Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Major cellular and physiological impacts of ocean acidification on a reef building coral

As atmospheric levels of CO2 increase, reef-building corals are under greater stress from both increased sea surface temperatures and declining sea water pH. To date, most studies have focused on either coral bleaching due to warming oceans or declining calcification due to decreasing oceanic carbonate ion concentrations. Here, through the use of physiology measurements and cDNA microarrays, we show that changes in pH and ocean chemistry consistent with two scenarios put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) drive major changes in gene expression, respiration, photosynthesis and symbiosis of the coral, Acropora millepora, before affects on biomineralisation are apparent at the phenotype level. Under high CO2 conditions corals at the phenotype level lost over half their Symbiodinium populations, and had a decrease in both photosynthesis and respiration. Changes in gene expression were consistent with metabolic suppression, an increase in oxidative stress, apoptosis and symbiont loss. Other expression patterns demonstrate upregulation of membrane transporters, as well as the regulation of genes involved in membrane cytoskeletal interactions and cytoskeletal remodeling. These widespread changes in gene expression emphasize the need to expand future studies of ocean acidification to include a wider spectrum of cellular processes, many of which may occur before impacts on calcification.

The photo-physiological response of a model cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosis to CO2-induced acidification at the cellular level

We measured the relationship between CO2-induced seawater acidification, photo-physiological performance and intracellular pH (pHi) in a model cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosis - the sea anemone Aiptasia sp. -under ambient (289.94 ± 12.54 µatm), intermediate (687.40 ± 25.10 µatm) and high (1459.92 ± 65.51 µatm) CO2 conditions. These treatments represented current CO2 levels, in addition to CO2 stabilisation scenarios IV and VI provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Anemones were exposed to each treatment for two months and sampled at regular intervals. At each time-point we measured a series of physiological responses: maximum dark-adapted fluorescent yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), gross photosynthetic rate, respiration rate, symbiont population density, and light-adapted pHi of both the dinoflagellate symbiont and isolated host anemone cell. We observed increases in all but one photo-physiological parameter (Pgross:R ratio). At the cellular level, increases in light-adapted symbiont pHi were observed under both intermediate and high CO2 treatments, relative to control conditions (pHi 7.35 and 7.46 versus pHi 7.25, respectively). The response of light-adapted host pHi was more complex, however, with no change observed under the intermediate CO2 treatment, but a 0.3 pH-unit increase under the high CO2 treatment (pHi 7.19 and 7.48, respectively). This difference is likely a result of a disproportionate increase in photosynthesis relative to respiration at the higher CO2 concentration. Our results suggest that, rather than causing cellular acidosis, the addition of CO2 will enhance photosynthetic performance, enabling both the symbiont and host cell to withstand predicted ocean acidification scenarios.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, clearance rates, respiration rates, condition index and cellular turnover (RNA: DNA) of Juvenile King Scallop, Pecten maximus in a laboratory experiment

The decline in ocean water pH and changes in carbonate saturation states through anthropogenically mediated increases in atmospheric CO2 levels may pose a hazard to marine organisms. This may be particularly acute for those species reliant on calcareous structures like shells and exoskeletons. This is of particular concern in the case of valuable commercially exploited species such as the king scallop, Pecten maximus. In this study we investigated the effects on oxygen consumption, clearance rates and cellular turnover in juvenile P. maximus following 3 months laboratory exposure to four pCO2 treatments (290, 380, 750 and 1140 µatm). None of the exposure levels were found to have significant effect on the clearance rates, respiration rates, condition index or cellular turnover (RNA: DNA) of individuals. While it is clear that some life stages of marine bivalves appear susceptible to future levels of ocean acidification, particularly under food limiting conditions, the results from this study suggest that where food is in abundance, bivalves like juvenile P. maximus may display a tolerance to limited changes in seawater chemistry.

