11 resultados para trend following mean reversion

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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We report the intercalibration of paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) and radiocarbon dates of two expanded postglacial sediment cores from geographically proximal, but oceanographically and sedimentologically contrasting settings. The objective is to improve relative correlation and chronology over what can be achieved with either method alone. Core MD99-2269 was taken from the Húnaflóaáll Trough on the north Iceland shelf. Core MD99-2322 was collected from the Kangerlussuaq Trough on the east Greenland margin. Both cores are well dated, with 27 and 20 accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dates for cores 2269 and 2322, respectively. Paleomagnetic measurements made on u channel samples document a strong, stable, single-component magnetization. The temporal similarities of paleomagnetic inclination and declination records are shown using each core's independent calibrated radiocarbon age model. Comparison of the PSV records reveals that the relative correlation between the two cores could be further improved. Starting in the depth domain, tie points initially based on calibrated 14C dates are either adjusted or added to maximize PSV correlations. Radiocarbon dates from both cores are then combined on a common depth scale resulting from the PSV correlation. Support for the correlation comes from the consistent interweaving of dates, correct alignment of the Saksunarvatn tephra, and the improved correlation of paleoceanographic proxy data (percent carbonate). These results demonstrate that PSV correlation used in conjunction with 14C dates can improve relative correlation and also regional chronologies by allowing dates from various stratigraphic sequences to be combined into a single, higher dating density, age-to-depth model.

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Titanium and iron concentration data from the anoxic Cariaco Basin, off the Venezuelan coast, can be used to infer variations in the hydrological cycle over northern South America during the past 14,000 years with subdecadal resolution. Following a dry Younger Dryas, a period of increased precipitation and riverine discharge occurred during the Holocene 'thermal maximum'. Since ~5400 years ago, a trend toward drier conditions is evident from the data, with high-amplitude fluctuations and precipitation minima during the time interval 3800 to 2800 years ago and during the 'Little Ice Age'. These regional changes in precipitation are best explained by shifts in the mean latitude of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), potentially driven by Pacific-based climate variability. The Cariaco Basin record exhibits strong correlations with climate records from distant regions, including the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere, providing evidence for global teleconnections among regional climates.

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High-resolution analyses of sediments at equatorial Atlantic Sites 662, 663, and 664 define the accumulation rates of biogenically produced CaC03 and opal and of eolian dust from North Africa over the last 3.7 m.y. The mean flux of opal increased abruptly by 60%-70% near 2.5 Ma (2.65 to 2.3 Ma), reflecting pulses of increased opal productivity along the equator due mainly to increased upwelling. The mean winter-plume dust influx from Sahelian and Saharan Africa also increased at this time by between 35% and 75%, following smaller increases earlier in the late Pliocene. The increased opal flux implies a stronger zonal component of the southern trade winds in Southern Hemisphere winter. Consistent with this wind configuration, the stronger dust flux suggests a weaker southwesterly monsoonal flow into Africa in Northern Hemisphere summer, thus increasing Sahelian aridity and winter-plume dust fluxes. Dust fluxes to the equator may possibly have also been enhanced by stronger Northern Hemisphere winter trade winds and a more southerly position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over Africa. These late Pliocene biogenic and terrigenous flux changes coincided with the appearance of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, implying an ultimate causal link. The immediate control on changes in tropical circulation may, however, have been changes in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. A steady background trend of increasing winter-plume dust flux occurred from the late Pliocene until the middle Pleistocene. This may reflect a progressive, tectonically induced aridification of northern and eastern Africa because of the gradual uplift of the Tibetan Plateau.

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The loss of water in a desiccating atmosphere (c.40% r.h. at 10°C) and uptake of water from a saturated atmosphere (100% r.h. at 10°C) was recorded at intervals over periods of many hours or days in the dominant mosses and macroiichens occurring near the Australian Casey Station. Wilkes Land, continental Antarctica. While major differences exist in the water holding capacity and rates of water loss between mosses and lichens, the minimum levels attained after prolonged exposure to desiccating conditions are remarkably similar. By contrast, the volume of water absorbed from a saturated atmosphere is very similar in both groups of cryptogams. Morphological and anatomical characters are responsible for many of the differences, both between species, and within species exhibiting different growth features. Thus, significantly larger amounts of water are held by colonies of Bryum algens with a dense tomentum of rhizoids than those with sparse rhizoids; similarly, the rhizinate Umbilicaria aprina held a greater volume of water than the erhizinate U. decussata. The filamentous mat form of Alectoria mimiscula permits a much higher water content to be attained than in the coarser fruticose forms of Usnea sphacelata and U. antarctica. The dense shoot arrangement in Schistidium antarcticum accounts for the high water holding capacity in the hydric turf form whereas the less densely packed shoots and thicker cell walls of the xeric cushion form maintain a lower water content. The rate of water loss (as percentage dry weight) was much faster in the turf form of Schistidium and tomenlose form of Bryum, although this trend was reversed when expressed as percentage of the initial water content. Minimal water contents arc achieved by the lichens in desiccating conditions within 6-12 hours, whereas the mosses take several times longer. The water relations characteristics of these cryptogams are considered in the light of their distribution in the field and of their metabolic activity under prevailing Antarctic conditions.

