Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Uranium concentrations and isotope ratios Bahamas seawater and ODP holes pore-water

The geometry, timing, and rate of fluid-flow through carbonate margins and platforms is not well constrained. In this study, we use U concentrations and isotope ratios measured on small volumes of pore-water from Bahamas slope sediment, coupled with existing chlorinity data, to place constraints on the fluid-flow in this region and, by implication, other carbonate platforms. These data also allow an assessment of the behaviour of U isotopes in an unusually well constrained water-rock system. We report pore-water U concentrations which are controlled by dissolution of high-U organic material at shallow depths in the sediment and by reduction of U to its insoluble 4+ state at greater depths. The dominant process influencing pore-water (234U/238U) is alpha recoil. In Holocene sediments, the increase of pore-water (234U/238U) due to recoil provides an estimate of the horizontal flow rate of 11 cm/year, but with considerable uncertainty. At depths in the sediment where conditions are reducing, features in the U concentration and (234U/238U) profiles are offset from one another which constrains the effective diffusivity for U in these sediments to be c. 1-2 * 10**-8 cm**2/s. At depths between the Holocene and these reducing sediments, pore-water (234U/238U) values are unusually low due to a recent increase in the dissolution rate of grain surfaces. This suggests a strengthening of fluid flow, probably due to the flooding of the banks at the last deglaciation and the re-initiation of thermally-driven venting of fluid on the bank top and accompanying recharge on the slopes. Interpretation of existing chlorinity data, in the light of this change in flow rate, constrain the recent horizontal flow rate to be 10.6 ( 3.4) cm/year. Estimates of flow rate from (234U/238U) and Cl[-] are therefore in agreement and suggest flow rates close to those predicted by thermally-driven models of fluid flow. This agreement supports the idea that flow within the Bahamas Banks is mostly thermally driven and suggests that flow rates on the order of 10 cm/year are typical for carbonate platforms where such flow occurs.

Sr, Nd, and Pb isotope geochemistry of ODP Hole 104-642E

ODP Leg 104 recovered 914 m of volcanics at Site 642 on the Vøring Plateau in the Norwegian Sea. The upper series of these volcanics correlates with seaward-dipping seismic reflectors (DRS), and is tholeiitic in character. The lower series underlies the DRS and is broadly andesitic in character. Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd, and Pb isotopic analyses show that upper series samples have isotopic features characteristic of MORB, except for one dike sample that has a Pb isotopic composition that may indicate interaction of its parent magma with older continental crust. The five most silicic samples from the lower series, which occur high up in the sequence, define a 63 ± 19 Ma Rb-Sr whole-rock isochron age, and have an initial 87Sr/86Sr of 0.7116 ± 0.0004. Other lower series samples have lower initial 87Sr/86Sr, but all are greater than any upper series rock. The combined evidence of initial 87Sr/86Sr, initial epsilon-Nd values, Sm-Nd model ages, Pb isotopic compositions, and petrographic features clearly indicate that lower series rocks were derived, at least in part, from continental crustal source materials. That the DRS is underlain by rocks of continental character is an important observation, constraining models for the development of DRS-type passive continental margins.