Phytoplankton calcification as an effective mechanism to alleviate cellular calcium poisoning

Marine phytoplankton has developed the remarkable ability to tightly regulate the concentration of free calcium ions in the intracellular cytosol at a level of ~ 0.1 µmol /l in the presence of seawater Ca2+ concentrations of 10 mmol/1. The low cytosolic calcium ion concentration is of utmost importance for proper cell signalling function. While the regulatory mechanisms responsible for the tight control of intracellular Ca2+ concentration are not completely understood, phytoplankton taxonomic groups appear to have evolved different strategies, which may affect their ability to cope with changes in seawater Ca2+ concentrations in their environment on geological time scales. For example, the Cretaceous (145 to 66 Ma ago), an era known for the high abundance of coccolithophores and the production of enormous calcium carbonate deposits, exhibited seawater calcium concentrations up to four times present-day levels. We show that calcifying coccolithophore species (Emiliania huxleyi, Gephyrocapsa oceanica and Coccolithus braarudii) are able to maintain their relative fitness (in terms of growth rate and photosynthesis) at simulated Cretaceous seawater calcium concentrations, whereas these rates are severely reduced under these conditions in some non-calcareous phytoplankton species (Chaetoceros sp., Ceratoneis closterium and Heterosigma akashiwo). Most notably, this also applies to a non-calcifying strain of E. huxleyi which displays a calcium-sensitivity similar to the non-calcareous species. We hypothesize that the process of calcification in coccolithophores provides an efficient mechanism to alleviate cellular calcium poisoning and thereby offered a potential key evolutionary advantage, responsible for the proliferation of coccolithophores during times of high seawater calcium concentrations. The exact function of calcification and the reason behind the highly-ornate physical structures of coccoliths remain elusive.

Effects of seawater pCO2 and temperature on shell growth, shell stability, condition and cellular stress of Western Baltic Sea Mytilus edulis (L.) and Arctica islandica (L.)

Acidification of the World's oceans may directly impact reproduction, performance and shell formation of marine calcifying organisms. In addition, since shell production is costly and stress in general draws on an organism's energy budget, shell growth and stability of bivalves should indirectly be affected by environmental stress. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a combination of warming and acidification leads to increased physiological stress (lipofuscin accumulation and mortality) and affects the performance [shell growth, shell breaking force, condition index (Ci)] of young Mytilus edulis and Arctica islandica from the Baltic Sea. We cultured the bivalves in a fully-crossed 2-factorial experimental setup (seawater (sw) pCO2 levels "low", "medium" and "high" for both species, temperature levels 7.5, 10, 16, 20 and 25 °C for M. edulis and 7.5, 10 and 16 °C for A. islandica) for 13 weeks in summer. Mytilus edulis and A. islandica appeared to tolerate wide ranges of sw temperature and pCO2. Lipofuscin accumulation of M. edulis increased with temperature while the Ci decreased, but shell growth of the mussels only sharply decreased while its mortality increased between 20 and 25 °C. In A. islandica, lipofuscin accumulation increased with temperature, whereas the Ci, shell growth and shell breaking force decreased. The pCO2 treatment had only marginal effects on the measured parameters of both bivalve species. Shell growth of both bivalve species was not impaired by under-saturation of the sea water with respect to aragonite and calcite. Furthermore, independently of water temperatures shell breaking force of both species and shell growth of A. islandica remained unaffected by the applied elevated sw pCO2 for several months. Only at the highest temperature (25 °C), growth arrest of M. edulis was recorded at the high sw pCO2 treatment and the Ci of M. edulis was slightly higher at the medium sw pCO2 treatment than at the low and high sw pCO2 treatments. The only effect of elevated sw pCO2 on A. islandica was an increase in lipofuscin accumulation at the high sw pCO2 treatment compared to the medium sw pCO2 treatment. Our results show that, despite this robustness, growth of both M. edulis and A. islandica can be reduced if sw temperatures remain high for several weeks in summer. As large body size constitutes an escape from crab and sea star predation, this can make bivalves presumably more vulnerable to predation with possible negative consequences on population growth. In M. edulis, but not in A. islandica, this effect is amplified by elevated sw pCO2. We follow that combined effects of elevated sw pCO2 and ocean warming might cause shifts in future Western Baltic Sea community structures and ecosystem services; however, only if predators or other interacting species do not suffer as strong from these stressors.