Japan and the Middle East after the Arab Spring

本稿は、中東における問題や紛争に対する日本の政策を考察し、中長期的な視野に立った日本の国益追求のためにはどのような選択肢が考えられるかを論じる。そのために、イランの核開発問題とシリアの市民戦争をケースとしてとりあげる。戦後の日本は中東での問題や紛争に対して、地域内諸国およびアメリカとの関係を同時に維持するために、双方の均衡を図る政策を打ち出してきたが、冷戦後には米国寄りの傾向が多く見られた。現在中東では、アラブの春の展望は不透明な部分が多い。日本は中東との関係において、問題や紛争の性質によっては負の遺産を抱える欧米とは一線を画した独自の政策とアプローチを打ち出すことが、中東資源国との関係の強化と拡大や中東市場の発展と安定には望ましいと考える。また同時に、今後の米国の中東における国益の変化が考えられることも要因ととらえ、本稿は冷戦期にみられたような、より均衡のとれた立場を打ち出し、より広い概念をもとに基づいた効果的なソフトパワーの行使を提唱する。

ロウハーニー大統領の登場から核協議の進展へ -- 米国オバマ政権の対イラン外交の転換と日本

The recent rapprochement between Iran and the United States after Hassan Rouhani was elected president in June 2013 may represent an important geopolitical shift that would alter the politics of the Middle East. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate this political shift, examine whether the interim nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States would lead to some structural shifts in the Middle East, and analyze to what extent this change can be sustainable for both sides. The main Part of this paper is divided into three sections. The first section examines in detail the process of Iran's Presidential election in June 2013, especially the sudden change of atmosphere which took place just three days before election day. The second section is devoted to analyzing the Obama administration’s shift to diplomacy with Iran. And the third section treats the on-going nuclear negotiations between Iran and P5+1, which is expected to reach a comprehensive solution. The paper argues that the dramatic shift in the US policy toward Iran is not limited to the bilateral relationships between the US and Iran, but it is related to several key issues in the Middle East, in particular to those in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. This changing process in Iranian politics and the path to diplomacy is profitable for Japanese national interest, and that Japan should also contribute to Iran's return to the international community.

Hajj Sayyah -- fashioning a self by exploring the world

ハッジ･サイヤーフ（1836-1925年）は広く19世紀中葉の欧米を見聞した旅行家であり、またイラン人として最初にアメリカ合衆国の市民権を得た人物である。彼がその生涯で訪れた国や地域は順にコーカサス地方、イスタンブール、ヨーロッパ諸国、米国、日本、中国、シンガポール、ビルマ、インドなどに及ぶ。またメッカは9度巡礼しており、エジプトも数度訪れている。だが彼の本領は単なる世界旅行者というよりも、彼が卓越した旅行記作家だったところにある。本論は前半においてサイヤーフの生涯を改めて簡潔に紹介し、後半部では彼の記録から典型的な事例を4つほど引用してその個性的な自己認識と自己形成を跡付ける。それは総じて非ヨーロッパ系のアジア出身者として西欧的な「市民」概念とどう対峙し、それを自らの属性として血肉化したかを具体的に物語っている。これを読むとハッジ･サイヤーフは欧米の一流の政治家･知識人と交流を持っていたことが理解される。またサイヤーフは当時の著名な汎イスラミスト、ジャマール･アッディーン･アフガーニー（1838/9-97年）とも親交があった。最後に筆者はサイヤーフが明治維新直後の1875年に日本（横浜）を半年ほど訪れ、ハッジ･アブドッラー･ブーシェフリーなる人物と邂逅したことを紹介している。上記4番目の事例はサイヤーフが日本を訪れる直前インタビュー記事だという。

ロシアの中東政策 -- プーチン大統領のシリア政策を通じて

The active initiative taken by Russian President Vladamir Putin by bombarding the antigovernment forces in Syria at the end of September 2015 startled the world by its precalculated boldness. Russian intervention has radically changed the dynamic of the war by empowering the Syrian government of Bashar Assad, and has resulted in a ceasefire agreement which starts on 27th February 2016, led by Russia and the US. No one can predict at present the next stage of conflicts in Syria or whether it will result in a positive solution to the tragic wars there. However, there is no denying the fact that Russia has played an important role in the development of the game. This paper analyzes the motivations of Putin in intervening in the Syrian crisis and the factors which have enabled Russia to play an enlarged role in the Middle East, seemingly beyond its objective capabilities. Legacies of international networks built during the Soviet period; shrewd tactics in making use of the inconsistency and vacillation of US policies, particularly towards the Middle East; its historical experience of interaction with the Muslim cultures, including domestic ones; its geopolitical perception of world politics, and the export of energy resources and military weapons as tools of diplomacy are some of the factors which explain Russian behavior. At the same time, the personal leadership and accumulated experience of President Putin in formulating Russian diplomacy and in manipulating different issues in a combined policy should be taken into account. His initiative in Syria succeeded to some extent in turning world attention away from the Ukrainian issue, aimed at changing the present sanctions imposed by the West. Another phenomenon to be noted in the international arena is the newly developed mutual interaction between Russia and the Arab countries in the Gulf. Frequent visits to Russia by autocratic leaders, including kings, emirsand princes do not always reflect a shared common interest between Russia and the Arab leaders. On the contrary, in spite of sharp and fundamental differences in their attitude toward the issues related to Syria, Iran and Yemen, the Arab leaders find it necessary to communicate with Russia and to know Russia’s expected strategies and intentions towards the Middle East, apart from its oil and gas policies. The Iran deal on the nuclear issue in July 2015 may have been a factor behind the phenomena.

革命後のイランにおける特権企業の生成と変貌 -- モスタズアファーン財団を事例に

It is a well-known and well-studied fact that after the 1979 revolution, Iran's economy went through a process of fundamental change and as a result a totally different economic system was established. Among the most remarkable changes was the emergence of so-called para-statal organizations, which were supervised by some institution within the state, while not being controlled by the government. Because of their politically strong position, they enjoy many privileges such as tax exemption or easy access to credit. Although deeply regarded as one of the most striking features of the postrevolution economic system, published studies about para-statal entities have been very limited so far. In this paper, I will focus on one of the biggest para-statal organizations, Mostaz`afan (Oppressed) Foundation. I will attempt to examine the historical and political background behind the formation and transformation of this conglomerate, its system of corporate governance, and its economic scale and scope over the past 35 years. Para-statal conglomerates together with state owned companies are going to be the two most important pillars of Iran's economy in the foreseeable future. Understanding their history will not only help us learn about the current economic system of Iran, but also give us some insight into the future of the economy, too.

アラブ首長国連邦の対イラン経済関係と今後の展望

This paper investigates the changes in economic relations between Iran and the UAE, which historically has continued maintaining close economic intercourse with Iran in the Gulf Area, examining the prospects for change in their relationships in the future. By focusing on their trade relations and workers' remittances among the GCC and Iran, this paper discusses changes in their economic linkages. The result of the analysis shows that the economic linkages with the UAE were closer with Iran than other GCC countries during the period 2000 - 2014.