10 resultados para Multiple regression

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Seasonal dynamics in the activity of Arctic shelf benthos have been the subject of few local studies, and the pronounced among-site variability characterizing their results makes it difficult to upscale and generalize their conclusions. In a regional study encompassing five sites at 100-595 m water depth in the southeastern Beaufort Sea, we found that total pigment concentrations in surficial sediments, used as proxies of general food supply to the benthos, rose significantly after the transition from ice-covered conditions in spring (March-June 2008) to open-water conditions in summer (June-August 2008), whereas sediment Chl a concentrations, typical markers of fresh food input, did not. Macrobenthic biomass (including agglutinated foraminifera >500 µm) varied significantly among sites (1.2-6.4 g C/m**2 in spring, 1.1-12.6 g C/m**2 in summer), whereas a general spring-to-summer increase was not detected. Benthic carbon remineralisation also ranged significantly among sites (11.9-33.2 mg C/m**2/day in spring, 11.6-44.4 mg C/m**2/day in summer) and did in addition exhibit a general significant increase from spring-to-summer. Multiple regression analysis suggests that in both spring and summer, sediment Chl a concentration is the prime determinant of benthic carbon remineralisation, but other factors have a significant secondary influence, such as foraminiferan biomass (negative in both seasons), water depth (in spring) and infaunal biomass (in summer). Our findings indicate the importance of the combined and dynamic effects of food supply and benthic community patterns on the carbon remineralisation of the polar shelf benthos in seasonally ice-covered seas.

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Secchi depth is a measure of water transparency. In the Baltic Sea region, Secchi depth maps are used to assess eutrophication and as input for habitat models. Due to their spatial and temporal coverage, satellite data would be the most suitable data source for such maps. But the Baltic Sea's optical properties are so different from the open ocean that globally calibrated standard models suffer from large errors. Regional predictive models that take the Baltic Sea's special optical properties into account are thus needed. This paper tests how accurately generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) with MODIS/Aqua and auxiliary data as inputs can predict Secchi depth at a regional scale. It uses cross-validation to test the prediction accuracy of hundreds of GAMs and GLMs with up to 5 input variables. A GAM with 3 input variables (chlorophyll a, remote sensing reflectance at 678 nm, and long-term mean salinity) made the most accurate predictions. Tested against field observations not used for model selection and calibration, the best model's mean absolute error (MAE) for daily predictions was 1.07 m (22%), more than 50% lower than for other publicly available Baltic Sea Secchi depth maps. The MAE for predicting monthly averages was 0.86 m (15%). Thus, the proposed model selection process was able to find a regional model with good prediction accuracy. It could be useful to find predictive models for environmental variables other than Secchi depth, using data from other satellite sensors, and for other regions where non-standard remote sensing models are needed for prediction and mapping. Annual and monthly mean Secchi depth maps for 2003-2012 come with this paper as Supplementary materials.

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Data on distribution of zoobenthos in the Kemskaya Guba (or Kemskaya Bay - the estuary of the Kem' River entering the Onega Bay of the White Sea), which is strongly influenced by river runoff, are presented. The number of species at sampling stations varied from 4 to 65. Density of communities and zoobenthos biomass varied from 342±68 to 4293±96 #/m**2 and from 0.418±0.081 to 1975.22±494.36 g/m**2, respectively. Shannon index values varied between 1.19 to 4.7 bit/ind. At the upper part of the estuary, detritivores dominated, while in the central part and at outlets sestonophages prevailed. Changes in quantitative parameters of the zoobenthos along gradient of water salinity were traced, and relations of these parameters with seven other environmental factors were revealed. It was found that species composition, biodiversity, and trophic structure of the zoobenthos significantly correlated with some of parameters mentioned above. Multiple regression analysis was used to assess combined effect of factors, and it revealed which of them played a determining role in Kemskaya Guba: for species composition - depth, water color, and total concentration of suspended matter; for number of species - contents of <0.01 mm grain size (pelite) fraction and organic carbon in bottom sediments. Biomass depended on water salinity, water chromaticity, and organic carbon contents in bottom sediments and suspended matter. Values of the Shannon index of diversity are determined by water color, and contents of organic carbon and pelite fraction in bottom sediments. Calculations of ecological stress values revealed two zones with unstable state of the zoobenthos.

