Model experiment on optimal size of a fish stock with environmental uncertainties

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the 'convex-cost effect' and the 'gambling effect'. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.

Experiment: Growth rates and percentages of normal versus malformed versus incomplete versus incomplete and malformed coccoliths

The coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi (Lohmann) W. W. Hay et H. Mohler was cultured in natural seawater with the addition of either the microtubule-inhibitor colchicine, the actin-inhibitor cytochalasin B, or the photosynthesis inhibitor 3-(3,4 dichlorophenyl)-1,1-dimethyl-urea (DCMU). Additionally, E. huxleyi was cultured at different light intensities and temperatures. Growth rate was monitored, and coccolith morphology analyzed. While every treatment affected growth rate, the percentage of malformed coccoliths increased with colchicine, cytochalasin B, and at higher than optimal temperature. These results represent the first experimental evidence for the role of microtubules and actin microfilaments in coccolith morphogenesis.

Mesocosm experiment 2012 on warming and acidification effects on phytoplankton biomass and chemical composition

We investigated the impacts of predicted ocean acidification and future warming on the quantity and nutritional quality of a natural phytoplankton autumn bloom in a mesocosm experiment. Since the effects of CO2-enrichment and temperature have usually been studied independently, we were also interested in the interactive effects of both aspects of climate change. Therefore, we used a factorial design with two temperature and two acidification levels in a mesocosm experiment with a Baltic Sea phytoplankton community. Our results show a significant time-dependent influence of warming on phytoplankton carbon, chlorophyll a as well as POC. Phytoplankton carbon for instance decreased by more than a half with increasing temperature at bloom time. Additionally, elemental carbon to phosphorus ratios (C:P) increased significantly by approximately 5-8 % under warming. Impacts of CO2 or synergetic effects of warming and acidification could not be detected. We suggest that temperature-induced stronger grazing pressure was responsible for the significant decline in phytoplankton biomass. Our results suggest that biological effects of warming on Baltic Sea phytoplankton are considerable and will likely have fundamental consequences for the trophic transfer in the pelagic food-web.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and larval growth response of the Portuguese oyster (Crassostrea angulata) in a laboratory experiment

Rising anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) dissolving into coastal waters is decreasing the pH and carbonate ion concentration, thereby lowering the saturation state of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) minerals through a process named ocean acidification (OA). The unprecedented threats posed by such low pH on calcifying larvae of several edible oyster species have not yet been fully explored. Effects of low pH (7.9, 7.6, 7.4) on the early growth phase of Portuguese oyster (Crassostrea angulata) veliger larvae was examined at ambient salinity (34 ppt) and the low-salinity (27 ppt) treatment. Additionally, the combined effect of pH (8.1, 7.6), salinity (24 and 34 ppt) and temperature (24 °C and 30 °C) was examined using factorial experimental design. Surprisingly, the early growth phase from hatching to 5-day-old veliger stage showed high tolerance to pH 7.9 and pH 7.6 at both 34 ppt and 27 ppt. Larval shell area was significantly smaller at pH 7.4 only in low-salinity. In the 3-factor experiment, shell area was affected by salinity and the interaction between salinity and temperature but not by other combinations. Larvae produced the largest shell at the elevated temperature in low-salinity, regardless of pH. Thus the growth of the Portuguese oyster larvae appears to be robust to near-future pH level (> 7.6) when combined with projected elevated temperature and low-salinity in the coastal aquaculture zones of South China Sea.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and maximum growth rates of Skeletonema marinoi and Alexandrium ostenfeldii, toxin composition of Alexandrium ostenfeldii in a laboratory experiment

