48 resultados para Random Coefficient Autoregressive Model{ RCAR (1)}

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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High resolution stratigraphy based on oxygen isotope ratios of the planktonic foraminifers Neogloboquadrina dutertrei (d'Orbigny), Globigeriniodes ruber (d'Orbigny), and Globigerina bulloides (d'Orbigny), magnetic susceptibility, and calcium carbonate content covers the sedimentary record of ODP Hole 728A drilled on the Oman Margin from approximately 10 k.y. to 525 k.y., comprising isotopic stages 1-13. Below stage 13 isotopic stage boundaries cannot be defined with certainty in our data. Sediment accumulation rates were calculated from the isotopic record of N. dutertrei by matching it with the age model SPECMAP curve. During the glacial periods sediment accumulation rates were higher than during the interglacial periods, reflecting increased input from the shelf during low-stands of sea level and increased eolian input. Periodograms for the past 524 k.y. on oxygen isotope records of N. dutertrei, G. ruber, and G. bulloides, on calcium carbonate content, magnetic susceptibility, and on a foraminiferal fragmentation record show powers matching the Milankovitch periodicities. High powers are concentrated around 103 k.y. In the spectra of oxygen isotope ratios of N. dutertrei, magnetic susceptibility, and foraminiferal fragmentation these are significant at the 80% confidence level with respect to a first order autoregressive model. Power concentrations near 43 k.y., matching obliquity, are present but subdued in all spectra. Power concentrations near 23 k.y., matching precession, are significant in the spectra of the oxygen isotope record of N. dutertrei, magnetic susceptibility, and calcium carbonate content record. Fragmentation of planktonic foraminifers increased during the interglacial periods. This is attributed to dissolution of the tests in an expanded oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), where undersaturation of calcium carbonate is caused by enhanced production in the euphotic zone, which would suggest stronger monsoonal induced upwelling during interglacial periods. Extension of the OMZ could also be increased by outflow of low oxygen marginal basin bottom water.

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This paper presents the results of a combined study, using cosmogenic 36Cl exposure dating and terrestrial digital photogrammetry, of the Palliser Rockslide located in the southeastern Canadian Rocky Mountains. This site is particularly well-suited to demonstrate how this multi-disciplinary approach can be used to differentiate distinct rocksliding events, estimate their volume, and establish their chronology and recurrence interval. Observations suggest that rocksliding has been ongoing since the late Pleistocene deglaciation. Two major rockslide events have been dated at 10.0 ± 1.2 kyr and 7.7 ± 0.8 kyr before present, with failure volumes of 40 Mm3 and 8 Mm3, respectively. The results have important implications concerning our understanding of the temporal distribution of paraglacial rockslides and rock avalanches; they provide a better understanding of the volumes and failure mechanisms of recurrent failure events; and they represent the first absolute ages of a prehistoric high magnitude event in the Canadian Rocky Mountains.

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The number of well-dated pollen diagrams in Europe has increased considerably over the last 30 years and many of them have been submitted to the European Pollen Database (EPD). This allows for the construction of increasingly precise maps of Holocene vegetation change across the continent. Chronological information in the EPD has been expressed in uncalibrated radiocarbon years, and most chronologies to date are based on this time scale. Here we present new chronologies for most of the datasets stored in the EPD based on calibrated radiocarbon years. Age information associated with pollen diagrams is often derived from the pollen stratigraphy itself or from other sedimentological information. We reviewed these chronological tie points and assigned uncertainties to them. The steps taken to generate the new chronologies are described and the rationale for a new classification system for age uncertainties is introduced. The resulting chronologies are fit for most continental-scale questions. They may not provide the best age model for particular sites, but may be viewed as general purpose chronologies. Taxonomic particularities of the data stored in the EPD are explained. An example is given of how the database can be queried to select samples with appropriate age control as well as the suitable taxonomic level to answer a specific research question.

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Despite its importance in the global climate system, age-calibrated marine geologic records reflecting the evolution of glacial cycles through the Pleistocene are largely absent from the central Arctic Ocean. This is especially true for sediments older than 200 ka. Three sites cored during the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program's Expedition 302, the Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX), provide a 27 m continuous sedimentary section from the Lomonosov Ridge in the central Arctic Ocean. Two key biostratigraphic datums and constraints from the magnetic inclination data are used to anchor the chronology of these sediments back to the base of the Cobb Mountain subchron (1215 ka). Beyond 1215 ka, two best fitting geomagnetic models are used to investigate the nature of cyclostratigraphic change. Within this chronology we show that bulk and mineral magnetic properties of the sediments vary on predicted Milankovitch frequencies. These cyclic variations record "glacial" and "interglacial" modes of sediment deposition on the Lomonosov Ridge as evident in studies of ice-rafted debris and stable isotopic and faunal assemblages for the last two glacial cycles and were used to tune the age model. Potential errors, which largely arise from uncertainties in the nature of downhole paleomagnetic variability, and the choice of a tuning target are handled by defining an error envelope that is based on the best fitting cyclostratigraphic and geomagnetic solutions.