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Aim: To investigate shell size variation among gastropod faunas of fossil and recent long-lived European lakes and discuss potential underlying processes. Location: 23 long-lived lakes of the Miocene to Recent of Europe. Methods: Based on a dataset of 1412 species of both fossil and extant lacustrine gastropods, we assessed differences in shell size in terms of characteristics of the faunas (species richness, degree of endemism, differences in family composition) and the lakes (surface area, latitude and longitude of lake centroid, distance to closest neighbouring lake) using multiple and linear regression models. Because of a strong species-area relationship, we used resampling to determine whether any observed correlation is driven by that relationship. Results: The regression models indicated size range expansion rather than unidirectional increase or decrease as the dominant pattern of size evolution. The multiple regression models for size range and maximum and minimum size were statistically significant, while the model with mean size was not. Individual contributions and linear regressions indicated species richness and lake surface area as best predictors for size changes. Resampling analysis revealed no significant effects of species richness on the observed patterns. The correlations are comparable across families of different size classes, suggesting a general pattern. Main conclusions: Among the chosen variables, species richness and lake surface area are the most robust predictors of shell size in long-lived lake gastropods. Although the most outstanding and attractive examples for size evolution in lacustrine gastropods derive from lakes with extensive durations, shell size appears to be independent of the duration of the lake as well as longevity of a species. The analogue of long-lived lakes as 'evolutionary islands' does not hold for developments of shell size because different sets of parameters predict size changes.

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Beryllium 10 concentrations (10Becon) were measured at annual resolution from varved sediment cores of Lakes Tiefer See (TSK) and Czechowskie (JC) for the period 1983-2009 (~solar cycles 22 and 23). Calibrating the 10Becon time-series against complementing proxy records from the same archive as well as local precipitation and neutron monitor data, reflecting solar forced changes in atmospheric radionuclide production, allowed (i) identifying the main depositional processes and (ii) evaluating the potential for solar activity reconstruction. 10Becon in TSK and JC sediments are significantly correlated to varying neutron monitor counts (TSK: r=0.5, p=0.05, n=16; JC: r=0.46, p=0.03, n=22). However, the further correlations with changes in organic carbon contents in TSK as well as varying organic carbon and detrital matter contents in JC point to catchment specific biases in the 10Becon time-series. In an attempt to correct for these biases multiple regression analysis was applied to extract an atmospheric 10Be production signal (10Be atmosphere). To increase the signal to noise ratio a 10Be composite record (10Be composite) was calculated from the TSK and JC 10Be atmosphere time-series. 10Becomposite is significantly correlated to variations in the neutron monitor record (r=0.49, p=0.01, n=27) and matches the expected amplitude changes in 10Be production between solar cycle minima and maxima. This calibration study on 10Be from two sites indicates the large potential but also, partly site-specific, limitations of 10Be in varved lake sediments for solar activity reconstruction.

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During Ocean Drilling Program Leg 199 in the equatorial Pacific, visible and near-infrared spectroscopy (VNIS) was used to measure the reflectance spectra (350-2500 nm) of 1343 sediment samples. Reflectance spectra were also measured for a suite of 60 samples of known mineralogy, thereby providing a local ground-truth calibration of spectral features to percentages of calcite, opal, smectite, and illite. The associated algorithm was used to calculate mineral percentages from the 1343 spectra. Using multiple regression and VNIS mineralogy, multisensor track physical properties and light spectroscopy data were then converted into continuous high-resolution mineralogy logs.

