Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Paleoceanography of sediment cores SO202-27-6 and MD01-2416

The glacial-to-Holocene evolution of subarctic Pacific surface water stratification and silicic acid (Si) dynamics is investigated based on new combined diatom oxygen (d18Odiat) and silicon (d30Sidiat) isotope records, along with new biogenic opal, subsurface foraminiferal d18O, alkenone-based sea surface temperature, sea ice, diatom, and core logging data from the NE Pacific. Our results suggest that d18Odiat values are primarily influenced by changes in freshwater discharge from the Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS), while corresponding d30Sidiat are primarily influenced by changes in Si supply to surface waters. Our data indicate enhanced glacial to mid Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) NE Pacific surface water stratification, generally limiting the Si supply to surface waters. However, we suggest that an increase in Si supply during early HS1, when surface waters were still stratified, is linked to increased North Pacific Intermediate Water formation. The coincidence between fresh surface waters during HS1 and enhanced ice-rafted debris sedimentation in the North Atlantic indicates a close link between CIS and Laurentide Ice Sheet dynamics and a dominant atmospheric control on CIS deglaciation. The Bølling/Allerød (B/A) is characterized by destratification in the subarctic Pacific and an increased supply of saline, Si-rich waters to surface waters. This change toward increased convection occurred prior to the Bølling warming and is likely triggered by a switch to sea ice-free conditions during late HS1. Our results furthermore indicate a decreased efficiency of the biological pump during late HS1 and the B/A (possibly also the Younger Dryas), suggesting that the subarctic Pacific has then been a source region of atmospheric CO2.

Probability sampling protocol of classification maps from spaceborne/airborne image

To deliver sample estimates provided with the necessary probability foundation to permit generalization from the sample data subset to the whole target population being sampled, probability sampling strategies are required to satisfy three necessary not sufficient conditions: (i) All inclusion probabilities be greater than zero in the target population to be sampled. If some sampling units have an inclusion probability of zero, then a map accuracy assessment does not represent the entire target region depicted in the map to be assessed. (ii) The inclusion probabilities must be: (a) knowable for nonsampled units and (b) known for those units selected in the sample: since the inclusion probability determines the weight attached to each sampling unit in the accuracy estimation formulas, if the inclusion probabilities are unknown, so are the estimation weights. This original work presents a novel (to the best of these authors' knowledge, the first) probability sampling protocol for quality assessment and comparison of thematic maps generated from spaceborne/airborne Very High Resolution (VHR) images, where: (I) an original Categorical Variable Pair Similarity Index (CVPSI, proposed in two different formulations) is estimated as a fuzzy degree of match between a reference and a test semantic vocabulary, which may not coincide, and (II) both symbolic pixel-based thematic quality indicators (TQIs) and sub-symbolic object-based spatial quality indicators (SQIs) are estimated with a degree of uncertainty in measurement in compliance with the well-known Quality Assurance Framework for Earth Observation (QA4EO) guidelines. Like a decision-tree, any protocol (guidelines for best practice) comprises a set of rules, equivalent to structural knowledge, and an order of presentation of the rule set, known as procedural knowledge. The combination of these two levels of knowledge makes an original protocol worth more than the sum of its parts. The several degrees of novelty of the proposed probability sampling protocol are highlighted in this paper, at the levels of understanding of both structural and procedural knowledge, in comparison with related multi-disciplinary works selected from the existing literature. In the experimental session the proposed protocol is tested for accuracy validation of preliminary classification maps automatically generated by the Satellite Image Automatic MapperT (SIAMT) software product from two WorldView-2 images and one QuickBird-2 image provided by DigitalGlobe for testing purposes. In these experiments, collected TQIs and SQIs are statistically valid, statistically significant, consistent across maps and in agreement with theoretical expectations, visual (qualitative) evidence and quantitative quality indexes of operativeness (OQIs) claimed for SIAMT by related papers. As a subsidiary conclusion, the statistically consistent and statistically significant accuracy validation of the SIAMT pre-classification maps proposed in this contribution, together with OQIs claimed for SIAMT by related works, make the operational (automatic, accurate, near real-time, robust, scalable) SIAMT software product eligible for opening up new inter-disciplinary research and market opportunities in accordance with the visionary goal of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) initiative and the QA4EO international guidelines.

Radiocarbon dating of peat profiles from the subarctic ecoclimatic region, west-central Canada

Long-term vegetation succession and permafrost dynamics in subarctic peat plateaus of west-central Canada have been studied through detailed plant macrofossil analysis and extensive AMS radiocarbon dating of two peat profiles. Peatland inception at these sites occurred around 5800-5100 yr BP (6600-5900 cal. BP) as a result of paludification of upland forests. At the northern peat plateau site, located in the continuous permafrost zone, palaeobotanical evidence suggests that permafrost was already present under the forested upland prior to peatland development. Paludification was initiated by permafrost collapse, but re-aggradation of permafrost occurred soon after peatland inception. At the southern site, located in the discontinuous permafrost zone, the aggradation of permafrost occurred soon after peatland inception. In the peat plateaus, permafrost conditions have remained very stable until present. Sphagnum fuscum-dominated stages have alternated with more xerophytic communities characterized by ericaceous shrubs. Local peat fires have occurred, but most of these did not cause degradation of the permafrost. Starting from 2800-1100 yr BP (2900-1000 cal. BP) consistently dry surface conditions have prevailed, possibly related to continued frost heave or nearby polygon crack formation.