Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Source data for Plos ONE publication Redefining thermal regimes to design reserves for coral reefs in the face of climate change

Reef managers cannot fight global warming through mitigation at local scale, but they can use information on thermal patterns to plan for reserve networks that maximize the probability of persistence of their reef system. Here we assess previous methods for the design of reserves for climate change and present a new approach to prioritize areas for conservation that leverages the most desirable properties of previous approaches. The new method moves the science of reserve design for climate change a step forwards by: (1) recognizing the role of seasonal acclimation in increasing the limits of environmental tolerance of corals and ameliorating the bleaching response; (2) including information from several bleaching events, which frequency is likely to increase in the future; (3) assessing relevant variability at country scales, where most management plans are carried out. We demonstrate the method in Honduras, where a reassessment of the marine spatial plan is in progress.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

The impact of fluctuating light on the dinoflagellate Prorocentrum micans depends on NO3- and CO2 availability

Increasing atmospheric pCO2 and its dissolution into oceans leads to ocean acidification and warming, which reduces the thickness of upper mixing layer (UML) and upward nutrient supply from deeper layers. These events may alter the nutritional conditions and the light regime to which primary producers are exposed in the UML. In order to better understand the physiology behind the responses to the concomitant climate changes factors, we examined the impact of light fluctuation on the dinoflagellate Prorocentrum micans grown at low (1 µmol/L) or high (800 µmol/L) [NO3(-)] and at high (1000 µatm) or low (390 µatm, ambient) pCO2. The light regimes to which the algal cells were subjected were (1) constant light at a photon flux density (PFD) of either 100 (C100) or 500 (C500) µmol/m**2/s or (2) fluctuating light between 100 or 500 µmol photons/m**2/s with a frequency of either 15 (F15) or 60 (F60) min. Under continuous light, the initial portion of the light phase required the concomitant presence of high CO2 and NO3(-) concentrations for maximum growth. After exposure to light for 3h, high CO2 exerted a negative effect on growth and effective quantum yield of photosystem II (F'(v)/F'(m)). Fluctuating light ameliorated growth in the first period of illumination. In the second 3h of treatment, higher frequency (F15) of fluctuations afforded high growth rates, whereas the F60 treatment had detrimental consequences, especially when NO3(-) concentration was lower. F'(v)/F'(m) respondent differently from growth to fluctuating light: the fluorescence yield was always lower than at continuous light at 100 µmol/m**2/s, and always higher at 500 µmol/m**2/s. Our data show that the impact of atmospheric pCO2 increase on primary production of dinoflagellate depends on the availability of nitrate and the irradiance (intensity and the frequency of irradiance fluctuations) to which the cells are exposed. The impact of global change on oceanic primary producers would therefore be different in waters with different chemical and physical (mixing) properties.

Appendix 7: List of species with their distribution ranges restricted to the corresponding phytogeographical region

Understanding species distribution patterns and the corresponding environmental determinants is a crucial step in the development of effective strategies for the conservation and management of plant communities and ecosystems. Therefore, a central prerequisite is the biogeographical and macroecological analysis of factors and processes that determine contemporary, potential, as well as future geographic distribution of species. This thesis has been conducted in the framework of the BIOMAPS-BIOTA project at the Nees Institute of Biodiversity of Plants, which was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The study investigated patterns of plants species richness and phytogeographic regions under contemporary environmental conditions and forecasted future climate change in the area of West Africa covering five countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo. Firstly, geographic patterns of vascular plant species richness have been depicted at a relatively fine spatial resolution based on the potential distribution of 3,393 species. Species richness is closely related to the steep climatic gradient existing in the region with a high concentration of species in the most humid areas in the south and decreases towards the northern drier areas. The investigation of the effectiveness of the existing network of protected areas shows an overall good coverage of species in the study area. However, the proportion of covered species is considerably lower at national extent for some countries, thus calling for more protected areas in order to cover adequately a maximum number of plants species in these countries. Secondly, based on the potential distribution range of vascular plant species, seven phytogeographic regions have been delineated that broadly reflect the vegetation zones as defined by White (1983). However notable differences to the delineation of White (1983) occur at the margins of some regions. Corresponding to a general southward shifted of all regions. And expansion of the Sahel vegetation zone is observed in the north, while the rainforest zone is decreased in the very south.This is alarming since the rainforest shelters a high number of species and a high proportion of range-restricted or endemic species, despite their relatively small extent compared to the other regions. Finally, the evaluation of the potential impact of climate change on plant species richness in the study area, results in a severe loss of future suitable habitat for up to 50% of species per grid cell, particularly in the rainforest region. Moreover, the analysis of the possible shift of phytogeographic regions shows in general a strong deterioration of the West African rainforest. In contrast the drier areas are expanding continuously, although a slight gain in species number can be observed in some particular regions. The overall lesson to retain from the results of this study is that the West African rainforest should be fixed as a high priority area for the conservation of biodiversity of plants, since it is subject to severe contemporary and projected future threats.

