17 resultados para Multiple-trait model

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Up to now, snow cover on Antarctic sea ice and its impact on radar backscatter, particularly after the onset of freeze/thaw processes, are not well understood. Here we present a combined analysis of in situ observations of snow properties from the landfast sea ice in Atka Bay, Antarctica, and high-resolution TerraSAR-X backscatter data, for the transition from austral spring (November 2012) to summer (January 2013). The physical changes in the seasonal snow cover during that time are reflected in the evolution of TerraSAR-X backscatter. We are able to explain 76-93% of the spatio-temporal variability of the TerraSAR-X backscatter signal with up to four snowpack parameters with a root-mean-squared error of 0.87-1.62 dB, using a simple multiple linear model. Over the complete study, and especially after the onset of early-melt processes and freeze/thaw cycles, the majority of variability in the backscatter is influenced by changes in snow/ice interface temperature, snow depth and top-layer grain size. This suggests it may be possible to retrieve snow physical properties over Antarctic sea ice from X-band SAR backscatter.

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Euphausiids constitute major biomass component in shelf ecosystems and play a fundamental role in the rapid vertical transport of carbon from the ocean surface to the deeper layers during their daily vertical migration (DVM). DVM depth and migration patterns depend on oceanographic conditions with respect to temperature, light and oxygen availability at depth, factors that are highly dependent on season in most marine regions. Changes in the abiotic conditions also shape Euphausiid metabolism including aerobic and anaerobic energy production. Here we introduce a global krill respiration model which includes the effect of latitude (LAT), the day of the year of interest (DoY), and the number of daylight hours on the day of interest (DLh), in addition to the basal variables that determine ectothermal oxygen consumption (temperature, body mass and depth) in the ANN model (Artificial Neural Networks). The newly implemented parameters link space and time in terms of season and photoperiod to krill respiration. The ANN model showed a better fit (r**2=0.780) when DLh and LAT were included, indicating a decrease in respiration with increasing LAT and decreasing DLh. We therefore propose DLh as a potential variable to consider when building physiological models for both hemispheres. We also tested for seasonality the standard respiration rate of the most common species that were investigated until now in a large range of DLh and DoY with Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) or General Additive model (GAM). GAM successfully integrated DLh (r**2= 0.563) and DoY (r**2= 0.572) effects on respiration rates of the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, yielding the minimum metabolic activity in mid-June and the maximum at the end of December. Neither the MLR nor the GAM approach worked for the North Pacific krill Euphausia pacifica, and MLR for the North Atlantic krill Meganyctiphanes norvegica remained inconclusive because of insufficient seasonal data coverage. We strongly encourage comparative respiration measurements of worldwide Euphausiid key species at different seasons to improve accuracy in ecosystem modelling.

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There is a long tradition of river monitoring using macroinvertebrate communities to assess environmental quality in Europe. A promising alternative is the use of species life-history traits. Both methods, however, have relied on the time-consuming identification of taxa. River biotopes, 1-100 m**2 'habitats' with associated species assemblages, have long been seen as a useful and meaningful way of linking the ecology of macroinvertebrates and river hydro-morphology and can be used to assess hydro-morphological degradation in rivers. Taxonomic differences, however, between different rivers had prevented a general test of this concept until now. The species trait approach may overcome this obstacle across broad geographical areas, using biotopes as the hydro-morphological units which have characteristic species trait assemblages. We collected macroinvertebrate data from 512 discrete patches, comprising 13 river biotopes, from seven rivers in England and Wales. The aim was to test whether river biotopes were better predictors of macroinvertebrate trait profiles than taxonomic composition (genera, families, orders) in rivers, independently of the phylogenetic effects and catchment scale characteristics (i.e. hydrology, geography and land cover). We also tested whether species richness and diversity were better related to biotopes than to rivers. River biotopes explained 40% of the variance in macroinvertebrate trait profiles across the rivers, largely independently of catchment characteristics. There was a strong phylogenetic signature, however. River biotopes were about 50% better at predicting macroinvertebrate trait profiles than taxonomic composition across rivers, no matter which taxonomic resolution was used. River biotopes were better than river identity at explaining the variability in taxonomic richness and diversity (40% and <=10%, respectively). Detailed trait-biotope associations agreed with independent a priori predictions relating trait categories to near river bed flows. Hence, species traits provided a much needed mechanistic understanding and predictive ability across a broad geographical area. We show that integration of the multiple biological trait approach with river biotopes at the interface between ecology and hydro-morphology provides a wealth of new information and potential applications for river science and management.

