8 resultados para State-space modeling
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
Marine mammals forage in dynamic environments characterized by variables that are continuously changing in relation to large-scale oceanographic processes. In the present study, behavioural states of satellite-tagged juvenile southern elephant seals (n = 16) from Marion Island were assessed for each reliable location, using variation in turning angle and speed in a state-space modelling framework. A mixed modelling approach was used to analyse the behavioural response of juvenile southern elephant seals to sea-surface temperature and proximity to frontal and bathymetric features. The findings emphasised the importance of frontal features as potentially rewarding areas for foraging juvenile southern elephant seals and provided further evidence of the importance of the area west of Marion Island for higher trophic-level predators. The importance of bathymetric features during the transit phase of juvenile southern elephant seal migrations indicates the use of these features as possible navigational cues.
Resumo:
The Aral Sea is located in an arid region with much sand and salt deposits in the surrounding barren open land. Hence, significant displacements of sediments into the lakebed by the action of wind, water, gravity, or snow are likely. The bathymetry of the lake was last observed in the 1960s, and within the last half century, the structure of the lakebed has changed. Based on satellite observations of the temporal changes of shoreline (Landsat optical remote sensing) and water level (multi-mission satellite altimetry) over more than one decade an updated bathymetric chart for the East Basin of the Aral Sea has been generated. During this time, the geometry of the shallow East Basin experienced strong fluctuations due to the occurrence of periods of drying and strong inflow. By the year 2014 the East Basin fell dry. The dynamic behavior of the basin allowed for estimating the lake's bathymetry from a series of satellite-based information. The river mouth made its impression in the present East Aral Sea, because its shrinking led to the inflow of much sediment into the lake's interior. In addition, salt deposits along the shorelines increased the corresponding elevation, a phenomenon that is more pronounced in the reduced lakebed because of increased salinity. It must be noted that height estimates from satellite altimetry were only possible down to a minimum elevation of 27 m above sea level due to a lack of reliable altimetry data over the largely reduced water surface. In order to construct a complete bathymetric chart of the lakebed of the East Aral Sea heights below 27 m were obtained solely from Landsat optical images following the SRB (Selected Region Boundary) approach as described by Singh et al. (2015).
The North Sea autumn spawning Herring (Clupea harengus L.) Spawning Component Abundance Index (SCAI)
Resumo:
The North Sea autumn-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) stock consists of a set of different spawning components. The dynamics of the entire stock have been well characterized, but although time-series of larval abundance indices are available for the individual components, study of the dynamics at the component level has historically been hampered by missing observations and high sampling noise. A simple state-space statistical model is developed that is robust to these problems, gives a good fit to the data, and proves capable of both handling and predicting missing observations well. Furthermore, the sum of the fitted abundance indices across all components proves an excellent proxy for the biomass of the total stock, even though the model utilizes information at the individual-component level. The Orkney-Shetland component appears to have recovered faster from historic depletion events than the other components, whereas the Downs component has been the slowest. These differences give rise to changes in stock composition, which are shown to vary widely within a relatively short time. The modelling framework provides a valuable tool for studying and monitoring the dynamics of the individual components of the North Sea herring stock.
Resumo:
Distribution, accumulation and diagenesis of surficial sediments in coastal and continental shelf systems follow complex chains of localized processes and form deposits of great spatial variability. Given the environmental and economic relevance of ocean margins, there is growing need for innovative geophysical exploration methods to characterize seafloor sediments by more than acoustic properties. A newly conceptualized benthic profiling and data processing approach based on controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) imaging permits to coevally quantify the magnetic susceptibility and the electric conductivity of shallow marine deposits. The two physical properties differ fundamentally insofar as magnetic susceptibility mostly assesses solid particle characteristics such as terrigenous or iron mineral content, redox state and contamination level, while electric conductivity primarily relates to the fluid-filled pore space and detects salinity, porosity and grain-size variations. We develop and validate a layered half-space inversion algorithm for submarine multifrequency CSEM with concentric sensor configuration. Guided by results of modeling, we modified a commercial land CSEM sensor for submarine application, which was mounted into a nonconductive and nonmagnetic bottom-towed sled. This benthic EM profiler Neridis II achieves 25 soundings/second at 3-4 knots over continuous profiles of up to hundred kilometers. Magnetic susceptibility is determined from the 75 Hz in-phase response (90% signal originates from the top 50 cm), while electric conductivity is derived from the 5 kHz out-of-phase (quadrature) component (90% signal from the top 92 cm). Exemplary survey data from the north-west Iberian margin underline the excellent sensitivity, functionality and robustness of the system in littoral (~0-50 m) and neritic (~50-300 m) environments. Susceptibility vs. porosity cross-plots successfully identify known lithofacies units and their transitions. All presently available data indicate an eminent potential of CSEM profiling for assessing the complex distribution of shallow marine surficial sediments and for revealing climatic, hydrodynamic, diagenetic and anthropogenic factors governing their formation.