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Was the spread of agropastoralism from the Fertile Crescent throughout Europe influenced by rapid climatic shifts? We here generate idealized climate events using palaeoclimate records. In a mathematical model of regional sociocultural development, these events disturb the subsistence base of simulated forager and farmer societies. We evaluate the regional simulated transition timings and durations against a published large set of radiocarbon dates for western Eurasia; the model is able to realistically hindcast much of the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of regional Neolithic transitions. Our study shows that the inclusion of climate events improves the simulation of typical lags between cultural complexes, but that the overall difference to a model without climate events is not significant. Climate events may not have been as important for early sociocultural dynamics as endogenous factors.

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How the micro-scale fabric of clay-rich mudstone evolves during consolidation in early burial is critical to how they are interpreted in the deeper portions of sedimentary basins. Core samples from the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 308, Ursa Basin, Gulf of Mexico, covering seafloor to 600 meters below sea floor (mbsf) are ideal for studying the micro-scale fabric of mudstones. Mudstones of consistent composition and grain size decrease in porosity from 80% at the seafloor to 37% at 600 mbsf. Argon-ion milling produces flat surfaces to image this pore evolution over a vertical effective stress range of 0.25 (71 mbsf) to 4.05 MPa (597 mbsf). With increasing burial, pores become elongated, mean pore size decreases, and there is preferential loss of the largest pores. There is a small increase in clay mineral preferred orientation as recorded by high resolution X-ray goniometry with burial.

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Farming and herding were introduced to Europe from the Near East and Anatolia; there are, however, considerable arguments about the mechanisms of this transition. Were it the people who moved and either outplaced, or admixed with, the indigenous hunter-gatherer groups? Or was it material and information that moved---the Neolithic Package---consisting of domesticated plants and animals and the knowledge of their use? The latter process is commonly referred to as cultural diffusion and the former as demic diffusion. Despite continuous and partly combined efforts by archaeologists, anthropologists, linguists, palaeontologists and geneticists, a final resolution of the debate has not yet been reached. In the present contribution we interpret results from the Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). GLUES is a mathematical model for regional sociocultural development, embedded in the geoenvironmental context, during the Holocene. We demonstrate that the model is able to realistically hindcast the expansion speed and the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of the transition to agropastoralism in western Eurasia. In contrast to models that do not resolve endogenous sociocultural dynamics, our model describes and explains how and why the Neolithic advanced in stages. We uncouple the mechanisms of migration and information exchange and also of migration and the spread of agropastoralism. We find that: (1) An indigenous form of agropastoralism could well have arisen in certain Mediterranean landscapes, but not in Northern and Central Europe, where it depended on imported technology and material. (2) Both demic diffusion by migration and cultural diffusion by trade may explain the western European transition equally well. (3) Migrating farmers apparently contribute less than local adopters to the establishment of agropastoralism. Our study thus underlines the importance of adoption of introduced technologies and economies by resident foragers.

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High-latitude ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle and in regulating the climate system and are presently undergoing rapid environmental change. Accurate land cover data sets are required to both document these changes as well as to provide land-surface information for benchmarking and initializing Earth system models. Earth system models also require specific land cover classification systems based on plant functional types (PFTs), rather than species or ecosystems, and so post-processing of existing land cover data is often required. This study compares over Siberia, multiple land cover data sets against one another and with auxiliary data to identify key uncertainties that contribute to variability in PFT classifications that would introduce errors in Earth system modeling. Land cover classification systems from GLC 2000, GlobCover 2005 and 2009, and MODIS collections 5 and 5.1 are first aggregated to a common legend, and then compared to high-resolution land cover classification systems, vegetation continuous fields (MODIS VCFs) and satellite-derived tree heights (to discriminate against sparse, shrub, and forest vegetation). The GlobCover data set, with a lower threshold for tree cover and taller tree heights and a better spatial resolution, tends to have better distributions of tree cover compared to high-resolution data. It has therefore been chosen to build new PFT maps for the ORCHIDEE land surface model at 1 km scale. Compared to the original PFT data set, the new PFT maps based on GlobCover 2005 and an updated cross-walking approach mainly differ in the characterization of forests and degree of tree cover. The partition of grasslands and bare soils now appears more realistic compared with ground truth data. This new vegetation map provides a framework for further development of new PFTs in the ORCHIDEE model like shrubs, lichens and mosses, to represent the water and carbon cycles in northern latitudes better. Updated land cover data sets are critical for improving and maintaining the relevance of Earth system models for assessing climate and human impacts on biogeochemistry and biophysics.