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In order to reconstruct past variations in the aeolian dust (Kosa) contribution to the Japan Sea, and to establish a direct link between terrestrial and marine climatic records, we have applied statistical procedures to distinguish and quantify detrital subcomponents within the detrital fraction of the late Quaternary hemipelagic sediments in the Japan Sea. Q-mode factor analysis with varimax and oblique rotation of the factors followed by multiple-regression analysis between mineral composition and factor loadings was conducted using six ''detrital'' elements. Four detrital subcomponents were defined, which are attributed to Kosa derived from ''typical'' loess, Kosa from ''weathered'' loess, and fine and coarse arc-derived detritus, respectively, based on comparisons with the chemical and mineral compositions of probable source materials. Using these detrital subcomponents, the variation in Kosa fraction was reconstructed for the last 200 ky. The results reveal millennial-scale as well as glacial-interglacial scale variations in Kosa contribution. Especially, millennial-scale variability of Kosa contribution suggests the presence of high frequency variation in summer monsoon precipitation in the central to east Asia during the last 200 ky.

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Changes in surface water hydrography in the Southern Ocean (eastern Atlantic sector) could be reconstructed on the basis of isotope-geochemical and micropaleontological studies. A total of 75 high quality multicorer sediment surface samples from the southern South Atlantic Ocean and three Quaternary sediment cores, taken on a meridional transect across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, have been investigated. The results of examining stable oxygen isotope compositions of 24 foraminiferal species and morphotypes were compared to the near-surface hydrography. The different foraminifera have been divided into four groups living at different depths in the upper water column. The 8180 differences between shallow-living (e.g. G. bulloides, N. pachyderma) and deeper-dwelling (e. g. G. inflata) species reflect the measured temperature gradient of the upper 250 m in the water column. Thus, the 6180 difference between shallow-living and deeper-living foraminifera can be used as an indicator for the vertical temperature gradient in the surface water of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which is independent of ice volume. All planktonic foraminifera in the surface sediment samples have been counted. 27 species and morphotypes have been selected, to form a reference data Set for statistical purposes. By using R- and Q-mode principal component analysis these planktonic foraminifera have been divided into four and five assemblages, respectively. The geographic distribution of these assemblages is mainly linked to the temperature of sea-surface waters. The five assemblages (factors) of the Q-mode principal component analysis account for 97.l % of the variance of original data. Following the transferfunction- technique a multiple regression between the Q-mode factors and the actual mean sea-surface environmental parameters resulted in a set of equations. The new transfer function can be used to estimate past sea-surface seasonal temperatures for paleoassemblages of planktonic foraminifera with a precision of approximately ±1.2°C. This transfer function F75-27-5 encompasses in particular the environmental conditions in the Atlantic sector of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. During the last 140,000 years reconstructed sea-surface temperatures fluctuated in the present northern Subantarctic Zone (PS2076-1/3) at an amplitude of up to 7.5°C in summer and of up to 8.5°C in winter. In the present Polarfrontal Zone (PS1754-1) these fluctuations between glacials and interglacials show lower temperatures from 2.5 to 8.5°C in summer and from 1.0 to 5.0°C in winter, respectively. Compared to today, calculated oxygen isotope temperature gradients in the present Subantarctic Zone were lower during the last 140,000 years. This is an indicator for a good mixing of the upper water column. In the Polarfrontal Zone also lower oxygen isotope temperature gradients were found for the glacials 6, 4 and 2. But almost similar temperature gradients as today were found during the interglacial stages 5, 3 and the Holocene, which implicates a mixing of the upper water column compared to present. Paleosalinities were reconstructed by combining d18O-data and the evaluated transfer function paleotemperatures. Especially in the present Polarfrontal Zone (PS1754-1) and in the Antarctic Zone (PS1768-8), a short-term reduction of salinity up to 4 %o, could be detected. This significant reduction in sea-surface water salinity indicates the increased influx of melt-water at the beginning of deglaciation in the southern hemisphere at the end of the last glacial, approximately 16,500-13,000 years ago. The reconstruction of environmental Parameters indicates only small changes in the position of the frontal Systems in the eastern sector of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current during the last 140,000 years. The average position of the Subtropical Front and Subantarctic Front shifted approximately three latitudes between interglacials and glacials. The Antarctic Polar Front shifted approximately four latitudes. But substantial modifications of this scenario have been interpreted for the reconstruction of cold sea-surface temperatures at 41Â S during the oxygen isotope stages 16 and 14 to 12. During these times the Subtropical Front was probably shified up to seven latitudes northwards.