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This paper presents a new fossil pollen record from Tso Moriri (32°54'N, 78°19'E, 4512 m a.s.l.) and seeks to reconstruct changes in mean annual precipitation (MAP) during the last 12,000 years. This high-alpine lake occupies an area of 140 km**2 in a glacial-tectonic valley in the northwestern Himalaya. The region has a cold climate, with a MAP <300 mm, and open vegetation. The hydrology is controlled by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), but winter westerly-associated precipitation also affects the regional water balance. Results indicate that precipitation levels varied significantly during the Holocene. After a rapid increase in MAP, a phase of maximum humidity was reached between ca. 11 to 9.6 cal ka BP, followed by a gradual decline in MAP. This trend parallels the reduction in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Comparison of different palaeoclimate proxy records reveal evidence for a stronger Holocene decrease in precipitation in the northern versus the southern parts of the ISM domain. The long-term trend of ISM weakening is overlaid with several short periods of greater dryness, which are broadly synchronous with the North Atlantic cold spells, suggesting reduced amounts of westerly-associated winter precipitation. Compared to the mid and late Holocene, it appears that westerlies had a greater influence on the western parts of the ISM domain during the early Holocene. During this period, the westerly-associated summer precipitation belt was positioned at Mediterranean latitudes and amplified the ISM-derived precipitation. The Tso Moriri pollen record and moisture reconstructions also suggest that changes in climatic conditions affected the ancient Harappan Civilisation, which flourished in the greater Indus Valley from approximately 5.2 to 3 cal ka BP. The prolonged Holocene trend towards aridity, punctuated by an interval of increased dryness (between ca. 4.5 to 4.3 cal ka BP), may have pushed the Mature Harappan urban settlements (between ca. 4.5 to 3.9 cal ka BP) to develop more efficient agricultural practices to deal with the increasingly acute water shortages. The amplified aridity associated with North Atlantic cooling between ca. 4 to 3.6 and around 3.2 cal ka BP further hindered local agriculture, possibly causing the deurbanisation that occurred from ca. 3.9 cal ka BP and eventual collapse of the Harappan Civilisation between ca. 3.5 to 3 cal ka BP.

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During the fourth Antarctic voyage ANT-IV of the research icebreaker POLARSTERN standard meteorological measurements have been performed. The measurements include 3-hourly synoptic observations as well as daily upper air soundings. The measurements started on September 6 1985 at Bremerhaven and were terminated at April 28 1986 in Punta Arenas. The 3-hourly synoptic observations are performed following the instructions of the FM 13 ships code defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The datasets include automatic measurements such as mean ship's speed, wind velocity, wind direction, air temperature, water temperature as well as visual observations such as total cloud amount, present weather, clouds, height and period of swell waves, ice classification. The visual observation are not performed during night time. For the upper air soundings VAISALA RS80 radiosondes, carried by helium-filled balloons (TOTEX 350 - 1500) were used. Data reception and evaluation were carried out by a MicroCora System (VAISALA). The upper air soundings include profile measurements of pressure, temperature, relative humidity and wind vector. Usually the soundings started at the heliport (10 m above sea level) and terminated between 15 and 37 km. The height of the measurements was calculated by applying the barometric formula. The wind vector was determined with the aid of the OMEGA navigation system.

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The secular record of annual mean temperatures of Bremen shows that inhomogeneities - especially caused by station transfers - lead to serious problems concerning the interpretation of climatic trends or fluctuations. Especially two transfers of the meteorological observing station in Bremen within our century - 1935/36 and 1978 - caused significant inhomogeneities, well documented by parallel measurements for several years. Obviously the stagnation of the temperature level of the original data set is a result of these transfers. The homogenized record version reveals a significant warming trend of about 1 Kelvin within the last century.