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Dating of sediment cores from the Baltic Sea has proven to be difficult due to uncertainties surrounding the 14C reservoir age and a scarcity of macrofossils suitable for dating. Here we present the results of multiple dating methods carried out on cores in the Gotland Deep area of the Baltic Sea. Particular emphasis is placed on the Littorina stage (8 ka ago to the present) of the Baltic Sea and possible changes in the 14C reservoir age of our dated samples. Three geochronological methods are used. Firstly, palaeomagnetic secular variations (PSV) are reconstructed, whereby ages are transferred to PSV features through comparison with varved lake sediment based PSV records. Secondly, lead (Pb) content and stable isotope analysis are used to identify past peaks in anthropogenic atmospheric Pb pollution. Lastly, 14C determinations were carried out on benthic foraminifera (Elphidium spec.) samples from the brackish Littorina stage of the Baltic Sea. Determinations carried out on smaller samples (as low as 4 µg C) employed an experimental, state-of-the-art method involving the direct measurement of CO2 from samples by a gas ion source without the need for a graphitisation step - the first time this method has been performed on foraminifera in an applied study. The PSV chronology, based on the uppermost Littorina stage sediments, produced ten age constraints between 6.29 and 1.29 cal ka BP, and the Pb depositional analysis produced two age constraints associated with the Medieval pollution peak. Analysis of PSV data shows that adequate directional data can be derived from both the present Littorina saline phase muds and Baltic Ice Lake stage varved glacial sediments. Ferrimagnetic iron sulphides, most likely authigenic greigite (Fe3S4), present in the intermediate Ancylus Lake freshwater stage sediments acquire a gyroremanent magnetisation during static alternating field (AF) demagnetisation, preventing the identification of a primary natural remanent magnetisation for these sediments. An inferred marine reservoir age offset (deltaR) is calculated by comparing the foraminifera 14C determinations to a PSV & Pb age model. This deltaR is found to trend towards younger values upwards in the core, possibly due to a gradual change in hydrographic conditions brought about by a reduction in marine water exchange from the open sea due to continued isostatic rebound.

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We present a 3000-yr rainfall reconstruction from the Galápagos Islands that is based on paired biomarker records from the sediment of El Junco Lake. Located in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the climate of the Galápagos Islands is governed by movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a novel method for reconstructing past ENSO- and ITCZ-related rainfall changes through analysis of molecular and isotopic biomarker records representing several types of plants and algae that grow under differing climatic conditions. We propose that ?D values of dinosterol, a sterol produced by dinoflagellates, record changes in mean rainfall in El Junco Lake, while dD values of C34 botryococcene, a hydrocarbon unique to the green alga Botryococcus braunii, record changes in rainfall associated with moderate-to-strong El Niño events. We use these proxies to infer changes in mean rainfall and El Niño-related rainfall over the past 3000 yr. During periods in which the inferred change in El Niño-related rainfall opposed the change in mean rainfall, we infer changes in the amount of ITCZ-related rainfall. Simulations with an idealized isotope hydrology model of El Junco Lake help illustrate the interpretation of these proxy reconstructions. Opposing changes in El Niño- and ITCZ-related rainfall appear to account for several of the largest inferred hydrologic changes in El Junco Lake. We propose that these reconstructions can be used to infer changes in frequency and/or intensity of El Niño events and changes in the position of the ITCZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 3000 yr. Comparison with El Junco Lake sediment grain size records indicates general agreement of inferred rainfall changes over the late Holocene.