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We provide a reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 from deep-sea sediments, for the past 625000 years (Milankovitch chron). Our database consists of a Milankovitch template of sea-level variation in combination with a unique data set for the deep-sea record for Ontong Java plateau in the western equatorial Pacific. We redate the Vostok ice-core data of Barnola et al. (1987, doi:10.1038/329408a0). To make the reconstructions we employ multiple regression between deep-sea data, on one hand, and ice-core CO2 data in Antarctica, on the other. The patterns of correlation suggest that the main factors controlling atmospheric CO2 can be described as a combination of sea-level state and sea-level change. For best results squared values of state and change are used. The square-of-sea-level rule agrees with the concept that shelf processes are important modulators of atmospheric CO2 (e.g., budgets of shelf organic carbon and shelf carbonate, nitrate reduction). The square-of-change rule implies that, on short timescales, any major disturbance of the system results in a temporary rise in atmospheric CO2.

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Sixty surface sediment samples from the eastern South Atlantic Ocean including the Walvis Ridge, the Angola and Cape basins, and the Southwest African continental margin were analysed for their benthic foraminiferal content to unravel faunal distribution patterns and ecological preferences. Live (stained with Rose Bengal) and dead faunas were counted separately and then each grouped by Q-mode principal component analysis into seven principal faunal end-members. Then, multiple regression technique was used to correlate Recent assemblages with available environmental variables and to finally differentiate between four principal groups of environmental agents acting upon the generation of benthic foraminiferal assemblages: (1) seasonality of food supply and organic carbon flux rates, together with oxygen content in the pore and bottom waters; (2) lateral advection of deep-water masses; (3) bottom water carbonate corrosiveness; and (4) energetic state at the benthic boundary layer and grain size composition of the substrate. Food supply and corresponding dissolved oxygen contents in the pore and bottom waters turned out to be the most important factors which control the distribution pattern of the Recent benthic foraminifera. At the continental margin, in the zone of coastal upwelling and its mixing area, benthic foraminiferal assemblages are dominated by stenobathic high-productivity faunas, characterized by elevated standing stocks, low diversities and a large number of endobenthic living species. At the continental shelf and upper continental slope the live assemblages are characterized by Rectuvigerina cylindrica, Uvigerina peregrina s.1., Uvigerina auberiana and Rhizammina spp. while the dead assemblages are characterized by Cassidulina laevigata, Bolivina dilatata, Bulimina costata and B. mexicana. At the lower continental slope strong influence of high organic matter fluxes on the species composition is restricted to the area off the Cunene river mouth, where the live assemblage is dominated by Uvigerina peregrina s.1., the corresponding dead assemblage by Melonis barleeanum and M. zaandamae. In the adjacent areas of the lower continental slope the biocoenosis is characterized by Reophax bilocularis, and Epistominella exigua which becomes dominant in the corresponding dead assemblage. At the Walvis Ridge and in the abyssal Angola and Cape basins, where organic matter fluxes are low and highly seasonal, benthic foraminiferal assemblages reflect both the oligotrophic situation and the deep and bottom water mass configuration. The top and flanks of the Walvis Ridge are inhabited by the Rhizammina, Psammosphaera and R. bilocularis live assemblages, the corresponding dead assemblages are dominated by G. subglobosa on the ridge top and E. exigua on the flanks. Within the highly diverse E. exigua dead assemblage several associated epibenthic species coincide with the core of NADW between about 1600 and 3700 m water depth. These species include Osangularia culter, Cibicidoides kullenbergi, Melonis pompilioides, Bolivinita pseudothalmanni and Bulimina alazanensis. The assemblages of the abyssal Cape and Angola basins are characterized by Nuttallides umbonifer and a high proportion of agglutinated species. These species are adapted to very low organic matter fluxes and a carbonate corrosive environment.