Phytoplankton populations can display high levels of genetic diversity that, when reflected by phenotypic variability, may stabilize a species response to environmental changes. We studied the effects of increased temperature and CO2 availability as predicted consequences of global change, on 16 genetically different isolates of the diatom Skeletonema marinoi from the Adriatic Sea and the Skagerrak (North Sea), and on eight strains of the PST (paralytic shellfish toxin)-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii from the Baltic Sea. Maximum growth rates were estimated in batch cultures of acclimated isolates grown for five to 10 generations in a factorial design at 20 and 24 °C, and present day and next century applied atmospheric pCO2, respectively. In both species, individual strains were affected in different ways by increased temperature and pCO2. The strongest response variability, buffering overall effects, was detected among Adriatic S. marinoi strains. Skagerrak strains showed a more uniform response, particularly to increased temperature, with an overall positive effect on growth. Increased temperature also caused a general growth stimulation in A. ostenfeldii, despite notable variability in strain-specific response patterns. Our data revealed a significant relationship between strain-specific growth rates and the impact of pCO2 on growth-slow growing cultures were generally positively affected, while fast growing cultures showed no or negative responses to increased pCO2. Toxin composition of A. ostenfeldii was consistently altered by elevated temperature and increased CO2 supply in the tested strains, resulting in overall promotion of saxitoxin production by both treatments. Our findings suggest that phenotypic variability within populations plays an important role in the adaptation of phytoplankton to changing environments, potentially attenuating short-term effects and forming the basis for selection. In particular, A. ostenfeldii blooms may expand and increase in toxicity under increased water temperature and atmospheric pCO2 conditions, with potentially severe consequences for the coastal ecosystem.

Swift thermal reaction norm evolution in a key coccolithopore species: Reaction norm assay data from an experiment in Kiel from December 2012 to June 2015

Temperature has a profound effect on the species composition and physiology of marine phytoplankton, a polyphyletic group of microbes responsible for half of global primary production. Here, we ask whether and how thermal reaction norms in a key calcifying species, the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, change as a result of 2.5 years of experimental evolution to a temperature about 2°C below its upper thermal limit. Replicate experimental populations derived from a single genotype isolated from Norwegian coastal waters were grown at two temperatures for 2.5 years before assessing thermal responses at 6 temperatures ranging from 15 to 26°C, with pCO2 (400/1100/2200 ?atm) as a fully factorial additional factor. The two selection temperatures (15°/26.3°C) led to a marked divergence of thermal reaction norms. Optimal growth temperatures were 0.7°C higher in experimental populations selected at 26.3°C than those selected at 15.0°C. An additional negative effect of high pCO2 on maximal growth rate (8% decrease relative to lowest level) was observed. Finally, the maximum persistence temperature (Tmax) differed by 1-3°C between experimental treatments, as a result of an interaction between pCO2 and the temperature selection. Taken together, we demonstrate that several attributes of thermal reaction norms in phytoplankton may change faster than the predicted progression of ocean warming.

Impact of ocean acidification and warming on the Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis)

In order to assess the effects of ocean acidification and warming on the Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis), specimens were reared in aquarium tanks and exposed to elevated conditions of temperature (+3°C) and acidity (-0.3 pH units) for a period of 10 months. The whole system comprised a factorial experimental design with 4 treatments (3 aquaria per treatment): control, lowered pH, elevated temperature, and lowered pH/elevated temperature. Mortality was estimated on a weekly basis and every 2 months, various biometrical parameters and physiological processes were measured: somatic and shell growth, metabolic rates and body fluid acid-base parameters. Mussels were highly sensitive to warming, with 100% mortality observed under elevated temperature at the end of our experiment in October. Mortality rates increased drastically in summer, when water temperature exceeded 25°C. In contrast, our results suggest that survival of this species will not be affected by a pH decrease of 0.3 in the Mediterranean Sea. Somatic and shell growth did not appear very sensitive to ocean acidification and warming during most of the experiment, but were reduced, after summer, in the lowered pH treatment. This was consistent with measured shell net dissolution and observed loss of periostracum, as well as uncompensated extracellular acidosis in the lowered pH treatment indicating a progressive insufficiency in acid-base regulation capacity. However, based on the present dataset, we cannot elucidate if these decreases in growth and regulation capacities after summer are a consequence of lower pH levels during that period or a consequence of a combined effect of acidification and warming. To summarize, while ocean acidification will potentially contribute to lower growth rates, especially in summer when mussels are exposed to sub-optimal conditions, ocean warming will likely pose more serious threats to Mediterranean mussels in this region in the coming decades.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and processes during an experiment with coral reef, 2000

