Framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems

Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. The model can be run with the use of GeNIe software package. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.

Strontium and neodymium isotope data for barite separates and pore waters, and isotope and concentration data for foraminifera and fish teeth from DSDP Leg 85 sediments

Strontium and neodymium isotopic data are reported for barite samples chemically separated from Late Miocene to Pliocene sediments from the eastern equatorial Pacific. At a site within a region of very high productivity close to the equator, 87Sr/86Sr ratios in the barite separates are indistinguishable from those of foraminifera and fish teeth from the same samples. However, at two sites north of the productivity maximum barite separates have slightly, but consistently lower (averaging 0.000062) ratios than the coexisting phases, although values still fall within the total range of published values for the contemporaneous seawater strontium isotope curve. We examine possible causes for this offset including recrystallization of the foraminifera, fish teeth or barite, the presence of non-barite contaminants, or incorporation of older, reworked deep-sea barite; the inclusion of a small amount of hydrothermal barite in the sediments seems most consistent with our data, although there are difficulties associated with adequate production and transportation of this phase. Barite is unlikely to replace calcite as a preferred tracer of seawater strontium isotopes in carbonate-rich sediments, but may prove a useful substitute in cases where calcite is rare or strongly affected by diagenesis. In contrast to the case for strontium, neodymium isotopic ratios in the barite separates are far from expected values for contemporary seawater, and appear to be dominated by an (unobserved) eolian component with high neodymium concentration and low 143Nd/144Nd. These results suggest that the true potential of barite as an indicator of paleocean neodymium isotopic ratios and REE patterns will be realized only when a more selective separation procedure is developed.