Sea urchins in a high CO2 world: partitioned effects of body-size, ocean warming and acidification on metabolic rate

Body-size and temperature are the major factors explaining metabolic rate, and the additional factor of pH is a major driver at the biochemical level. These three factors have frequently been found to interact, complicating the formulation of broad models predicting metabolic rates and hence ecological functioning. In this first study of the effects of warming and ocean acidification, and their potential interaction, on metabolic rate across a broad body-size range (two-to-three orders of magnitude difference in body mass) we addressed the impact of climate change on the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma in context with climate projections for east Australia, an ocean warming hotspot. Urchins were gradually introduced to two temperatures (18 and 23 °C) and two pH (7.5 and 8.0), and maintained for two months. That a new physiological steady-state had been reached, otherwise know as acclimation, was validated through identical experimental trials separated by several weeks. The relationship between body-size, temperature and acidification on the metabolic rate of H. erythrogramma was strikingly stable. Both stressors caused increases in metabolic rate; 20% for temperature and 19% for pH. Combined effects were additive; a 44% increase in metabolism. Body-size had a highly stable relationship with metabolic rate regardless of temperature or pH. None of these diverse drivers of metabolism interacted or modulated the effects of the others, highlighting the partitioned nature of how each influences metabolic rate, and the importance of achieving a full acclimation state. Despite these increases in energetic demand there was very limited capacity for compensatory modulating of feeding rate; food consumption increased only in the very smallest specimens, and only in response to temperature, and not pH. Our data show that warming, acidification and body-size all substantially affect metabolism and are highly consistent and partitioned in their effects, and for H. erythrogramma near-future climate change will incur a substantial energetic cost.

Hydrogeological investigations in the upper Ouémé catchment in Benin, West Africa

