A new modern analogue reference dataset and its application to the 430-kyr pollen record from Lake Biwa

This study presents a newly compiled dataset of modern pollen and climate data from 798 sites across Japan and the Russian Far East. This comprehensive reference dataset combined with the modern analogue technique (MAT) provides a powerful tool for pollen-based reconstruction of the Quaternary Northwest Pacific climate. Pollen-derived reconstruction of the modern climate at the reference pollen-sampling sites matches well with the estimated modern climate values (R2 values vary between 0.79 and 0.95, and RMSEP values vary between 5.8 and 9.7% of the modern climatic range for all nine tested variables). The successful testing of the method encourages its application to the fossil pollen records. We used a coarse-resolution pollen record from Lake Biwa to reconstruct glacial-interglacial climate dynamics in central Japan since ~438 kyr and compared it to the earlier reconstruction based on a less representative reference dataset. The current and earlier results consistently demonstrate that the coldest glacial intervals experienced pronounced cooling in winter and moderate cooling in summer, supporting the growth of cool mixed forest (COMX) where warm mixed forest (WAMX) predominates today. During the last glacial, maximum (~24 kyr BP) mean temperatures of the coldest (MTCO) and warmest (MTWA) month were about -13 °C (RMSEP = 2.34 °C) and 21 °C (RMSEP = 1.66 °C) respectively, and annual precipitation (PANN) was about 800 mm (RMSEP = 158.06 mm). During the thermal optimums of the interglacial intervals, the temperatures of the coldest and warmest month were above 0 °C and 25 °C respectively, leading to the reconstruction of WAMX and temperate conifer forest (TECO). Although both these vegetation types grow in the southern part of Japan today, WAMX requires warmer space. The presence of WAMX during marine isotope stages (MIS) 11 and 1, and its absence during MIS 9 and MIS 5 contradict the marine isotope and Antarctic ice records, suggesting that the latter two interglacials were the warmest of the last 800 kyr. The apparent contradiction allows at least three different explanations including low temporal resolution of the pollen record; different trends in CO2 concentrations during 'short' and 'long' interglacials; and regional climate variability and non-linear response of different regions to the global forcing. More definitive conclusions will be possible on the basis of forthcoming high-resolution pollen records from central Japan.

Fossil pollen record of composite sediment core TMD from Tso Moriri, analysis of modern surface pollen samples, mean annual precipitation reconstruction, and digitisation and recalibration of different discussed palaeoclimate proxy records

This paper presents a new fossil pollen record from Tso Moriri (32°54'N, 78°19'E, 4512 m a.s.l.) and seeks to reconstruct changes in mean annual precipitation (MAP) during the last 12,000 years. This high-alpine lake occupies an area of 140 km**2 in a glacial-tectonic valley in the northwestern Himalaya. The region has a cold climate, with a MAP <300 mm, and open vegetation. The hydrology is controlled by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), but winter westerly-associated precipitation also affects the regional water balance. Results indicate that precipitation levels varied significantly during the Holocene. After a rapid increase in MAP, a phase of maximum humidity was reached between ca. 11 to 9.6 cal ka BP, followed by a gradual decline in MAP. This trend parallels the reduction in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Comparison of different palaeoclimate proxy records reveal evidence for a stronger Holocene decrease in precipitation in the northern versus the southern parts of the ISM domain. The long-term trend of ISM weakening is overlaid with several short periods of greater dryness, which are broadly synchronous with the North Atlantic cold spells, suggesting reduced amounts of westerly-associated winter precipitation. Compared to the mid and late Holocene, it appears that westerlies had a greater influence on the western parts of the ISM domain during the early Holocene. During this period, the westerly-associated summer precipitation belt was positioned at Mediterranean latitudes and amplified the ISM-derived precipitation. The Tso Moriri pollen record and moisture reconstructions also suggest that changes in climatic conditions affected the ancient Harappan Civilisation, which flourished in the greater Indus Valley from approximately 5.2 to 3 cal ka BP. The prolonged Holocene trend towards aridity, punctuated by an interval of increased dryness (between ca. 4.5 to 4.3 cal ka BP), may have pushed the Mature Harappan urban settlements (between ca. 4.5 to 3.9 cal ka BP) to develop more efficient agricultural practices to deal with the increasingly acute water shortages. The amplified aridity associated with North Atlantic cooling between ca. 4 to 3.6 and around 3.2 cal ka BP further hindered local agriculture, possibly causing the deurbanisation that occurred from ca. 3.9 cal ka BP and eventual collapse of the Harappan Civilisation between ca. 3.5 to 3 cal ka BP.

Climate and total tree cover reconstructions based on the 43.7-kyr fossil pollen record from Khoe (NW Sakhalin Island) and modern climate variables of 236 modern surface pollen sampling sites

A late Quaternary pollen record from northern Sakhalin Island (51.34°N, 142.14°E, 15 m a.s.l.) spanning the last 43.7 ka was used to reconstruct regional climate dynamics and vegetation distribution by using the modern analogue technique (MAT). The long-term trends of the reconstructed mean annual temperature (TANN) and precipitation (PANN), and total tree cover are generally in line with key palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region and the Asian monsoon domain. TANN largely follows the fluctuations in solar summer insolation at 55°N. During Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, TANN and PANN were on average 0.2 °C and 700 mm, respectively, thus very similar to late Holocene/modern conditions. Full glacial climate deterioration (TANN = -3.3 °C, PANN = 550 mm) was relatively weak as suggested by the MAT-inferred average climate parameters and tree cover densities. However, error ranges of the climate reconstructions during this interval are relatively large and the last glacial environments in northern Sakhalin could be much colder and drier than suggested by the weighted average values. An anti-phase relationship between mean temperature of the coldest (MTCO) and warmest (MTWA) month is documented during the last glacial period, i.e. MIS 2 and 3, suggesting more continental climate due to sea levels that were lower than present. Warmest and wettest climate conditions have prevailed since the end of the last glaciation with an optimum (TANN = 1.5 °C, PANN = 800 mm) in the middle Holocene interval (ca 8.7-5.2 cal. ka BP). This lags behind the solar insolation peak during the early Holocene. We propose that this is due to continuous Holocene sea level transgression and regional influence of the Tsushima Warm Current, which reached maximum intensity during the middle Holocene. Several short-term climate oscillations are suggested by our reconstruction results and correspond to Northern Hemisphere Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events, the Bølling-Allerød and the Younger Dryas. The most prominent fluctuation is registered during Heinrich 4 event, which is marked by noticeably colder and drier conditions and the spread of herbaceous taxa.