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is projected to reach twice the preindustrial level by the middle of the 21st century. This increase will reduce the concentration of [CO3]2- of the surface ocean by 30% relative to the preindustrial level and will reduce the calcium carbonate saturation state of the surface ocean by an equal percentage. Using the large 2650 m3 coral reef mesocosm at the BIOSPHERE-2 facility near Tucson, Arizona, we investigated the effect of the projected changes in seawater carbonate chemistry on the calcification of coral reef organisms at the community scale. Our experimental design was to obtain a long (3.8 years) time series of the net calcification of the complete system and all relevant physical and chemical variables (temperature, salinity, light, nutrients, Ca2+,pCO2, TCO2, and total alkalinity). Periodic additions of NaHCO3, Na2CO3, and/or CaCl2 were made to change the calcium carbonate saturation state of the water. We found that there were consistent and reproducible changes in the rate of calcification in response to our manipulations of the saturation state. We show that the net community calcification rate responds to manipulations in the concentrations of both Ca2+ and [CO3]2- and that the rate is well described as a linear function of the ion concentration product, [Ca2+]0.69[[CO3]2-]. This suggests that saturation state or a closely related quantity is a primary environmental factor that influences calcification on coral reefs at the ecosystem level. We compare the sensitivity of calcification to short-term (days) and long-term (months to years) changes in saturation state and found that the response was not significantly different. This indicates that coral reef organisms do not seem to be able to acclimate to changing saturation state. The predicted decrease in coral reef calcification between the years 1880 and 2065 A.D. based on our long-term results is 40%. Previous small-scale, short-term organismal studies predicted a calcification reduction of 14-30%. This much longer, community-scale study suggests that the impact on coral reefs may be greater than previously suspected. In the next century coral reefs will be less able to cope with rising sea level and other anthropogenic stresses.

Calcification rate of massive Porites spp. and Porites rus in the experiment of Moorea

This study tested the hypothesis that the response of corals to temperature and pCO2 is consistent between taxa. Juvenile massive Porites spp. and branches of P. rus from the back reef of Moorea were incubated for 1 month under combinations of temperature (29.3 °C and 25.6 °C) and pCO2 (41.6 Pa and 81.5 Pa) at an irradiance of 599 µmol quanta/m/s. Using microcosms and CO2 gas mixing technology, treatments were created in a partly nested design (tanks) with two between-plot factors (temperature and pCO2), and one within-plot factor (taxon); calcification was used as a dependent variable. pCO2 and temperature independently affected calcification, but the response differed between taxa. Massive Porites spp. was largely unaffected by the treatments, but P. rus grew 50% faster at 29.3 °C compared with 25.6 °C, and 28% slower at 81.5 Pa vs. 41.6 Pa CO2. A compilation of studies placed the present results in a broader context and tested the hypothesis that calcification for individual coral genera is independent of pH, [HCO3]-, and [CO3]2-. Unlike recent reviews, this analysis was restricted to studies reporting calcification in units that could be converted to nmol CaCO3/cm**2/h. The compilation revealed a high degree of variation in calcification as a function of pH, [HCO3]-, and [CO3]2-, and supported three conclusions: (1) studies of the effects of ocean acidification on corals need to pay closer attention to reducing variance in experimental outcomes to achieve stronger synthetic capacity, (2) coral genera respond in dissimilar ways to pH, [HCO3]-, and [CO3]2-, and (3) calcification of massive Porites spp. is relatively resistant to short exposures of increased pCO2, similar to that expected within 100 y.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, fertilization and early development of the coral eating crown-of-thorns starfish, Acanthaster planci in a laboratory experiment

Outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), Acanthaster planci, contribute to major declines of coral reef ecosystems throughout the Indo-Pacific. As the oceans warm and decrease in pH due to increased anthropogenic CO2 production, coral reefs are also susceptible to bleaching, disease and reduced calcification. The impacts of ocean acidification and warming may be exacerbated by COTS predation, but it is not known how this major predator will fare in a changing ocean. Because larval success is a key driver of population outbreaks, we investigated the sensitivities of larval A. planci to increased temperature (2-4 °C above ambient) and acidification (0.3-0.5 pH units below ambient) in flow-through cross-factorial experiments (3 temperature × 3 pH/pCO2 levels). There was no effect of increased temperature or acidification on fertilization or very early development. Larvae reared in the optimal temperature (28 °C) were the largest across all pH treatments. Development to advanced larva was negatively affected by the high temperature treatment (30 °C) and by both experimental pH levels (pH 7.6, 7.8). Thus, planktonic life stages of A. planci may be negatively impacted by near-future global change. Increased temperature and reduced pH had an additive negative effect on reducing larval size. The 30 °C treatment exceeded larval tolerance regardless of pH. As 30 °C sea surface temperatures may become the norm in low latitude tropical regions, poleward migration of A. planci may be expected as they follow optimal isotherms. In the absence of acclimation or adaptation, declines in low latitude populations may occur. Poleward migration will be facilitated by strong western boundary currents, with possible negative flow-on effects on high latitude coral reefs. The contrasting responses of the larvae of A. planci and those of its coral prey to ocean acidification and warming are considered in context with potential future change in tropical reef ecosystems.

Experiment: Combined effects of CO2, temperature, irradiance and time on the physiological performance of Chondrus crispus (Rhodophyta)

In natural environments, marine biotas are exposed to a variety of simultaneously acting abiotic factors. Among these, temperature, irradiance and CO2 availability are major factors influencing the physiological performance of marine macroalgae. To test whether elevated levels of CO2 may remediate the otherwise reduced performance of uncalcified seaweeds under the influence of other stressful abiotic factors, we performed multifactorial experiments with the red alga Chondrus crispus from Helgoland (North Sea) with two levels of CO2, temperature and irradiance: low and high pCO2 levels were tested in combination with either (1) optimal and low irradiances or (2) optimal and sub-lethal high temperatures for growth. Performance of C. crispus was evaluated as biomass increase and relative growth rates (RGR), gross photosynthesis and pigment content. Acclimations of growth and photosynthesis were measured after 4 and 8 days. Acclimation time was crucial for elucidating single or combined CO2 effects on growth and photosynthesis. Signifi- cant CO2 effects became evident only in combination with either elevated temperature or reduced irradiance. Growth and photosynthesis had divergent patterns: RGR and biomass significantly increased only under a combination of high pCO2 and elevated temperature; gross photosynthesis was significantly reduced under high pCO2 conditions at low irradiance. Pigment content varied in response to irradiance and temperature, but was independent of pCO2.

Mesocosm experiment on warming and acidification effects in 2012: Microzooplankton data

Global warming and ocean acidification are among the most important stressors for aquatic ecosystems in the future. To investigate their direct and indirect effects on a near-natural plankton community, a multiple-stressor approach is needed. Hence, we set up mesocosms in a full-factorial design to study the effects of both warming and high CO2 on a Baltic Sea autumn plankton community, concentrating on the impacts on microzooplankton (MZP). MZP abundance, biomass, and species composition were analysed over the course of the experiment. We observed that warming led to a reduced time-lag between the phytoplankton bloom and an MZP biomass maximum. MZP showed a significantly higher growth rate and an earlier biomass peak in the warm treatments while the biomass maximum was not affected. Increased pCO2 did not result in any significant effects on MZP biomass, growth rate, or species composition irrespective of the temperature, nor did we observe any significant interactions between CO2 and temperature. We attribute this to the high tolerance of this estuarine plankton community to fluctuations in pCO2, often resulting in CO2 concentrations higher than the predicted end-of-century concentration for open oceans. In contrast, warming can be expected to directly affect MZP and strengthen its coupling with phytoplankton by enhancing its grazing pressure.