The scope of this PhD thesis was the hydrogeological conceptualisation of the Upper Ouémé river catchment in Benin. The study area exceeds 14,500 km**2 and is underlain by a crystalline basement. At this setting the typical sequence of aquifers - a regolith aquifer at the top and a fractured bedrock aquifer at the bottom - is encountered, which is found in basement areas all over Africa and elsewhere in the world. The chosen regional approach revealed important information about the hydrochemistry and hydrogeology of this catchment. Based on the regional conceptual model a numerical groundwater flow model was designed. The numerical model was used to estimate the impact of climate change on the regional groundwater resources. This study was realised within the framework of the German interdisciplinary research project IMPETUS (English translation: "Integrated approach to the efficient management of scarce water resources in West Africa"), which is jointly managed by the German universities of Bonn and Cologne. Since the year 2000 the Upper Ouémé catchment was the principal target for investigations into the relevant processes of the regional water cycle. A first study from 2000 to 2003 (Fass, 2004, http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hbz:5n-03849) focused on the hydrogeology of a small local catchment (~30 km**2). In the course of this thesis five field campaigns were underdone from the year 2004 to 2006. In the beginning of 2004 a groundwater monitoring net was installed based on 12 automatic data loggers. Manual piezometric measurements and the sampling of groundwater and surface water were realised for each campaign throughout the whole study area. Water samples were analysed for major ions, for a choice of heavy metals and for their composition by deuterium, oxygen-18 and tritium. The numerical model was performed with FEFLOW. The hydraulic and hydrochemical characteristics were described for the regolith aquifer and the bedrock aquifer. The regolith aquifer plays the role of the groundwater stock with low conductivity while the fractures of the bedrock may conduct water relatively fast towards extraction points. Flow in fractures of the bedrock depends on the connectivity of the fracture network which might be of local to subregional importance. Stable isotopes in combination with hydrochemistry proved that recharge occurs on catchment scale and exclusively by precipitation. Influx of groundwater from distant areas along dominant structures like the Kandi fault or from the Atacora mountain chain is excluded. The analysis of tritium in groundwater from different depths revealed the interesting fact of the strongly rising groundwater ages. Bedrock groundwater may possibly be much older than 50 years. Equilibrium phases of the silicate weathering products kaolinite and montmorillonite showed that the deeper part of the regolith aquifer and the bedrock aquifer feature either stagnant or less mobile groundwater while the shallow aquifer level is influenced by seasonal groundwater table fluctuations. The hydrochemical data characterised this zone by the progressive change of the hydrochemical facies of recently infiltrated rainwater on its flow path into deeper parts of the aquifers. Surprisingly it was found out that seasonal influences on groundwater hydrochemistry are minor, mainly because they affect only the groundwater levels close to the surface. The transfer of the hydrogeological features of the Upper Ouémé catchment into a regional numerical model demanded a strong simplification. Groundwater tables are a reprint of the general surface morphology. Pumping or other types of groundwater extraction would have only very local impact on the available groundwater resources. It was possible to integrate IMPETUS scenario data into the groundwater model. As a result it was shown that the impact of climate change on the groundwater resources until the year 2025 under the given conditions will be negligible due to the little share of precipitation needed for recharge and the low water needs for domestic use. Reason for concern is the groundwater quality on water points in the vicinity of settlements because of contamination by human activities as shown for the village of Dogué. Nitrate concentrations achieved in many places already alerting levels. Health risks from fluoride or heavy metals were excluded for the Upper Ouémé area.

Sea-floor images from during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XV/3 to the Weddell Sea, Antarctica

Transects of a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) providing sea-bed videos and photographs were carried out during POLARSTERN expedition ANT-XV/3 focussing on the ecology of benthic assemblages on the Antarctic shelf in the South-Eastern Weddell Sea. The ROV-system sprint 103 was equiped with two video- and one still camera, lights, flash-lights, compass, and parallel lasers providing a scale in the images, a tether-management system (TMS), a winch, and the board units. All cameras used the same main lense and could be tilted. Videos were recorded in Betacam-format and (film-)slides were made by decision of the scientific pilot. The latter were mainly made under the aspect to improve the identification of organisms depicted in the videos because the still photographs have a much higher optical resolution than the videos. In the photographs species larger than 3 mm, in the videos larger than 1 cm are recognisable and countable. Under optimum conditions the transects were strait; the speed and direction of the ROV were determined by the drift of the ship in the coastal current, since both, the ship and the ROV were used as a drifting system; the option to operate the vehicle actively was only used to avoide obstacles and to reach at best a distance of only approximately 30 cm to the sea-floor. As a consequence the width of the photographs in the foreground is approximately 50 cm. Deviations from this strategy resulted mainly from difficult ice- and weather conditions but also from high current velocity and local up-welling close to the sea-bed. The sea-bed images provide insights into the general composition of key species, higher systematic groups and ecological guilds. Within interdisciplinary approaches distributions of assemblages can be attributed to environmental conditions such as bathymetry, sediment characteristics, water masses and current regimes. The images also contain valuable information on how benthic species are associated to each other. Along the transects, small- to intermediate-scaled disturbances, e.g. by grounding icebergs were analysed and further impact to the entire benthic system by local succession of recolonisation was studied. This information can be used for models predicting the impact of climate change to benthic life in the Southern Ocean. All these approaches contribute to a better understanding of the fiunctioning of the benthic system and related components of the entire Antarctic marine ecosystem. Despite their scientific value the imaging methods meet concerns about the protection of sensitive Antarctic benthic systems since they are non-invasive and they also provide valuable material for education and outreach purposes.

