Eocene-Oligocene calcareous nannofossils from ODP sites 115-711 and 120-748 in the Indian Ocean

An Eocene-Oligocene calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphic framework for Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 748 in the southern Indian Ocean is established, which provides a foundation for this and future quantitative biogeographic studies. This biostratigraphic analysis, together with quantitative nannofossil data, enables a reinterpretation of the preliminary magnetostratigraphy and a new placement for magnetic Subchron CBN in the lowermost Oligocene. Calcareous nannofossil species diversity is low at Site 748 relative to lower latitude sites, with about 13 taxa in the middle Eocene, gradually decreasing to about 6 in the late Oligocene. There is, however, no apparent mass extinction at any stratigraphic level. Similarly, no mass extinctions were recorded at or near the Eocene/Oligocene boundary at Site 711 in the equatorial Indian Ocean. Species diversity at the equatorial site is significantly higher than at Site 748, with a maximum of 39 species in the middle Eocene and a minimum of 14 species in the late Oligocene. The abundance patterns of nannofossil taxa are also quite different at the two sites, with chiasmoliths, Isthmolithus recurvus, and Reticulofenestra daviesii abundant and restricted to the high-latitude site and Coccolithus formosus, discoasters, and sphenoliths abundant at the equatorial site but impoverished at the high-latitude site. This indicates a significant latitudinal biogeographic gradient between the equatorial site and the high-latitude site in the Indian Ocean for the middle Eocene-Oligocene interval. The abundance change of warm-water taxa is similar to that of species diversity at Site 711. There is a general trend of decreasing abundance of warm-water taxa from the middle Eocene through the early Oligocene at Site 711, suggesting a gradual cooling of the surface waters in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The abundance of warm-water taxa increased in the late Oligocene, in association with an increase in species diversity, and this may reflect a warming of the surface waters in the late Oligocene. An abrupt increase in the abundance of cool-water taxa (from ~20% to over 90%) occurred from 36.3 to 35.9 Ma at high-latitude Site 748. Coincident with this event was a ~1.0 per mil positive shift in the delta18O value of planktonic foraminifers and the occurrence of ice-rafted debris. This abrupt change in the nannofossil population is a useful biostratigraphic event for locating the bottom of magnetic Subchron C13N in the Southern Ocean. The sharp increase in cool-water taxa coeval with a large positive shift in delta18O values suggests that the high-latitude surface waters drastically cooled around 36.3-35.9 Ma. The temperature drop is estimated to be 4°C or more at Site 748 based on the nannofossil population change relative to the latitudinal biogeographic gradient established in the South Atlantic Ocean during previous studies. Consequently, much of the delta18O increase at Site 748 appears to be due to a temperature drop in the high latitudes rather than an ice-volume signal. The ~0.1 per mil delta18O increase not accounted for by the temperature drop is attributed to an ice-volume increase of 4.6 * 10**3 km**3, or 20% the size of the present Antarctic ice sheet.

Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Effects of ocean acidification on population dynamics and community structure of crustose coralline algae

Calcification and growth of crustose coralline algae (CCA) are affected by elevated seawater pCO2 and associated changes in carbonate chemistry. However, the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on population and community-level responses of CCA have barely been investigated. We explored changes in community structure and population dynamics (size structure and reproduction) of CCA in response to OA. Recruited from an experimental flow-through system, CCA settled onto the walls of plastic aquaria and developed under exposure to one of three pCO2 treatments (control [present day, 389±6 ppm CO2], medium [753±11 ppm], and high [1267±19 ppm]). Elevated pCO2 reduced total CCA abundance and affected community structure, in particular the density of the dominant species Pneophyllum sp. and Porolithon onkodes. Meanwhile, the relative abundance of P. onkodes declined from 24% under control CO2 to 8.3% in high CO2 (65% change), while the relative abundance of Pneophyllum sp. remained constant. Population size structure of P. onkodes differed significantly across treatments, with fewer larger individuals under high CO2. In contrast, the population size structure and number of reproductive structures (conceptacles) per crust of Pneophyllum sp. was similar across treatments. The difference in the magnitude of the response of species abundance and population size structure between species may have the potential to induce species composition changes in the future. These results demonstrate that the impacts of OA on key coral reef builders go beyond declines in calcification and growth, and suggest important changes to aspects of population dynamics and community ecology.

Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8 °C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by 20-50% depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more uniform response was detected at pH 7.1 with most of the strains exhibiting reduced growth rates by 20-37% compared to pH 8.0. It should be emphasized that a significant interaction between temperature and pH was found, meaning that the combination of the two parameters affected growth differently than when considering one at a time. Based on these results, we anticipate that the polar diatom F. cylindrus will be unaffected by changes in temperature and pH within the range expected by the end of the century. In each simulated scenario, the variation in growth rates among the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms of temperature and pH tolerance towards future conditions, dominating the population.