13 resultados para Variable response prediction

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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During the last glacial period, the North Atlantic region experienced pronounced, millennial-scale alternations between cold, stadial conditions and milder interstadial conditions-commonly referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations-as well as periods of massive iceberg discharge known as Heinrich events. Changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature, as recorded in Greenland, are thought to have affected the location of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone and the strength of the Indian summer monsoon. Here we use high-resolution records of sediment colour-a measure of terrigenous versus biogenic content-from the Cariaco Basin off the coast of Venezuela and the Arabian Sea to assess teleconnections with the North Atlantic climate system during the last glacial period. The Cariaco record indicates that the intertropical convergence zone migrated seasonally over the site during mild stadial conditions, but was permanently displaced south of the basin during peak stadials and Heinrich events. In the Arabian Sea, we find evidence of a weak Indian summer monsoon during the stadial events. The tropical records show a more variable response to North Atlantic cooling than the Greenland temperature records. We therefore suggest that Greenland climate is especially sensitive to variations in the North Atlantic system-in particular sea-ice extent-whereas the intertropical convergence zone and Indian monsoon system respond primarily to variations in mean Northern Hemisphere temperature.

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Accumulation of an intracellular pool of carbon (C(i) pool) is one strategy by which marine algae overcome the low abundance of dissolved CO2 (CO2 (aq) ) in modern seawater. To identify the environmental conditions under which algae accumulate an acid-labile C(i) pool, we applied a (14) C pulse-chase method, used originally in dinoflagellates, to two new classes of algae, coccolithophorids and diatoms. This method measures the carbon accumulation inside the cells without altering the medium carbon chemistry or culture cell density. We found that the diatom Thalassiosira weissflogii [(Grunow) G. Fryxell & Hasle] and a calcifying strain of the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi [(Lohmann) W. W. Hay & H. P. Mohler] develop significant acid-labile C(i) pools. C(i) pools are measureable in cells cultured in media with 2-30 µmol/l CO2 (aq), corresponding to a medium pH of 8.6-7.9. The absolute C(i) pool was greater for the larger celled diatoms. For both algal classes, the C(i) pool became a negligible contributor to photosynthesis once CO2 (aq) exceeded 30 µmol/l. Combining the (14) C pulse-chase method and (14) C disequilibrium method enabled us to assess whether E. huxleyi and T. weissflogii exhibited thresholds for foregoing accumulation of DIC or reduced the reliance on bicarbonate uptake with increasing CO2 (aq) . We showed that the C(i) pool decreases with higher CO2 :HCO3 (-) uptake rates.

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Since marine phytoplankton play a vital role in stabilizing earth's climate by removing significant amount of atmospheric CO2, their responses to increasing CO2 levels are indeed vital to address. The responses of a natural phytoplankton community from the Qingdao coast (NW Yellow Sea, China) was studied under different CO2 levels in microcosms. HPLC pigment analysis revealed the presence of diatoms as a dominant microalgal group; however, members of chlorophytes, prasinophytes, cryptophytes and cyanophytes were also present. delta 13CPOM values indicated that the phytoplankton community probably utilized bicarbonate ions as dissolved inorganic carbon source through a carbon concentration mechanism (CCM) under low CO2 levels, and diffusive CO2 uptake increased upon the increase of external CO2 levels. Although, considerable increase in phytoplankton biomass was noticed in all CO2 treatments, CO2-induced effects were absent. Higher net nitrogen uptake under low CO2 levels could be related to the synthesis of CCM components. Flow cytometry analysis showed slight reduction in the abundance of Synechococcus and pico-eukaryotes under the high CO2 treatments. Diatoms did not show any negative impact in response to increasing CO2 levels; however, chlorophytes revealed a reverse tend. Heterotrophic bacterial count enhanced with increasing CO2 levels and indicated higher abundance of labile organic carbon. Thus, the present study indicates that any change in dissolved CO2 concentrations in this area may affect phytoplankton physiology and community structure and needs further long-term study.