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Interannual environmental variability in Peru is dominated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The most dramatic changes are associated with the warm El Niño (EN) phase (opposite the cold La Niña phase), which disrupts the normal coastal upwelling and affects the dynamics of many coastal marine and terrestrial resources. This study presents a trophic model for Sechura Bay, located at the northern extension of the Peruvian upwelling system, where ENSO-induced environmental variability is most extreme. Using an initial steady-state model for the year 1996, we explore the dynamics of the ecosystem through the year 2003 (including the strong EN of 1997/98 and the weaker EN of 2002/03). Based on support from literature, we force biomass of several non-trophically-mediated 'drivers' (e.g. Scallops, Benthic detritivores, Octopus, and Littoral fish) to observe whether the fit between historical and simulated changes (by the trophic model) is improved. The results indicate that the Sechura Bay Ecosystem is a relatively inefficient system from a community energetics point of view, likely due to the periodic perturbations of ENSO. A combination of high system productivity and low trophic level target species of invertebrates (i.e. scallops) and fish (i.e. anchoveta) results in high catches and an efficient fishery. The importance of environmental drivers is suggested, given the relatively small improvements in the fit of the simulation with the addition of trophic drivers on remaining functional groups' dynamics. An additional multivariate regression model is presented for the scallop Argopecten purpuratus, which demonstrates a significant correlation between both spawning stock size and riverine discharge-mediated mortality on catch levels. These results are discussed in the context of the appropriateness of trophodynamic modeling in relatively open systems, and how management strategies may be focused given the highly environmentally influenced marine resources of the region.

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Ocean acidification (OA) due to atmospheric CO2 rise is expected to influence marine primary productivity. In order to investigate the interactive effects of OA and light changes on diatoms, we grew Phaeodactylum tricornutum, under ambient (390 ppmv; LC) and elevated CO2 (1000 ppmv; HC) conditions for 80 generations, and measured its physiological performance under different light levels (60 µmol/m**2/s, LL; 200 µmol/m**2/s, ML; 460 µmol/m**2/s, HL) for another 25 generations. The specific growth rate of the HC-grown cells was higher (about 12-18%) than that of the LC-grown ones, with the highest under the ML level. With increasing light levels, the effective photochemical yield of PSII (Fv'/Fm') decreased, but was enhanced by the elevated CO2, especially under the HL level. The cells acclimated to the HC condition showed a higher recovery rate of their photochemical yield of PSII compared to the LC-grown cells. For the HC-grown cells, dissolved inorganic carbon or CO2 levels for half saturation of photosynthesis (K1/2 DIC or K1/2 CO2) increased by 11, 55 and 32%, under the LL, ML and HL levels, reflecting a light dependent down-regulation of carbon concentrating mechanisms (CCMs). The linkage between higher level of the CCMs down-regulation and higher growth rate at ML under OA supports the theory that the saved energy from CCMs down-regulation adds on to enhance the growth of the diatom.

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The present study analyses the sign, strength, and working mechanism of the vegetation-precipitation feedback over North Africa in middle (6 ka BP) and early Holocene (9 ka BP) simulations using the comprehensive coupled climate-vegetation model CCSM3-DGVM (Community Climate System Model version 3 and a dynamic global vegetation model). The coupled model simulates enhanced summer rainfall and a northward migration of the West African monsoon trough along with an expansion of the vegetation cover for the early and middle Holocene compared to the pre-industrial period. It is shown that dynamic vegetation enhances the orbitally triggered summer precipitation anomaly by approximately 20% in the Sahara-Sahel region (10-25° N, 20° W-30° E) in both the early and mid-Holocene experiments compared to their fixed-vegetation counterparts. The primary vegetation-rainfall feedback identified here operates through surface latent heat flux anomalies by canopy evaporation and transpiration and their effect on the mid-tropospheric African easterly jet, whereas the effects of vegetation changes on surface albedo and local water recycling play a negligible role. Even though CCSM3-DGVM simulates a positive vegetation-precipitation feedback in the North African region, this feedback is not strong enough to produce multiple equilibrium climate-ecosystem states on a regional scale.