する経済制裁を例に

世界貿易機関（WTO）のドーハ開発ラウンドでは、後発開発途上国が無税無枠で他国に輸出できる措置を実施することが協議されているが、ラウンド自体が合意に至っていないため、各国はWTOの枠組みとは別に、二国間で優遇的なアクセスを提供している。本稿では、アメリカおよびEU 市場への優遇アクセスの下で衣料品の輸出を成長させてきたマダガスカルの縫製産業を例に、二国間の優遇アクセスの成果と課題を検討した。マダガスカルでは2009年に政変が発生し、アメリカ政府は同国に対して輸入関税を免除するアフリカ成長機会法（AGOA）の適用を停止した。AGOAの中止は、同国からアメリカ市場向けの輸出を64～78%減少させ、その影響は政変そのものよりも大きいと推定された。また、企業レベルでは、アメリカ向けに輸出していた工場の閉鎖と、それに伴って非熟練労働者を中心に雇用が減少したことが企業データから明らかになった。低所得国に対する優遇アクセスの中止は、輸出額の減少を通じて、教育水準が低い女性の雇用に大きな影響を与える可能性がある。貧困削減の点からは、制度の運用変更が容易な2国間よりも、多国間の枠組みの下で安定的な優遇アクセスが提供されることが望ましい。