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As anthropogenic climate change is an ongoing concern, scientific investigations on its impacts on coral reefs are increasing. Although impacts of combined ocean acidification (OA) and temperature stress (T) on reef-building scleractinian corals have been studied at the genus, species and population levels, there are little data available on how individual corals respond to combined OA and anomalous temperatures. In this study, we exposed individual colonies of Acropora digitifera, Montipora digitata and Porites cylindrica to four pCO2-temperature treatments including 400 µatm-28 °C, 400 µatm-31 °C, 1000 µatm-28 °C and 1000 µatm-31 °C for 26 days. Physiological parameters including calcification, protein content, maximum photosynthetic efficiency, Symbiodinium density, and chlorophyll content along with Symbiodinium type of each colony were examined. Along with intercolonial responses, responses of individual colonies versus pooled data to the treatments were investigated. The main results were: 1) responses to either OA or T or their combination were different between individual colonies when considering physiological functions; 2) tolerance to either OA or T was not synonymous with tolerance to the other parameter; 3) tolerance to both OA and T did not necessarily lead to tolerance of OA and T combined (OAT) at the same time; 4) OAT had negative, positive or no impacts on physiological functions of coral colonies; and 5) pooled data were not representative of responses of all individual colonies. Indeed, the pooled data obscured actual responses of individual colonies or presented a response that was not observed in any individual. From the results of this study we recommend improving experimental designs of studies investigating physiological responses of corals to climate change by complementing them with colony-specific examinations.

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The impact of acute altitude exposure on pulmonary function is variable. A large inter-individual variability in the changes in forced expiratory flows (FEFs) is reported with acute exposure to altitude, which is suggested to represent an interaction between several factors influencing bronchial tone such as changes in gas density, catecholamine stimulation, and mild interstitial edema. This study examined the association between FEF variability, acute mountain sickness (AMS) and various blood markers affecting bronchial tone (endothelin-1, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), catecholamines, angiotensin II) in 102 individuals rapidly transported to the South Pole (2835 m). The mean FEF between 25 and 75% (FEF25-75) and blood markers were recorded at sea level and after the second night at altitude. AMS was assessed using Lake Louise questionnaires. FEF25-75 increased by an average of 12% with changes ranging from -26 to +59% from sea level to altitude. On the second day, AMS incidence was 36% and was higher in individuals with increases in FEF25-75 (41 vs. 22%, P = 0.05). Ascent to altitude induced an increase in endothelin-1 levels, with greater levels observed in individuals with decreased FEF25-75. Epinephrine levels increased with ascent to altitude and the response was six times larger in individuals with decreased FEF25-75. Greater levels of endothelin-1 in individuals with decreased FEF25-75 suggest a response consistent with pulmonary hypertension and/or mild interstitial edema, while epinephrine may be upregulated in these individuals to clear lung fluid through stimulation of beta2-adrenergic receptors.

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Ocean acidification (OA) has important implications for the persistence of coral reef ecosystems, due to potentially negative effects on biomineralization. Many coral reefs are dynamic with respect to carbonate chemistry, and experience fluctuations in pCO2 that exceed OA projections for the near future. To understand the influence of dynamic pCO2 on an important reef calcifier, we tested the response of the crustose coralline alga Porolithon onkodes to oscillating pCO2. Individuals were exposed to ambient (400 µatm), high (660 µatm), or variable pCO2 (oscillating between 400/660 µatm) treatments for 14 days. To explore the potential for coralline acclimatization, we collected individuals from low and high pCO2 variability sites (upstream and downstream respectively) on a back reef characterized by unidirectional water flow in Moorea, French Polynesia. We quantified the effects of treatment on algal calcification by measuring the change in buoyant weight, and on algal metabolism by conducting sealed incubations to measure rates of photosynthesis and respiration. Net photosynthesis was higher in the ambient treatment than the variable treatment, regardless of habitat origin, and there was no effect on respiration or gross photosynthesis. Exposure to high pCO2 decreased P. onkodes calcification by >70%, regardless of the original habitat. In the variable treatment, corallines from the high variability habitat calcified 42% more than corallines from the low variability habitat. The significance of the original habitat for the coralline calcification response to variable, high pCO2 indicates that individuals existing in dynamic pCO2 habitats may be acclimatized to OA within the scope of in situ variability. These results highlight the importance of accounting for natural pCO2 variability in OA manipulations, and provide insight into the potential for plasticity in habitat and species-specific responses to changing ocean chemistry.

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Ocean acidification (OA) caused by excessive CO2 is a potential ecological threat to marine organisms. The impacts of OA on echinoderms are well-documented, but there has been a strong bias towards sea urchins, and limited information is available on sea cucumbers. This work examined the effect of medium-term (60 days) exposure to three pH levels (pH 8.06, 7.72, and 7.41, covering present and future pH variability) on the bioenergetic responses of the sea cucumber, Apostichopus japonicus, an ecologically and economically important holothurian in Asian coasts. Results showed that the measured specific growth rate linearly decreased with decreased pH, leading to a 0.42 %/day decrease at pH 7.41 compared with that at pH 8.06. The impacts of pH on physiological energetics were variable: measured energy consumption and defecation rates linearly decreased with decreased pH, whereas maintenance energy in calculated respiration and excretion were not significantly affected. No shift in energy allocation pattern was observed in A. japonicus upon exposure to pH 7.72 compared with pH 8.06. However, a significant shift in energy budget occurred upon exposure to pH 7.41, leading to decreased energy intake and increased percentage of energy that was lost in feces, thereby resulting in a significantly lowered allocation into somatic growth. These findings indicate that adult A. japonicus is resilient to the OA scenario at the end of the twenty-first century, but further acidification may negatively influence the grazing capability and growth, thereby influencing its ecological functioning as an "ecosystem engineer" and potentially harming its culture output.