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Monitoring of permafrost has been ongoing since 1978 in the Abisko area, northernmost Sweden, when measurements of active layer thickness started. In 1980, boreholes were drilled in three mires in the area to record permafrost temperatures. Recordings were made twice per year, and the last data were obtained in 2002. During the International Polar Year (2007-2008), new boreholes were drilled within the 'Back to the Future' (BTF) and 'Thermal State of Permafrost' (TSP) projects that enabled year-round temperature monitoring. Mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) in the mires are close to 0°C, ranging from -0.16 to -0.47°C at 5 m depth. Data from the boreholes show increasing ground temperatures in the upper and lower part by 0.4 to 1°C between 1980 and 2002. At one mire, permafrost thickness has decreased from 15 m in 1980 to ca. 9 m in 2009, with an accelerating thawing trend during the last decade.

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The terrigenous sediment proportion of the deep sea sediments from off Northwest Africa has been studied in order to distinguish between the aeolian and the fluvial sediment supply. The present and fossil Saharan dust trajectories were recognized from the distribution patterns of the aeolian sediment. The following timeslices have been investigated: Present, 6,000, 12,000 and 18,000 y. B. P. Furthermore, the quantity of dust deposited off the Saharan coast has been estimated. For this purpose, 80 surface sediment samples and 34 sediment cores have been analysed. The stratigraphy of the cores has been achieved from oxygen isotopic curves, 14C-dating, foraminiferal transfer temperatures, and carbonate contents. Silt sized biogenic opal generally accounts for less than 2 % of the total insoluble sediment proportion. Only under productive upwelling waters and off river mouths, the opal proportion exceeds 2 % significantly. The modern terrigenous sediment from off the Saharan coast is generally characterized by intensely stained quartz grains. They indicate an origin from southern Saharan and Sahelian laterites, and a zonal aeolian transport in midtropospheric levels, between 1.5 an 5.5 km, by 'Harmattan' Winds. The dust particles follow large outbreaks of Saharan air across the African coast between 15° and 21° N. Their trajectories are centered at about 18° N and continue further into a clockwise gyre situated south of the Canary Islands. This course is indicated by a sickle-shaped tongue of coarser grain sizes in the deep-sea sediment. Such loess-sized terrigenous particles only settle within a zone extending to 700 km offshore. Fine silt and clay sized particles, with grain sizes smaller than 10- 15 µm, drift still further west and can be traced up to more than 4,000 km distance from their source areas. Additional terrigenous silt which is poor in stained quartz occurs within a narrow zone off the western Sahara between 20° and 27° N only. It depicts the present dust supply by the trade winds close to the surface. The dust load originates from the northwestern Sahara, the Atlas Mountains and coastal areas, which contain a particularly low amount of stained quartz. The distribution pattern of these pale quartz sediments reveals a SSW-dispersal of dust being consistent with the present trade wind direction from the NNE. In comparison to the sediments from off the Sahara and the deeper subtropical Atlantic, the sediments off river mouths, in particular off the Senegal river, are characterized by an additional input of fine grained terrigenous particles (< 6 µm). This is due to fluvial suspension load. The fluvial discharge leads to a relative excess of fine grained particles and is observed in a correlation diagram of the modal grain sizes of terrigenous silt with the proportion of fine fraction (< 6 µm). The aeolian sediment contribution by the Harmattan Winds strongly decreased during the Climatic Optimum at 6,000 y. B. P. The dust discharge of the trade winds is hardly detectable in the deep-sea sediments. This probably indicates a weakened atmospheric circulation. In contrast, the fluvial sediment supply reached a maximum, and can be traced to beyond Cape Blanc. Thus, the Saharan climate was more humid at 6,000 y B. P. A latitudinal shift of the Harmattan driven dust outbreaks cannot be observed. Also during the Glacial, 18,000 y. B. P., Harmattan dust transport crossed the African coast at latitudes of 15°-20° N. Its sediment load increased intensively, and markedly coarser grains spread further into the Atlantic Ocean. An expanded zone of pale-quart sediments indicates an enhanced dust supply by the trade winds blowing from the NE. No synglacial fluvial sediment contribution can be recognized between 12° and 30° N. This indicates a dry glacial climate and a strengthened stmospheric circulation over the Sahelian and Saharan region. The climatic transition pahes, at 12, 000 y. B. P., between the last Glacial and the Intergalcial, which is compareable to the Alerod in Europe, is characterized by an intermediate supply of terrigenous particles. The Harmattan dust transport wa weaker than during the Glacial. The northeasterly trade winds were still intensive. River supply reached a first postglacial maximum seaward of the Senegal river mouth. This indicates increasing humidity over the southern Sahara and a weaker atmospheric circulation as compared to the glacial. The accumulation rates of the terrigenous silt proportion (> 6 µm) decrcase exponentially with increasing distance from the Saharan coast. Those of the terrigenous fine fraction (< 6 µm) follow the same trend and show almost similar gradients. Accordingly, also the terrigenous fine fraction is believed to result predominantly from aeolian transport. In the Atlantic deep-sea sediments, the annual terrigenous sediment accumulation has fluctuated, from about 60 million tons p. a. during the Late Glacial (13,500-18,000 y. B. P, aeolian supply only) to about 33 million tons p. a. during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (6,000-9,000 y. B. P, mainly fluvial supply), when the river supply has reached a maximum, and to about 45 million tons p. a. during the last 4,000 years B. P. (fluvial supply only south of 18° N).

