Economic voting and electoral volatility in Turkish provinces

Two groups of questions were addressed in this paper: (1) Is voter punishment of the incumbent the primary factor in electoral volatility? Are there any other types of vote swings that underlie volatility? (2) In general, does a decline in economic growth destabilize voter behavior? If so, what kinds of vote swings does an economic downturn tend to generate? Provincial-level panel data analysis yielded the following results: (1) Changes in volatility is primarily due to vote swings from the incumbent to the opposition and also to and from left-wing and right-wing parties. (2) Lower economic growth increases electoral volatility. Economic decline induces vote swings not only from the government to the opposition but also from left-wing to right-wing parties. This is probably because right-wing parties seem more concerned with economic issues and are thus more popular than left-wing parties with lower-income voters.

Constitutional Review and Democratic Consolidation: A Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature on the prevalence of constitutional review across the world, and particularly in emerging democracies, during the last two decades. Two major questions should be addressed in this regard. First, why has the judiciary been empowered and what factors affect judicial activism? Second, does constitutional review ensure an effective self-enforcing function? In sum, the literature shows that constitutional review can make democracy self-enforcing if there is sufficient competition among political parties or between the legislature and the executive branch of government. In a more sophisticated case, political balance within the court can also ensure the observance of court decisions.

Kenya after the 2007 "post-election violence" : constitutional reform and the National Accord and Reconciliation Act

Immediately after the announcement of the re-election of President Kibaki on the evening of 30 December 2007, Kenya was thrust into the worst civil unrest experienced by the country since independence – a development that became known as the "Post-Election Violence" (PEV). However, after a subsequent process of reconciliation, the PEV came to an end within a relatively short period. The present-day politics of Kenya are being conducted within the framework of a provisional Constitution that took shape through peaceful mediation. How did Kenya manage to put a lid on a period of turmoil that placed the country in unprecedented danger? This paper traces the sequence of events that led to mediation, explains the emergency measures that were needed to maintain law and order, and indicates the remaining problems that still need to be solved.

From left to right -- Israel's repositioning in the world

第二次大戦時に大量のユダヤ人避難民を受け入れたイスラエルは、1946年の建国時には共産主義的な社会改革思想に基づくキブツ運動などの左翼的思潮を国家建設の支柱にしていたが、その後の政治過程のなかで一貫して右傾化の方向をたどり、現在では国際的にみても最も保守的な軍事主義的思想傾向が国民のあいだで広く共有され、国内のアラブ系住民の経済的従属が永く固定化するに至った。現在のイスラエル国家を思想的にも実体経済的にも支えている基本的な理念は、建国時のそれとは全く対極的な新保守主義とグローバル化された「新自由主義」的な資本主義であり、それは当然ながら国内における安価な労働力としてのアラブ系住民の存在を所与の前提条件として組み込んでいる。これは具体的にどのような経緯によるものであり、またイスラエル国家のどのような性格から導き出されるものなのか。本論稿では政治的シオニズムがイスラエル建国後から現在までにたどってきた思想的な系譜を改めて確認し、現在のイスラエルが国際的に置かれている特異な立場とその背後にある諸要因を説明する。