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Metasediments in the three early Palaeozoic Ross orogenic terranes in northern Victoria Land and Oates Land (Antarctica) are geochemically classified as immature litharenites to wackes and moderately mature shales. Highly mature lithotypes with Chemical Index of Weathering values of >=95 are typically absent. Geochemical and Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd isotope results indicate that the turbiditic metasediments of the Cambro-Ordovician Robertson Bay Group in the eastern Robertson Bay Terrane represent a very homogeneous series lacking significant compositional variations. Major variations are only found in chemical parameters which reflect differences in degree of chemical weathering of their protoliths and in mechanical sorting of the detritus. Geochemical data, 87Sr/ 86Sr t=490 Ma ratios of 0.7120 - 0.7174, epsilonNd, t=490 Ma values of -7.6 to -10.3 and single-stage Nd-model ages of 1.7 - 1.9 Ga are indicative of an origin from a chemically evolved crustal source of on average late Palaeoproterozoic formation age. There is no evidence for significant sedimentary infill from primitive "ophiolitic" sources. Metasediments of the Middle Cambrian Molar Formation (Bowers Terrane) are compositionally strongly heterogeneous. Their major and trace element data and Sm-Nd isotope data (epsilonNd, t=500 Ma values of -14.3 to -1.2 and single-stage Nd-model ages of 1.7 - 2.1 Ga) can be explained by mixing of sedimentary input from an evolved crustal source of at least early Palaeoproterozoic formation age and from a primitive basaltic source. The chemical heterogeneity of metasediments from the Wilson Terrane is largely inherited from compositional variations of their precursor rocks as indicated by the Ni vs TiO2 diagram. Single-stage Nd-model ages of 1.6 -2.2 Ga for samples from more western inboard areas of the Wilson Terrane (epsilonNd, t=510 Ma -7.0 to -14.3) indicate a relatively high proportion of material derived from a crustal source with on average early Palaeoproterozoic formation age. Metasedimentary series in an eastern, more outboard position (epsilonNd, t=510 Ma -5.4 to -10.0; single-stage Nd model ages 1.4 - 1.9) on the contrary document stronger influence of a more primitive source with younger formation ages. The chemical and isotopic characteristics of metasediments from the Bowers and Wilson terranes can be explained by variable contributions from two contrasting sources: a cratonic continental crust similar to the Antarctic Shield exposed in Georg V Land and Terre Adélie some hundred kilometers west of the study area and a primitive basaltic source probably represented by the Cambrian island-arc of the Bowers Terrane. While the data for metasediments of the Robertson Bay Terrane are also compatible with an origin from an Antarctic-Shield-type source, there is no direct evidence from their geochemistry or isotope geochemistry for an island-arc component in these series.

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An emerging approach to downscaling the projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to scales relevant for basin hydrology is to use output of GCMs to force higher-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs). With spatial resolution often in the tens of kilometers, however, even RCM output will likely fail to resolve local topography that may be climatically significant in high-relief basins. Here we develop and apply an approach for downscaling RCM output using local topographic lapse rates (empirically-estimated spatially and seasonally variable changes in climate variables with elevation). We calculate monthly local topographic lapse rates from the 800-m Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset, which is based on regressions of observed climate against topographic variables. We then use these lapse rates to elevationally correct two sources of regional climate-model output: (1) the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), a retrospective dataset produced from a regional forecasting model constrained by observations, and (2) a range of baseline climate scenarios from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), which is produced by a series of RCMs driven by GCMs. By running a calibrated and validated hydrologic model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), using observed station data and elevationally-adjusted NARR and NARCCAP output, we are able to estimate the sensitivity of hydrologic modeling to the source of the input climate data. Topographic correction of regional climate-model data is a promising method for modeling the hydrology of mountainous basins for which no weather station datasets are available or for simulating hydrology under past or future climates.

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A number of studies have shown that methanogens are active in the presence of sulfate under some conditions. This phenomenon is especially exemplified in carbonate sediments of the southern Australian continental margin. Three sites cored during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 182 in the Great Australian Bight have high concentrations of microbially-generated methane and hydrogen sulfide throughout almost 500 m of sediments. In these cores, the sulfate-reducing and methanogenic zones overlap completely; that is, the usual sulfate-methane transition zone is absent. Amino acid racemization data show that the gassy sediments consist of younger carbonates than the low-gas sites. High concentrations of the reduced gases also occur in two ODP sites on the margin of the Bahamas platform, both of which have similar sedimentary conditions to those of the high-gas sites of Leg 182. Co-generation of these reduced gases results from an unusual combination of conditions, including: (1) a thick Quaternary sequence of iron-poor carbonate sediments, (2) a sub-seafloor brine, and (3) moderate amounts of organic carbon. The probable explanation for the co-generation of hydrogen sulfide and methane in all these sites, as well as in other reported environments, is that methanogens are utilizing non-competitive substrates to produce methane within the sulfate-reducing zone. Taken together, these results form the basis of a new model for sulfate reduction and methanogenesis in marine sediments. The biogeochemical end-members of the model are: (1) minimal sulfate reduction, (2) complete sulfate reduction followed by methanogenesis, and (3) overlapping sulfate reduction and methanogenesis with no transition zone.