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Anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 concentrations are increasing rapidly, resulting in declining seawater pH (ocean acidification). The majority of ocean acidification research to date has focused on the effects of decreased pH in single-species experiments. To assess how decreased pH may influence natural macroalgal-grazer assemblages, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with the common, chemically defended Antarctic brown macroalga Desmarestia menziesii and natural densities of its associated grazer assemblage, predominantly amphipods. Grazer assemblages were collected from the immediate vicinity of Palmer Station (64°46'S, 64°03'W) in March 2013. Assemblages were exposed for 30 days to three levels of pH representing present-day mean summer ambient conditions (pH 8.0), predicted near-future conditions (2100, pH 7.7), and distant-future conditions (pH 7.3). A significant difference was observed in the composition of mesograzer assemblages in the lowest pH treatment (pH 7.3). The differences between assemblages exposed to pH 7.3 and those maintained in the other two treatments were driven primarily by decreases in the abundance of the amphipod Metaleptamphopus pectinatus with decreasing pH, reduced copepod abundance at pH 7.7, and elevated ostracod abundance at pH 7.7. Generally, the assemblages maintained at pH 7.7 were not significantly different from those at ambient pH, demonstrating resistance to short-term decreased pH. The relatively high prevalence of generalist amphipods may have contributed to a net stabilizing effect on the assemblages exposed to decreased pH. Overall, our results suggest that crustacean grazer assemblages associated with D. menziesii, the dominant brown macroalgal species of the western Antarctic Peninsula, may be resistant to short-term near-future decreases in seawater pH.

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The seasonal, spatial and bathymetric changes in the distribution of chloroplastic pigments (Chl a, phaeopigments and CPE), TOC, TON, ATP, bottom water nutrient content and the main biochemical classes of organic compounds (lipids, proteins and carbohydrates) were recorded from May 1994 to September 1995 over the continental margin of northern Crete. The concentration of chloroplastic pigment equivalents (CPE) was always low, dropping dramatically along the shelf-slope gradient. Microbial activity (ATP) also dropped sharply beyond the continental shelf following a distribution pattern similar to TOC and TON. Lipid, protein and carbohydrate concentrations, as well as biopolymeric carbon were comparable to those reported for other more productive areas, however, the quality of the organic matter itself was rather poor. Thus, carbohydrates, the dominant biochemical class, were characterised by being highly (80-99%) refractory, as soluble carbohydrates represented (on annual average) only 6% of the total carbohydrate pool. Protein and lipid concentrations strongly decreased with depth, indicating depletion of trophic resources in the bathyal zone. Proteins appeared to be the more degradable compounds and indeed the protein to carbohydrate ratios were found to decrease strongly in the deeper stations. Organic matter content and quality decreased both with increasing distance from the coast and within the sediment. All sedimentary organic compounds were found to vary between sampling periods, with the changes being more pronounced over the continental shelf. The different temporal patterns of the various components suggest a different composition and/or origin of the OM inputs during the different sampling periods. The amount of material reaching the sediments below 540 m is extremely low, suggesting that most of the organic material is decomposed and/or utilised before reaching the sea floor. In conclusion, the continental shelf and bathyal sediments of the Cretan Sea can be considered, from a trophic point of view, as two different subsystems.