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Sea cucumbers are dominant invertebrates in several ecosystems such as coral reefs, seagrass meadows and mangroves. As bioturbators, they have an important ecological role in making available calcium carbonate and nutrients to the rest of the community. However, due to their commercial value, they face overexploitation in the natural environment. On top of that, occurring ocean acidification could impact these organisms, considered sensitive as echinoderms are osmoconformers, high-magnesium calcite producers and have a low metabolism. As a first investigation of the impact of ocean acidification on sea cucumbers, we tested the impact of short-term (6 to 12 days) exposure to ocean acidification (seawater pH 7.7 and 7.4) on two sea cucumbers collected in SW Madagascar, Holothuria scabra, a high commercial value species living in the seagrass meadows, and H. parva, inhabiting the mangroves. The former lives in a habitat with moderate fluctuations of seawater chemistry (driven by day-night differences) while the second lives in a highly variable intertidal environment. In both species, pH of the coelomic fluid was significantly negatively affected by reduced seawater pH, with a pronounced extracellular acidosis in individuals maintained at pH 7.7 and 7.4. This acidosis was due to an increased dissolved inorganic carbon content and pCO2 of the coelomic fluid, indicating a limited diffusion of the CO2 towards the external medium. However, respiration and ammonium excretion rates were not affected. No evidence of accumulation of bicarbonate was observed to buffer the coelomic fluid pH. If this acidosis stays uncompensated for when facing long-term exposure, other processes could be affected in both species, eventually leading to impacts on their ecological role.

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Ocean acidification driven by rising levels of CO2 impairs calcification, threatening coral reef growth. Predicting how corals respond to CO2 requires a better understanding of how calcification is controlled. Here we show how spatial variations in the pH of the internal calcifying fluid (pHcf) in coral (Stylophora pistillata) colonies correlates with differential sensitivity of calcification to acidification. Coral apexes had the highest pHcf and experienced the smallest changes in pHcf in response to acidification. Lateral growth was associated with lower pHcf and greater changes with acidification. Calcification showed a pattern similar to pHcf, with lateral growth being more strongly affected by acidification than apical. Regulation of pHcf is therefore spatially variable within a coral and critical to determining the sensitivity of calcification to ocean acidification.

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Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

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The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

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The composition and abundance of algal pigments provide information on phytoplankton community characteristics such as photoacclimation, overall biomass and taxonomic composition. In particular, pigments play a major role in photoprotection and in the light-driven part of photosynthesis. Most phytoplankton pigments can be measured by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) techniques applied to filtered water samples. This method, as well as other laboratory analyses, is time consuming and therefore limits the number of samples that can be processed in a given time. In order to receive information on phytoplankton pigment composition with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, we have developed a method to assess pigment concentrations from continuous optical measurements. The method applies an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to remote-sensing reflectance data derived from ship-based hyperspectral underwater radiometry and from multispectral satellite data (using the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer - MERIS - Polymer product developed by Steinmetz et al., 2011, doi:10.1364/OE.19.009783) measured in the Atlantic Ocean. Subsequently we developed multiple linear regression models with measured (collocated) pigment concentrations as the response variable and EOF loadings as predictor variables. The model results show that surface concentrations of a suite of pigments and pigment groups can be well predicted from the ship-based reflectance measurements, even when only a multispectral resolution is chosen (i.e., eight bands, similar to those used by MERIS). Based on the MERIS reflectance data, concentrations of total and monovinyl chlorophyll a and the groups of photoprotective and photosynthetic carotenoids can be predicted with high quality. As a demonstration of the utility of the approach, the fitted model based on satellite reflectance data as input was applied to 1 month of MERIS Polymer data to predict the concentration of those pigment groups for the whole eastern tropical Atlantic area. Bootstrapping explorations of cross-validation error indicate that the method can produce reliable predictions with relatively small data sets (e.g., < 50 collocated values of reflectance and pigment concentration). The method allows for the derivation of time series from continuous reflectance data of various pigment groups at various regions, which can be used to study variability and change of phytoplankton composition and photophysiology.