Sea-floor images during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XIII/3 to the Weddell Sea, Antarctica

Transects of a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) providing sea-bed videos and photographs were carried out during POLARSTERN expedition ANT-XIII/3 focussing on the ecology of benthic assemblages on the Antarctic shelf in the South-Eastern Weddell Sea. The ROV-system sprint 103 was equiped with two video- and one still camera, lights, flash-lights, compass, and parallel lasers providing a scale in the images, a tether-management system (TMS), a winch, and the board units. All cameras used the same main lense and could be tilted. Videos were recorded in Betacam-format and (film-)slides were made by decision of the scientific pilot. The latter were mainly made under the aspect to improve the identification of organisms depicted in the videos because the still photographs have a much higher optical resolution than the videos. In the photographs species larger than 3 mm, in the videos larger than 1 cm are recognisable and countable. Under optimum conditions the transects were strait; the speed and direction of the ROV were determined by the drift of the ship in the coastal current, since both, the ship and the ROV were used as a drifting system; the option to operate the vehicle actively was only used to avoide obstacles and to reach at best a distance of only approximately 30 cm to the sea-floor. As a consequence the width of the photographs in the foreground is approximately 50 cm. Deviations from this strategy resulted mainly from difficult ice- and weather conditions but also from high current velocity and local up-welling close to the sea-bed. The sea-bed images provide insights into the general composition of key species, higher systematic groups and ecological guilds. Within interdisciplinary approaches distributions of assemblages can be attributed to environmental conditions such as bathymetry, sediment characteristics, water masses and current regimes. The images also contain valuable information on how benthic species are associated to each other. Along the transects, small- to intermediate-scaled disturbances, e.g. by grounding icebergs were analysed and further impact to the entire benthic system by local succession of recolonisation was studied. This information can be used for models predicting the impact of climate change to benthic life in the Southern Ocean. All these approaches contribute to a better understanding of the fiunctioning of the benthic system and related components of the entire Antarctic marine ecosystem. Despite their scientific value the imaging methods meet concerns about the protection of sensitive Antarctic benthic systems since they are non-invasive and they also provide valuable material for education and outreach purposes.

Sea-floor images from ROV transects during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XVII/3 (EASIZ III) to the Weddell Sea, Antarctica

Transects of a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) providing sea-bed videos and photographs were carried out during POLARSTERN expedition ANT-XVII/3 focussing on the ecology of benthic assemblages on the Antarctic shelf in the South-Eastern Weddell Sea. The ROV-system sprint 103 was equiped with two video- and one still camera, lights, flash-lights, compass, and parallel lasers providing a scale in the images, a tether-management system (TMS), a winch, and the board units. All cameras used the same main lense and could be tilted. Videos were recorded in Betacam-format and (film-)slides were made by decision of the scientific pilot. The latter were mainly made under the aspect to improve the identification of organisms depicted in the videos because the still photographs have a much higher optical resolution than the videos. In the photographs species larger than 3 mm, in the videos larger than 1 cm are recognisable and countable. Under optimum conditions the transects were strait; the speed and direction of the ROV were determined by the drift of the ship in the coastal current, since both, the ship and the ROV were used as a drifting system; the option to operate the vehicle actively was only used to avoide obstacles and to reach at best a distance of only approximately 30 cm to the sea-floor. As a consequence the width of the photographs in the foreground is approximately 50 cm. Deviations from this strategy resulted mainly from difficult ice- and weather conditions but also from high current velocity and local up-welling close to the sea-bed. The sea-bed images provide insights into the general composition of key species, higher systematic groups and ecological guilds. Within interdisciplinary approaches distributions of assemblages can be attributed to environmental conditions such as bathymetry, sediment characteristics, water masses and current regimes. The images also contain valuable information on how benthic species are associated to each other. Along the transects, small- to intermediate-scaled disturbances, e.g. by grounding icebergs were analysed and further impact to the entire benthic system by local succession of recolonisation was studied. This information can be used for models predicting the impact of climate change to benthic life in the Southern Ocean. All these approaches contribute to a better understanding of the fiunctioning of the benthic system and related components of the entire Antarctic marine ecosystem. Despite their scientific value the imaging methods meet concerns about the protection of sensitive Antarctic benthic systems since they are non-invasive and they also provide valuable material for education and outreach purposes.