Framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems

Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. The model can be run with the use of GeNIe software package. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.

(Table 2) Seroprevalence against Trichinella spp. in Ursus maritimus from Svalbard and Barents Sea pack ice

Blood samples of live-caught polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Svalbard collected 1991-2000 (Period 1) and 2006-2008 (Period 2) and from the pack ice of the Barents Sea collected in Period 1, were assayed for antibodies against Trichinella spp. by ELISA. Of 54 cubs-of-the-year included in the Period 1 sample, 53 were seronegative, indicating that exposure to Trichinella infected meat is uncommon during the first months of life for polar bears in the Svalbard region. Of 30 mother-offspring pairs, 18 mothers were seropositive with seronegative offspring (n = 27), suggesting (1) that maternal antibodies had dropped to levels below detection limit by the time of capture in April (offspring approximately 4 months old), and (2) supporting experimental studies in other animal models showing that vertical transmission of Trichinella spp. is uncommon. Bear 1 year and older had higher prevalence in Svalbard (78%) than in the Barents Sea (51%). There was no temporal change in prevalence for bears from Svalbard during the time between the two periods. The prevalence increased with age in both sexes. A positive correlation was found between anti-Toxoplasma gondii and anti-Trichinella spp. antibodies.

(Table 1) Chlorophyll a content and microalgae abundance and biovolume in pack ice in the Bellingshausen Sea

Pack ice in the Bellingshausen Sea contained moderate to high stocks of microalgal biomass (3-10 mg Chl a/m**2) spanning the range of general sea-ice microalgal microhabitats (e.g., bottom, interior and surface) during the International Polar Year (IPY) Sea Ice Mass Balance in the Antarctic (SIMBA) studies. Measurements of irradiance above and beneath the ice as well as optical properties of the microalgae therein demonstrated that absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by particulates (microalgae and detritus) had a substantial influence on attenuation of PAR and irradiance transmission in areas with moderate snow covers (0.2-0.3 m) and more moderate effects in areas with low snow cover. Particulates contributed an estimated 25 to 90% of the attenuation coefficients for the first-year sea ice at wavelengths less than 500 nm. Strong ultraviolet radiation (UVR) absorption by particulates was prevalent in the ice habitats where solar radiation was highest - with absorption coefficients by ice algae often being as large as that of the sea ice. Strong UVR-absorption features were associated with an abundance of dinoflagellates and a general lack of diatoms - perhaps suggesting UVR may be influencing the structure of some parts of the sea-ice microbial communities in the pack ice during spring. We also evaluated the time-varying changes in the spectra of under-ice irradiances in the austral spring and showed dynamics associated with changes that could be attributed to coupled changes in the ice thickness (mass balance) and microalgal biomass. All results are indicative of radiation-induced changes in the absorption properties of the pack ice and highlight the non-linear, time-varying, biophysical interactions operating within the Antarctic pack ice ecosystem.

(Tables 1-3) Amphipod species observed under Antarctic pack ice during POLARSTERN cruises ANT-XXI/4, ANT-XXII/2 and ANT-XXIII/6

During three Antarctic expeditions (2004, ANT XXI-4 and XXII-2; 2006, ANT XXIII-6) with the German research icebreaker R/V Polarstern, six different amphipod species were recorded under the pack ice of the Weddell Sea and the Lazarev Sea. These cruises covered Austral autumn (April), summer (December) and winter (August) situations, respectively. Five of the amphipod species recorded here belong to the family Eusiridae (Eusirus antarcticus, E. laticarpus, E. microps, E. perdentatus and E. tridentatus), while the last belongs to the Lysianassidea, genus Cheirimedon (cf. femoratus). Sampling was performed by a specially designed under-ice trawl in the Lazarev Sea, whereas in the Weddell Sea sampling was done by scuba divers and deployment of baited traps. In the Weddell Sea, individuals of E. antarcticus and E. tridentatus were repeatedly observed in situ during under-ice dives, and single individuals were even found in the infiltration layer. Also in aquarium observations, individuals of E. antarcticus and E. tridentatus attached themselves readily to sea ice. Feeding experiments on E. antarcticus and E. tridentatus indicated a carnivorous diet. Individuals of the Lysianassoid Cheirimedon were only collected in baited traps there. Repeated conventional zooplankton hauls performed in parallel to this study did not record any of these amphipods from the water column. In the Lazarev Sea, E. microps, E. perdentatus and E. laticarpus were regularly found in under-ice trawls. We discuss the origin and possible sympagic life style of these amphipods.

Meteorological measurements from 8 dropsondes released during POLAR 4 flight on 1993-03-04 along a track orthogonal to the pack ice edge north west of Svalbard

Different parameterizations of subgrid-scale fluxes are utilized in a nonhydrostatic and anelastic mesoscale model to study their influence on simulated Arctic cold air outbreaks. A local closure, a profile closure and two nonlocal closure schemes are applied, including an improved scheme, which is based on other nonlocal closures. It accounts for continuous subgrid-scale fluxes at the top of the surface layer and a continuous Prandtl number with respect to stratification. In the limit of neutral stratification the improved scheme gives eddy diffusivities similar to other parameterizations, whereas for strong unstable stratifications they become much larger and thus turbulent transports are more efficient. It is shown by comparison of model results with observations that the application of simple nonlocal closure schemes results in a more realistic simulation of a convective boundary layer than that of a local or a profile closure scheme. Improvements are due to the nonlocal formulation of the eddy diffusivities and to the inclusion of heat transport, which is independent of local gradients (countergradient transport).