Resumo:
The goal of our study is to determine accurate time series of geophysical Earth rotation excitations to learn more about global dynamic processes in the Earth system. For this purpose, we developed an adjustment model which allows to combine precise observations from space geodetic observation systems, such as Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Doppler Orbit determination and Radiopositioning Integrated on Satellite (DORIS), satellite altimetry and satellite gravimetry in order to separate geophysical excitation mechanisms of Earth rotation. Three polar motion time series are applied to derive the polar motion excitation functions (integral effect). Furthermore we use five time variable gravity field solutions from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to determine not only the integral mass effect but also the oceanic and hydrological mass effects by applying suitable filter techniques and a land-ocean mask. For comparison the integral mass effect is also derived from degree 2 potential coefficients that are estimated from SLR observations. The oceanic mass effect is also determined from sea level anomalies observed by satellite altimetry by reducing the steric sea level anomalies derived from temperature and salinity fields of the oceans. Due to the combination of all geodetic estimated excitations the weaknesses of the individual processing strategies can be reduced and the technique-specific strengths can be accounted for. The formal errors of the adjusted geodetic solutions are smaller than the RMS differences of the geophysical model solutions. The improved excitation time series can be used to improve the geophysical modeling.
Resumo:
Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly, making it vital to understand the importance of different types of sea ice for ice-dependent species such as polar bears Ursus maritimus. In this study we used GPS telemetry (25 polar bear tracks obtained in Svalbard, Norway, during spring) and high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sea-ice data to investigate fine-scale space use by female polar bears. Space use patterns differed according to reproductive state; females with cubs of the year (COYs) had smaller home ranges and used fast-ice areas more frequently than lone females. First-passage time (FPT) analysis revealed that females with COYs displayed significantly longer FPTs near (<10 km) glacier fronts than in other fast-ice areas; lone females also increased their FPTs in such areas, but they also frequently used drifting pack ice. These results clearly demonstrate the importance of fast-ice areas, in particular close to glacier fronts, especially for females with COYs. Access to abundant and predictable prey (ringed seal pups), energy conservation and reluctance to cross large open water areas are possible reasons for the observed patterns. However, glacier fronts are retracting in Svalbard, and declines in land-fast ice have been notable over the past decade. The eventual disappearance of these important habitats might become critical for the survival of polar bear cubs in Svalbard and other regions with similar habitat characteristics. Given the relatively small size of many fast-ice areas in Svalbard, the results observed in this study would not have been revealed using less accurate location data or lower-resolution sea-ice data.
Resumo:
In the framework of the global energy balance, the radiative energy exchanges between Sun, Earth and space are now accurately quantified from new satellite missions. Much less is known about the magnitude of the energy flows within the climate system and at the Earth surface, which cannot be directly measured by satellites. In addition to satellite observations, here we make extensive use of the growing number of surface observations to constrain the global energy balance not only from space, but also from the surface. We combine these observations with the latest modeling efforts performed for the 5th IPCC assessment report to infer best estimates for the global mean surface radiative components. Our analyses favor global mean downward surface solar and thermal radiation values near 185 and 342 Wm**-2, respectively, which are most compatible with surface observations. Combined with an estimated surface absorbed solar radiation and thermal emission of 161 Wm**-2 and 397 Wm**-2, respectively, this leaves 106 Wm**-2 of surface net radiation available for distribution amongst the non-radiative surface energy balance components. The climate models overestimate the downward solar and underestimate the downward thermal radiation, thereby simulating nevertheless an adequate global mean surface net radiation by error compensation. This also suggests that, globally, the simulated surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, around 20 and 85 Wm**-2 on average, state realistic values. The findings of this study are compiled into a new global energy balance diagram, which may be able to reconcile currently disputed inconsistencies between energy and water cycle estimates.
Resumo:
Drillhole-determined sea-ice thickness was compared with values derived remotely using a portable small-offset loop-loop steady state electromagnetic (EM) induction device during expeditions to Fram Strait and the Siberian Arctic, under typical winter and summer conditions. Simple empirical transformation equations are derived to convert measured apparent conductivity into ice thickness. Despite the extreme seasonal differences in sea-ice properties as revealed by ice core analysis, the transformation equations vary little for winter and summer. Thus, the EM induction technique operated on the ice surface in the horizontal dipole mode yields accurate results within 5 to 10% of the drillhole determined thickness over level ice in both seasons. The robustness of the induction method with respect to seasonal extremes is attributed to the low salinity of brine or meltwater filling the extensive pore space in summer. Thus, the average bulk ice conductivity for summer multiyear sea ice derived according to Archie's law amounts to 23 mS/m compared to 3 mS/m for winter conditions. These mean conductivities cause only minor differences in the EM response, as is shown by means of 1-D modeling. However, under summer conditions the range of ice conductivities is wider. Along with the widespread occurrence of surface melt ponds and freshwater lenses underneath the ice, this causes greater scatter in the apparent conductivity/ice thickness relation. This can result in higher deviations between EM-derived and drillhole determined thicknesses in summer than in winter.